Author Topic: UK General Election - Mordaunt, Mogg and Mad Liz all gone - STARMERGEDDON  (Read 241329 times)

Online Red Beret

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Mods, feel free to amend, adjust or delete as felt necessary.

There's been a lot of talk in the Labour thread about the potential for an early election, voting age etc. Rather than that thread get dragged off topic, I though it might just be sensible to set up a new one for election-related news involved all the parties. We still have upcoming by-elections, local elections, and opinion polls to discuss, after all.

This might also be a good spot to talk about manifestos and what we might like to see. Personally, I'm hoping Labour offer a commitment to re-nationalise the railways, although getting Starmer to commit to anything at this stage is understandably difficult. ;)  But if they secure a super-majority, I would definitely like to see this considered.

In any case, I'll leave this post here. Feel free to add to it if you so wish. :)

EDIT: 29 May - adding a quote that links to some useful websites offering polling. Thanks to TheShanklyGates :)

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK
https://twitter.com/britainelects

Both of these are good. They also both have predictive models with the latest polls fed in.

https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/05/britainpredicts
« Last Edit: July 5, 2024, 04:55:45 pm by Red Beret »
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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2023, 12:03:58 am »
Personally I think this thread is a great idea, too much duplication in both the Labour and Tory threads and I think a General Election is a lot closer than people think
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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2023, 10:07:12 pm »
It’s hard to say, when is it most electorally beneficial for the Tories to hold it? I’m guessing they will wait as long as they can in the hope inflation comes down and there’s some miracle, maybe the war in Ukraine ends and fuel costs tumble down or interest rates start to come down and people start to feel better off, I don’t see how an early election helps the Tories unless there is some kind of correlation between warmer weather encouraging the grey Tory vote to come out in greater numbers then in the winter.
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Offline flemingcool

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #3 on: October 21, 2023, 10:22:47 pm »
They know they are toast.  Scorched earth now.  New long term private contracts for private companies running “public” services.  Sell off the last of the family silver.  They’ll drag it out to the end.

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #4 on: October 21, 2023, 10:29:29 pm »
Nobody wants a GE according to Rishi.

PM told me at conference a GE is ‘not what the country wants’


 > On Monday More in Common will release a poll showing voters now want an early GE - 73% say shld be b4 end of May, while 18 % say this year. Only 15% want to wait until next autumn


Rishi Sunak has told Sky's @BethRigby that a general election is "not what the country wants", as well as insisting he is unafraid of going to the polls
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1715811061767549301?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1715811061767549301%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=
You can tell his dad was a toolmaker. That’s an impressive cabinet he’s put together..

Offline Circa1892

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #5 on: October 21, 2023, 10:38:11 pm »
Personally I think this thread is a great idea, too much duplication in both the Labour and Tory threads and I think a General Election is a lot closer than people think

There’s a very slim possibility of May (logistics), but realistically we’re at least a year away.

The Tories, whilst they’re broken, still have a massive majority and they would obviously lose. There’s just zero incentive.

Offline thaddeus

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #6 on: October 21, 2023, 10:53:57 pm »
They know they are toast.  Scorched earth now.  New long term private contracts for private companies running “public” services.  Sell off the last of the family silver.  They’ll drag it out to the end.
I agree.

We've already seen many Tory MPs announcing they're stepping down at the next election and I'm sure they're just the tip of the iceberg of Tories looking at their next career move.  They will look to feather their own nests, and lay as many traps and create as many restrictions for the next government as possible.

We might see a few "moonshot" policies - probably in the realm of culture wars nonsense - to win back some voters before the GE but they looked like a defeated party at their conference a few weeks ago.  The two by-elections results will hardly have been reinvigorating for them.

The sooner we have a GE the better but I agree with Circa1892 that the Tories have not motive to call an early election.


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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2023, 07:55:32 pm »
I agree.

We've already seen many Tory MPs announcing they're stepping down at the next election and I'm sure they're just the tip of the iceberg of Tories looking at their next career move.  They will look to feather their own nests, and lay as many traps and create as many restrictions for the next government as possible.

We might see a few "moonshot" policies - probably in the realm of culture wars nonsense - to win back some voters before the GE but they looked like a defeated party at their conference a few weeks ago.  The two by-elections results will hardly have been reinvigorating for them.

The sooner we have a GE the better but I agree with Circa1892 that the Tories have not motive to call an early election.



