Topic: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy

[Yakyb]

Henry seemed to intimate in the summer that they wanted Mata.  If that is the case then he chose Chelsea over Liverpool. 

Torres had something to do with this, Mata was interviewed before the Game a few weeks ago and stated this.

once Mata spoke to Torres it would be unlikely he would come to us

[MagicB8all]

Torres had something to do with this, Mata was interviewed before the Game a few weeks ago and stated this.

once Mata spoke to Torres it would be unlikely he would come to us

at that time it wasn't clear to all and sundry that we were prepared to buy the players needed to rebuild, so Mata listened to Torres. For what it's worth though, had G&T not screwed up we'd have  D Silva who's a better player than Mata.

[MagicB8all]

exactly, altough at the moment it's still early after 2 consecutive drab draws and am still feeling depressed, I echo your feeling.

We just need one that can easily bang them in with his eyes closed. He doesn't need to be gifted in any other dept as we're putting the ball in the small box vicinity quite often but we lack the presence of a deadly finisher.

I get your point. But to be honest Liverpool have rarely done well out of a striker who isn't intelligent enough to take part in bid up play and run the channels. Doing this well takes intelligence, as it's a more complicated way to play than run into the box and head the ball. This is probably why Carroll looks so lost with us. He doesn't really know what to do and where to be. Our game is too complicated for him.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/teams/liverpool/8981541/Liverpools-Kenny-Dalglish-defends-Andy-Carroll-ahead-of-Newcastle-encounter.html

[jah008]

Statistics are bullshit in football.

I think you are getting over emotional regarding the use of statistics by Liverpool and not realizing the processes that Dalglish, Clarke, Comolli and Henry will be going through to make decisions. You need to put this into perspective of what is happening. Liverpool Football Club is a business. John Henry and FSG spent millions in purchasing LFC and they will be looking for a return on their investment down the track. Their mission and vision is to make Liverpool successful, financially self sufficient and the best club in the world.

You are going to have to be patient.  Liverpool have been in a very bad situation for a long time. There have been no cups or league wins for a long time and the finances have been a mess as well. There is no instant fix in business and there is no instant fix in football. FSG have already invested hundreds of millions in the club. They are not going to over invest and waste their money. That's bad business. They won't just go out and overspend on the best players. Look at Man City they have been buying the best since 2008 at over inflated prices and paying huge wages and only now they are starting to look like champions (However, they got knocked out of the champions league early and I think they will lose a couple more come January and fall to pieces). They are spending more then they are making. Its bad business. Mancini has already stated they need to sell before they buy again. But no one is going to pay their huge wage bill. Its bad business. John Henry and FSG will not go out and buy over priced players and huge wages. That would just send the club back into debt. And we would be back to where we were 2 years ago screaming for help. FSG are developing a club that will be self sustaining and will rise to the top and stay there a very long time. Then after we have won the league, the champions league and developed a football business model that everyone else will look to develop, they will look to capitilise on their investment and expect to gain a large return.

So why use statistics? Statistics are used to measure Return on Investment.

Statistics are not the be all and end all of every decision that will be made regarding the liverpool team. They are a measuring tool that will be used to bring to light information that is not visible to the naked eye. And they will be used to confirm thoughts and idea that they already have. They are used to measure how much the club can invest in the player and what they can expect to receive in return on their investment. They are used as facts on players. IE. I think Charlie Adam is lazy as. But the fact is the stats show he runs more metres on the pitch then most others in a game. So this would tell Kenny that his positional play could be a problem.

 The club have been using basic stats for ages. But now they are using them more to get more information before making a decision. They are not replacing scouts or the way things have been done. I guarrantee you that kenny is looking closely at every player he brings in. Making sure they have "liverpool" qualities. Statistics are just another tool. And The Liverpool Management team will be using every tool available to them to build the 'Complete' team to win the league.

