Topic: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"

[Elmo!]

I don’t disagree on those points.

Scottish nationalism isn’t the same as English Nationalism.

But it’s still nationalism.

And nationalism is bad mm'kay.

I respect your views on here so much, but your views on 'nationalism' are about as stuck in the past as Corbyns socialism (well intentioned but not fit for the modern era).

[redbyrdz]

Even if we said that it's 50/50 between Leave/Remain the leave vote is split into loads of factions. The biggest single majority is remain, imho, and I fully believe that a 2nd ref would prove that out.

Given how things have gone in the past when we started to debate big issues and the will of the people, if you give these twats in power an inch, they'll take a fucking mile. No point starting the debate until we have the right people leading this country.

Fuck off Brexit, get a centre left party at the helm (or Labour if they can fuck off Corbyn) and then we can start to talk about the big issues affecting this country and how to solve them.

Apols, this isn't really directed as you RB, more an indiscriminate rant

I was wondering what this had to do with what I said.


I should add that I don't want to come across as supporting Brexit. I just think the 50-50 split is reality. We have tried for years to make Leavers see the error of their ways, and polls have shifted very little, and maybe mostly through demographics. And even if another referendum could be won by tactical wording of the options, or by 'splitting the Leave vote', this won't solve the deep split and feelings of resentment. We have to change tactic.

People in generally don't like to be told or persuaded. They have to realise for themselves. They have to realise that if they want a good NHS, they have to support parties that increase taxes and public spending. They have to work out that to have better jobs and wages, worker's rights have to be protected. And that the best way to decrease inequality is to work together and ensure similr standards of living in all countries. Then they might realise that they actually need the EU to achieve what they want.

Obviously, all those things are what those in power don't want people to realise.

[TepidT2O]

And nationalism is bad mm'kay.

I respect your views on here so much, but your views on 'nationalism' are about as stuck in the past as Corbyns socialism (well intentioned but not fit for the modern era).

Yes, I do think nationalism is bad.

[Elmo!]

Yes, I do think nationalism is bad.

How are you defining nationalism?

[24/7]

Just a friendly warning to keep it civil - beware........I have milkshakes........

[TepidT2O]

How are you defining nationalism?

support for independence of a nation or people

Just a friendly warning to keep it civil - beware........I have milkshakes........

Your milkshake brings all the boys to the yard surely?

[24/7]

Your milkshake brings all the boys to the yard surely?

I could teach you but then I'd have to charge.

[Elmo!]

support for independence of a nation or people
Your milkshake brings all the boys to the yard surely?

So by that definition, absolutely any independence movement is bad?

Sent from my POCOPHONE F1 using Tapatalk

[TepidT2O]

I could teach you but then I'd have to charge.

Your secret career as a gigolo is now out in public!

[TepidT2O]

So by that definition, absolutely any independence movement is bad?

Sent from my POCOPHONE F1 using Tapatalk

Caveats of course.  But not for this thread.

[24/7]

Caveats of course.  But not for this thread.

Agreed - please both move on now ta

[Elmo!]

Caveats of course.  But not for this thread.

Usual caveats apply [emoji16]

So we've established that there is nuance to it and not all 'nationalism' is bad.

[Elmo!]

Agreed - please both move on now ta

Will do, I'm off out for a curry anyway!

[Mutton Geoff]

See i want to kick this Brexit into touch!

 However i think it is still unrealistic to claim there is a majority of people in the country that would vote to remain in another referendum,

First of all the campaign would be even more brutal than the last one, and Remain didn't convince enough last time,  secondly the ones that voted out will probably vote that way again rather than admit they might have been wrong last time.

 The real brexiteers will be massively up for the fight and the lies would probably be believed yet again because some people are that gullible.
 

[Zeb]

See i want to kick this Brexit into touch!

 However i think it is still unrealistic to claim there is a majority of people in the country that would vote to remain in another referendum,

First of all the campaign would be even more brutal than the last one, and Remain didn't convince enough last time,  secondly the ones that voted out will probably vote that way again rather than admit they might have been wrong last time.

