Topic: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"

[redmark]

Plus if he did become PM this way could you be that confident that he sticks to his word on it being a temp where there is no legislation passed?

He would have no majority for anything beyond Brexit. He couldn't pass legislation. He would himself be no confidenced if he did anything beyond the agreed remit.

I get that people don't think he should be PM. But I don't get how people think he's going to sneak legislation through a hostile house.

[Trada]

You know why the Lib Dems are doing this, they know that a General election will now come down to vote Tory for a Johnson hard Brexit or Labour for a 2nd ref on any deal Labour get, with remain on the ballot there will be no need to vote for the Brexit party or the Lib Dems.

[TepidT2O]

You know why the Lib Dems are doing this, they know that a General election will now come down to vote Tory for a Johnson hard Brexit or Labour for a 2nd ref on any deal Labour get, with remain on the ballot there will be no need to vote for the Brexit party or the Lib Dems.

That makes no sense.

They would be quite happy to back this with almost anyone else leading it.  They’ve said as much

Their problem is Corbyn.  His uselessness and his racism.

[filopastry]

Well Trada, you had better hope the LibDems aren't irrelevant because without them picking off Tory marginals in The South, the Tories are likely to get a majority

[filopastry]

Election Maps UK
@ElectionMapsUK
 · 6m
According to my numbers:

At worst, a Corbyn caretaker Govt. WOULD FAIL to get the House's confidence by 34 votes.

At best, a Corbyn caretaker Govt. WOULD SUCCEED in getting the House's confidence by 1 vote.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

He would have no majority for anything beyond Brexit. He couldn't pass legislation. He would himself be no confidenced if he did anything beyond the agreed remit.

I get that people don't think he should be PM. But I don't get how people think he's going to sneak legislation through a hostile house.

you seriously don’t think there is a possibility they won’t willingly give up a position where they control the country? Even if he did get no confidenced, much like boris I don’t see them giving it up quietly (and there is the question of who next)

That makes no sense.

They would be quite happy to back this with almost anyone else leading it.  They’ve said as much

Their problem is Corbyn.  His uselessness and his racism.

corbyn and the people around him, bad enough they run the Labour Party so can’t see them getting the backing

I think this is playing out as expected up to now, it all depends on whether Corbyn makes a bad tactical error. he is leader of the opposition, he should be the person who has the first chance to form a government so there's nothing wrong with him asking other parties to form a government with him, this is how things have always worked, the Lib Dems see Corbyn as a remainer they can't trust, they don't trust him and would never endorse him as leader so it's no suprise to hear them say they won't support him but this is the first stage, it's a opportunity for the Lib Dems to show the country they are not willing to jump into bed with Corbyn unless they are given no choice, so I wouldn't be surprised if the Lib Dems walked away telling Corbyn he has to allow another leader to be chosen or we will finish up with a no deal. Corbyn will go on record saying he's not prepared to allow another MP to be leader, imo the Lib Dems will back down and support him and we hopefully win the VONC,
Corbyn now has to campaign to win a GE, the Lib Dems will rip him apart for being prepared to allow us to crash out with no deal unless he became leader, being leader was more important to Corbyn than stopping a no deal.

one thing in the Lib Dem’s favour is that corbyn is massively unpopular (rather pathetic in the circumstances), so all they need to do is highlight why he’s unsuitable (can’t command the house, the antisemitism, his uselessness, his past etc) whilst also saying she had a credible alternative (Harman) who could have worked, and bingo Jezza gets the shit and his dreams die at long last

[The Gulleysucker]

He would have no majority for anything beyond Brexit. He couldn't pass legislation. He would himself be no confidenced if he did anything beyond the agreed remit.

I get that people don't think he should be PM. But I don't get how people think he's going to sneak legislation through a hostile house.

I'm not exactly sure how yet, but I just can't see that this proposal and the thinking behind it hasn't got some kind of contingency, a careful calculation, for just such a thing to be able to occur.

It just wouldn't have been made otherwise, not with Murray and Milne behind it.

It's a trust thing. Do you trust them, really? Does anyone trust them other than the acolytes and the delirious?