The only motive Sunak may have is if enough letters go into the 1922 - he may feel that he has no other instrument to use but call such an election.
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Online Red Beret

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #8 on: October 22, 2023, 09:10:33 pm »
The only motive Sunak may have is if enough letters go into the 1922 - he may feel that he has no other instrument to use but call such an election.

Well ultimately the letters are a confidence vote, just not one where the other parties get a say. At this point it might be the only leverage Sunak has.
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Offline ljycb

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #9 on: October 22, 2023, 09:40:00 pm »
Do the boats have any play in this for the Tories? Given that winter will probably see less boats crossing the channel, maybe the Tories will see that as something to hang their hat on and go to the polls in the spring before there is an uptake in channel crossings?

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #10 on: October 22, 2023, 09:57:07 pm »
Do the boats have any play in this for the Tories? Given that winter will probably see less boats crossing the channel, maybe the Tories will see that as something to hang their hat on and go to the polls in the spring before there is an uptake in channel crossings?
Yeah, definitely, it's a incentive to hold a early election. crossings will dramatically drop when the Weather starts to get bad. that boast won't work when the weather improves coming out of Winter.
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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #11 on: October 22, 2023, 10:14:03 pm »
There’s no way there will be an early general election after the total annihilation they’ve just received in the two by-elections.

If they’d clung on to one like they did in Uxbridge?  Maybe, just maybe then.. but it’s clear that Uxbridge was a one off (although still a dreadful result for them) and that it didn’t fit the trend if other results.
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Offline TSC

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #12 on: October 22, 2023, 10:23:16 pm »
No chance there’ll be an ‘early’ election.  Unless something completely unforeseen happens, and given the current vagaries impacting the global political picture you wouldn’t bet against that, the Tories are toast.

Those nearing pension age on the Tory side will simply quit, as is evident already.  Those who are relatively ‘young’ will be calling in private sector favours aka Quid-pro-quo. Payback time.  And more ‘scorched earth’ policies incoming, to leave Labour with next to feck all (financially) to play with.

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #13 on: October 23, 2023, 04:51:49 am »
Well ultimately the letters are a confidence vote, just not one where the other parties get a say. At this point it might be the only leverage Sunak has.

The year is up, & Tory MPs can now send in no confidence letters to the 1922 committee, apparently rumours doing the rounds there are Tory MPs are going to send in no confidence letters.
 

Sunak doesn't want an election right now because he knows the Tories will lose heavily, & he's too much of a coward to grant one.
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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #14 on: October 23, 2023, 08:44:58 am »
The year is up, & Tory MPs can now send in no confidence letters to the 1922 committee, apparently rumours doing the rounds there are Tory MPs are going to send in no confidence letters.
 

Sunak doesn't want an election right now because he knows the Tories will lose heavily, & he's too much of a coward to grant one.

Tory logic is akin to Everton logic. Sunak would rather be axed as PM by his own party rather than fight for his job by threatening to call an election the party will lose regardless of when it's called. When why the hell should he care how the Tories end up, when he's already a rich bugger, milked the economy for billions for his mates, and can fuck off to America any time he likes?

I'd say he must know what we know - that his party is un-leaderable, and any potential replacement of him can offer only a marginal improvement at best. But these types live in a bubble; like when Cleggy was genuinely shocked at the Lib Dem collapse in 2015, when anyone with half a brain called it the moment he threw his lot in with the pig fucker and shafted students over tuition fees.

Who knows what's going on inside the head of these wealthy fools who don't experience reality as we do?
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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #15 on: October 23, 2023, 09:07:06 am »
Do the boats have any play in this for the Tories? Given that winter will probably see less boats crossing the channel, maybe the Tories will see that as something to hang their hat on and go to the polls in the spring before there is an uptake in channel crossings?

That will make no difference. Sunak has given up on results defining his Premiership. Now its about what he will do.

Offline TepidT2O

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #16 on: October 23, 2023, 09:10:01 am »
Want is funny is that in many ways, Sunak should be facing a leadership vote by now.  The numbers are utterly awful.

But the Tories are resigned to their fate. They’ve only got stupid racist gimmicks left. No drive, no ambition, no nothing
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Offline filopastry

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #17 on: October 23, 2023, 09:16:33 am »
Sunak was actually more popular than the party for a while, but his ratings have fallen back as time has gone by.

I doubt there is any appetite for replacing him, who would want the job anyway with a near certain heavy defeat on the horizon? Far better for the ambitious to sit on the sidelines and let Sunak take the flak for the result and then make your move afterwards.