 The real brexiteers will be massively up for the fight and the lies would probably be believed yet again because some people are that gullible.
 

Agree with you Geoff. It's an awful idea with the only redeeming feature of not being quite as bad as any of the others. Which is the rub, I suppose, because what other way forward on this is there? I'd be up for just having May and Corbyn do a walk of shame and announce that they're going to crowdsource Brexit ideas for a decade or ten and meanwhile, let's just withdraw this Article 50... May as well go thermonuclear if every option causes problems.

[Ghost Town]

See i want to kick this Brexit into touch!

 However i think it is still unrealistic to claim there is a majority of people in the country that would vote to remain in another referendum,

First of all the campaign would be even more brutal than the last one, and Remain didn't convince enough last time,  secondly the ones that voted out will probably vote that way again rather than admit they might have been wrong last time.

 The real brexiteers will be massively up for the fight and the lies would probably be believed yet again because some people are that gullible.

Of course it's close to the last thing we need (the last thing is, of course, No Deal). Anyone with sense knows that revocation is the only decent option available; but if revocation simply isn't on the cards - due to people's really peculiar views about democracy and 'the will of the people' then a PV is the least worst option.

I agree it would be brutal, and I agree that Remain would need a quantum shift in their approach, not just upping their game, but a whole new game altogether.

However I am not as pessimistic about the outcome as you. I think Remain would win; maybe not as decisively as we might like, but it would win. It's even possible that a lot of Leavers might boycott the vote or do other idiotic things like that, to save face. But just the sheer horror and antipathy displayed by Leavers at the thought of a PV suggests that they know the game is up; they have peaked, and simply will not be able to fool people twice.

[No666]

However i think it is still unrealistic to claim there is a majority of people in the country that would vote to remain in another referendum, 

Keep the faith.
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/new-poll-finds-majority-back-remain-1-6031751

[OneTouchFooty]

I'm not sure about this denial about Leave/Remain polling or shitting it about another vote, poll trackers have been well into the Remain direction and rising for a long while now, miles further than they ever were during the Ref. Campaign. More people are seeing the shitshow unfold and are in numerous ways actually being affected by it and realising that the unicorns and promises aren't going to materialise, all the Facebook anti-EU propaganda in the world can't change reality.

I'm sure anecdotally you'll find those doubling down but it's a really shit way to judge the climate by who's shouting loudest and angriest. Myself I've find lots of people who didn't even bother to vote in 2016 who'd be eager to turn out for a 2nd ref to vote Remain.

[Zeb]

I'm not sure about this denial about Leave/Remain polling or shitting it about another vote, poll trackers have been well into the Remain direction and rising for a long while now, miles further than they ever were during the Ref. Campaign. More people are seeing the shitshow unfold and are in numerous ways actually being affected by it and realising that the unicorns and promises aren't going to materialise, all the Facebook anti-EU propaganda in the world can't change reality.

I'm sure anecdotally you'll find those doubling down but it's a really shit way to judge the climate by who's shouting loudest and angriest. Myself I've find lots of people who didn't even bother to vote in 2016 who'd be eager to turn out for a 2nd ref to vote Remain.

Not sure I'm shitting it about another vote, but I do see problems with a second referendum. Longer term polling has it around 53:47 in favour of Remain right now. Not many from 2016 have changed their mind, the shift is purely voters who didn't vote in 2016 saying 'remain' now. So the margin there is people who frequently don't actually get to the polls. On top of that, the margin is going to get tested by a campaign where Leave is going to go full on bullshit - as they did last time when they managed to tilt a 'remain' winning margin into a leave one just in time for the actual vote. (If you dig out John Curtice's work on it over the past couple of years, you'll see the polling is pretty steady on this.)

Another factor to consider is that 'remain' winning doesn't close the debate. Doesn't all neatly fit back into the box it came out of. So what's the plan moving forward from that? How do you get people back onto something else when there's going to be the arsehole factor seeking to whip it all back up again at every opportunity?

Not a reason not to do it but think being willing to think of how we tackle some of this would be useful if a referendum goes ahead.

