Author Topic: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy  (Read 79358 times)

Offline G1 Jockey 4(betfair)

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #120 on: December 26, 2011, 05:55:10 pm »
i thnk its a case of looking at stats but not analysing enough.

very lazy stuff from comolli.

imo only the eye and experience can tell you what you need to know.
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Offline LiverBirdKop

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #121 on: December 26, 2011, 06:02:00 pm »
I'd rather we bought talented and more dynamic players that can do more than one thing statswise. Can't build a team on stats and shouldn't overpay for players with potential based on other player's stats. On paper we should be scoring tons of goals....but football doesn't work tht way.

Offline killer-heels

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #122 on: December 26, 2011, 06:03:42 pm »
Only stat that really matters is the amount of goals a player scores.

Offline Dmode101

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #123 on: December 26, 2011, 06:03:51 pm »
chance creation has many variables. Shots on target too. example: on target but keeper had to dive to save, or shot on target but shot was straight on keeper or within arms length. OR, before shot on target, cross came in not as accurate so striker had to adjust to shoot.

the list goes on. At the end, it would be lazy for example: downing was bought for chance creation alone and not how he did it or how GOOD was the chance for the striker like andy.

Some one needs to be blamed as downing clearly's not been at a standard required. I dont blame him as he has always been this way. Did comolli valued and bought downing based on such generalised stats? that is the big question now.
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Offline trembles97

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #124 on: December 26, 2011, 06:06:15 pm »
This just proves that stats aren't everything, and I'm not so sure that Kenny, Commoli, and the new owners are going to buy into that kind of system. We need to make decisions on players based off of their quality. Not just their potential to be quality.

Offline FernandoTourettes

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #125 on: December 26, 2011, 06:09:32 pm »
One of the statistics they picked out on was chance creation. Henderson, Downing and Adam had great stats in that regard.

And to be fair, the team's creating a shitload of chances.

Let's hope he's pouring over the strikers and their finishing stats, because at the moment, no one on this team is on a 10 goal a season strike rate in this league. That's utterly shocking- we've been used to peripheral attackers getting that many goals for us in a bad season (Yossi, Kuyt, Garcia)!


Downing and Henderson were never consistent scoring midfielders and that's not really changed for them in our team. Even Adam is no where near his strike rate for a relegated Blackpool last season ( He scored 12 in 35 ). As mentioned above, we are creating half decent chances for fun but the lack of a clinical finisher is costing us dearly. Whatever method of transfer policy, I wouldn't necessarily lay the blame at the door or Damien and Kenny, but seeing scoring is the biggest problem area in January ( plus the loss of suarez ) - they must address this now and you don't need Brad Pitt to tell you that.


Offline Camarero25

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #126 on: December 26, 2011, 06:10:12 pm »
I swear to god, if we sign one more player because he's "Premier League proven", I'll go fucking mental.

Offline GoodStuff

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #127 on: December 26, 2011, 06:19:06 pm »
I swear to god, if we sign one more player because he's "Premier League proven", I'll go fucking mental.

 ;D ;D ;D

That myth can finally be put to bed. The board i normally post on had a lot of posters who would hear a name like Suarez and go 'oh hes not premier league proven, the prem is too physical for him, oh he'll cause problems in the dressin room, oh hes never played for a big club' then they'd hear a name like Downing, have a huge wank before posting 'prem proves, loads of experience, negland international, know the prem inside out, ENGLISH, get him the fuck in'.... they don't post that shit no more. Thank god. But costly for us...

Offline Gnurglan

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #128 on: December 26, 2011, 06:23:34 pm »
Are we using the wrong stats? Maybe, but I think the main problem is we have overspent quite a lot on a few transfers.

I see nothing wrong with buying for example a target man or a winger, but when we pay so much, we need first picks who contribute. The main concern now is that our transfers have cost us so much that we can't afford to sell mainly Carroll and Downing (roughly half of our spendings). So we'll sell Maxi and Kuyt instead and we won't get much for them. The effect is we have spent 55M to get two bench players and next we have to get the real deal. Had Downing and Carroll taken their spots on merit, we could have used Kuyt and Maxi for backup for another year. Eased them out. Now we have to sell better players to keep hold of the expensive ones. 

