Poll

RAWK and Brexit

No Deal!
65 (8.8%)
Mays Deal!
14 (1.9%)
No Brexit!
538 (72.8%)
Don't Know
10 (1.4%)
Don't Care
15 (2%)
I don't live in the UK
97 (13.1%)

Total Members Voted: 739

Author Topic: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"  (Read 948061 times)

Offline Skeeve

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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #33120 on: November 19, 2019, 02:21:58 PM »
That one seems to be fake, but he's definitely somebody who would be plausibly stupid enough for it to be true though.  ;D

Offline rafathegaffa83

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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #33121 on: November 19, 2019, 02:43:26 PM »
Arron Banks having his twitter hacked and having his DMs exposed to the world is one of the funniest things I've seen in a while.

Carole Cadwalladr was probably doing the Antonio Banderas laptop gif at this news

Offline HarryLabrador

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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #33122 on: November 19, 2019, 04:10:15 PM »
Dr. Jennifer Cassidy

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Trump Impeachment Hearings are currently Live.

Aaron Banks Twitter messages are also currently Live.

Dominic Raab is caught up in the hack.

Priti Patel is caught up in the hack.

Did I mention Trump is being impeached?

This is a DAY.

7:13 AM - 19 Nov 2019

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Offline RF

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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #33123 on: November 19, 2019, 04:37:11 PM »
off to a flyer



Apparently that might be a fake.

Offline Zeb

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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #33124 on: November 25, 2019, 07:33:51 PM »
Ivan Rogers playing his Cassandra role again. Full lecture here.

Quote
Put crudely, the EU will feel that, in the time available, rather little serious work can get done, and will think that is no bad thing, as it can fully exploit UK desperation to get something over the new line. Why not take advantage of yet another Prime Minister who has unwisely boxed himself in?

They are talking up a deal, not because they have become undying fans of Brexiteers but because they can see there’s an opportunity here for something that works pretty nicely in the EU’s interest.

The U.K. will think that the overwhelming political objective is to deliver “full exit” by the end of 2020 (let’s forget the little local difficulty that you told the public that you were “getting Brexit done” the year before.)

So a quick and dirty deal, with precious little substance beyond zero tariffs and quotas has appeal, despite the economic reality that the vast majority of the barriers to trade which we need to keep dismantled are the non-tariff ones. And despite the obvious face that a tariffs and quotas only deal is obviously more in, say, French and German interests than our own

We could, as in the Spring of 2017, be on tramlines to this rather rapidly.

Put another way, the jelly will be setting on a potential endgame in 2020 as soon as the EU negotiating mandate starts to appear in print. That is now only just over 3 months from today. Reality does come at U.K Prime Ministers rather quickly these days.
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Offline DJBrenton

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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #33125 on: November 25, 2019, 08:37:08 PM »
Apparently that might be a fake.

Let's not get bogged down in details. Who's to say what's really true.
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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #33126 on: November 26, 2019, 09:41:44 AM »
Let's not get bogged down in details. Who's to say what's really true.
Was an expert on radio (BBC World) Sunday morning talking about the Tories fake fact checker and the systemic, blatant lies put out by Johnson, Trump etc. He said we are in the “post truth era”. Seems if you hear the PM say it,  the President tweet it, Facebook post it, redtops report it,  then your mind sort of triangulates this into a supposed fact (often what you want to hear) which you then post or tweet to your followers etc. So this then becomes a post truth era baseline “fact”.
Conclusion - We are doomed

Offline DJBrenton

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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #33127 on: November 26, 2019, 10:11:57 AM »
Likeability is the new credibility. If you like someone then their facts are true. If you don't like them, their facts are fake. Facts are now subjective.
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Offline Dr. Beaker

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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #33128 on: November 26, 2019, 10:17:17 AM »
People have given in to their prejudices and it feels good - fuck you and your facts.

It's the next phase of 'no such thing as society'.
« Last Edit: November 26, 2019, 10:24:52 AM by Dr. Beaker »
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Re: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"
« Reply #33129 on: November 26, 2019, 10:42:07 AM »
Likeability is the new credibility. If you like someone then their facts are true. If you don't like them, their facts are fake. Facts are now subjective.
That’s the new truth - subjective facts. Also social media give many sources of different truths which are available instantaneously, so you can get Trumps bullshit first hand (and fast) or a fake fact check as you watch the election debate. This is easy to corrupt, but very difficult to govern or control.

