Poll

RAWK and Brexit

No Deal!
65 (8.8%)
Mays Deal!
14 (1.9%)
No Brexit!
538 (72.8%)
Don't Know
10 (1.4%)
Don't Care
15 (2%)
I don't live in the UK
97 (13.1%)

Total Members Voted: 739

Author Topic: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"  (Read 833922 times)

Offline Nobby Reserve

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24480 on: August 16, 2019, 11:55:53 AM »
The only way this could possibly work is with a tight schedule of actions:

1. Secure an A50 extension
2. Conduct a 2nd Ref
3. Hold a GE

With a disparate alliance able to withdraw their support at any time (thus making the GNU fall), there would be no room for deviating from the schedule.

Problem is, I can't imagine Corbyn and his team going for anything like that - and the TIGgers are too intent on despising Corbyn and not losing their Parliamentary seats in a brought-forward GE to support it, so would likely vote against and risk a no-deal.

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Offline filopastry

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24481 on: August 16, 2019, 12:08:35 PM »
Gauke and Hammond are meant to be working on something themselves which doesn't involve making Corbyn PM. Grieves rejecting it out of hand should really demonstrate that Swinson hadn't factored in Corbyn and Co pretending it was anything otherwise.

Grieve's opposition pretty much kills it as a credible option I would think, the Labour leadership just need too many Tories to support it,  as they can't bring all the non-Tories to vote for Corbyn (and I'm not talking about the LDs there either)

Offline redmark

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24482 on: August 16, 2019, 12:19:46 PM »
I can absolutely see why people say Corbyn should be the PM in a GONU.
But if itís such an issue that there is no GONU so you have to pick someone else.


Agreed. I think the point of disagreement is that that isn't Swinson's decision and her eagerness to do so betrayed a desire to be seen as the leader of 'Stop-No-Deal' (with all the political gain associated) that slightly over-reached her position.
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Offline ShakaHislop

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Offline Just Elmo?

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24485 on: August 16, 2019, 12:45:00 PM »
Or Scotland apparently.
Or 1977. Or 1924. Or 1929. Or local governments.
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Offline Skeeve

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24486 on: August 16, 2019, 01:06:21 PM »
It's all well and good calling Corbyn a c*nt/tw*t and every other word under the sun!
Some of you need to get off your high horses!

He's earned the abuse with his ongoing abysmal performance since the referendum, you apparently think that she deserves being abused for not wanting to put a brexiter in charge of dealing with brexit.

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24487 on: August 16, 2019, 01:17:43 PM »
He's earned the abuse with his ongoing abysmal performance since the referendum, you apparently think that she deserves being abused for not wanting to put a brexiter in charge of dealing with brexit.

I'm no fan of Corbyn, but I'd reserve the c word for arch Brexiters. They can rot in hell as far as I am concerned.

Offline Tepid T₂O

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24488 on: August 16, 2019, 01:19:16 PM »
I'm no fan of Corbyn, but I'd reserve the c word for arch Brexiters. They can rot in hell as far as I am concerned.
errrrr...

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Offline Andy

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24489 on: August 16, 2019, 01:38:32 PM »
errrrr...



Fair point.

Arch Brexiter right wing c*nts.

Offline Circa1892

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24490 on: August 16, 2019, 02:03:54 PM »
Grieve has now killed off Corbyn's plan, which Corbyn and Milne will have known was never a goer (and is simply thrown in to make it look like they're being vaguely grown up for once).

Jones and the rest of the Whatsapp group can get on with their revisionist, one-sided look at the Lib Dems going into coalition rather than ever offering anything constructive.

At this stage, does anyone have any idea what's going to happen??

Offline oldfordie

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24491 on: August 16, 2019, 02:11:17 PM »
Grieve has now killed off Corbyn's plan, which Corbyn and Milne will have known was never a goer (and is simply thrown in to make it look like they're being vaguely grown up for once).

Jones and the rest of the Whatsapp group can get on with their revisionist, one-sided look at the Lib Dems going into coalition rather than ever offering anything constructive.