About the stats more specifically, I never liked the chance creation stuff. Which has been mentioned as a selling point for the buys of Downing and Henderson. I prefer goals and assists. This is why I see the logic behind the signing of Adam. He got plenty last season, for a poor side and it's no coincidence he's got a fair few for us so far. Henderson may create the most chances in the league, but what do we get? (No dig at Henderson, I quite like him.) Chances created, it's a bit like corner stats for me. What does it tell you? Close but no cigar?

When I look at the team, I try to see what we lack. It's obvious that both Downing and Carroll have a role to play (as do ALL our other signings). So that's good. We haven't bought half a dozen CBs and forgotten about a fullback. The age mix is good too.

However, both Carroll and Downing need to play a MUCH bigger role for us. They need to reach last season's levels. That's their starting points. And they are worryingly off against that. They are not the only ones, but they are two of our most expensive signings ever and it's questionable if they are good enough to merit a place in the starting line up. Let's just say we can't afford more of those mistakes, whether they are based on stats or not.

Next time we go for an attacking player, please look at assists made and goals scored. One (either is fine) every second game, consistently, is what we need. Or more.

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Offline BazC

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #129 on: December 26, 2011, 06:31:43 pm »
My point was that we've got some players who create chances; and that was the aim. But we didn't look for or buy one who'd score these chances- they obviously thought Carroll would do it, and that was a mistake.

But they'll know it now, and I'm sure Comolli and his scouts are working at bringing the right striker in.

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Offline Dmode101

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #130 on: December 26, 2011, 06:32:29 pm »
also carroll was bought injured. normally top clubs with money wont buy because the player may never be the same. I believe comolli needs to rethink his transfer budget. liverpool club stature shouldn't be caught in such a risky situation.
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Offline gallden

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #131 on: December 26, 2011, 06:36:39 pm »
also carroll was bought injured. normally top clubs with money wont buy because the player may never be the same. I believe comolli needs to rethink his transfer budget. liverpool club stature shouldn't be caught in such a risky situation.

Right then it's the owners fault, I thought we bought Carroll for 5 years not six months, I know someone important said that.

Offline BazC

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #132 on: December 26, 2011, 06:43:32 pm »
Right then it's the owners fault, I thought we bought Carroll for 5 years not six months, I know someone important said that.

It's a pretty bad way to justify spending £35m on a player though. If he wasn't expected to perform straight away, then they shouldn't have made him one of the most expensive footballers ever.

Rafa used the same line on Aquilani. And that was a big disaster of a signing as well.

If you buy average players in the hope they're going to be world beaters one day, you don't pay money that current world class players are going for. It makes no sense- the whole point of buying a player for the future is that there's a risk they'll actually turn out to be poor, but that risk is why you don't pay big transfer fees for them.

If you're prepared to pay big money for a player, you do so with the expectation they're going to be top players straight away. Otherwise you've wasted an opportunity and subjected a lot of your transfer budget to the risk that the player won't actually be that good. 

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Offline Fauxy

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #133 on: December 26, 2011, 06:49:37 pm »
I think the biggest indication that Andy Carroll was a poor signing is that kenny is having to change the team to his style of play. Whereas the system we have been best with all season (4-3-3) Carroll cant fit into. I think it has been a failure of a signing and I dont think he will come good, as much as I want him to.

I think we took a pretty big gamble buying players such as Downing, Henderson and Carroll hoping that they will be able to adapt to a different system. Henderson has paid off, he is fitting in really well, Downing hasnt been great but I still think he will come good but then Carroll just really isnt showing anything.

Hope we sell Carroll and cut our losses even if the loss is a massive one. Isnt gonna happen though.
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Offline gallden

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #134 on: December 26, 2011, 06:53:22 pm »
It's a pretty bad way to justify spending £35m on a player though. If he wasn't expected to perform straight away, then they shouldn't have made him one of the most expensive footballers ever.

Rafa used the same line on Aquilani. And that was a big disaster of a signing as well.