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Offline Andy ⁎ Allerton

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Brexit-i-a-poos! 10 Predications
« Reply #33131 on: December 10, 2019, 04:33:07 PM »
So. Assuming that the worst happens on Thursday and the Tories get a majority, what ten things do you want to predict (Might be interesting to look back on these in years to come..)

Here's my 10p worth

1. The NHS will be slowly given to the US. Within 5 years, medicines will have more than doubled in price and some people will be paying per night to use a bed
2. There will be 0 new nurses
3. There will be 0 new police
4. Fracking beyond the wildest Tory jizzfests will be occurring all over the UK. Heavy chemicals and the likes will be operating as they used to and major UK rivers will end up as polluted as they were in the 80s
5. People's Human Rights will be eroded/removed
6. People's Working Rights will be eroded/removed
7. It will take more than 5 years for a Trade-Deal and a No-Deal Brexit will happen after about a year
8. Parliament and the House of Lords will be curtailed and the Tories will make changes to ensure they can't be voted out
9. The Social System will be effectively disbanded within 5 years. People will have the same support as people in the US. No money? Get a job or die..
10. Racism and Bigotry and Intolerance will peak and continue to peak
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Offline Circa1892

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Re: Brexit-i-a-poos! 10 Predications
« Reply #33132 on: December 10, 2019, 04:36:33 PM »
I'd agree with 2,3,5,6,7 and 10.

Offline oldfordie

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Re: Brexit-i-a-poos! 10 Predications
« Reply #33133 on: December 10, 2019, 05:03:31 PM »
So. Assuming that the worst happens on Thursday and the Tories get a majority, what ten things do you want to predict (Might be interesting to look back on these in years to come..)

Here's my 10p worth

1. The NHS will be slowly given to the US. Within 5 years, medicines will have more than doubled in price and some people will be paying per night to use a bed
2. There will be 0 new nurses
3. There will be 0 new police
4. Fracking beyond the wildest Tory jizzfests will be occurring all over the UK. Heavy chemicals and the likes will be operating as they used to and major UK rivers will end up as polluted as they were in the 80s
5. People's Human Rights will be eroded/removed
6. People's Working Rights will be eroded/removed
7. It will take more than 5 years for a Trade-Deal and a No-Deal Brexit will happen after about a year
8. Parliament and the House of Lords will be curtailed and the Tories will make changes to ensure they can't be voted out
9. The Social System will be effectively disbanded within 5 years. People will have the same support as people in the US. No money? Get a job or die..
10. Racism and Bigotry and Intolerance will peak and continue to peak
If we want trade deals then we will have to start charging WTO tariffs on all imports.  so It's either high inflation or no trade deals. no trade deals means we will be inefficient and uncompetitive.
We will be in a no win situation and we chose to put ourselves in this position. it's madness, the chances of Brexit being a success for the average person is zero.

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Re: Brexit-i-a-poos! 10 Predications
« Reply #33134 on: December 12, 2019, 03:58:27 AM »
After some initial big ones like Airbus and some of the car companies moving to the EU, I think it will go quite slowly. There might be some kind of Brexit bounce too. The only thing that is certain is over the course of the next 5 years the economy will stall and a Johnson government will act in a transactional, case by case manner. Driven by public opinion and the tabloids. So they might protect elements of the NHS, and maybe there will be some social house building. Banking deregulation to offset the loss of EU privileges in the City.
In short (at best) more of the same from the Tories with a slowing stalling economy

£ down to parity with the Euro and the $
UK from 5 to 7 (Worlds strongest economies)
 The debate about a united Ireland and Scottish independence could dominate politics UK for several years

Offline Alan_X

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Re: Brexit-i-a-poos! 10 Predications
« Reply #33135 on: December 12, 2019, 05:55:37 AM »
After some initial big ones like Airbus and some of the car companies moving to the EU, I think it will go quite slowly. There might be some kind of Brexit bounce too. The only thing that is certain is over the course of the next 5 years the economy will stall and a Johnson government will act in a transactional, case by case manner. Driven by public opinion and the tabloids. So they might protect elements of the NHS, and maybe there will be some social house building. Banking deregulation to offset the loss of EU privileges in the City.
In short (at best) more of the same from the Tories with a slowing stalling economy