At this stage, does anyone have any idea what's going to happen??
I suppose the question now is will Corbyn still bring the VONC as soon as Parliament returns or will he say theres not much point if am not going to be leader of the National Government.
Blackford and others were talking about legislating to stop a no deal.
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Offline Machae

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24492 on: August 16, 2019, 02:24:44 PM »
Corbyn would probably prefer if Johnson remains, UK leaves with a No-Deal and Tories remain in power, as long as that means he will hang onto the Labour leadership

Offline redmark

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24493 on: August 16, 2019, 02:28:06 PM »
I suppose the question now is will Corbyn still bring the VONC as soon as Parliament returns or will he say theres not much point if am not going to be leader of the National Government.
Blackford and others were talking about legislating to stop a no deal.
Corbyn won't bring a VONC if it's going to fail. They key on that probably won't be Grieve et al, who are open to a GNU (just not led by Corbyn), but by the Change UK bloc who are putting the argument that a VONC followed by no GNU leaves us open to a Johnson-scheduled election, and that it would be better to at least have a sitting parliament to try other legislative means to avoid No Deal.
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Offline ShakaHislop

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24494 on: August 16, 2019, 02:45:28 PM »
Quote
New front in fake news - someone badly photoshopping an entirely made-up Guardian article, supposedly written by me, about invented Lib Dem splits. Odd and alarming.

Thanks to @Matt_Severn for pointing out.

https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1162343760824602624

The original Tweet containing the fake news has nearly 500 likes.

Offline oldfordie

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24495 on: August 16, 2019, 02:46:00 PM »
Corbyn won't bring a VONC if it's going to fail. They key on that probably won't be Grieve et al, who are open to a GNU (just not led by Corbyn), but by the Change UK bloc who are putting the argument that a VONC followed by no GNU leaves us open to a Johnson-scheduled election, and that it would be better to at least have a sitting parliament to try other legislative means to avoid No Deal.
There's a lot of different opinions on this, I understand the logic of Change, I hope they have their facts right.
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Offline redmark

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24496 on: August 16, 2019, 02:57:29 PM »
There's a lot of different opinions on this, I understand the logic of Change, I hope they have their facts right.
It's hardly novel to say so, but the big danger still seems to be that all the opponents of No Deal can't agree on the best way to stop it. That still seems to be the likeliest path to 'accidentally' sleepwalking into a No Deal.
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Offline oldfordie

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24497 on: August 16, 2019, 03:29:48 PM »
It's hardly novel to say so, but the big danger still seems to be that all the opponents of No Deal can't agree on the best way to stop it. That still seems to be the likeliest path to 'accidentally' sleepwalking into a No Deal.
Change can voice a opinion but they also need to accept facts. if they believe other parties have got their facts wrong on Parliamentary procedure then they need to sit down with other parties and discuss who is right or wrong.
The parties have a few weeks to thrash this out and I think the possibility of a no deal will force compromise. the first thing everyone's agreed on is we need a extension. Zeb pointed out this extension can't take us in to April next year. so that's a 5 month extension at most. we need to either have another referendum or GE to bring about another referendum inside 5 months. can this Parliament achieve all this is the question.
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Offline Circa1892

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24498 on: August 16, 2019, 03:41:32 PM »
https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1162343760824602624

The original Tweet containing the fake news has nearly 500 likes.

I enjoyed the "I know some bad people" quote given to Swinson.

Offline TheShanklyGates

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24499 on: August 16, 2019, 03:46:44 PM »
Grieve has now killed off Corbyn's plan, which Corbyn and Milne will have known was never a goer (and is simply thrown in to make it look like they're being vaguely grown up for once).

Jones and the rest of the Whatsapp group can get on with their revisionist, one-sided look at the Lib Dems going into coalition rather than ever offering anything constructive.

At this stage, does anyone have any idea what's going to happen??

No deal Brexit on the 31st of October.
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Offline filopastry

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24500 on: August 16, 2019, 03:52:30 PM »
Change can voice a opinion but they also need to accept facts. if they believe other parties have got their facts wrong on Parliamentary procedure then they need to sit down with other parties and discuss who is right or wrong.
The parties have a few weeks to thrash this out and I think the possibility of a no deal will force compromise. the first thing everyone's agreed on is we need a extension. Zeb pointed out this extension can't take us in to April next year. so that's a 5 month extension at most. we need to either have another referendum or GE to bring about another referendum inside 5 months. can this Parliament achieve all this is the question.