If you buy average players in the hope they're going to be world beaters one day, you don't pay money that current world class players are going for. It makes no sense- the whole point of buying a player for the future is that there's a risk they'll actually turn out to be poor, but that risk is why you don't pay big transfer fees for them.

If you're prepared to pay big money for a player, you do so with the expectation they're going to be top players straight away. Otherwise you've wasted an opportunity and subjected a lot of your transfer budget to the risk that the player won't actually be that good. 


My post was a wum(a poor one clearly) at the guy who has it out for our owners, not defending AC.

Offline Gnurglan

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #135 on: December 26, 2011, 06:59:46 pm »
My point was that we've got some players who create chances; and that was the aim. But we didn't look for or buy one who'd score these chances- they obviously thought Carroll would do it, and that was a mistake.

But they'll know it now, and I'm sure Comolli and his scouts are working at bringing the right striker in.



It's a fair assumption that Suarez and Carroll, worth close to 60M, would convert a much bigger rate of chances than they have so far.

What's strange is that we've benched Maxi and Kuyt, our two best goalscorers last season and made way for those who create chances. And now we struggle to score.

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Offline Dmode101

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #136 on: December 26, 2011, 07:00:47 pm »
My post was a wum(a poor one clearly) at the guy who has it out for our owners, not defending AC.

wow so its either the owners or kenny. and baz explained in detail what i was trying to say. you woukd think in the real world noboby is to be blamed and we are al in disney land. the truth is someone fucked up in terms of adding so much risk to that carroll deal. And I believe kenny wouldnt be involved in the money side. wum u r.
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Offline Zeb

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #137 on: December 26, 2011, 07:01:32 pm »
I'm sure that Kenny and Comolli realise this, or at least would concede that their statistics have been misapplied to this point (I won't even start to go into the whole emphasis on British vs. non-British player conundrum that I think has also been a mistake). 

Last season, in the league, Carroll was a goal every other game striker (13 in 26 across both clubs) although admittedly the goal average was lifted by a couple of very good games. Suarez' goal record in Holland was ludicrous, but is still 1 in 3 so far in league matches for us. Adam (admittedly someone who scores a lot from dead ball situations) was 1 in 3 for Blackpool, and has had very good opportunity to be round there for us too. Downing's never had a decent goal scoring record. Henderson's a kid. Enrique's a left back. Coates has barely played.

So on the basis of looking at the stats, I'm afraid I can't agree with your point that the signings over the past year have been made without paying adequate attention to getting chances finished.
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Offline Kochevnik

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #138 on: December 26, 2011, 07:05:47 pm »
I think the biggest indication that Andy Carroll was a poor signing is that kenny is having to change the team to his style of play. Whereas the system we have been best with all season (4-3-3) Carroll cant fit into. I think it has been a failure of a signing and I dont think he will come good, as much as I want him to.

I think we took a pretty big gamble buying players such as Downing, Henderson and Carroll hoping that they will be able to adapt to a different system. Henderson has paid off, he is fitting in really well, Downing hasnt been great but I still think he will come good but then Carroll just really isnt showing anything.

Hope we sell Carroll and cut our losses even if the loss is a massive one. Isnt gonna happen though.

I think that's a pretty fair assessment.

Again, I don't think that the "chances created" strategy is necessarily a terrible one, but clearly we need something different up front to finish off some of these chances.  If that means making the choice to get a number nine who perhaps is weak in setting up chances himself, but who converts more of the chances created for him, I think that's a tradeoff we need to make.

Henderson, Adam, maybe even Downing - these are players that could be doing very well if we had a top class finisher up front putting away those crosses and through balls they put in.  As it is, those balls go to Carroll or Suarez or even fall to Downing and Henderson themselves, and they're not being put away.  I know this is probably taboo to say, but if it were up to me and I were offered 20 million for Carroll I'd take it this January.  Add 10 million to it and see how serious Real are about hanging on to Higuain until the end of the season.  That, in one stroke, would pretty much transform our odds of getting fourth, in my opinion.
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Offline Fauxy

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #139 on: December 26, 2011, 07:16:01 pm »
I think that's a pretty fair assessment.