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Do you trust them, really? Does anyone trust them other than the acolytes and the delirious?

a lot of the corbyn outriders don’t seem to get that a lot of people on the centre left/centre do not trust those people at all and find them utterly toxic, so if he can’t get those onside how the hell could he get Tories on side?

[oldfordie]

one thing in the Lib Dem’s favour is that corbyn is massively unpopular (rather pathetic in the circumstances), so all they need to do is highlight why he’s unsuitable (can’t command the house, the antisemitism, his uselessness, his past etc) whilst also saying she had a credible alternative (Harman) who could have worked, and bingo Jezza gets the shit and his dreams die at long last

I expect the Election campaign to get really nasty so am sure all the parties will be tearing into Corbyn, am sure his supporters will argue he can't win either way, whatever he says will be thrown back in his face by his critics and thats true but he created this situation. even now we are being told Labours changed it's stance, they are now a remain party who support another referendum, vote Labour if you want to stop a no deal and bring about another referendum. where was he 3 yrs ago when Owen Smith made this argument, all the sh.. thrown at him and others to get us where we are today. are we supposed to desert all the MPs who have stood up to be counted, taken death threats and abuse daily while he has argued we must respect the result of the referendum but he will get a jobs first Brexit. a lot of s,, can be thrown at Corbyn for what he has done over the last few yrs but the thing that sickened me the most is what he did to Anna Soubry after she left the Tory party.
The woman has ripped her own party apart far more than Corbyn has ever done. she went through a period of not being able to return home due to death threats. what did Corbyn do while this was happening, he held a rally in her constituency demanding she held a by election to unseat her, he was demanding she walks round the streets banging on doors of angry gammons while the woman is in fear of her life due to fighting the Tories Brexit. he's a very nice man am told.
 I think it's very important to support any MP who has stood up to be counted over the last few yrs regardless of party. there are many MPs who have in the Labour party and I hope voters support them the rest can pee off.

[Robinred]

I'm not exactly sure how yet, but I just can't see that this proposal and the thinking behind it hasn't got some kind of contingency, a careful calculation, for just such a thing to be able to occur.

It just wouldn't have been made otherwise, not with Murray and Milne behind it.

It's a trust thing. Do you trust them, really? Does anyone trust them other than the acolytes and the delirious?

Exactly.

Milne is the puppet master. Everything we know about him strongly suggests he’s just as wedded to Brexit as Johnson, Frottage, Cummings, Martin, Dyson, Banks, JRM, IDS, Widdecombe, Patel, et al.

And I am unconvinced a No Deal Brexit isn’t Milne’s Brexit of choice. Politically, it’s just expedient to position Corbyn as the champion of the movement to prevent it. It’s Machiavellian, but entirely plausible.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

And I am unconvinced a No Deal Brexit isn’t Milne’s Brexit of choice. Politically, it’s just expedient to position Corbyn as the champion of the movement to prevent it. It’s Machiavellian, but entirely plausible.

tiny problem is he’s about 3 years late to that party

[Zeb]

Keep in mind the timeline. VoNC happens when? End of October, last moment possible? That's first week sorting out extension and brass tacks of new government. We're into November. Five weeks to call an election, that's mid-December and sucks nuts for turnout reasons - which is why we've not had one in December post-war. Decision is, after consultation, pushed to after Parliament's Christmas recess. Election is called first full week back, the election is mid-to-late February (making it only the third post-war election as early as February). They've six or seven weeks of Parliamentary time to fill. Anyone going to bring down the government if the SoS for the DWP reports the Universal Credit regulations need urgent amending? Or the Home Secretary says there's an absolute disaster been going on and some quick fixes need rushing through? And so on. Asquith > Clegg > Swinson would be the treble for the Lib Dems.

[oldfordie]

Keep in mind the timeline. VoNC happens when? End of October, last moment possible? That's first week sorting out extension and brass tacks of new government. We're into November. Five weeks to call an election, that's mid-December and sucks nuts for turnout reasons - which is why we've not had one in December post-war. Decision is, after consultation, pushed to after Parliament's Christmas recess. Election is called first full week back, the election is mid-to-late February (making it only the third post-war election as early as February). They've six or seven weeks of Parliamentary time to fill. Anyone going to bring down the government if the SoS for the DWP reports the Universal Credit regulations need urgent amending? Or the Home Secretary says there's an absolute disaster been going on and some quick fixes need rushing through? And so on. Asquith > Clegg > Swinson would be the treble for the Lib Dems.