[Red-Soldier]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/may/04/burberry-scraps-plans-to-build-factory-in-leeds


Burberry scraps plans to build factory in Leeds

Company’s enthusiasm for building new manufacturing site waned after Brexit vote


Burberry has scrapped plans for a new factory to produce its trademark trenchcoats in Leeds. The site had been the centrepiece of a vaunted £50m investment in its British manufacturing base.

The luxury brand announced the ambitious plan in 2015 but has now confirmed that the 4-hectare (10-acre) site in Leeds is to be sold off after several years of stalling in the wake of the Brexit vote. The scheme was the brainchild of Burberry’s last chief executive, Christopher Bailey.

The proposed factory would have enabled the company to produce the coats and the gabardine cloth they are made from under one roof. At present, they are made by an 800-strong workforce at two separate sites in Castleford and Keighley.

On Friday, Burberry’s chief operating and financial officer, Julie Brown, said: “We can confirm that we have decided to sell the land we own in central Leeds. After a detailed review, we concluded that the site is not suitable to support our plans.”

Brown said the brand, which is due to report its annual results later this month, remained “committed to Yorkshire and the UK”. She added: “As part of this, we will continue to invest in our existing manufacturing operations in Castleford and Keighley, home to our iconic Burberry Heritage trenchcoat. We will also continue to grow our shared services centre in Leeds, which opened in 2017.”


It's that Brexit dividend again!

[Ghost Town]

Another factor to consider is that 'remain' winning doesn't close the debate. Doesn't all neatly fit back into the box it came out of. So what's the plan moving forward from that? How do you get people back onto something else when there's going to be the arsehole factor seeking to whip it all back up again at every opportunity?

Not a reason not to do it but think being willing to think of how we tackle some of this would be useful if a referendum goes ahead.

Remain winning wouldn't close the debate; but nothing is going to close the debate. Pandora's Box etc; we just have to accept that this bone of contention is with us for the next generation or more

But what Remain winning would do is immediately free up Parliament to run the country properly, and force politicians to actually start tackling the problems of now, now, and give busineses the certainty to start making plans for now, now, not to mention give some certainty to all those ordinary people who don't know whether to stay or move or commence big projects like buying a house or take out loans or whatever.

Remain winning means the debate moves back to the sidelines and the backbenches and the domain of the moaners and whingers and snipers. It won't be nice, but we're already used to all that stuff, albeit it might be more intense.

Remaining might carry a political cost for various politicians and parties, but it has no legislative burden; it doesn't take up House time; it gives us a better idea of the actual state of politics in the country rather than one artificially polarised by Brexit.

There are loads of reasons why Remain winning a PV would be beneficial, even though the issue itself won't go away

[Zeb]

Remain winning wouldn't close the debate; but nothing is going to close the debate. Pandora's Box etc; we just have to accept that this bone of contention is with us for the next generation or more

But what Remain winning would do is immediately free up Parliament to run the country properly, and force politicians to actually start tackling the problems of now, now, and give busineses the certainty to start making plans for now, now, not to mention give some certainty to all those ordinary people who don't know whether to stay or move or commence big projects like buying a house or take out loans or whatever.

Remain winning means the debate moves back to the sidelines and the backbenches and the domain of the moaners and whingers and snipers. It won't be nice, but we're already used to all that stuff, albeit it might be more intense.

Remaining might carry a political cost for various politicians and parties, but it has no legislative burden; it doesn't take up House time; it gives us a better idea of the actual state of politics in the country rather than one artificially polarised by Brexit.

There are loads of reasons why Remain winning a PV would be beneficial, even though the issue itself won't go away

I'm not sure that happens as neatly as that, or at least not without cross-party buy-in. Just, for example, consider who is likely to win the next Tory leadership election and what they'd run on internally and then nationally. Not sure the old two party system will realign back in the way it was prior to Cameron trying to buy-off the Kipper vote.

[Ghost Town]

I'm not sure that happens as neatly as that, or at least not without cross-party buy-in. Just, for example, consider who is likely to win the next Tory leadership election and what they'd run on internally and then nationally. Not sure the old two party system will realign back in the way it was prior to Cameron trying to buy-off the Kipper vote.