Again, I don't think that the "chances created" strategy is necessarily a terrible one, but clearly we need something different up front to finish off some of these chances.  If that means making the choice to get a number nine who perhaps is weak in setting up chances himself, but who converts more of the chances created for him, I think that's a tradeoff we need to make.

Henderson, Adam, maybe even Downing - these are players that could be doing very well if we had a top class finisher up front putting away those crosses and through balls they put in.  As it is, those balls go to Carroll or Suarez or even fall to Downing and Henderson themselves, and they're not being put away.  I know this is probably taboo to say, but if it were up to me and I were offered 20 million for Carroll I'd take it this January.  Add 10 million to it and see how serious Real are about hanging on to Higuain until the end of the season.  That, in one stroke, would pretty much transform our odds of getting fourth, in my opinion.

Yeah a player like Higuain is the ideal type of striker we need. We need an athletic, clinical goalscorer to be a lone striker in a 4-3-3. Someone who can get on the end of crosses, close down players quickly and most importantly finish chances. It would mean sticking Suarez out wide on the left wing but the thing about playing the 4-3-3 system is that the two wide players can roam so it will probably suit him.

Chances are we arent going to get Higuain of course but that is the type of striker we need.
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Offline gallden

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #140 on: December 26, 2011, 07:26:02 pm »
wow so its either the owners or kenny. and baz explained in detail what i was trying to say. you woukd think in the real world noboby is to be blamed and we are al in disney land. the truth is someone fucked up in terms of adding so much risk to that carroll deal. And I believe kenny wouldnt be involved in the money side. wum u r.
So it has to have been DC  that splurged on Carroll?

Offline nutmegger

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #141 on: December 26, 2011, 08:22:35 pm »
So it has to have been DC  that splurged on Carroll?

Everyone is so emotional after this poor performance.  We are a very average team that should finish 6 or 7.  We made some good and bad signings from jan. 11 onward.  We shouldn't point the finger at any one person in management - least of all the owners.  I think transfer singings are hit or miss unless you are getting a world class player and then the odds are probably much more favorable that he will work out.  All I know is that we are f*cked when Suarez serves his ban and I am getting truly beaten down.  We have a good defense and keeper.  From there on we are very average with a few diamonds held back by the limitations of those around them.  I don't think there is a quick fix unless we end up getting a truly creative midfielder who can run box to box and a man up top who can convert - and those just don't come around in January.  I think the suarez sitaution will put us in a further disadvantage if we were to try and sign a big name player in January.

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #142 on: December 26, 2011, 08:33:34 pm »
The main concern now is that our transfers have cost us so much that we can't afford to sell mainly Carroll and Downing (roughly half of our spendings). So we'll sell Maxi and Kuyt instead and we won't get much for them. The effect is we have spent 55M to get two bench players and next we have to get the real deal. Had Downing and Carroll taken their spots on merit, we could have used Kuyt and Maxi for backup for another year. Eased them out. Now we have to sell better players to keep hold of the expensive ones.

I'm not suggesting they'll sell Carroll or Downing, but I wanted to point out your bolded part... FSG have quite a bit of money, so if it's decided that Carroll won't work out here, and they can get 15M for him, they could just cut their losses, admit the error and invest that 15M toward a player that fits us better. I don't think they will tell DC to hang on to a player praying he will turn around if it seems unlikely to happen.

FSG doesn't have bottomless pockets like Man City, so they watch their investments closely, but I think they sincerely care about winning too and willl spend more to get us CL football. But they need Damien and Kenny to agree on the right players.

Offline Helsinki Red

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #143 on: December 26, 2011, 08:36:39 pm »
How much did we spent on Carroll, Downing and Henderson? £70-75M? To be honest that was some shocking piece of business from us. No offence to Carroll, Downing or Henderson. It's not their fault that the club overpaid big time. Yes I know they are all relatively young players but still I can not understand if anyone says that was money well spent. Horrible.

