Topic: UK General Election - July 4th, here we go folks.

[oldfordie]

You can see from how low they are stooping just to find an angle to which they can run on how desperate they are to cling on to power even after 14 years of abject failure, some of them have never been in opposition don’t forget that when the inevitable happens they will absolutely tear themselves apart, the One Nation wing against the hard right, the hard right against the even harder right, finger pointing over the belief that ‘betraying Boris’ cost them power, those for the Rwanda policy and those against, staying in the EHCR or leaving, they are already beginning to fray as it is, once the discipline of being in government is removed they will absolutely explode.

Yep. Annihilation at the next election will give them the chance to seriously consider how they move forward. they will need hundreds of new candidates at the following election, do they pick another pack of embarrassing liars who will carry on where this lot left the party, maybe even more extreme so they can fight Reform. we will have to wait and see but am one of the few who thinks they have to move away from the extreme right. the blinkers are off for millions now. they only have 1 option for me. disown this government, admit they lost their way (they actually treated the publics intelligence with contempt).
I can see the Torys attacking Reform for selling a fantasy, everyone would love to implement Reforms policys but they are just a dream. how they won't promise the impossible just to win votes (yeah I know that's boll..)
The main point is they wont be able to out promise Reforms fantasy. voters will just mock them again for lying.
Lets hope they are fighting a impossible battle, voters have taken the blinkers off and never trust them again. we won't know the answer to this question for 5-10 yrs.

[Riquende]

Charles Regina?

Chuck Rex.

[Red Beret]

You can see from how low they are stooping just to find an angle to which they can run on how desperate they are to cling on to power even after 14 years of abject failure, some of them have never been in opposition don’t forget that when the inevitable happens they will absolutely tear themselves apart, the One Nation wing against the hard right, the hard right against the even harder right, finger pointing over the belief that ‘betraying Boris’ cost them power, those for the Rwanda policy and those against, staying in the EHCR or leaving, they are already beginning to fray as it is, once the discipline of being in government is removed they will absolutely explode.

Well if the polls are right, there won't be that many of them left to be in opposition anyway.

[west_london_red]

Yep. Annihilation at the next election will give them the chance to seriously consider how they move forward. they will need hundreds of new candidates at the following election, do they pick another pack of embarrassing liars who will carry on where this lot left the party, maybe even more extreme so they can fight Reform. we will have to wait and see but am one of the few who thinks they have to move away from the extreme right. the blinkers are off for millions now. they only have 1 option for me. disown this government, admit they lost their way (they actually treated the publics intelligence with contempt).
I can see the Torys attacking Reform for selling a fantasy, everyone would love to implement Reforms policys but they are just a dream. how they won't promise the impossible just to win votes (yeah I know that's boll..)
The main point is they wont be able to out promise Reforms fantasy. voters will just mock them again for lying.
Lets hope they are fighting a impossible battle, voters have taken the blinkers off and never trust them again. we won't know the answer to this question for 5-10 yrs.

I still think after the inevitable they will think they lost because they weren’t far right enough and move even further to the right, get another hammering at the following election and then disown the right wing madness.

[PaulF]

Yeah. This is kind of why I was thinking reform might be the opposition. Just too many idiots that will fall for that sort of nonsense.
How many 'safe' tory seats are there? Kind of heart of Essex types?  My guess is the voters in the likes of stoke and the heavy brexit areas will switch to reform.
Clacton?

[Red Beret]

Yeah. This is kind of why I was thinking reform might be the opposition. Just too many idiots that will fall for that sort of nonsense.
How many 'safe' tory seats are there? Kind of heart of Essex types?  My guess is the voters in the likes of stoke and the heavy brexit areas will switch to reform.
Clacton?

Reform won't be winning any seats in this election. But as far as "safe" Tory seats go, it's hard to say. In 1997, I think Labour had something like an average 12% swing. If that had been uniform across the country it would have given them a majority of roughly 100. But because they got parachutists into the Tory heartlands on 20% swings, they ended up with that huge 179 majority instead. Plus, the Referendum Party cleaved off votes in many critical seats - usually only a couple of thousand in any given seat, but enough to unseat a Tory.