As an example, when they bought Jordan Henderson...
They would have seen his name on a few lists such as metres run per game, assists per game, how many times he got into good areas, how many times he was beaten and it turned into a chance for the other team.
Then they would send a scout to watch him. They'd watch footage of him. They'd develop more detailed stats showing his positional runs, completed passes, how he performs when the team is behind, how he performs when away from home in front of hostile crowds, all this is measurable!
Then kenny would go talk to him and find out about his personality, his family, his history, his attitude, his dreams and his desires.
Then they would measure how much they can spend on him, how many years, chances, metres, tackles, games, goals etc etc that we are going to receive for our investment??

Statistics are all about measuring the return on Investment. They take emotion out of the process and let the facts speak for themselves.
You say Statistics are bullshit in football. I say you're club is in the shit if you aren't using statisitics.

[Dmode101]

I think you are getting over emotional regarding the use of statistics by Liverpool and not realizing the processes that Dalglish, Clarke, Comolli and Henry will be going through to make decisions. You need to put this into perspective of what is happening. Liverpool Football Club is a business. John Henry and FSG spent millions in purchasing LFC and they will be looking for a return on their investment down the track. Their mission and vision is to make Liverpool successful, financially self sufficient and the best club in the world.

You are going to have to be patient.  Liverpool have been in a very bad situation for a long time. There have been no cups or league wins for a long time and the finances have been a mess as well. There is no instant fix in business and there is no instant fix in football. FSG have already invested hundreds of millions in the club. They are not going to over invest and waste their money. That's bad business. They won't just go out and overspend on the best players. Look at Man City they have been buying the best since 2008 at over inflated prices and paying huge wages and only now they are starting to look like champions (However, they got knocked out of the champions league early and I think they will lose a couple more come January and fall to pieces). They are spending more then they are making. Its bad business. Mancini has already stated they need to sell before they buy again. But no one is going to pay their huge wage bill. Its bad business. John Henry and FSG will not go out and buy over priced players and huge wages. That would just send the club back into debt. And we would be back to where we were 2 years ago screaming for help. FSG are developing a club that will be self sustaining and will rise to the top and stay there a very long time. Then after we have won the league, the champions league and developed a football business model that everyone else will look to develop, they will look to capitilise on their investment and expect to gain a large return.

So why use statistics? Statistics are used to measure Return on Investment.

Statistics are not the be all and end all of every decision that will be made regarding the liverpool team. They are a measuring tool that will be used to bring to light information that is not visible to the naked eye. And they will be used to confirm thoughts and idea that they already have. They are used to measure how much the club can invest in the player and what they can expect to receive in return on their investment. They are used as facts on players. IE. I think Charlie Adam is lazy as. But the fact is the stats show he runs more metres on the pitch then most others in a game. So this would tell Kenny that his positional play could be a problem.

 The club have been using basic stats for ages. But now they are using them more to get more information before making a decision. They are not replacing scouts or the way things have been done. I guarrantee you that kenny is looking closely at every player he brings in. Making sure they have "liverpool" qualities. Statistics are just another tool. And The Liverpool Management team will be using every tool available to them to build the 'Complete' team to win the league.

As an example, when they bought Jordan Henderson...
They would have seen his name on a few lists such as metres run per game, assists per game, how many times he got into good areas, how many times he was beaten and it turned into a chance for the other team.
Then they would send a scout to watch him. They'd watch footage of him. They'd develop more detailed stats showing his positional runs, completed passes, how he performs when the team is behind, how he performs when away from home in front of hostile crowds, all this is measurable!
Then kenny would go talk to him and find out about his personality, his family, his history, his attitude, his dreams and his desires.
Then they would measure how much they can spend on him, how many years, chances, metres, tackles, games, goals etc etc that we are going to receive for our investment??

Statistics are all about measuring the return on Investment. They take emotion out of the process and let the facts speak for themselves.
You say Statistics are bullshit in football. I say you're club is in the shit if you aren't using statisitics.

the problem with stats is that good stats (indepth stats) require alot of time to compile and bring sense to the final proposal with each prospect or current players. It takes alot of intuition and perhaps someone like kenny who has not only mananged but played the game to understand the little nuances of why certain players hasn't fulfill or fulfill some stats.