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #144 on: December 26, 2011, 08:49:15 pm »
At least we're pretty much all agreed now that spending on proper attacking quality is utterly neccessary. We need to at least remain competitive, because for all our hard luck stories, we should consider ourselves fortunate that the teams around us haven't capitalised on our dropped points as much as they could've. Some dynamism and genuine steel in midfield (Gerrard + a tough, smart new arrival?) will potentially make us one of the most solid sides in the league, then it will be all just about getting the ball in the net.

For me, an out-and-out winger can wait a bit. An adequate replacement for Lucas and a striker who isn't wasteful can still transform us this term. May well be a bit too late by then unfortunately, but with Gerrard back to give Henderson's game a little kick up the arse, we could look very sharp indeed with the right couple of additions. God, I hope so.
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Offline macca007

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #145 on: December 26, 2011, 09:03:10 pm »
How much did we spent on Carroll, Downing and Henderson? £70-75M? To be honest that was some shocking piece of business from us. No offence to Carroll, Downing or Henderson. It's not their fault that the club overpaid big time. Yes I know they are all relatively young players but still I can not understand if anyone says that was money well spent. Horrible.

I still think Carroll and Henderson will become major players for us in the future and if that meant paying big to get them so be it.  Downing is a bit older but you take risks when spending money and i for one am glad we are at least able to take these risks instead of buying fuckin no marks on a free cos we have to thick no marks in charge.  I swear I feel sorry for a lot of peoples partners, particularly the whingin pricks in the main stand cos all you ever do is moan.  Thats a general point by the way.

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #146 on: December 26, 2011, 09:16:42 pm »
Can I just ask how we missed out on Bojan and Pjanic in the summer? 

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #147 on: December 26, 2011, 09:32:57 pm »
Statistics are bullshit in football.

Do stats tell you how a player will fare in a different environment? No.

I've watched for years while different Liverpool managers have spent absolute fortunes on players from premier league clubs. I've listened to people telling me how, 18, 20 or 35m was worth paying for a player as they are "premier league proven". And I've watched for years as those big money signing completely balls up the minute thye arrive at Anfield.

We need to sign players that will fucking revel being at a big club. That will look at their surroundings and say, FUCK YES, this is fucking it. Im going to fucking rock this place and add to its legend.

Instead, we buy players that shrink. That dont know what its like to play for a club with 24/7 media glare, in front of demanding fans that have seen it, who expect wins every time out and demand nothing but the best. Im sick and tired of seeing players like Carroll, Henderson, Keane, Pennant,Downing Barmby et all absolutely shrink through the sheer force of expectation.

The stats will tell you Downing and Henderson created x amount of chances for their previous clubs and thats all good. But I couldnt give a fuck what you did in front of a mute Villa Park in March, with your team 13th of the table. I couldnt give a fuck if you're scoring goals for Newcastle, or crossing the ball well at the Stadium of Light.

When you put on a Red shirt, everything changes. You become famous the world over. Your every move is watched. Your performances are scrutinised the world over from fans at the ground ,to hundreds of journalists to fans on tv.

There's no amount of stats that will tell you whether a player has the mentality to cope with that pressure, that expectation, that scrutiny. That's why the mentality of a player is so important for us to know about. That's why the argument of being "prem proven", spoken by absolute fuck wits who are unable to think for themselves, is an absolute fallacy. That's why its completely ridiculous for us to spend double or triple what a player is worth simply because he has an English passport and has experience in this league.

Our recruitment needs to change. Our philosophy needs to change. Instead of spending obscene amounts of money on a couple of potentially good players with English passports and decent stats, we need to go buy winners. We need to go fucking look for warriors, people who will be willing to fucking tackle their own grandmothers in order to win a game. People that have either proved they have the bollocks to play for a big club, or have the passion and burning desire to be a success at a big club.

And you wont find that in stats.

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Offline Gnurglan

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #148 on: December 26, 2011, 09:53:00 pm »
I'm not suggesting they'll sell Carroll or Downing, but I wanted to point out your bolded part... FSG have quite a bit of money, so if it's decided that Carroll won't work out here, and they can get 15M for him, they could just cut their losses, admit the error and invest that 15M toward a player that fits us better. I don't think they will tell DC to hang on to a player praying he will turn around if it seems unlikely to happen.