Am not sure what you mean Zeb your usually clued up on these things but the VONC in MAY was called on the 15th Jan and the vote took place the following day.

[Zeb]

Am not sure what you mean Zeb your usually clued up on these things but the VONC in MAY was called on the 15th Jan and the vote took place the following day.

Yeah, that's right. Sorry, that wasn't the clearest. I'm saying that the VoNC has happened, Johnson's thrown a wobbler, MPs have convinced the Queen to call X to have tea with her, and X is now the PM but only just in time for the last week of October and to request and accept an extension before Thursday, 31st October. [edit: if it helps with figuring out the timing, 17/18th October is the European Council meeting so that's the cutoff point for legislative attempts to force Johnson to request an extension. So there's a clear week after that to try and have the VoNC and begin trying to form a government etc.]

[redmark]

I'm not exactly sure how yet, but I just can't see that this proposal and the thinking behind it hasn't got some kind of contingency, a careful calculation, for just such a thing to be able to occur.

It just wouldn't have been made otherwise, not with Murray and Milne behind it.

It's a trust thing. Do you trust them, really? Does anyone trust them other than the acolytes and the delirious?

No, but I trust basic maths. A minority government in this house won't be able to do anything beyond a narrow scope pre-agreed with all of its backers.

If Murray, Milne and Corbyn want a no deal - and I certainly don't rule that out - then Corbyn will act a twat in discussions with the other parties and then refuse to support any other minority PM - or even refuse to bring a VONC. That would give a good chance of a no deal with plausible deniability for the resulting fallout and general election.

But the first point I was responding to was on the idea that a Corbyn minority government could try and cling on to power for months and enact radical non-Brexit related legislation. I think that's nonsense.

Though to repeat, I'd rather the Stop-No-Deal PM was someone else, a senior figure like Ken Clarke. If anything, Swinson's slight overplaying of the Lib Dems' hand has made the choice between Corbyn and No Deal more likely as she's backed him into a lose-lose position, which wasn't smart politics. But if the Change UK MPs are going to scupper even the VONC, this may all be moot anyway.

[Circa1892]

Cannot describe my hatred(always disliked them  )for the lib dems since that Tory loving bitch got elected party leader a few weeks ago 

You selfish 2 faced cow labour and Corbyn are HM official opposition party!
Not you and the spineless snake chukka umumma 

Kinder gentler politics. Gendered offensive language, name calling, suspicious targeting of only one of the many to leave Labour aswell. You’re like every hard left troll on here and on Twitter.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Kinder gentler politics. Gendered offensive language, name calling, suspicious targeting of only one of the many to leave Labour aswell. You’re like every hard left troll on here and on Twitter.

the one who happens to be a black man who doesn’t bow down to corbyn or the labour party, the same people who attack minority Tories on racial lines not their (lack of) competency

[TepidT2O]

Kinder gentler politics. Gendered offensive language, name calling, suspicious targeting of only one of the many to leave Labour aswell. You’re like every hard left troll on here and on Twitter.

No, I don’t agree. 

I don’t agree with what he says, but if I’m going to describe Corbyn asa useless c*nt, he’s got every right to do the same to Swinson

[fudge]

Cannot describe my hatred(always disliked them  )for the lib dems since that Tory loving bitch got elected party leader a few weeks ago 

You selfish 2 faced cow labour and Corbyn are HM official opposition party!
Not you and the spineless snake chukka umumma 

Utterly bemused by this visceral hatred for the Lib Dem’s, proper Life of Brian splitter stuff.

As a Lib Dem I can understand you don’t think we’re far enough to the left, albeit some of our progressive policies definitely have been and in all honesty should’ve been Labour inceptions in the first place, but ultimately in my head that’s what the Party system should be about as no one has a monopoly on good ideas.