Things are even worse for the Tories this time around because everyone is out to get them. Tactical voters between Labour and Lib-Dems will maximise the damage in median Tory seats, whilst moderate Conservatives switching to the LDs and hard right voters switch to Reform will do major damage in the really safe seats.

[Riquende]

My guess is the voters in the likes of stoke and the heavy brexit areas will switch to reform.

I'm not sure. Initially I thought the same, but then Reform isn't really appealing to the 'Boris Tory', who desparately wanted Brexit done, but in general is probably best described as socially conservative but economically redistributive, and were totally taken in by the 'Levelling Up' lies. I thought after Anderson there might be a few 2019 intake MPs crossing the floor as well, but it didn't pan out, as Reform are I now think a busted flush in that sort of area.

Reform are happy to play the culture war game to try to appeal a little to that slice of the electorate, but after that what else is there? They're not going to hoover up the Red Wall etc vote by offering radical right-wing economic policy. These people trusted Boris to fling them a load of dosh, and a lot of them seem to want him back to promise that again, despite nothing coming of it the first time.

Having said that, Frottage does have a similar sort of pull and so if he does fancy a return to 'Front Line Politics' then it probably boosts Reform a good couple of % across any strongly Leave-voting constituency.

[Red Beret]

At the moment, Reform is little more than a well mobilised pressure group. They've achieved in less than five years what took the Greens more than 40 years in terms of gaining support; but it's a broad, shallow support.

I think their long term game plan is to play kingmaker with the Tories, so in this election they're going to flex that muscle and show the Tories just how badly they can hurt them. Beyond that, I dunno. This country is thick, but it's not extreme; and as others have said, it's easy to promise the Earth when you've no chance of winning and don't have to worry about delivering.

[TepidT2O]

It’s interesting that Faridge talks about realigning the centre right.

I mean, centre right …centre right!

[Red Beret]

It’s interesting that Faridge talks about realigning the centre right.

I mean, centre right …centre right!

As in moving the centre to the right

[Sangria]

At the moment, Reform is little more than a well mobilised pressure group. They've achieved in less than five years what took the Greens more than 40 years in terms of gaining support; but it's a broad, shallow support.

I think their long term game plan is to play kingmaker with the Tories, so in this election they're going to flex that muscle and show the Tories just how badly they can hurt them. Beyond that, I dunno. This country is thick, but it's not extreme; and as others have said, it's easy to promise the Earth when you've no chance of winning and don't have to worry about delivering.

This is why any attempt by the left to minimise what a Labour government has done hurts the left overall. Once you've popularised the idea that Labour government has done nothing for the people, it's easy for the likes of Frottage and Johnson to promise change and get support. Hammer home the list of achievements of the 1997-2010 government, and 2016 doesn't happen. I used to be a Guardian reader, but in retrospect the references to the Pink Flag now anger me.

[afc tukrish]

As in moving the centre to the right

I had to read it a couple times to figure it out.

Happens a lot with Tepid's posts, to be fair...

[Fromola]

I'm not sure. Initially I thought the same, but then Reform isn't really appealing to the 'Boris Tory', who desparately wanted Brexit done, but in general is probably best described as socially conservative but economically redistributive, and were totally taken in by the 'Levelling Up' lies. I thought after Anderson there might be a few 2019 intake MPs crossing the floor as well, but it didn't pan out, as Reform are I now think a busted flush in that sort of area.

Reform are happy to play the culture war game to try to appeal a little to that slice of the electorate, but after that what else is there? They're not going to hoover up the Red Wall etc vote by offering radical right-wing economic policy. These people trusted Boris to fling them a load of dosh, and a lot of them seem to want him back to promise that again, despite nothing coming of it the first time.

Having said that, Frottage does have a similar sort of pull and so if he does fancy a return to 'Front Line Politics' then it probably boosts Reform a good couple of % across any strongly Leave-voting constituency.

Yeah, I said similar before. The red wall Tory vote in 2019 was a vote for Brexit and Boris appealed enough as well at the time, as he basically promised loads of money as well as being a personality they liked.

Although reform or the Tory right may appeal to them on culture war stuff, their economic ideas won't. These towns have been left to rot and the EU took enough of the blame and now that's gone. They won't trust the Tories economically after the Truss disaster and the way the public services have gone to shit under their watch. What good are tax cuts when nothing works as it is?