All Change seem to be saying is that they won't vote for a VONC until they can see there is a majority for a GNU to be formed.

I think their reading is correct, that if the 14 days post VONC pass without a GNU forming then an election can be called, Parliament dissolved and with the time remaining Johnson could call the resulting GE so that we had already exited the EU by then.

Change's view is that we should continue to look for other Parliamentary solutions until such time as it appears that there is a majority in Parliament to support a GNU.

It doesn't help that conference season will be in the middle of this process as well

Offline Andy

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24501 on: August 16, 2019, 03:56:30 PM »
At this stage, does anyone have any idea what's going to happen??

The real anti Brexit people are finally starting to talk to each more publicly, and getting themselves organised. Progress at last.

Offline Alan_X

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24502 on: August 16, 2019, 04:15:02 PM »
You know why the Lib Dems are doing this, they know that a General election will now come down to vote Tory for a Johnson hard Brexit or Labour for a 2nd ref on any deal Labour get, with remain on the ballot there will be no need to vote for the Brexit party or the Lib Dems.

Where will Remain be on the ballot? Corbyn said that Labour would go for a Labour Brexit if they win the election. Has 'Labour Spokesman' Seamus agreed that Labour is a Remain party?
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Offline Alan_X

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24503 on: August 16, 2019, 04:19:36 PM »
Agreed. I think the point of disagreement is that that isn't Swinson's decision and her eagerness to do so betrayed a desire to be seen as the leader of 'Stop-No-Deal' (with all the political gain associated) that slightly over-reached her position.


Could you point me to the statement where that comes across? I've read the statement where she dismisses Corbyn as a possible leader of a GNU because he couldn't command a majority of MPS across the house.
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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24504 on: August 16, 2019, 04:27:46 PM »
Where will Remain be on the ballot? Corbyn said that Labour would go for a Labour Brexit if they win the election. Has 'Labour Spokesman' Seamus agreed that Labour is a Remain party?

That was the problem with the last election: Labour were too cowardly to back Remain and so people (I think including Corbyn, but I might be wrong) said that "x% of voters voted for a Leave party" which put Labour in the same camp as the Tories.


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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24505 on: August 16, 2019, 04:46:40 PM »
Interesting to see the reaction in the comments to Owen Jones's piece in The Guardian, which seems to be, predominantly, a subdued anger that Corbyn is playing politics at a time of crisis and a wish to see another candidate emerge. So RAWK would seem to be an indicator on this.

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24506 on: August 16, 2019, 05:07:20 PM »
No he shouldn't step aside and I'm 100% sure no other opposition leader(past/present/future) would allow a back bench mp to lead a  TEMPORARY government until a GE.

Chamberlain stepped down as PM to allow someone else to lead the coalition because Labour refused to work under Chamberlain. His preference, Lord Halifax, also stood aside to let Churchill lead the  coalition.
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Offline oldfordie

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24507 on: August 16, 2019, 05:24:40 PM »
All Change seem to be saying is that they won't vote for a VONC until they can see there is a majority for a GNU to be formed.

I think their reading is correct, that if the 14 days post VONC pass without a GNU forming then an election can be called, Parliament dissolved and with the time remaining Johnson could call the resulting GE so that we had already exited the EU by then.

Change's view is that we should continue to look for other Parliamentary solutions until such time as it appears that there is a majority in Parliament to support a GNU.

It doesn't help that conference season will be in the middle of this process as well
Yeah, if that's what they are saying then I think they are correct. it's actually a good point, a new leader has to be sorted before the VONC is held. having said that if they can't pass legislation to stop a no deal then we are f.. anyway so it doesn't really matter if a National government can't be formed.
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Offline filopastry

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24508 on: August 16, 2019, 05:31:36 PM »
Yeah, if that's what they are saying then I think they are correct. it's actually a good point, a new leader has to be sorted before the VONC is held. having said that if they can't pass legislation to stop a no deal then we are f.. anyway so it doesn't really matter if a National government can't be formed.