Not quite sure what you mean. My point is that if there's another referendum, then Leave winning would mean a negotiation and legislative burden - to implement Leave requires a whole load of political and House time, as we have seen these last three years. Whereas Remain does not require that. If Remain were to win, then there'd be no excuse for politicians and the House not to get on with sorting out non Brexit issues; there'd be no Brexit-taking-up-the-timetable excuse.

That's just fact, surely?

What different individuals and parties may prefer or wish to happen further down the line is a different matter.

[Zeb]

Not quite sure what you mean. My point is that if there's another referendum, then Leave winning would mean a negotiation and legislative burden - to implement Leave requires a whole load of political and House time, as we have seen these last three years. Whereas Remain does not require that. If Remain were to win, then there'd be no excuse for politicians and the House not to get on with sorting out non Brexit issues; there'd be no Brexit-taking-up-the-timetable excuse.

That's just fact, surely?

What different individuals and parties may prefer or wish to happen further down the line is a different matter.

Parliament is closing early every day at the moment. It's not the legislative load, it's the desire to take on complex new projects because all the political bandwidth is taken up by Brexit. Revoking Article 50 only clears that if the governing party is willing (and able) to move on.

[afc tukrish]

Just a friendly warning to keep it civil - beware........I have milkshakes........

Do they bring all the boys to the yard?

[Zeb]

Simon Wren-Lewis is cross. For those who don't know him, economics professor, very Labour, tried hard to make the anti-austerity case for years, worked to help shape Labour's current economic policy, was a huge Corbyn fan til late last year.

Labour Remainers can no longer trust Corbyn not to do a deal with May

I have argued in an earlier post that it is highly unlikely that Labour could get Brexit through parliament after winning an election, because the Tories will unite to oppose it, and they together with Labour Remain MPs would defeat it. The NEC recently agreed they want a People’s Vote on any Brexit that the Labour leadership disagree with. So the only way that Labour’s current policy might allow Brexit without a People’s Vote is if the Labour leadership come to some accord with Theresa May and her government.

The general expectation has been that a deal between May and the Labour leadership on Brexit is pretty unlikely. With many senior ministers focused on who will succeed May as Prime Minister, any deal with Labour is likely to see May’s cabinet collapse. The same should apply to the Labour side. The Tories are suffering because they are totally split and take the blame for not delivering Brexit. Why would Labour want to take joint ownership of this toxic project? Even if May and Corbyn could agree, the chances of any deal getting through parliament without a People’s Vote also attached are slim.

But May has nothing to lose, and unfortunately the reality as a result of Tuesday’s NEC decision is that Labour Remainers cannot trust Corbyn over Brexit. The argument before the 2017 election that Corbyn’s stance was just triangulation, or an attempt to shift the debate on to ground where Labour have an advantage, no longer holds because opinion has shifted to Remain, and a recent UCL study shows the switchers are predominantly Labour voters. The same study shows that for Labour, at least a fifth of their voters in every region say they are going to vote for a different party – and in every region defecting voters are overwhelming plumping for parties holding a definite Remain position. As Peter Kellner points out “Labour voters in Leave areas now back Remain by a margin of more than three to one.”

The excuses for Labour’s equivocation have therefore melted away. It looks more and more that Corbyn wants to avoid an unqualified commitment to a People’s Vote because he wants the path clear to do a Brexit deal with the government. That is obviously not in the interests of Remain voters. It is also a huge hit to his brand: the leader of principle who will give power back to Labour members. Remain voters' obvious response is to vote for one of the clear Remain parties. This is what seems to have happened in the local election today, and it will happen again in the elections for the European parliament.

There are two objections to Labour voters doing this. The first, and more powerful, is that seats in the European Parliament matter, and the more left leaning MEPs there are the better. If Corbyn is unsuccessful in doing a deal with the government, or if that agreement collapses, then this is a real cost. The second argument is that not voting Labour makes it more likely Frottage will win the election. But as I have argued elsewhere, its votes not seats that matter in that election. Labour voters are going to keep forsaking their party as long as their commitment to People’s Vote is less than 100%.