[oldfordie]

I still think after the inevitable they will think they lost because they weren’t far right enough and move even further to the right, get another hammering at the following election and then disown the right wing madness.

Many of those MPs will be gone if they take the predicted hammering, many Tory MPs are standing down because they can't face knocking on doors campaigning. they have good reason not too campaign as well,  the public have lost all respect for them,  that's down to the pathetic lies, passing the buck for there incompetence, corruption, nasty ideology. running the country down to the bone while ballooning the national debt. if they carry on as they are now then voters won't even listen to them, if they go even further to the right then the lies will have to continue, it's come to the point were they have to accept this all started when they tried to compete with UKIP who are just Reform with a different Rosette for a rebrand. even they had to ditch the stigma of UKIP.
When I say move away from the far right I mean economically.  the Torys were actually pro EU until after the Referendum, I can see them going back to being pro EU by the election after next as the country moves on from Brexit.
They will still be against the Unions but they wont be as confrontational as they are now, this Tory government have annihilated themselves from millions of people, NHS workers and their families, teachers, civil servants. the list is long.
carrying on as they are now won't win these millions back, they have to distance themselves from this government, they can only do this by ditching the ERG nutters.

There will definitely be a battle over the direction after they take a hammering and am sure some will argue what you say but I can't see them getting the support, they can't even get activists to campaign for them now, nobody wants to knock on doors telling voters they've built 40 new hospitals etc, they know they will face a torrent of abuse. the ERG nutters will not be able to argue moving to the right will bring back this support.
Immigration and culture wars will remain but the incompetent stop the boats bullshit will hopefully be ditched.
 

[Fromola]

Many of those MPs will be gone if they take the predicted hammering, many Tory MPs are standing down because they can't face knocking on doors campaigning. they have good reason not too campaign as well,  the public have lost all respect for them,  that's down to the pathetic lies, passing the buck for there incompetence, corruption, nasty ideology. running the country down to the bone while ballooning the national debt. if they carry on as they are now then voters won't even listen to them, if they go even further to the right then the lies will have to continue, it's come to the point were they have to accept this all started when they tried to compete with UKIP who are just Reform with a different Rosette for a rebrand. even they had to ditch the stigma of UKIP.
When I say move away from the far right I mean economically.  the Torys were actually pro EU until after the Referendum, I can see them going back to being pro EU by the election after next as the country moves on from Brexit.
They will still be against the Unions but they wont be as confrontational as they are now, this Tory government have annihilated themselves from millions of people, NHS workers and their families, teachers, civil servants. the list is long.
carrying on as they are now won't win these millions back, they have to distance themselves from this government, they can only do this by ditching the ERG nutters.

There will definitely be a battle over the direction after they take a hammering and am sure some will argue what you say but I can't see them getting the support, they can't even get activists to campaign for them now, nobody wants to knock on doors telling voters they've built 40 new hospitals etc, they know they will face a torrent of abuse. the ERG nutters will not be able to argue moving to the right will bring back this support.
Immigration and culture wars will remain but the incompetent stop the boats bullshit will hopefully be ditched.

They'll have to get more moderates back to be electable again. Boris basically kicked out all the moderates/anyone pro-EU, so the last few cabinets have all been Brexiteers which led to a massive brain drain which the county pays the price for. Before 2016 most Brexit Tories were headbangers on the back benches, now it's most of the parliamentary party and most of them will be gone either before or after this year's election. Will they start getting more moderates back, or will they just more Lee Andersons and Bravermans?

They went through the anti-EU leaders in Hague, IDS and Howard who were all a disaster and then got themselves back in power with Call Me Dave.

[oldfordie]

They'll have to get more moderates back to be electable again. Boris basically kicked out all the moderates/anyone pro-EU, so the last few cabinets have all been Brexiteers which led to a massive brain drain which the county pays the price for. Before 2016 most Brexit Tories were headbangers on the back benches, now it's most of the parliamentary party and most of them will be gone either before or after this year's election. Will they start getting more moderates back, or will they just more Lee Andersons and Bravermans?

They went through the anti-EU leaders in Hague, IDS and Howard who were all a disaster and then got themselves back in power with Call Me Dave.