£ down to parity with the Euro and the $
UK from 5 to 7 (Worlds strongest economies)
 The debate about a united Ireland and Scottish independence could dominate politics UK for several years

That’s my view. It will be a slow motion car crash and a steady decline into second-tier status around the world.
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Offline damomad

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Re: Brexit-i-a-poos! 10 Predications
« Reply #33136 on: December 12, 2019, 06:13:52 AM »
Scottish independence within 5 years, United ireland within 10.
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Offline a treeless whopper

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Re: Brexit-i-a-poos! 10 Predications
« Reply #33137 on: December 12, 2019, 07:08:44 AM »
Scottish independence within 5 years, United ireland within 10.

So not all bad then.

Offline KillieRed

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Re: Brexit-i-a-poos! 10 Predications
« Reply #33138 on: December 12, 2019, 08:39:48 AM »
After some initial big ones like Airbus and some of the car companies moving to the EU, I think it will go quite slowly. There might be some kind of Brexit bounce too. The only thing that is certain is over the course of the next 5 years the economy will stall and a Johnson government will act in a transactional, case by case manner. Driven by public opinion and the tabloids. So they might protect elements of the NHS, and maybe there will be some social house building. Banking deregulation to offset the loss of EU privileges in the City.
In short (at best) more of the same from the Tories with a slowing stalling economy

£ down to parity with the Euro and the $
UK from 5 to 7 (Worlds strongest economies)
 The debate about a united Ireland and Scottish independence could dominate politics UK for several years


This has a dreadful likelihood to it.
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Offline So... Howard Phillips

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Re: Brexit-i-a-poos! 10 Predications
« Reply #33139 on: December 12, 2019, 08:55:38 AM »
After some initial big ones like Airbus and some of the car companies moving to the EU, I think it will go quite slowly. There might be some kind of Brexit bounce too. The only thing that is certain is over the course of the next 5 years the economy will stall and a Johnson government will act in a transactional, case by case manner. Driven by public opinion and the tabloids. So they might protect elements of the NHS, and maybe there will be some social house building. Banking deregulation to offset the loss of EU privileges in the City.
In short (at best) more of the same from the Tories with a slowing stalling economy

£ down to parity with the Euro and the $
UK from 5 to 7 (Worlds strongest economies)
 The debate about a united Ireland and Scottish independence could dominate politics UK for several years

Yes, a slow, inevitable decline for the many. However we will see a lot more reality TV shows featuring body altered bimbos of all and every gender on the newly pay for view Boris Broadcasting Service.

Offline KillieRed

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Re: Brexit-i-a-poos! 10 Predications
« Reply #33140 on: December 12, 2019, 08:57:29 AM »
Yes, a slow, inevitable decline for the many. However we will see a lot more reality TV shows featuring body altered bimbos of all and every gender on the newly pay for view Boris Broadcasting Service.

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Offline oldfordie

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Re: Brexit-i-a-poos! 10 Predications
« Reply #33141 on: December 12, 2019, 04:41:32 PM »
Shit won't happen till transition ends in Dec 2020. then we will really see the effect of leaving the EU.
Can't see car manufacturers moving for at least 5-6 yrs, probably cut down on shifts when the problems of Just in time hit. sales will drop and costs will rise so car companies will go in time.
Still surprised the politicians are not attacking the Tories over 2 contradictory arguments they make.
Tariffs will kick in at the end of 2020. Johnson says he will wave goods through tariff free, theres no chance of signing any trade deals with anyone when we are already giving them tariff free access to the UK market, I think we will have to charge tariffs, this will hit UK companies badly. the effect will be immediate, higher costs to produce while being handicapped by higher tariffs abroad, dummy whammy.
I expect the UK to be in turmoil in 2021.
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Offline Jiminy Cricket

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Re: Brexit-i-a-poos! 10 Predications
« Reply #33142 on: December 12, 2019, 04:44:44 PM »
Do you really think it will take 5-6 years for the car manufactures to leave? I would assume as soon as they determine that there is not some sort quick re-entry into the SM and CU, they will move. Every day they spend in the UK will be only adding to their huge losses.