Agreed

On the other hand they seem pretty much 100% set on not voting for a Corbyn led GNU, which just adds to the mountain that option would have to climb (even more Tory votes that just don't seem to be there).

The odd one though is that they seem to be pushing for a confirmatory ref rather than an election, as nice as that would be I just don't see that happening as we have all discussed on here. Of course I suppose pretty much all the people left in Change are likely to lose their seats in a GE, so that might make a bit more sense on that basis!
« Last Edit: August 16, 2019, 05:33:25 PM by filopastry »

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24509 on: August 16, 2019, 05:47:25 PM »
Legislating to stop No Deal, including options such as making No Deal illegal, or forcing the government to seek an extension or enshrining in law a backstop (ha ha) which legally mandates that if there is no workable solution by Oct 30, then A50 has to be revoked etc, surely have to be tried first before any dissolution for a GE. In that sense Change are correct; Parliament must be sitting while there's a chance to find a parliamentary way out of this, and so a GoNU must be certain before a VoNC.

I assumed that was taken as read.
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Offline oldfordie

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24510 on: August 16, 2019, 05:56:02 PM »
Agreed

On the other hand they seem pretty much 100% set on not voting for a Corbyn led GNU, which just adds to the mountain that option would have to climb (even more Tory votes that just don't seem to be there).

The odd one though is that they seem to be pushing for a confirmatory ref rather than an election, as nice as that would be I just don't see that happening as we have all discussed on here. Of course I suppose pretty much all the people left in Change are likely to lose their seats in a GE, so that might make a bit more sense on that basis!
I think change are only saying what many of us have said for the last few years, GEs aren't a true indicter on how the country feels about Brexit, the only true way of finding out how the country feels is another referendum, can the coalition organise one, the Tory MPs are probably gone after the next election so I imagine they would rather have the chance to bring about a referendum first as well.
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Offline ShakaHislop

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24511 on: August 16, 2019, 06:38:19 PM »
This, pretty much, non-story (it's aspirations of Cooper-Boles Part II without any details of a plan to realise them) does not answer the important question of whether Corbyn and Labour are also "open to" backing a government of national unity that does not have him as its leader.

Jeremy Corbyn 'open to' law forcing Brexit delay

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49373208
« Last Edit: August 16, 2019, 06:51:09 PM by ShakaHislop »

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24512 on: August 16, 2019, 06:47:18 PM »
Corbyn won't bring a VONC if it's going to fail. They key on that probably won't be Grieve et al, who are open to a GNU (just not led by Corbyn), but by the Change UK bloc who are putting the argument that a VONC followed by no GNU leaves us open to a Johnson-scheduled election, and that it would be better to at least have a sitting parliament to try other legislative means to avoid No Deal.
Do Change UK have a point? Or is it bollocks?

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24513 on: August 16, 2019, 07:50:03 PM »
Do Change UK have a point? Or is it bollocks?

They have a point that it's a possibility because no-one's tested what happens should a PM running a caretaker government (ie after the VoNC) decide to start ripping up conventions on stepping down and/or making huge decisions after losing a VoNC, as Johnson's government is giving out they will do.

edit: just some sourcing, quoted from this before (from p.12, https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/parliament-role-before-31-october-brexit-FINAL.pdf ) :

Quote
There are also outstanding questions about what might happen in the 14-day period after a no confidence motion is passed. The Fixed-term Parliaments Act only rules that a second vote of confidence in the government is needed during that time to avoid a general election. It does not say whether the government that lost the first vote should stay in place, or if it ought to resign.

The explanatory notes for the Act indicate that the period is intended to enable an alternative government to be formed, if one can be. If it cannot, it allows the incumbent prime minister to choose whether to call an election. (However, it is also a longstanding constitutional convention that a government that has lost the confidence of the House cannot continue indefinitely in office.)

But for a new government to be formed in this time, both the support for an alternative government needs to be clear and the incumbent prime minister needs to be willing to resign in favour of this alternative government.

There is a chance that the incumbent prime minister might seek to build support to pass a second vote of confidence or wait out the 14-day period and let an election happen, regardless of whether an alternative government could be found. To do the latter in the face of a clear parliamentary majority for an alternative government would go against constitutional convention that a government only survives if it maintains the confidence of the House.