But at its core most would accept the Lib Dem’s are a sensible party and more often than not with their view of the would would be on the same page as Labour.  From my part I would always feel comfortable with a Labour government because I know they’re ‘like me’. The far bigger issue is the rapacious capitalism of the Conservatives, that has to be faced down at every opportunity. It’s obviously why we managed to shoot ourselves in the foot , abdomen, leg , arm and head by the death cult alliance with the Conservatives , I know we’d preached working with anyone but it was of course never meant to be with that lot. Never the less as was seen when we weren’t with them we tempered their worst instincts and we got genuinely groundbreaking policies like the £12500 tax allowance through to the top table.  Regardless it was horrible and left me party less for years, we’ll never really know , both Labour and Lib Dem blame each other saying the other was to blame for not working together but it’s a crying shame it didn’t work as our nation would be a wholly better place now.

I’ve got to say though Nayia2002 this sort of shit above is the perfect demonstration of the infighting that allows the Tories in, it certainly has allowed them to force Brexit on us and unless we stop this playground fighting soon could well have No Deal thrust upon us.  It’s short termism of the worst type and we have to thing longer and more constructively. Tactical voting is one aspect but it’s sticking plaster.


The issue is the first past the post system, and here Labour needs to take its own responsibility, it should’ve seen the long term benefit from PR and backed the Lib Dem referendum as it would’ve marginalised the Tories for a long time. Most people in this country vote centrist and left and its a crying shame that the Conservatives manage to play the system so well that they derive power so often. 

Cue the first person now to rush in with tuition fees and Tory collaborators as if every party doesn’t have fuck off skeletons of their own to be embarrassed about.

So Nayia2002 what I’m saying is if you can’t even work with the likes of us placid Inbetweeners then you’ve got little chance of government again if the landscape looks like changing to this multi party system for the foreseeable.

[Andy @ Allerton!]

What I find funny about the Blairites for months they were saying that the country needs is a 2nd Ref, and as soon as  Jeremy agreed to a 2nd Referendum in all circumstances they went oh fuck and then when to immediately campaigning for a National Unity Government.

Why do you keep saying 'Blairites' - what is the actual point you are personally making here?

[TepidT2O]

Why do you keep saying 'Blairites' - what is the actual point you are personally making here?

because he’s copied it off twitter/Facebook.

[Libertine]

Utterly bemused by this visceral hatred for the Lib Dem’s, proper Life of Brian splitter stuff.

Bemused? You shouldn't be.

For the far left, the true enemy aren't the Tories or other right wing parties - they are their opponents and are truly necessary for their existence. They can campaign against them, rage against their policies and uncaring actions, sometimes beating them in elections (in theory), more often losing to them (and let's face it, they probably secretly prefer that as it avoids the messy compromises of actually governing).

No, their true enemy are other parties of the left and centre-left - be they social democrats or liberals. Because those parties show that progressive politics can be successful, both electorally and in governing, without being stuck in the old far left mindset. And in doing so, render the existence of the far left as redundant (certainly as a serious electoral force). That's why you'll see their really visceral hatred directed at those parties you might expect to be political allies.

[nayia2002]

That’s an answer to a different question...

Go back and answer my question...  I don’t know the answer too it, I don’t have an answer, I'm interested in what others think

No he shouldn't step aside and I'm 100% sure no other opposition leader(past/present/future) would allow a back bench mp to lead a  TEMPORARY government until a GE.

[nayia2002]

Kinder gentler politics. Gendered offensive language, name calling, suspicious targeting of only one of the many to leave Labour aswell. You’re like every hard left troll on here and on Twitter.

It's all well and good calling Corbyn a c*nt/tw*t and every other word under the sun!
Some of you need to get off your high horses!

[Cpt_Reina]

The Lib Dem's have done plenty to erode any amount of trust or affection they might have from genuinely left leaning voters.

It really isn't a case of they're disliked because they're moderate or centrists, they're disliked because they enabled the Tories to implement nasty, damaging and cruel austerity *this decade* much of which is still being felt, still fresh in the memories of most.

They also flip flopped on their one actual policy which garnered them some amount of votes to even enable them to be able to cosign on austerity in that whole tuition fee fuck up.

Now here we are again and for the second time in my life the Lib Dems are ready to fuck shit up and undermine the one thing they claim to stand for.

They earned any and all of the vitriol they get.