I find it hard to imagine them calling a GE before next autumn, if you're in govt why throw it away on near certain defeat when the polls look this bad, I guess they hang on and hope a miracle comes to their rescue.

It get tricky to wait beyond next autumn though as you get another near certain NHS winter crisis to deal with.
« Last Edit: October 23, 2023, 09:21:10 am by filopastry »

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #18 on: October 23, 2023, 09:21:44 am »
Sunak was actually more popular than the party for a while, but his ratings have fallen back as time has gone by.

I doubt there is any appetite for replacing him, who would want the job anyway with a near certain heavy defeat on the horizon? Far better for the ambitious to sit on the sidelines and let Sunak take the flak for the result and then make your move afterwards.

Sunak f*cked it himself.  He started as the "steady" candidate, which worked fairly well, then he made some awful decisions, and has rebranded himself as the "change" candidate.

It was a huge own goal!

He's permanently f*cked now!

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #19 on: October 23, 2023, 09:28:45 am »
Only miracle the Tories are praying for is that their defeat is catastrophic rather than apocalyptic.

Should give the job back to Lizzy till the end of the season. :thumbup
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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #20 on: October 23, 2023, 11:28:36 am »
I think there will be some shenanigans after the local elections next year.  By then, if you're a Tory MP, even in one of the safest seats, you've got to come up with something if you want to save your job.  I could see some letters going in or a leadership challenge from the nutter wing, and Sunak being forced to call an election.

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #21 on: October 23, 2023, 11:32:01 am »
Nobody wants a GE according to Rishi.

PM told me at conference a GE is ‘not what the country wants’


The Tories and the 'Establishment' they've always represented, have forever viewed themselves as 'the country'

It's always been a massive problem

« Last Edit: October 23, 2023, 11:46:00 am by Nobby Reserve »
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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #22 on: October 23, 2023, 11:44:03 am »
Given the circumstances. would a new leader be expected to resign after the inevitable election defeat
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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #23 on: October 23, 2023, 11:45:25 am »
I agree.

We've already seen many Tory MPs announcing they're stepping down at the next election and I'm sure they're just the tip of the iceberg of Tories looking at their next career move.  They will look to feather their own nests, and lay as many traps and create as many restrictions for the next government as possible.

We might see a few "moonshot" policies - probably in the realm of culture wars nonsense - to win back some voters before the GE but they looked like a defeated party at their conference a few weeks ago.  The two by-elections results will hardly have been reinvigorating for them.

The sooner we have a GE the better but I agree with Circa1892 that the Tories have not motive to call an early election.



The scale of demoralisation and resignation amongst Tories shouldn't be underestimated. There's no charismatic leader - or even senior Tory figure - to rally behind. Just an incompetant pipsqueak as leader and a neo-Nazi Home Secretary. When the most visible Tories getting airtime are thick-as-pigshit cranks like '30p Lee' and 'Gob' Gullis, it's not a great look to be presenting.

The sensible, economy/business-minded Tories were driven out by the Brexit zealots, and there was an influx of barely-vetted idiots from seats the Tories would never normally expect to win. Other Tories that we once considered not moderate but are now relatively the grown-ups, like Hunt, are bailing out or rumoured to be considering it.

How do we think all of that energises Tory activists? Will those Tories out canvassing have any heart in it? (I know the Tories, with their huge donations from tax dodgers, the property industry, private equity parasites, etc hire people to leaflet-drop, but it's always been mostly activists doing most of the legwork)

They're a dead government walking.

I just hope they are unable to get much more damaging legislation through Parliament before they're obliterated like the vermin they are.
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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #24 on: October 23, 2023, 11:47:55 am »
I think there will be some shenanigans after the local elections next year.  By then, if you're a Tory MP, even in one of the safest seats, you've got to come up with something if you want to save your job.  I could see some letters going in or a leadership challenge from the nutter wing, and Sunak being forced to call an election.
yep that's exactly what I think will happen, there'll be an election in June or possibly September/October, there'll also be a Spring budget full of bribes and promises.

There's no way they hang on until January 2025

However if something serious happens to them I will eat my own cock.


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Offline PatriotScouser

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #25 on: October 24, 2023, 10:09:45 am »
The Labour NEC and politicians are expecting a May/June GE (this was before last Thursday) from the conversations I had with people.

For 4 main reasons.