Am not saying this for dramatics but I honestly don't know if the Torys are finished as the power they were. the Torys have always lied but the public always seemed to forget it all come the election, they always carried on listening to what they said. the difference today is something ive never seen even during the days of Thatcher, people have taken the blinkers off. the public now ignore the tired old deflection propaganda that's worked for decades. you see it in the faces of studio audiences when Tory MPs try to defend the Torys, when they try to lay the blame on others. nobody reacts positively, they just shake their heads and sigh or even mock them with laughter, people have stopped listening to them, the only unknown for me is whether this continues when the election after next comes or will the public reset and go back to being gullible, I think the last 14yrs and especially the last 8yrs have been a education that will stay with many people for a life time. the Tory MPs still don't understand the damage they have done to there party.
Will they bring back Bravermans. we shall see, a new leader like Braverman wont have to fight a election for 5 yrs or so so I suppose they could try it and see the reaction, if the public react as they do now then that's fine. they will be destroyed at the following election as well but they would never allow the likes of Braverman to remain leader if the polls don't improve dramatically, they would bring someone who voters respect. that would be someone very different from the far right.

[Red Beret]

What was it I read recently? Something about Tories saying they could handle being hated on the doorstep, but they couldn't face being laughed at?

[Nick110581]

At the moment, Reform is little more than a well mobilised pressure group. They've achieved in less than five years what took the Greens more than 40 years in terms of gaining support; but it's a broad, shallow support.

I think their long term game plan is to play kingmaker with the Tories, so in this election they're going to flex that muscle and show the Tories just how badly they can hurt them. Beyond that, I dunno. This country is thick, but it's not extreme; and as others have said, it's easy to promise the Earth when you've no chance of winning and don't have to worry about delivering.

Still think there will be the older generation who will vote Reform.

Daily Mail will push similar ideas to Brexit on them. Rather than acknowledge that it was a true disaster, they will say shit that doesn’t even impact the people they want to vote.

[Red Beret]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/17/our-chances-zero-and-getting-worse-inside-a-tory-edeath-spiral

Don't have time to share the full article, but a good read this. It highlights how the government could essentially disintegrate on the downslide towards a heavy election defeat.

Tory morale is in the toilet; they're already beaten and they know it. That kind of defeatism means discipline will slacken because they've got nothing to lose at this point. The party will descend further into petty bickering amongst themselves, and the country will suffer as a result.

As I said, it's a lame duck government. An honourable Prime Minister would call the election.

[Fromola]

Am not saying this for dramatics but I honestly don't know if the Torys are finished as the power they were. the Torys have always lied but the public always seemed to forget it all come the election, they always carried on listening to what they said. the difference today is something ive never seen even during the days of Thatcher, people have taken the blinkers off. the public now ignore the tired old deflection propaganda that's worked for decades. you see it in the faces of studio audiences when Tory MPs try to defend the Torys, when they try to lay the blame on others. nobody reacts positively, they just shake their heads and sigh or even mock them with laughter, people have stopped listening to them, the only unknown for me is whether this continues when the election after next comes or will the public reset and go back to being gullible, I think the last 14yrs and especially the last 8yrs have been a education that will stay with many people for a life time. the Tory MPs still don't understand the damage they have done to there party.
Will they bring back Bravermans. we shall see, a new leader like Braverman wont have to fight a election for 5 yrs or so so I suppose they could try it and see the reaction, if the public react as they do now then that's fine. they will be destroyed at the following election as well but they would never allow the likes of Braverman to remain leader if the polls don't improve dramatically, they would bring someone who voters respect. that would be someone very different from the far right.

There's also the erosion in trust of the media. They could usually spin a line via Murdoch, the Mail and their other media lackies to serve them. Now the newspapers are an ever shrinking market and you've got the likes of GB News and blue ticks on Twitter now pushing them further to the right which isn't where the public are - certainly not economically. Liz Truss - combined with the consequences of austerity - has also broke a lot of trust in conservative economics.

But the Tories were a joke from about 1994 to 2007 (the Blair years) and Blair occupied the centre ground and much of their base (even Murdoch). John Smith was also way ahead in the polls before he died. After Blair left Cameron started getting that cohort back, coinciding with the global crash which they could spin onto Labour.