FSG doesn't have bottomless pockets like Man City, so they watch their investments closely, but I think they sincerely care about winning too and willl spend more to get us CL football. But they need Damien and Kenny to agree on the right players.

They have money, but the real concern is bigger than Carroll, it's the collection of transfers that should worry them. We haven't used the money well so far.

As for hanging on to a player, that could well be the case. Because what do you do if you choose between Kuyt or Carroll? One is on the old side, the other is young and happens to be the record signing. They will get understanding nods from people if they sell Kuyt and they'll be questioned if they sell Carroll with a 20M loss just 1-1.5 years after buying him. Maxi and Downing is the same. Politically, I think they have to keep Carroll and Downing.

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Offline JackWard33

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #149 on: December 26, 2011, 10:12:05 pm »
This just proves that stats aren't everything, and I'm not so sure that Kenny, Commoli, and the new owners are going to buy into that kind of system. We need to make decisions on players based off of their quality. Not just their potential to be quality.

And without stats how would you assess their 'quality'?

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #150 on: December 26, 2011, 10:16:58 pm »
Statistics are bullshit in football.

Do stats tell you how a player will fare in a different environment? No.

I've watched for years while different Liverpool managers have spent absolute fortunes on players from premier league clubs. I've listened to people telling me how, 18, 20 or 35m was worth paying for a player as they are "premier league proven". And I've watched for years as those big money signing completely balls up the minute thye arrive at Anfield.

We need to sign players that will fucking revel being at a big club. That will look at their surroundings and say, FUCK YES, this is fucking it. Im going to fucking rock this place and add to its legend.

Instead, we buy players that shrink. That dont know what its like to play for a club with 24/7 media glare, in front of demanding fans that have seen it, who expect wins every time out and demand nothing but the best. Im sick and tired of seeing players like Carroll, Henderson, Keane, Pennant,Downing Barmby et all absolutely shrink through the sheer force of expectation.

The stats will tell you Downing and Henderson created x amount of chances for their previous clubs and thats all good. But I couldnt give a fuck what you did in front of a mute Villa Park in March, with your team 13th of the table. I couldnt give a fuck if you're scoring goals for Newcastle, or crossing the ball well at the Stadium of Light.

When you put on a Red shirt, everything changes. You become famous the world over. Your every move is watched. Your performances are scrutinised the world over from fans at the ground ,to hundreds of journalists to fans on tv.

There's no amount of stats that will tell you whether a player has the mentality to cope with that pressure, that expectation, that scrutiny. That's why the mentality of a player is so important for us to know about. That's why the argument of being "prem proven", spoken by absolute fuck wits who are unable to think for themselves, is an absolute fallacy. That's why its completely ridiculous for us to spend double or triple what a player is worth simply because he has an English passport and has experience in this league.

Our recruitment needs to change. Our philosophy needs to change. Instead of spending obscene amounts of money on a couple of potentially good players with English passports and decent stats, we need to go buy winners. We need to go fucking look for warriors, people who will be willing to fucking tackle their own grandmothers in order to win a game. People that have either proved they have the bollocks to play for a big club, or have the passion and burning desire to be a success at a big club.

And you wont find that in stats.

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Offline Fuzion6

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #151 on: December 26, 2011, 10:23:56 pm »
If you see what comolli did at spurs,it will be a few years till the guys he brings in really prosper. Tell you what though - I'm sure we will bid for Darren bent this jan. comolli loves him and bent has fallen out with mccleish

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #152 on: December 26, 2011, 10:37:23 pm »
Statistics are bullshit in football.

Do stats tell you how a player will fare in a different environment? No.

I've watched for years while different Liverpool managers have spent absolute fortunes on players from premier league clubs. I've listened to people telling me how, 18, 20 or 35m was worth paying for a player as they are "premier league proven". And I've watched for years as those big money signing completely balls up the minute thye arrive at Anfield.

We need to sign players that will fucking revel being at a big club. That will look at their surroundings and say, FUCK YES, this is fucking it. Im going to fucking rock this place and add to its legend.