Offline oldfordie

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Re: Brexit-i-a-poos! 10 Predications
« Reply #33143 on: December 12, 2019, 05:01:15 PM »
Do you really think it will take 5-6 years for the car manufactures to leave? I would assume as soon as they determine that there is not some sort quick re-entry into the SM and CU, they will move. Every day they spend in the UK will be only adding to their huge losses.
Yeah, I think they will be happy just to tick over till they relocate which obviously cant be done for years,  a lot depends on when the plants need new investment or when new models need to awarded to certain plants. if a plant needs investment or a new model then their days are numbered, am sure the car companies have contingency plans worked out but these are always long term global plans.
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Offline Macphisto80

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Re: Brexit-i-a-poos! 10 Predications
« Reply #33144 on: December 12, 2019, 05:15:45 PM »
So not all bad then.
so you're saying you want rid of us, then?  :)

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Re: Brexit-i-a-poos! 10 Predications
« Reply #33145 on: December 12, 2019, 05:37:36 PM »
This could be a brilliant night or a sodding nightmare, few drinks in, hopefully a hung parliament, lots of Tory leave MPs liars loose their seat, watching Tory MPs go into meltdown on tv over tactical voting.
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Re: Brexit-i-a-poos! 10 Predications
« Reply #33146 on: December 12, 2019, 06:00:54 PM »
so you're saying you want rid of us, then?  :)

More like I want you lot to get away from us, we will bring you down otherwise.

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Re: Brexit-i-a-poos! 10 Predications
« Reply #33147 on: December 12, 2019, 06:04:52 PM »
Honestly I don't see much reason to be optimistic that we can get the Tories to the sub 313 (optimistically) seats that would be needed to stop them being able to form the next govt with eventual DUP support.

It's not impossible but it's probably longish odds
« Last Edit: December 12, 2019, 06:06:45 PM by filopastry »

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Re: Brexit-i-a-poos! 10 Predications
« Reply #33148 on: December 12, 2019, 06:23:02 PM »
Honestly I don't see much reason to be optimistic that we can get the Tories to the sub 313 (optimistically) seats that would be needed to stop them being able to form the next govt with eventual DUP support.

It's not impossible but it's probably longish odds
Wouldn't say it longish odds, odds for a hung parliament this morning was 4/1,those odds have been getting cut all day, as low as 6/4 now but you can still get 2/1.
Went to vote around 1pm.was told they had more people in by dinner time than they usually have all day.
The Tories may well regret their actions over the last few months, making Johnson PM has started a new way of voting in this country, voters who don't want the Tories in power are now getting organised to vote them out, hope this continues for many years to come.
« Last Edit: December 12, 2019, 06:26:11 PM by oldfordie »
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Re: Brexit-i-a-poos! 10 Predications
« Reply #33149 on: December 12, 2019, 06:38:15 PM »
Yeah, I think they will be happy just to tick over till they relocate which obviously cant be done for years,  a lot depends on when the plants need new investment or when new models need to awarded to certain plants. if a plant needs investment or a new model then their days are numbered, am sure the car companies have contingency plans worked out but these are always long term global plans.


BMW have spent the past 5 years expanding the Dutch plant that builds the Mini and the X1, Auto Express were reporting in Spring that BMW could relocate engine production from Hams Hall to Austria.

PSA has already announced that the Russelsheim plant will build the next gen Astra, with Ellesmere Port only getting the nod based on Brexit.

Nissan has plants in Spain (Qashqai), France and Russia. They build the same models as Sunderland in Japan.

Based on all that, I give it 12 months for those 3 to have left and JLR another 12 to 18 months.

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Re: Brexit-i-a-poos! 10 Predications
« Reply #33150 on: December 12, 2019, 06:42:51 PM »
BMW have spent the past 5 years expanding the Dutch plant that builds the Mini and the X1, Auto Express were reporting in Spring that BMW could relocate engine production from Hams Hall to Austria.

PSA has already announced that the Russelsheim plant will build the next gen Astra, with Ellesmere Port only getting the nod based on Brexit.

Nissan has plants in Spain (Qashqai), France and Russia. They build the same models as Sunderland in Japan.