Now if you spend too much time on stats then you will sacrifice your time with other vital managment like motivation and spending one on one time with certain players to help him improve. I would say if comolli was given this task then he still needs the advice of kenny to complete all footballing matter stats as a wrong hypothesis could have been formed like "chance creation" which is only a surface lazy stats as chance creation depends on the quality of the chance variable and that can only be verified by a top player like kenny who played the game at the highest. then again we have dynamics like market forces which determines which players is available. This might affect overall team performances as the player bought might be too slow or too pacy for proper team fluidity. We will not know the full details so we can only speculate. But the overall trend is that we are in transition and there will definitely be bums ahead.

[Nessy76]

the problem with stats is that good stats (indepth stats) require alot of time to compile and bring sense to the final proposal with each prospect or current players. It takes alot of intuition and perhaps someone like kenny who has not only mananged but played the game to understand the little nuances of why certain players hasn't fulfill or fulfill some stats.

Now if you spend too much time on stats then you will sacrifice your time with other vital managment like motivation and spending one on one time with certain players to help him improve. I would say if comolli was given this task then he still needs the advice of kenny to complete all footballing matter stats as a wrong hypothesis could have been formed like "chance creation" which is only a surface lazy stats as chance creation depends on the quality of the chance variable and that can only be verified by a top player like kenny who played the game at the highest. then again we have dynamics like market forces which determines which players is available. This might affect overall team performances as the player bought might be too slow or too pacy for proper team fluidity. We will not know the full details so we can only speculate. But the overall trend is that we are in transition and there will definitely be bums ahead.

I think Comolli is really the only man involved with the stats, he uses them to build a case for signing a given player then Kenny can watch the guy and use his own judgement. The sort of statistical analysis he uses will go a long way beyond "chance creation" and will probably be more an indicator of how well a player can use the ball, how much ground he covers, where and when he makes his runs. If you're worried about players being "too slow or too pacy for proper team fluidity" that is exactly the sort of information stats can give you. It isn't foolproof, but it gives more back-up to the case for spending millions of pounds on someone if you've at least found out as much information as you can on whether he has the technical skills you are looking for.

[Zelnaga]

at that time it wasn't clear to all and sundry that we were prepared to buy the players needed to rebuild, so Mata listened to Torres. For what it's worth though, had G&T not screwed up we'd have  D Silva who's a better player than Mata.

Champions League has something to do with it aswell .... not just Torres.

[AnfieldRD19]

Very interesting article. I'm glad to see we actually have some sort of plan for our club. I'm pretty sure we went against all these tactics when Hodgson was our manager..

[RobbieRedman]

Statistics are bullshit in football.

Do stats tell you how a player will fare in a different environment? No.

I've watched for years while different Liverpool managers have spent absolute fortunes on players from premier league clubs. I've listened to people telling me how, 18, 20 or 35m was worth paying for a player as they are "premier league proven". And I've watched for years as those big money signing completely balls up the minute thye arrive at Anfield.

We need to sign players that will fucking revel being at a big club. That will look at their surroundings and say, FUCK YES, this is fucking it. Im going to fucking rock this place and add to its legend.

Instead, we buy players that shrink. That dont know what its like to play for a club with 24/7 media glare, in front of demanding fans that have seen it, who expect wins every time out and demand nothing but the best. Im sick and tired of seeing players like Carroll, Henderson, Keane, Pennant,Downing Barmby et all absolutely shrink through the sheer force of expectation.

The stats will tell you Downing and Henderson created x amount of chances for their previous clubs and thats all good. But I couldnt give a fuck what you did in front of a mute Villa Park in March, with your team 13th of the table. I couldnt give a fuck if you're scoring goals for Newcastle, or crossing the ball well at the Stadium of Light.

When you put on a Red shirt, everything changes. You become famous the world over. Your every move is watched. Your performances are scrutinised the world over from fans at the ground ,to hundreds of journalists to fans on tv.

There's no amount of stats that will tell you whether a player has the mentality to cope with that pressure, that expectation, that scrutiny. That's why the mentality of a player is so important for us to know about. That's why the argument of being "prem proven", spoken by absolute fuck wits who are unable to think for themselves, is an absolute fallacy. That's why its completely ridiculous for us to spend double or triple what a player is worth simply because he has an English passport and has experience in this league.