[Yosser0_0]

I'm not convinced that this is going to be a Labour landslide victory, nor do I think the Tory voters are going to stay at home. The reason being that despite the losses in the by-elections, the Tories have still had tens of thousands of voters turn out for them. In a general election I think they will retain the votes of those loyal to them. For Labour and I think this is going under the radar a bit, they could have significant gains with the collapse of the SNP vote who have caused Labour problems in terms of splitting their vote. It seemed to me that Labour had pretty much given up in Scotland but they are only back in there with a chance due to the SNP losing their credibility rather than voters being inspired by what Labour has to offer.   

[Wabaloolah]

I'm not convinced that this is going to be a Labour landslide victory, nor do I think the Tory voters are going to stay at home. The reason being that despite the losses in the by-elections, the Tories have still had tens of thousands of voters turn out for them. In a general election I think they will retain the votes of those loyal to them. For Labour and I think this is going under the radar a bit, they could have significant gains with the collapse of the SNP vote who have caused Labour problems in terms of splitting their vote. It seemed to me that Labour had pretty much given up in Scotland but they are only back in there with a chance due to the SNP losing their credibility rather than voters being inspired by what Labour has to offer.   

I think you are wrong, the numbers that are being painted in the polls certainly flatter Labour and yes there may be some shy Tories hidden in the polls but this feels to me like a 1997 election rather than a 1992 one.

I've said it before but oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them. Voters don't have to be inspired by Labour if they turn in the government.

That's what's happening, double digit Labour leads since before Boris was axed and the polls are constantly showing an upper teens to low twenties Labour lead.

Labour will have a comfortable majority of in excess of 80 seats for sure, it's just the scale that's in doubt

[TepidT2O]

Seems Corbyn will stand in north Islington

[Riquende]

One knock on effect of the potential scale of Tory defeat is how many '1922 letters' it would take to kick off a leadership challenge, which could be significant for a party that's currently so divided and will be struggling for an identity during the next electoral cycle. Any hope they have of a 2029/30 win is going to hinge on sorting out their internal chaos in good time (which will be easier in opposition to be fair).

Obviously they can change the thresholds at any time, but if you ended up with the sort of numbers the most dreadful of polls are talking about, and left them with a rump of 24 MPs, then currently just 4 MPs would be required to submit letters.

If it was 100 MPs then only 15. If 120 then 18. 160 MPs would just need 24, so on.

On the flip side, with so many Tories getting the boot then a lot of the membership of their current 5 Families will be gutted out of Westminster anyway, so maybe things won't be quite so fractious.

[filopastry]

Seems Corbyn will stand in north Islington

I just wonder if he will run as an Indy or they build a new party for him, Abbott a few others maybe

[Red Beret]

I think you are wrong, the numbers that are being painted in the polls certainly flatter Labour and yes there may be some shy Tories hidden in the polls but this feels to me like a 1997 election rather than a 1992 one.

I've said it before but oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them. Voters don't have to be inspired by Labour if they turn in the government.

That's what's happening, double digit Labour leads since before Boris was axed and the polls are constantly showing an upper teens to low twenties Labour lead.

Labour will have a comfortable majority of in excess of 80 seats for sure, it's just the scale that's in doubt

As I said, the Tories have made enemies up and down the country; and their attempts to demonise any and everyone standing up for their rights as some kind of anti-British, Fifth Columnist extremist hellbent on destroying the country and handing it over to the EU has backfired massively.

High taxes, lousy services, a recession, sky high energy bills and food inflation has left people destitute and desperate - and all they see is a government harping on about Rwanda. They also see a government running scared of the whirlwind they're going to reap. Payback's gonna be a bitch.

Frankly, I don't think anybody has really enjoyed having the Tories in office for 14 years - even the people who voted for them. Labour just sucked at offering a credible alternative. Even Boris only really won in 2019 because of a combination of Corbyn and Brexit fatigue. Voters can't wait to be rid of the scum.

[filopastry]

I don't see Reform doing a deal with them this time either, they may actually be dreaming of beating them in vote % the way things are looking in some of the polls at the moment!

[Wabaloolah]

I don't see Reform doing a deal with them this time either, they may actually be dreaming of beating them in vote % the way things are looking in some of the polls at the moment!

agreed, I think after an election defeat, they may try and do some sort of deal that installs Frottage as leader of the Tories

[RedDeadRejection]

It’s interesting that Faridge talks about realigning the centre right.