Instead, we buy players that shrink. That dont know what its like to play for a club with 24/7 media glare, in front of demanding fans that have seen it, who expect wins every time out and demand nothing but the best. Im sick and tired of seeing players like Carroll, Henderson, Keane, Pennant,Downing Barmby et all absolutely shrink through the sheer force of expectation.

The stats will tell you Downing and Henderson created x amount of chances for their previous clubs and thats all good. But I couldnt give a fuck what you did in front of a mute Villa Park in March, with your team 13th of the table. I couldnt give a fuck if you're scoring goals for Newcastle, or crossing the ball well at the Stadium of Light.

When you put on a Red shirt, everything changes. You become famous the world over. Your every move is watched. Your performances are scrutinised the world over from fans at the ground ,to hundreds of journalists to fans on tv.

There's no amount of stats that will tell you whether a player has the mentality to cope with that pressure, that expectation, that scrutiny. That's why the mentality of a player is so important for us to know about. That's why the argument of being "prem proven", spoken by absolute fuck wits who are unable to think for themselves, is an absolute fallacy. That's why its completely ridiculous for us to spend double or triple what a player is worth simply because he has an English passport and has experience in this league.

Our recruitment needs to change. Our philosophy needs to change. Instead of spending obscene amounts of money on a couple of potentially good players with English passports and decent stats, we need to go buy winners. We need to go fucking look for warriors, people who will be willing to fucking tackle their own grandmothers in order to win a game. People that have either proved they have the bollocks to play for a big club, or have the passion and burning desire to be a success at a big club.

And you wont find that in stats.

Excellent post. It'll mean you play football manager for some reason, but excellent nonetheless.

Although I disagree on Henderson, as I think he WILL turn out to be a terrific player, but what truly bothers me is how we think we have the luxury of buying for the future, spending all our budget to do so, when the reality is that every player we sign has to be ready straight away.

I also question the logic in spending an absolute fortune on other young English players when we have several in our own youth setup who will be banging on the door in the next couple of years. Robinson, Flanagan, Coady, Adorjan, Morgan, Shelvey, etc. are all there or thereabouts when it comes to talent and having that little bit extra about them. Why aren't we buying players who are in their mid-twenties and already doing it at a big club? Are we trying to do that or are we just looking for players who nobody else is particularly interested in or ready to spunk £20m on when they're hardly proven? Why are we sanctioning £20m offers for 27 year old wingers who have always been average and don't ever look to beat their man? Why are we spending £35m on a big alehouse striker who's had one good season at a recently relegated club, rather than wondering if we need someone else who suits our style a little better, has more experience, and who someone like Adam Morgan can learn from in terms of positioning and finishing, in order to bring him through in the next year or two?

Like you, all I keep seeing are loads of people defending everything about our transfer strategy when it's stunk the place out for years on end. Moneyball this, wages that. All I know is that we aren't very good at this buying lark, and I'm really struggling to work out how this so-called moneyball bollocks is going to stop us eventually taking a big hit on what we've spent on really average players.
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Offline steveeastend

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #153 on: December 26, 2011, 10:59:04 pm »


The stats will tell you Downing and Henderson created x amount of chances for their previous clubs and thats all good. But I couldnt give a fuck what you did in front of a mute Villa Park in March, with your team 13th of the table. I couldnt give a fuck if you're scoring goals for Newcastle, or crossing the ball well at the Stadium of Light.

When you put on a Red shirt, everything changes. You become famous the world over. Your every move is watched. Your performances are scrutinised the world over from fans at the ground ,to hundreds of journalists to fans on tv.

And you wont find that in stats.



... and there´s less time on the ball, less space and the ball is being passed on at a much higher tempo. Your opposite players are making it as narrow as possible and you will be kicked all over the place for 90 minutes.

This, you won´t find in stats either.
One thing does need to be said: in the post-Benitez era, there was media-led clamour (but also some politicking going on at the club) to make the club more English; the idea being that the club had lost the very essence of what it means to be ‘Liverpool’. Guillem Ballague 18/11/10

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #154 on: December 26, 2011, 11:24:00 pm »
... and there´s less time on the ball, less space and the ball is being passed on at a much higher tempo. Your opposite players are making it as narrow as possible and you will be kicked all over the place for 90 minutes.