1) Tories expect to win the court case regarding the boats and because of that but much more mainly the weather, there will be a decrease of boats crossing the channel. The tories will say it will be because of them, but in reality once summer comes and it gets warmer it will increase again. Therefore some tories believe there is a certain window of opportunity in the spring/early summer in which it would be advantageous to hold a GE


2) March budget. Tories will attempt to trap Labour by cutting income tax in the budget in March. So tories are hoping Labour will have to announce with these tax cuts how they will spend money. Will they have to raise taxes? So the tories will be looking to trap Keir and Labour.

3) Divisions within the tory party. Sunak can hardly control the different wings of the party and as such will use a GE or a threat of a GE in May/June to keep those MPs in check.

4) Tories want to avoid a GE at the same time as the US election

This is first and second hand information I received from a couple of MPs and a couple of people on the NEC and also from my MP report back to us. They are gearing up for a May/June election.

But last Thursday's results may have spooked Sunak and his team though. So it could well be another year yet, sadly.

(I had put this in the tory thread by mistake!)

Offline thaddeus

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #26 on: October 24, 2023, 10:21:34 am »
The Labour NEC and politicians are expecting a May/June GE (this was before last Thursday) from the conversations I had with people.

...
May/June 2024 would be OK.  It would fit with the idea of getting the casual Tories out voting when the sun's shining.

If they do indeed fight the election on "stopping the boats" with Braverman front and centre it's going to be a horrible campaign.  I just hope people don't get sucked into the nonsense in the way there were with the EU referendum.

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #27 on: October 24, 2023, 10:46:25 am »
The sad irony of all this is that Cameron threw the country in front of the Brexit bus, to try to neutralise the widening schism in the Tory party over the EU*, and prevent the right-wing vote being split with UKIP, increasing the likelihood of a Labour election victory.

And now we have Reform typically polling 6-8%, which is majority comprised of right-wing voters.

Brexit was for nothing




* although, as we've seen with the emergence of hard-right zealots like Braverman, Reet-Smug, Badenoch, etc, it was about much more than just the EU
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Offline tubby

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #28 on: October 24, 2023, 10:52:28 am »
4) Tories want to avoid a GE at the same time as the US election

What's the thinking behind this?
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Offline thaddeus

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #29 on: October 24, 2023, 11:00:49 am »
What's the thinking behind this?
People might realise the Tories are employing the same tactics and policies as Trump?

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #30 on: October 24, 2023, 11:14:55 am »
May/June 2024 would be OK.  It would fit with the idea of getting the casual Tories out voting when the sun's shining.

If they do indeed fight the election on "stopping the boats" with Braverman front and centre it's going to be a horrible campaign.  I just hope people don't get sucked into the nonsense in the way there were with the EU referendum.

This GE is going to be horrible for anyone who is a minority in this country, it is going to be utter gutter politics.

We will see lots of 3 word simple slogans that have hate the reason behind it but seem reasonable without the context.

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #31 on: October 24, 2023, 11:17:41 am »
What's the thinking behind this?

Not enough propaganda bots for both, at the same time.

The same players will be campaigning behind the scenes, for both Trump, and the Tories.
« Last Edit: October 24, 2023, 11:19:23 am by Red-Soldier »

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #32 on: October 24, 2023, 12:07:09 pm »
This GE is going to be horrible for anyone who is a minority in this country


Like Tories, for instance?

 :P
A Tory, a worker and an immigrant are sat round a table. There's a plate of 10 biscuits in the middle. The Tory takes 9 then turns to the worker and says "that immigrant is trying to steal your biscuit"

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #33 on: November 17, 2023, 04:14:20 pm »
Pulled from the Guardian's Live News.

Six charts that show why Tories can't win general election (probably)

Reports about political polling tend to focus on voting intention – how many people will vote for each party – and many of us treat these figures with some caution. That is partly because the numbers can change quickly. And party because, even when the trend is sustained, as it is at the moment, the figures can be hard to believe. There aren’t many people at Westminster who think Labour will be 22 points ahead on polling day. That is why other polling questions can sometimes be more revealing. Today Ipsos has published some polling on attitudes to public services and, for the government, the findings are beyond abysmal. You should never say for certain that a party can’t win a general election – but it’s Friday afternoon, so here goes; if these figures are right, the election is already over.

1) Almost 80% of Britons believe public services have got worse over the past five years, and only 5% think they have got better. Given that it is hard to get 80% of people to agree on anything, this is an astonishing figure. This is much, much worse than equivalent figures during the austerity years. Another way of putting it would be to say that, for every one person who thinks public services have got better over the past five years, there are almost 16 people saying they have got worse. In 2015, for every one person saying public services were improving, there were only three people saying they were not. (The polling is based on subjective assessments, but the 78% are right; the Institute for Government recently published a report saying public service are getting a lot worse.)



2) People also continue to expect public services to get worse. The respondents weren’t told who would be in power over the next few years, and so people answering this question might not be making a party political judgement. But it suggests that 1) people are not convinced that Rishi Sunak is going to produce miraculous change in public services and; 2) when offered a choice at an election, the party that can present itself as offering change will be in a good place.



3) Most people have no faith in the government’s ability to improve the economy in the long term. Only 25% of people think government policies will improve the economy in the long term, and 68% disagree. These are the worst figures for any government on this question since Ipsos started asking it in July 1980. The only governments that have done almost as badly on this measure were John Major’s before his 1997 defeat and Gordon Brown’s before his 2010 defeat. (People aren’t always right; by the end of the Major government, the economy was doing rather well. But it’s perceptions that matter when people vote.)



4) And people have even less faith in the government’s ability to improve public services. Only 19% of people think government policies will improve the state of public services in the long term, and 75% of people think government policies will make them worse. These are the worst figures for any government on this question since Ipsos started asking it in 2001.



5) Some 50% of people think public services would improve under Labour, and 37% of people think the economy would improve. While not as good as they might be, these figures are decisively better than the equivalent ones for the government. People clearly do not think both main parties are the same.



6) Some 29% of people think they would be better off under a Labour government, against 16% who say they would be better off under a Tory one. This is a key measure, and Labour’s lead on it is substantial.

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #34 on: November 17, 2023, 04:23:07 pm »

3) Most people have no faith in the government’s ability to improve the economy in the long term. Only 25% of people think government policies will improve the economy in the long term, and 68% disagree. These are the worst figures for any government on this question since Ipsos started asking it in July 1980. The only governments that have done almost as badly on this measure were John Major’s before his 1997 defeat and Gordon Brown’s before his 2010 defeat. (People aren’t always right; by the end of the Major government, the economy was doing rather well. But it’s perceptions that matter when people vote.)



4) And people have even less faith in the government’s ability to improve public services. Only 19% of people think government policies will improve the state of public services in the long term, and 75% of people think government policies will make them worse. These are the worst figures for any government on this question since Ipsos started asking it in 2001.






The 3. graph shows clearly that governments fail to improve the economy/society for the benefit of 'the people'. Each of the last three 'governments' (I won't differentiate between different PMs from within the same party) have followed the same path - optimism for the first couple of years gives way to mild disillusionment followed by broader cynicism then "these are shite, let's try the other lot again", and so the cycle continues.

The corporate-capitalism model creates too large a proportion of people who do not benefit - or, rather, don't perceive they benefit sufficiently, especially in relation to others - from the economic activity of the country.

A Tory, a worker and an immigrant are sat round a table. There's a plate of 10 biscuits in the middle. The Tory takes 9 then turns to the worker and says "that immigrant is trying to steal your biscuit"

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #35 on: November 17, 2023, 04:38:02 pm »
The "make no difference" brigade is really bothersome in those charts.
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Offline Nobby Reserve

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #36 on: November 17, 2023, 04:49:47 pm »
The "make no difference" brigade is really bothersome in those charts.


To some extent, yes. But many people don't see that much of an improvement in their own personal circumstances, regardless of government.
A Tory, a worker and an immigrant are sat round a table. There's a plate of 10 biscuits in the middle. The Tory takes 9 then turns to the worker and says "that immigrant is trying to steal your biscuit"

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #37 on: November 18, 2023, 01:25:49 am »

To some extent, yes. But many people don't see that much of an improvement in their own personal circumstances, regardless of government.

It is a commonly held view. I think it's completely wrong personally, but it's understandable in the world we live. Most people either work for not enough money or don't work for even less, and that has near enough always been the case.

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #38 on: November 18, 2023, 01:03:11 pm »
I'm going November '24. Think Tories will hold on through summer and go for a murky dark election day. Council and elections staff need a minimum of 6 weeks to hold a GE.

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Re: UK General Election 24/25?
« Reply #39 on: November 18, 2023, 01:17:39 pm »
I'm going November '24. Think Tories will hold on through summer and go for a murky dark election day. Council and elections staff need a minimum of 6 weeks to hold a GE.


I tend to think Nov as well, after that they really are dicing with a winter crisis in the NHS dominating the headlines