[Zeb]

No he shouldn't step aside and I'm 100% sure no other opposition leader(past/present/future) would allow a back bench mp to lead a  TEMPORARY government until a GE.

Every government is temporary.

I actually think Corbyn is perfectly correct that he should have the first chance of forming a government. The question is who gets the chance after he fails.

----

Thought this was interesting on how voters have responded to the past few years in politics in terms of their trust in democracy and MPs etc. Via Will Jennings, one of Sky's boffins as well as a few other things including his academic career.

Spoiler

[close]

Obviously, you can draw your own conclusions about likely future trends given whichever outcome you see as being most likely or preferable.

[Sangria]

No he shouldn't step aside and I'm 100% sure no other opposition leader(past/present/future) would allow a back bench mp to lead a  TEMPORARY government until a GE.

Read your history. A government with a working majority has allowed the opposition to name a replacement leader in the past.

[Dr. Beaker]

Remembering BJ's tactics for disposing of Gove in the leadership election, I wouldn't be surprised to see a steady stream of Tories 'joining' Corbyn's call for a VoNC to give it a false momentum.

[filopastry]

Corbyn is going to need quite a few Tories, because it seems a few former Labour Indepedents aren't exactly rushing to vote for him as PM.

[nayia2002]

So Nayia2002 what I’m saying is if you can’t even work with the likes of us placid Inbetweeners then you’ve got little chance of government again if the landscape looks like changing to this multi party system for the foreseeable.

She has refused to work/cooperate with the oppision party leader to support a vonc and lead a gonu to stop no deal and call a GE which all other party leaders have accepted!

She's a lying selfish 2 faced tory bitch!

[naka]

I think this is playing out as expected up to now, it all depends on whether Corbyn makes a bad tactical error. he is leader of the opposition, he should be the person who has the first chance to form a government so there's nothing wrong with him asking other parties to form a government with him, this is how things have always worked, the Lib Dems see Corbyn as a remainer they can't trust, they don't trust him and would never endorse him as leader so it's no suprise to hear them say they won't support him but this is the first stage, it's a opportunity for the Lib Dems to show the country they are not willing to jump into bed with Corbyn unless they are given no choice, so I wouldn't be surprised if the Lib Dems walked away telling Corbyn he has to allow another leader to be chosen or we will finish up with a no deal. Corbyn will go on record saying he's not prepared to allow another MP to be leader, imo the Lib Dems will back down and support him and we hopefully win the VONC,
Corbyn now has to campaign to win a GE, the Lib Dems will rip him apart for being prepared to allow us to crash out with no deal unless he became leader, being leader was more important to Corbyn than stopping a no deal.

a fair analysis but I believe the lib dems wont support him though.
this is on Corbyn and he knows it no matter what his aficionados think
swinson is playing a blinder throwing out names such as Clarke and harman( although am looking forward to seeing the abuse both get for daring to consider the job)
if Corbyn is so self absorbed that he would rather have a no deal  go through than not be elected then the lib dems will destroy labour at the next elections

[Snail]

The Lib Dem's have done plenty to erode any amount of trust or affection they might have from genuinely left leaning voters.

It really isn't a case of they're disliked because they're moderate or centrists, they're disliked because they enabled the Tories to implement nasty, damaging and cruel austerity *this decade* much of which is still being felt, still fresh in the memories of most.

They also flip flopped on their one actual policy which garnered them some amount of votes to even enable them to be able to cosign on austerity in that whole tuition fee fuck up.

Now here we are again and for the second time in my life the Lib Dems are ready to fuck shit up and undermine the one thing they claim to stand for.

They earned any and all of the vitriol they get.

Thank you.

[Red-Soldier]

Corbyn hasn't got a chance of commanding a majority in the HoC.

It's hard to see him commanding their respect either. 

[filopastry]

She has refused to work/cooperate with the oppision party leader to support a vonc and lead a gonu to stop no deal and call a GE which all other party leaders have accepted!

She's a lying selfish 2 faced tory bitch!

If you think this kind of ranting does anything to convince those of us who are no fans of the current Labour leadership that we are wrong in our views, I can assure you, you are very much mistaken.