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2019/05/labour-remainers-can-no-longer-trust.html

[oldfordie]

James O'Brien once again puts our politicians to shame. excellent summary of what's happened over the last few years.
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1124331359823069186

[Alan_X]

Parliament is closing early every day at the moment. It's not the legislative load, it's the desire to take on complex new projects because all the political bandwidth is taken up by Brexit. Revoking Article 50 only clears that if the governing party is willing (and able) to move on.

But if Article 50 is revoked that’s it.

[Yosser0_0]

A Brexit deal may be the silver lining to Theresa May’s local election misery

https://inews.co.uk/opinion/comment/a-brexit-deal-may-be-the-silver-lining-to-theresa-mays-local-election-misery/

In Summary:-

With so few other options on the table to break the Brexit logjam, May’s allies believe that there is little choice but to give this option a try. It’s a gamble – the problem is history shows that Mrs May rarely gets those right.

[Zeb]

But if Article 50 is revoked that’s it.

Rob Ford, at Manchester University - he's literally written the book on Kippers (well a lot of papers heh), has been posting since I wrote that.

"The deadlock makes people angry. The only possible solutions to the deadlock make people angry. Great news for populists like Frottage. Bad news for everyone else.

One problem for the main parties is that doing a compromise deal probably won’t move the agenda on from Brexit but not doing a deal definitely won’t.

Another problem is that if Frottage follows through and stands Brexit party candidates everywhere in the next GE there’s a strong chance that the underlying demographic and identity divides revealed by Brexit will continue to drive many voters choices whatever actually happens.

A third problem is that a Brexit deal may lead strong Remainers to split off too (though who they go to is an open Q for now). But the only viable way to given them what they want - another referendum - is also v likely to intensify Brexit polarisation.

Doing nothing on Brexit makes things worse. But the only viable options - deal or 2nd ref - also make things worse. Quite a pickle."

Revoking Article 50 only ends the immediate legislative process, not the political one and it's the political one which has left us with a zombie government and the prospect of, at best, a weak coalition government based on whether Labour will acquiesce to whatever the SNP want. Does that make it go away? Maybe Corbyn's Labour coming into power as part of a coalition would shut it out for a bit? That's the Owen Jones theory of it, just not convinced.

[The Gulleysucker]

.... Quite a pickle."

Pickle. Reminds of this scene.

Archie: Now about this pickle we find ourselves in. It would appear there’s only one thing left for you to do.
Dieter: And what would that be?
Archie: Stiglitz.
Hugo: Say ‘Auf Wiedersehen’ to your Nazi balls...

I'm wondering which politician plays which part though I expect the ending to probably be remarkably similar to that of the scene in the film.

[Red Beret]

Revoking Article 50 only ends the immediate legislative process, not the political one and it's the political one which has left us with a zombie government and the prospect of, at best, a weak coalition government based on whether Labour will acquiesce to whatever the SNP want. Does that make it go away? Maybe Corbyn's Labour coming into power as part of a coalition would shut it out for a bit? That's the Owen Jones theory of it, just not convinced.

Everybody knows what the solution is.  The problem is there is no political will to carry it out because politicians are running scared.  Their usual brand of all wind and piss isn't getting them anywhere because ultimately this is a decision that has to be made and they can't sweep it under the carpet.

Leavers - or at least the morons who brought us to this place - know full well that to cancel A50 and hand this over to an independent authority to investigate, advise and craft a suitable response, would almost certainly kill Brexit stone dead.  They realise it wont be a case of "we can suspend A50 and then invoke it again when we actually know what the fuck we're doing" because they know that when they get that answer nobody will want to go along with it.

[Zeb]

Everybody knows what the solution is.  The problem is there is no political will to carry it out because politicians are running scared.  Their usual brand of all wind and piss isn't getting them anywhere because ultimately this is a decision that has to be made and they can't sweep it under the carpet.