I mean, centre right …centre right!

The centre right pocket of his nazi uniform more like.

Reform is this years UKIP. So I expect them to step aside at the last minute to endorse the Tories in a totally democratic way.

[Wabaloolah]

The centre right pocket of his nazi uniform more like.

Reform is this years UKIP. So I expect them to step aside at the last minute to endorse the Tories in a totally democratic way.

I don't think that happens and even if it did it wouldn't have the effect it did in 2019.

Brexit no longer in play as a positive and instead of Bouncy Boris they have Robotic Rishi who appeals to absolutely nobody

[RedDeadRejection]

I don't think that happens and even if it did it wouldn't have the effect it did in 2019.

Brexit no longer in play as a positive and instead of Bouncy Boris they have Robotic Rishi who appeals to absolutely nobody

yeah definitely wouldn't have the effect. I agree

[Red Beret]

agreed, I think after an election defeat, they may try and do some sort of deal that installs Frottage as leader of the Tories

Good luck with that, as he still won't be an MP.

I said before, this is the election Reform flex their muscles. Their messsage to the Tories will be clear - we can't win, but we can ensure you lose. So you do things our way.

I don't know if that's a viable long term strategy as Reform risk killing their golden goose. But for an election that's already lost, they have a gilt edged chance to control the Tories, parasite like.

[TepidT2O]

I just wonder if he will run as an Indy or they build a new party for him, Abbott a few others maybe

I imagine he will run under his peace and justice umbrella

[oldfordie]

I just wonder if he will run as an Indy or they build a new party for him, Abbott a few others maybe

It will be as a Indy, starting a new party puts all the SCG MPs in a position, give up the safety of standing as Labour MPs or standing as a Indy fighting in Corbyns new party, Corbyn had that safety for decades so he's not going to ruin it for the younger SCG MPs. it's quite telling really. as it's a Acid test

[Lusty]

It will be as a Indy, starting a new party puts all the SCG MPs in a position, give up the safety of standing as Labour MPs or standing as a Indy fighting in Corbyns new party, Corbyn had that safety for decades so he's not going to ruin it for the younger SCG MPs. it's quite telling really. as it's a Acid test

I think if anything it's likely that a new party would emerge after the election, not before. The way the numbers are going, they might end up as the official opposition.

If Corbyn wins as an independent he will almost certainly join them.

[killer-heels]

Abbott will definitely win her seat even if she stands as an independent. Corbyn will probably have a decent chance as well but he is at greater risk. Reckon Corbyn would definitely have lost by the Isreal-Palestine situation means he will get back in. The Momentum crowd will put all their efforts into his seat as they can but Abbott doesnt need them.

[oldfordie]

I think if anything it's likely that a new party would emerge after the election, not before. The way the numbers are going, they might end up as the official opposition.

If Corbyn wins as an independent he will almost certainly join them.

I think Corbyn will win as a Independent, so will Abbott. you may well be right about any new party being formed after the next election rather than before.
If they truly believed they will win voters over then why not before?

What do all the SCG MPs do if this new party is formed before the next election. if they stand as Labour MPs then they might as well say they don't believe the public will vote for them if they join Corbyns new party. if they did join and get hammered then that's the end of the talk of a Corbyn led left wing party being popular, this is too much of a Acid test, so I can't see any new party started by Corbyn being formed.

[Red Beret]

So do we think some Labour candidates will defect and form some kind of new party almost immediately after winning their seats in the upcoming election? Because I hope the constituency parties ensure they vet their potential candidates properly. That would be nothing short of voter deception.

[killer-heels]

So do we think some Labour candidates will defect and form some kind of new party almost immediately after winning their seats in the upcoming election? Because I hope the constituency parties ensure they vet their potential candidates properly. That would be nothing short of voter deception.

Very much doubt that. No chance they give up the opportunity of being in a governing party.

[Red Beret]

Very much doubt that. No chance they give up the opportunity of being in a governing party.

Hope you're right. We are talking about people who seem to prefer principled opposition rather than being in actual government.

If you're in a government of potentially 500 odd MPs, then your voice counts for very little. But in a media age where everyone would be happy to bash a Labour government, people will happily give critics airtime, no matter how moronic their talking points are.