Based on all that, I give it 12 months for those 3 to have left and JLR another 12 to 18 months.
You may well be right Rob based on that info. how much do JLR export to the USA nowadays, was wondering if they are a bit safer than the rest of the UK car industry, having said that it's hard to see how they will produce efficiently when just in time goes.
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Re: Brexit-i-a-poos! 10 Predications
« Reply #33151 on: December 12, 2019, 06:45:40 PM »
1. Brexit happens on 31st December. It Just Does.
2. Mass Civil Disobedience on New Years Eve - and it doesn't get better.
3. Scotland goes for the Catalan style second referendum in May 2020. And its a landslide.
4. Pound slides to parity with the Euro within 12 months.Frottage makes his millions.
5. 2011-riots all across the country in Summer 2020.
6. Tories use Civil Contigencies...
7. TV License becomes weaponised. Mass non-payment against perceived pro-govt bias.
8. LFC wins League and UCL, with everything that comes from that.
9. Sadiq Khan wins 2nd term as London's mayor. Tories end in fourth place.
10. Mayhem.
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Re: Brexit-i-a-poos! 10 Predications
« Reply #33152 on: December 12, 2019, 08:14:21 PM »
You may well be right Rob based on that info. how much do JLR export to the USA nowadays, was wondering if they are a bit safer than the rest of the UK car industry, having said that it's hard to see how they will produce efficiently when just in time goes.

I found a report from 2018 that said that sales in the USA weren't large enough to justify building cars over there, however, if the workforce in Eastern Europe pull their fingers out they could maybe move everything over there.

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Re: Brexit-i-a-poos! 10 Predications
« Reply #33153 on: December 12, 2019, 08:18:46 PM »
1. Brexit happens on 31st December. It Just Does.
2. Mass Civil Disobedience on New Years Eve - and it doesn't get better.
3. Scotland goes for the Catalan style second referendum in May 2020. And its a landslide.
4. Pound slides to parity with the Euro within 12 months.Frottage makes his millions.
5. 2011-riots all across the country in Summer 2020.
6. Tories use Civil Contigencies...
7. TV License becomes weaponised. Mass non-payment against perceived pro-govt bias.
8. LFC wins League and UCL, with everything that comes from that.
9. Sadiq Khan wins 2nd term as London's mayor. Tories end in fourth place.
10. Mayhem.

No chance

Apart from 8, and probably number 10 as a consequence of 8 ;D

Offline oldfordie

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Re: Brexit-i-a-poos! 10 Predications
« Reply #33154 on: December 12, 2019, 08:23:13 PM »
I found a report from 2018 that said that sales in the USA weren't large enough to justify building cars over there, however, if the workforce in Eastern Europe pull their fingers out they could maybe move everything over there.
I wasn't thinking of JLR moving to the USA, was wondering if the JLR USA sales would prop up Halewood for 6 yrs +, would be ironic if the JLR plant in Slovakia gets more EU funding to expand . real  threat to Halewood.
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Offline filopastry

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Re: Brexit-i-a-poos! 10 Predications
« Reply #33155 on: December 12, 2019, 08:38:09 PM »
Wouldn't say it longish odds, odds for a hung parliament this morning was 4/1,those odds have been getting cut all day, as low as 6/4 now but you can still get 2/1.
Went to vote around 1pm.was told they had more people in by dinner time than they usually have all day.
The Tories may well regret their actions over the last few months, making Johnson PM has started a new way of voting in this country, voters who don't want the Tories in power are now getting organised to vote them out, hope this continues for many years to come.
A hung Parliament isn't enough though, you need to get to a position where Tory+DUP doesn't get to a majority

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Offline Mutton Geoff

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Re: Brexit-i-a-poos! 10 Predications
« Reply #33156 on: December 12, 2019, 09:05:51 PM »
Scottish independence within 5 years, United ireland within 10.

Followed by Wales, then Cornwall .
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Offline Commie Bobbie

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Re: Brexit-i-a-poos! 10 Predications
« Reply #33157 on: December 12, 2019, 09:24:58 PM »
Followed by Wales, then Cornwall .

Then London. If not before Wales.
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Offline a treeless whopper

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Re: Brexit-i-a-poos! 10 Predications
« Reply #33158 on: December 12, 2019, 09:54:30 PM »
Tories with a 20-30 majority.

Offline Andy ⁎ Allerton

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Re: Brexit-i-a-poos! 10 Predications
« Reply #33159 on: December 12, 2019, 10:49:07 PM »
So that's the NHS officially given away to US Big Pharma then.

OK. Time to look at opportunities abroad methinks :)
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