Leavers - or at least the morons who brought us to this place - know full well that to cancel A50 and hand this over to an independent authority to investigate, advise and craft a suitable response, would almost certainly kill Brexit stone dead.  They realise it wont be a case of "we can suspend A50 and then invoke it again when we actually know what the fuck we're doing" because they know that when they get that answer nobody will want to go along with it.

It's establishing the losers' consent which is the real problem. And, to be fair, let's say 'remain' lost a second referendum - remainers aren't packing up and saying 'alright then, we're out forever', it snowballs into a 'rejoin' campaign unless there's work done to bring people with the result. (Which wasn't done first time round, obviously.)  We're past a political debate on the merits, or otherwise, of pooling national sovereignty and into the stuff of how people perceive themselves and the world around them. Both party leaders are illequipped to persuade those not already in agreement. Otherwise could probably profitably point to those who successfully managed to build consensus with establishing the Welsh Assembly on a narrow referendum margin. Tories were still promising to abolish it for years after, mind.

Rob Ford goes on later in that thread to say that the party leaderships may actually be looking at an agreement as the least worst option to at least have a chance of claiming they've delivered Brexit and trying to push on to different things. (Narrator: they didn't push on to different things.)

*insert elmo shrugging gif here*

[Yosser0_0]

James O'Brien once again puts our politicians to shame. excellent summary of what's happened over the last few years.
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1124331359823069186

"Weapons grade Crystal Ball"

 

The worrying thing is the the penny still hasn't dropped with a lot of Leave voters.

[oldfordie]

"Weapons grade Crystal Ball"

 

The worrying thing is the the penny still hasn't dropped with a lot of Leave voters.

I don't think the penny will ever drop with some leave voters, they will be stirring the s,,, for many years to come even if we leave the EU, thankfully most are probably Tories or future Brexit party voters anyway.which leaves us mystified why Corbyns Labour are appeasing them while annihilating their own voters.

[Zeb]

Telegraph's Peter Foster is picking apart the Sunday Times' reporting on what May and Corbyn have been brewing in private. https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1124931924831670277

On one level it's understandable - kick the decision about the future relationship until a general election in 2022, pinky promise, but accept the withdrawal agreement now. But on every other, including the bit where we need to be negotiating with the EU and not among ourselves - let alone the prospect of trying to get such a plan through Parliament, it seems so deranged that it's almost as if it's intended to fall apart on contact with backbenchers reading it with reality having a few days off from having to intervene.

[Robinred]

Telegraph's Peter Foster is picking apart the Sunday Times' reporting on what May and Corbyn have been brewing in private. https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1124931924831670277

On one level it's understandable - kick the decision about the future relationship until a general election in 2022, pinky promise, but accept the withdrawal agreement now. But on every other, including the bit where we need to be negotiating with the EU and not among ourselves - let alone the prospect of trying to get such a plan through Parliament, it seems so deranged that it's almost as if it's intended to fall apart on contact with backbenchers reading it with reality having a few days off from having to intervene.

Interesting analysis. John Crace too, puzzled by many elements of what looks like a fudge dressed up as a ‘solution’.

What none of the political commentators seem prepared to make explicit, which surprises me, is that Corbyn isn’t calling the shots - it’s blatantly obvious it’s Milne and Murray.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/1124994825370112000?s=21

Such a fucking moron

[ShakaHislop]

https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/1124994825370112000?s=21

Such a fucking moron

To MPs, I would say this: if we are able to negotiate a cross-party agreement, this deal will be a stepping stone to a brighter future, outside the EU, where the UK can determine the road ahead.

This is because no parliament can bind its successor.

Some people would prefer a less close relationship with the EU in the future, while others would prefer a closer relationship.

The key point is, the ultimate decision-maker in everything we do is Parliament. So future parliaments, with a different party balance, will be able to decide whether they want a closer or more distant  relationship with the EU.

Her reinforcing the fears of Labour MPs of a Johnson or Rees-Mogg government tearing the Withdrawal Agreement and/or Political Declaration up is an example of the strategic masterstrokes we've come to expect from her.

[Mutton Geoff]

well if Corbyn pushes through a crap Brexit agreement to save the tories then that is my red line crossed and even though i agree with the other policies we have in place i could not support him anymore.