Our recruitment needs to change. Our philosophy needs to change. Instead of spending obscene amounts of money on a couple of potentially good players with English passports and decent stats, we need to go buy winners. We need to go fucking look for warriors, people who will be willing to fucking tackle their own grandmothers in order to win a game. People that have either proved they have the bollocks to play for a big club, or have the passion and burning desire to be a success at a big club.

And you wont find that in stats.

THIS.

[RAWK Meltdown #1]

Statistics are bullshit in football.

Do stats tell you how a player will fare in a different environment? No.

I've watched for years while different Liverpool managers have spent absolute fortunes on players from premier league clubs. I've listened to people telling me how, 18, 20 or 35m was worth paying for a player as they are "premier league proven". And I've watched for years as those big money signing completely balls up the minute they arrive at Anfield.

We need to sign players that will fucking revel being at a big club. That will look at their surroundings and say, FUCK YES, this is fucking it. I'm going to fucking rock this place and add to its legend.

Instead, we buy players that shrink. That dont know what its like to play for a club with 24/7 media glare, in front of demanding fans that have seen it, who expect wins every time out and demand nothing but the best. Im sick and tired of seeing players like Carroll, Henderson, Keane, Pennant,Downing Barmby et all absolutely shrink through the sheer force of expectation.

The stats will tell you Downing and Henderson created x amount of chances for their previous clubs and thats all good. But I couldnt give a fuck what you did in front of a mute Villa Park in March, with your team 13th of the table. I couldnt give a fuck if you're scoring goals for Newcastle, or crossing the ball well at the Stadium of Light.

When you put on a Red shirt, everything changes. You become famous the world over. Your every move is watched. Your performances are scrutinised the world over from fans at the ground ,to hundreds of journalists to fans on tv.

There's no amount of stats that will tell you whether a player has the mentality to cope with that pressure, that expectation, that scrutiny. That's why the mentality of a player is so important for us to know about. That's why the argument of being "prem proven", spoken by absolute fuck wits who are unable to think for themselves, is an absolute fallacy. That's why its completely ridiculous for us to spend double or triple what a player is worth simply because he has an English passport and has experience in this league.

Our recruitment needs to change. Our philosophy needs to change. Instead of spending obscene amounts of money on a couple of potentially good players with English passports and decent stats, we need to go buy winners. We need to go fucking look for warriors, people who will be willing to fucking tackle their own grandmothers in order to win a game. People that have either proved they have the bollocks to play for a big club, or have the passion and burning desire to be a success at a big club.

And you wont find that in stats.

Yep...THIS indeed.

But sadly, this is what's happened since footie became a 'middle-class' pastime.

It has begun to be appraised by middle-class methodologies.

You know, by people whose day to day jobs orbit some strategic business model, and think that this translates....[or ought to translate] into their other hobbies.

That said, footie has different appeal to different folks, and it's a free country. There's no law stating how supporters ought to manifest their 'support' and some of this shit makes interesting reading.

However, these 'bang per buck' philosophies do seem to be a tad clinical and make you feel as though something crucial or important is being detrimentally overlooked when it comes to the more intangible elements of the game.
 

[exiledinyorkshire]

its not middle class nonsense though is it.

Its business practice for the buying  of very expensive capital purchases. Its good disciplined commercial business practice. And its only part of the decision making process when it comes to recruiting playing staff.

It seems quite ridiculous to me that you would on the one hand categorrically throw out the use of statistics as a valid or effective way of getting a player and then choose as your preffered method something as akin to divination. Anybody who can pick a player from instinct will be following an internal less scientific version of the statistic gathering exercise anyway, theres nothing wrong with trying to isolate what it is these witches look for and bring that into the light.

In the days of Shankly, the club was transformed when the 4 point tick list was developed for things that a good player need to have. Good first touch, excellent movement, good passing and the lungs to close down. When this was articulated by the great man, it wasnt any surprise that a dynasty was created and that it didnt all fall apart after he left. The boot room was to my mind the very cutting edge in its day of stat gathering and it seved to make us ahead of our time in many ways.

[Gnurglan]

I think you are getting over emotional regarding the use of statistics by Liverpool and not realizing the processes that Dalglish, