Author Topic: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE (Read 3508062 times)

Peabee · « **Reply #10480 on:** March 21, 2020, 03:43:42 am »

Quote from: Max_powers on March 21, 2020, 03:37:22 am

1% increase may be exponential but it will allow patients to recover and beds to be emptied before the next batch of patients comes in. (Ie. flattening the curve) However, I still think had more strict action been taken earlier 1-2 months would have been enough to stop the spread as with China and Korea cases.

Of course, I was just stating what exponential meant versus flattening meant. 1% daily growth of 10000 is better than 1% of 1millon, say, which would still be 10000 extra per day. When numbers get to that scale, we need to get that percentage even lower which is harder later on.

Zeb · « **Reply #10481 on:** March 21, 2020, 03:44:10 am »

Quote from: Peabee on March 21, 2020, 03:37:57 am

Just edited again as I was talking about Italy until my final sentence, not sure why I used “we” !

The U.K. are are at just under 26% daily increase on average for the last week. That’s a 3 day doubling time. We would be on 32000 a week on Sunday left at that rate! This is recorded cases, which are serious enough for testing of course. Likely to be many people at home.

So x10 is ballpark to get to 320k a week. Not sure if it's too late or too early for another gin.

One of the things which I have wondered about is whether Italy's inability to make lockdown work quickly enough and effectively enough may have helped influence our own switch in approach. Isn't there a point, as Max Powers kind of hints at there, where your best lockdown is effectively just a very long term mitigation so the whole 'release and clamp down' makes a whole lot of sense?

Peabee · « **Reply #10482 on:** March 21, 2020, 03:53:10 am »

Quote from: Zeb on March 21, 2020, 03:44:10 am

So x10 is ballpark to get to 320k a week. Not sure if it's too late or too early for another gin.

One of the things which I have wondered about is whether Italy's inability to make lockdown work quickly enough and effectively enough may have helped influence our own switch in approach. Isn't there a point, as Max Powers kind of hints at there, where your best lockdown is effectively just a very long term mitigation so the whole 'release and clamp down' makes a whole lot of sense?

Sorry, I meant there would be 32000 cases on the Sunday after this one.

If it continued at current growth, it would be at 256000 in 18 days (2^(18/3) * 4000), so yeah it is important that people follow the advice. It would be at 1 million in 24 days.

That won’t happen if we take the advice.

However, there’s lots we don’t know and we don’t know if growth would continue at that rate naturally anyway. We haven’t seen any one country go above 100k without intervention.

Zeb · « **Reply #10483 on:** March 21, 2020, 03:57:33 am »

Ta. And, of course, future isn't set.

A decent general resource are the MRC reports, for anyone who's not seen them yet: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/

Quote

93% of adults reported personally taking at least one measure to protect themselves from COVID-19 infection, including:

83% washed their hands more frequently;
52% avoided crowded areas;
50% avoided social events;
36% avoided public transport;
31% avoided going out;
11% avoided going to work;
28% avoided travel to areas outside the UK.

There is high reported ability and willingness to self-isolate for 7 days* if advised to do so by a health professional (88%).

Quote

71% reported changing behaviour in response to government guidance. The figure (53%) was lower for young adults (18-24 year-olds).

Hand washing (63%), avoiding persons with symptoms (61%), and covering your sneeze (53%) were more likely to be perceived as ‘very effective’ measures to prevent COVID-19 spread than common social distancing measures (avoiding going out (31%), to work (23%), to shops (16%) or to schools (19%)).

Like watching two oil tankers and wondering which will turn fastest.

Zeb · « **Reply #10484 on:** March 21, 2020, 04:27:12 am »

A useful hint towards what is under the surface in a large country. This is the USA. Various academics got together and thought they'd start tracking reports of flu-like illnesses.

Flu tests are saying 'no' but 'flu' cases going up?

A UK version is here for those who get symptoms, or even those who are perky fine right now to report it.

Peabee · « **Reply #10485 on:** March 21, 2020, 04:54:11 am »

Quote from: Zeb on March 21, 2020, 04:27:12 am

A useful hint towards what is under the surface in a large country. This is the USA. Various academics got together and thought they'd start tracking reports of flu-like illnesses.