If no alternative government is formed after the government lost the confidence of the House, then the incumbent government has a duty to act only in a caretaker capacity until a successful government is formed. However, it would be responsible for facilitating a general election in the face of an extremely tight timetable. For a new government to attempt to win a general election and be in place before the 31 October deadline, the no confidence process leading up to a fall of the government would have to begin as soon as Parliament returns from summer recess on 3 September. Even then it could require some flexibility in when an election took place, for example breaking the convention of holding elections on Thursdays. The process could be sped up if Parliament legislated for a shorter campaign period, but this would require the support of the government.

As the incumbent prime minister advises the Queen on the date for the election, Johnson could try to set a date after 31 October, thereby ensuring that the UK left without a deal first. However, any attempt by a prime minister who has just lost a no confidence vote and so, by convention, is acting only in a caretaker capacity to use their powers in this way would be hugely controversial, both politically and constitutionally. It might also be open to legal challenge.

If a new government came into office during the 14-day period following the initial vote of no confidence and wanted to avoid no deal, the new prime minister would still need to go to the EU and secure a further extension before the 31 October deadline.

Again, keep in mind the timeline. 17th/18th October is the European Council meeting where Johnson will or will not ask for and accept an extension. If MPs wait to see what happens, then earliest a VoNC can happen is 22nd October. Two weeks takes you past the 31st. Automatic operation of law on the 31st takes us out.
« Last Edit: August 16, 2019, 08:04:19 PM by Zeb »
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Offline BrandoLFC

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24514 on: August 16, 2019, 08:20:46 PM »
Study on Mass Media:


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Offline Jiminy Cricket

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24516 on: August 16, 2019, 09:46:59 PM »
Who knew?
Even so, it is rather scary and depressing for a study to seemingly confirm what we knew instinctively.

Offline redmark

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24517 on: August 16, 2019, 10:02:15 PM »
Do Change UK have a point? Or is it bollocks?
They have a point - but is it a point that needs making right now? Is it a point that may be self-fulfilling, if No Deal opponents talk up all the downsides of one approach or another? I'm not sure why all the various shades of No Deal opponents need to be focusing on their divisions quite so publicly.
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Offline Jiminy Cricket

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24518 on: August 16, 2019, 10:14:16 PM »
They have a point that it's a possibility because no-one's tested what happens should a PM running a caretaker government (ie after the VoNC) decide to start ripping up conventions on stepping down and/or making huge decisions after losing a VoNC, as Johnson's government is giving out they will do.

edit: just some sourcing, quoted from this before (from p.12, https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/parliament-role-before-31-october-brexit-FINAL.pdf ) :

Again, keep in mind the timeline. 17th/18th October is the European Council meeting where Johnson will or will not ask for and accept an extension. If MPs wait to see what happens, then earliest a VoNC can happen is 22nd October. Two weeks takes you past the 31st. Automatic operation of law on the 31st takes us out.
That's a rather depressing scenario. All the more so because it is not so fanciful.

What's happened in the UK and US has made me reevaluate who I consider my political enemies. I find that I have - in some ways - more in common with some of those on the right than I do with some on the left. Cultists and charlatans should be the true shared enemy of anyone who is not given to following people like Johnson and Corbyn; those who believe in democracy, facts and some reasonable discourse. Surely there must be a realignment of party politics after all this.
« Last Edit: August 16, 2019, 10:18:12 PM by Jiminy Cricket »

Offline Jiminy Cricket

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Re: Brexit Magic Flying Rainbow coloured Unicorn jolly tip-top-ho! Gosh! Thread.
« Reply #24519 on: August 16, 2019, 10:17:22 PM »
They have a point - but is it a point that needs making right now? Is it a point that may be self-fulfilling, if No Deal opponents talk up all the downsides of one approach or another? I'm not sure why all the various shades of No Deal opponents need to be focusing on their divisions quite so publicly.
And you have a point. But, weren't there already signals that Johnson might ignore law, convention, and all decency*?

* Well, that, no doubt, deserted him while he was a wee boy.