Back on the issue in hand, I haven't seen much to change my view from yesterday, if Corbyn can get close enough in terms of support from other MPs, so that he can form a GNU with LD support the LDs wll fall in line after having an approriate length grump about it, but it looks even less likely today than yesterday that Corbyn can get those votes from elsewhere.

In short the LDs will fall in line if Corbyn gets the numbers (you can already see indications of this) but he almost certainly won't get the numbers.

[fudge]

The Lib Dem's have done plenty to erode any amount of trust or affection they might have from genuinely left leaning voters.

It really isn't a case of they're disliked because they're moderate or centrists, they're disliked because they enabled the Tories to implement nasty, damaging and cruel austerity *this decade* much of which is still being felt, still fresh in the memories of most.

They also flip flopped on their one actual policy which garnered them some amount of votes to even enable them to be able to cosign on austerity in that whole tuition fee fuck up.

Now here we are again and for the second time in my life the Lib Dems are ready to fuck shit up and undermine the one thing they claim to stand for.

They earned any and all of the vitriol they get.

As I said skeletons. If the electorate can forgive an illegal war with 100’s of thousands dead they can forgive being called to power at the countries greatest need since the Second World War.  As I said all conjecture but with labour pulling the Yes Prime Minister/New Statesmen trick of leaving the next lot to clear up your own shit whilst they rebuild and snipe from the sidelines. Even with little comedy notes to say the moneys all gone.

Dead dead easy to throw stones from glass houses but we all end shredded because every party has blood on their hands

[filopastry]

As I said skeletons. If the electorate can forgive an illegal war with 100’s of thousands dead they can forgive being called to power at the countries greatest need since the Second World War.  As I said all conjecture but with labour pulling the Yes Prime Minister/New Statesmen trick of leaving the next lot to clear up your own shit whilst they rebuild and snipe from the sidelines. Even with little comedy notes to say the moneys all gone.

Dead dead easy to throw stones from glass houses but we all end shredded because every party has blood on their hands

All political parties fuck you over in the end, Labour have just done it more recently and under current leadership as far as I am concerned!

[TepidT2O]

As I said skeletons. If the electorate can forgive an illegal war with 100’s of thousands dead they can forgive being called to power at the countries greatest need since the Second World War.  As I said all conjecture but with labour pulling the Yes Prime Minister/New Statesmen trick of leaving the next lot to clear up your own shit whilst they rebuild and snipe from the sidelines. Even with little comedy notes to say the moneys all gone.

Dead dead easy to throw stones from glass houses but we all end shredded because every party has blood on their hands

That’s true...

And we shouldn’t forget that the Lib Dem’s supported the Tories because they wanted to change the voting system to make politics in this country  fairer

It would have revolutionised the way our country worked.  That was an admirable aspiration.. 

[fudge]

She has refused to work/cooperate with the oppision party leader to support a vonc and lead a gonu to stop no deal and call a GE which all other party leaders have accepted!

She's a lying selfish 2 faced tory bitch!

🤣 half his own MP’s can’t stand Corbyn and you’re worrying about what the LIb Dems have to say, which btw is the main reason she’s saying she can’t work with him because any concept of unity goes out of the window with the Labour and Tory MP’s who won’t work with him.

[nayia2002]

The Lib Dem's have done plenty to erode any amount of trust or affection they might have from genuinely left leaning voters.

It really isn't a case of they're disliked because they're moderate or centrists, they're disliked because they enabled the Tories to implement nasty, damaging and cruel austerity *this decade* much of which is still being felt, still fresh in the memories of most.

They also flip flopped on their one actual policy which garnered them some amount of votes to even enable them to be able to cosign on austerity in that whole tuition fee fuck up.

Now here we are again and for the second time in my life the Lib Dems are ready to fuck shit up and undermine the one thing they claim to stand for.

They earned any and all of the vitriol they get.

100% well said mate

[fudge]

That’s true...

And we shouldn’t forget that the Lib Dem’s supported the Tories because they wanted to change the voting system to make politics in this country  fairer

It would have revolutionised the way our country worked.  That was an admirable aspiration.. 

That’s the biggest regret and missed opportunity I believe . Would’ve genuinely improved this countries democracy