Flu tests are saying 'no' but 'flu' cases going up?

A UK version is here for those who get symptoms, or even those who are perky fine right now to report it.

I followed another link on that site to this

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/863975/Weekly_national_influenza_report_week_6_2020.pdf

Look on the second page with the chart showing respiratory outbreaks by institution. Schools start off with higher incidents than care homes, until after 4 weeks when care homes grow, then school breaks for xmas and very few after that. Obviously, correlation isn’t causation but it shows there’s a reason to look at whether schools exacerbate outbreaks. Whether that’s true in an epidemic...

LanceLink!!!!! · « **Reply #10486 on:** March 21, 2020, 05:11:51 am »

Spoke to a friend last night who is a manager at the local A & E department, Treliske Hospital, Truro, Cornwall.

She said they've had 2 fatalities already, capacity is already at 100% and patients are not allowed any visits, no exceptions. More scary is that they've had a briefing and have been told to expect up to 4,000 deaths, just in that hospital.

Pubs closed last night though, so that should help.

Zeb · « **Reply #10487 on:** March 21, 2020, 05:21:20 am »

Quote from: Peabee on March 21, 2020, 04:54:11 am

I followed another link on that site to this

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/863975/Weekly_national_influenza_report_week_6_2020.pdf

Look on the second page with the chart showing respiratory outbreaks by institution. Schools start off with higher incidents than care homes, until after 4 weeks when care homes grow, then school breaks for xmas and very few after that. Obviously, correlation isn’t causation but it shows there’s a reason to look at whether schools exacerbate outbreaks. Whether that’s true in an epidemic...

It's definitely true for flu, and is part of flu pandemic planning as well as just how normal flu seasons are seen with that drop off when the holidays begin. Question on this one was whether it remained true and whether the impact of closing schools out of planned term times was outweighed by closing them earlier. Here's the advice the government were getting in Mid-Feb (pdf). Useful bookmark for evidence if you've not seen it yet.

Zeb · « **Reply #10488 on:** March 21, 2020, 05:26:35 am »

Quote from: LanceLink!!!!! on March 21, 2020, 05:11:51 am

Spoke to a friend last night who is a manager at the local A & E department, Treliske Hospital, Truro, Cornwall.

She said they've had 2 fatalities already, capacity is already at 100% and patients are not allowed any visits, no exceptions. More scary is that they've had a briefing and have been told to expect up to 4,000 deaths, just in that hospital.

Pubs closed last night though, so that should help.

Oof. That's sobering. Is Truro the central hub for that many people? I know round Looe you end up in Plymouth instead.

LanceLink!!!!! · « **Reply #10489 on:** March 21, 2020, 05:47:37 am »

Quote from: Zeb on March 21, 2020, 05:26:35 am

Oof. That's sobering. Is Truro the central hub for that many people? I know round Looe you end up in Plymouth instead.

I'm guessing that Treliske serves around 300,000 people, that's off the top of my head though.

This is in a rural area, low population density and low public transport use.

Peabee · « **Reply #10490 on:** March 21, 2020, 05:51:49 am »

Quote from: LanceLink!!!!! on March 21, 2020, 05:11:51 am

Spoke to a friend last night who is a manager at the local A & E department, Treliske Hospital, Truro, Cornwall.

She said they've had 2 fatalities already, capacity is already at 100% and patients are not allowed any visits, no exceptions. More scary is that they've had a briefing and have been told to expect up to 4,000 deaths, just in that hospital.

Pubs closed last night though, so that should help.

They expecting over 1% of the population to die in that area? Wtf. Please tell me that’s part of some worse case scenario based on everyone being infected?

Just checked and that hospital serves 430000, so they’re expecting maybe everyone gets this virus.

LanceLink!!!!! · « **Reply #10491 on:** March 21, 2020, 05:59:47 am »

Quote from: Peabee on March 21, 2020, 05:51:49 am

They expecting over 1% of the population to die in that area? Wtf. Please tell me that’s part of some worse case scenario based on everyone being infected?

Would assume, and hope, it's worst case scenario.

It's fucking frightening.

Peabee · « **Reply #10492 on:** March 21, 2020, 06:00:04 am »

I’ve got a mate who works in stats with govt. just WhatsApp’d him. Yeah, they’re planning for all of us to catch this. At least they’re not underestimating this virus now.

TheTeflonJohn · « **Reply #10493 on:** March 21, 2020, 06:00:49 am »

Quote from: Capon Debaser on March 20, 2020, 06:33:56 pm

Got to know a lad the last few months who’s been homeless for a number of years. He’s tried applying for money etc to get him through these times and has been told he needs forms of I.D to be able to get anything. Hasn’t got a jot as he’s been homeless etc. Apparen5ly he’s been t9ld he’s got some weird interview to prove who he is but he’s told them time and time again he’s got nothing to his name the poor bastard. He’s telling me this story an then burst into fucking tears. Grown fella who’s had everything then lost of cos of marriage breaking down,losing his job then his kids not wanting to know him cos of his addictions etc..... and you think your shits bad

Fuckin ell mate, send me his number, email add and post code and I`ll drop him a few quid.

Seriously though, that`s fucking heart breaking.

Peabee · « **Reply #10494 on:** March 21, 2020, 06:03:06 am »

They’re pretty sure about the 1% too. Let’s hope it’s no higher than that.

Zeb · « **Reply #10495 on:** March 21, 2020, 06:04:01 am »

100% won't be getting it any time soon, I wouldn't have thought. Although the rural roads Lance talks about will make reaching people in time, with an overstretched service, really rough. One of the reasons I wasn't keen about my partner moving back down there to be with her mum because even close to the motorway straight to Plymouth is a distance when you're on the coast.

Peabee · « **Reply #10496 on:** March 21, 2020, 06:04:11 am »

Quote from: TheTeflonJohn on March 21, 2020, 06:00:49 am

Fuckin ell mate, send me his number, email add and post code and I`ll drop him a few quid.

Seriously though, that`s fucking heart breaking.

That’s sobering. We worry about ourselves and family but there’s people in much worse situations.

LanceLink!!!!! · « **Reply #10497 on:** March 21, 2020, 06:07:18 am »

Quote from: Peabee on March 21, 2020, 06:03:06 am

They’re pretty sure about the 1% too. Let’s hope it’s no higher than that.

That means 80k fatalities in London then (I'm guessing Londons population)

How the hell have China managed 3,255 deaths, and counting, with a population of over 1 billion.

Peabee · « **Reply #10498 on:** March 21, 2020, 06:13:28 am »

Quote from: LanceLink!!!!! on March 21, 2020, 06:07:18 am

That means 80k fatalities in London then (I'm guessing Londons population)

How the hell have China managed 3,255 deaths, and counting, with a population of over 1 billion.

Either the stringent measures worked or they’re lying.

Peabee · « **Reply #10499 on:** March 21, 2020, 06:18:20 am »

Quote from: LanceLink!!!!! on March 21, 2020, 06:07:18 am

That means 80k fatalities in London then (I'm guessing Londons population)

How the hell have China managed 3,255 deaths, and counting, with a population of over 1 billion.

I can’t see all of us getting it though. That’s a worse case. Surely, after 50-60% there’d be that H word. But if the vaccine takes 18 months then there’s the possibility those who got it early are no longer immune in 12 months like with other corona viruses. Especially those who had mild symptoms and so a milder immune response.

Zeb · « **Reply #10500 on:** March 21, 2020, 06:19:39 am »

Think the rural area and ageing population is possibly why the worst case scenario is so bad. c.75,000 in a high risk group. Even half catching it will lead to large numbers needing hospital help.

LanceLink!!!!! · « **Reply #10501 on:** March 21, 2020, 06:21:15 am »

That's still 40k in London. Terrifying numbers.

Anyway, I'm off to work, spread some germs.

TheTeflonJohn · « **Reply #10502 on:** March 21, 2020, 06:35:30 am »

Quote from: Peabee on March 21, 2020, 06:04:11 am

That’s sobering. We worry about ourselves and family but there’s people in much worse situations.

Isn`t it just.

Fuckin hell, people on the streets, people losing jobs, people agonising about the future, people dying.

I really hope the majority of people can find something inside to help someone else during these troubled times.

The North Bank · « **Reply #10503 on:** March 21, 2020, 06:43:49 am »

one of the government doctors said on the BBC last week that their "target" of a good national response to the epidemic is 20,000 deaths, up from 8,000 that annually die from flu, but he felt that everything needed to function perfectly to achieve such numbers.

Peabee · « **Reply #10504 on:** March 21, 2020, 06:49:06 am »

Quote from: TheTeflonJohn on March 21, 2020, 06:35:30 am

Isn`t it just.

Fuckin hell, people on the streets, people losing jobs, people agonising about the future, people dying.

I really hope the majority of people can find something inside to help someone else during these troubled times.

Me too. For every panic buyer or nihilist determined it won’t stop them carrying on, I hope there’s someone doing something good, I’m sure there is. I know so many people now either offering to give help to someone or already helping someone.

Peabee · « **Reply #10505 on:** March 21, 2020, 06:52:40 am »

Quote from: The North Bank on March 21, 2020, 06:43:49 am

one of the government doctors said on the BBC last week that their "target" of a good national response to the epidemic is 20,000 deaths, up from 8,000 that annually die from flu, but he felt that everything needed to function perfectly to achieve such numbers.

It shows the difference they think measures could make given that the worst-case is much higher.

How can they get those on board such as the people who were cramming into pubs in my town last night? They’ll probably be moaning already today that the pubs are closed.

The North Bank · « **Reply #10506 on:** March 21, 2020, 06:53:25 am »

Quote from: TheTeflonJohn on March 21, 2020, 06:35:30 am

Isn`t it just.

Fuckin hell, people on the streets, people losing jobs, people agonising about the future, people dying.

I really hope the majority of people can find something inside to help someone else during these troubled times.

I think staying at home, distancing themselves, and being respectful, is a good start, no need to be heroes, just don't be c*nts.

Mutton Geoff · « **Reply #10507 on:** March 21, 2020, 07:05:00 am »

last day at my old school invigilating yesterday , got to have some sympathy for the year 11’s and 13’s both have been working for two years for exams that now will not happen, the uncertainty as well as coping with news about this virus and the fact that suddenly it was their last day led to a fair few students in tears!

TheTeflonJohn · « **Reply #10508 on:** March 21, 2020, 07:07:06 am »

Quote from: The North Bank on March 21, 2020, 06:53:25 am

I think staying at home, distancing themselves, and being respectful, is a good start, no need to be heroes, just don't be c*nts.

But you can`t stay at home when other people who don`t have the ability to get basic food, need food!

TheTeflonJohn · « **Reply #10509 on:** March 21, 2020, 07:13:40 am »

Me old fella is 78 and me mum is 80 (has dementia) and they`re obviously house bound at the moment.

I told him to let me know the night before he needs stuff so I can get out early the next morning to pick it up for them. He`s just worked out how to use watsapp and sent me this last night -

bRead MILK, ojuice DAD

killer-heels · « **Reply #10510 on:** March 21, 2020, 07:16:42 am »

The North Koreans handling the virus in their own unique way.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51984344

Peabee · « **Reply #10511 on:** March 21, 2020, 07:20:03 am »

Quote from: TheTeflonJohn on March 21, 2020, 07:13:40 am

Me old fella is 78 and me mum is 80 (has dementia) and they`re obviously house bound at the moment.

I told him to let me know the night before he needs stuff so I can get out early the next morning to pick it up for them. He`s just worked out how to use watsapp and sent me this last night -

bRead MILK, ojuice DAD

I love Dad texts, they’re always straight to the point haha

Iska · « **Reply #10512 on:** March 21, 2020, 07:21:18 am »

Quote from: Peabee on March 21, 2020, 06:13:28 am

Either the stringent measures worked or they’re lying.

This is it, isn’t it? We’ve got bigger things to worry about right now, but once it’s over this question really does change everything. Either China has it right and our societies should be more like theirs, or they need to be cut off from the rest of the world again.

Obviously none of can know yet, but given that nobody else can do more than slow the tide, while China has gone in two months from hell to the best place on the planet, I’m sceptical.

Peabee · « **Reply #10513 on:** March 21, 2020, 07:26:21 am »

Quote from: a treeless whopper on March 21, 2020, 07:16:42 am

The North Koreans handling the virus in their own unique way.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51984344

Wow, did you read further. They’re going ahead with the assembly of 700 of their leaders. Either they have contained the virus or it’s another typical act of defiance. It wouldn’t surprise me if they just used images/video from a previous assembly. Even if it ended up spreading through their top people they wouldn’t say.

Has there been any information from Russia on the number of cases over there?

Iska · « **Reply #10514 on:** March 21, 2020, 07:30:57 am »

Quote from: Peabee on March 21, 2020, 07:26:21 am

Has there been any information from Russia on the number of cases over there?

That’s another dog that hadn’t been barking, but there are low numbers being reported there now, and there were pictures yesterday of a field hospital being constructed near Moscow.

killer-heels · « **Reply #10515 on:** March 21, 2020, 07:38:07 am »

Quote from: Peabee on March 21, 2020, 07:26:21 am

Wow, did you read further. They’re going ahead with the assembly of 700 of their leaders. Either they have contained the virus or it’s another typical act of defiance. It wouldn’t surprise me if they just used images/video from a previous assembly. Even if it ended up spreading through their top people they wouldn’t say.

Has there been any information from Russia on the number of cases over there?

Considering the amount of Russians who travel and those in the wealthy bracket that love shopping in places like Milan and London I would suspect they have a lot of cases and are just not reporting it.

The North Bank · « **Reply #10516 on:** March 21, 2020, 07:46:36 am »

Quote from: a treeless whopper on March 21, 2020, 07:38:07 am

Considering the amount of Russians who travel and those in the wealthy bracket that love shopping in places like Milan and London I would suspect they have a lot of cases and are just not reporting it.

If I was Russian and suspect That I caught Corona, Id keep quiet, same in North Korea.

jason67 · « **Reply #10517 on:** March 21, 2020, 07:51:37 am »

Quote from: TheTeflonJohn on March 21, 2020, 07:13:40 am

Me old fella is 78 and me mum is 80 (has dementia) and they`re obviously house bound at the moment.

I told him to let me know the night before he needs stuff so I can get out early the next morning to pick it up for them. He`s just worked out how to use watsapp and sent me this last night -

bRead MILK, ojuice DAD

Haha!

rob1966 · « **Reply #10518 on:** March 21, 2020, 08:14:50 am »

I'm doing a collection for Morrisons at the minute from P&G, Pampers and stuff. Normally it's in drop empty, collect loaded and go. So far spent 25 minutes sat at the gate, now sat with 5 other of our drivers waiting for my trailer to get loaded and there are 6 more of our trucks waiting at the gates. The factory next door is loading our trailers with loo roll for other drivers to take. The stuff is available, we just need to time to get it trunked to the RDCs and onto the stores. Fucking nuts this is.

Peabee · « **Reply #10519 on:** March 21, 2020, 08:22:35 am »

Quote from: rob1966 on March 21, 2020, 08:14:50 am

I'm doing a collection for Morrisons at the minute from P&G, Pampers and stuff. Normally it's in drop empty, collect loaded and go. So far spent 25 minutes sat at the gate, now sat with 5 other of our drivers waiting for my trailer to get loaded and there are 6 more of our trucks waiting at the gates. The factory next door is loading our trailers with loo roll for other drivers to take. The stuff is available, we just need to time to get it trunked to the RDCs and onto the stores. Fucking nuts this is.

It’s still flying off shelves even after the supermarkets introduced limits, which tells me people are going to multiple tills and/or multiple supermarkets, given that all the home delivery slots are booked up too.
Andrex et al are going to see a large drop in sales at some point when people realise there’s no shortage and start using their hoard.