This, you won´t find in stats either.

Exactly. Great point.

Another thing that kills me about our strategy, is the reticence in buying players of a certain age.

Am I supposed to give a fuck about a players age and resale value if his performances lead us to top 4 or cup wins?

Look at Spurs. Did they give a fuck about Scott Parker's age? Nope. They had a problem position and bought a player that immediately filled that position and was better than the player he replace. Parker could be a vital cog in a midfield that could get them in the top 4. And if they do, they'll make more money out of that than what it cost to get Parker. And it could lead them keeping their best players.

While we're spending fortunes at kids who have had fuck all impact on our season so far and who are not better than the players they replaced, and whose values are greatly inflated by their passports- we're turning our noses at players that can improve us simply because they're of a certain age.



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Offline Schmidt

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #155 on: December 26, 2011, 11:31:48 pm »
Exactly. Great point.

Another thing that kills me about our strategy, is the reticence in buying players of a certain age.

Am I supposed to give a fuck about a players age and resale value if his performances lead us to top 4 or cup wins?

Look at Spurs. Did they give a fuck about Scott Parker's age? Nope. They had a problem position and bought a player that immediately filled that position and was better than the player he replace. Parker could be a vital cog in a midfield that could get them in the top 4. And if they do, they'll make more money out of that than what it cost to get Parker. And it could lead them keeping their best players.

While we're spending fortunes at kids who have had fuck all impact on our season so far and who are not better than the players they replaced, and whose values are greatly inflated by their passports- we're turning our noses at players that can improve us simply because they're of a certain age.





Did we give a toss about Bellamys age when we bought him? Downings? People on here were outraged when Downing came in because 27 was apparently too old, and now that we're not comfortably in the top 4 at christmas people are suddenly complaining that youth doesn't win games.

Get a grip.

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #156 on: December 26, 2011, 11:36:51 pm »
Did we give a toss about Bellamys age when we bought him? Downings? People on here were outraged when Downing came in because 27 was apparently too old, and now that we're not comfortably in the top 4 at christmas people are suddenly complaining that youth doesn't win games.

Get a grip.

We got Bellamy on a free.

John Henry said clearly, on twitter, in the Summer that we werent going to spend money buy players of a certain age.

And I dont give a fuck waht others said about Downing, as I never said anything of the sort. I aint talking about anyone else's opinion, Im talking about mine.
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Offline steveeastend

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #157 on: December 26, 2011, 11:46:31 pm »
Exactly. Great point.

Another thing that kills me about our strategy, is the reticence in buying players of a certain age.

Am I supposed to give a fuck about a players age and resale value if his performances lead us to top 4 or cup wins?

Look at Spurs. Did they give a fuck about Scott Parker's age? Nope. They had a problem position and bought a player that immediately filled that position and was better than the player he replace. Parker could be a vital cog in a midfield that could get them in the top 4. And if they do, they'll make more money out of that than what it cost to get Parker. And it could lead them keeping their best players.

While we're spending fortunes at kids who have had fuck all impact on our season so far and who are not better than the players they replaced, and whose values are greatly inflated by their passports- we're turning our noses at players that can improve us simply because they're of a certain age.


To be honest, I think this age thing wasn´t really an argument for buying player X over player Y, no? Especially as there are quality players around under 28 anyway.. I also think that the stats did neither really..

I think we rebuild the squad exactly to Kennys and Comollis thoughts and I ´ve been having  problems to figure the arguments behind it from summer on.
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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #158 on: December 26, 2011, 11:47:28 pm »



Unknowingly wrote something similar in another thread, but you put it much much better.

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Re: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy
« Reply #159 on: December 26, 2011, 11:49:52 pm »
If you see what comolli did at spurs,it will be a few years till the guys he brings in really prosper. Tell you what though - I'm sure we will bid for Darren bent this jan. comolli loves him and bent has fallen out with mccleish

Kenny has the final say on transfer so it'd be down to whether Kenny loves Bent not Comolli.
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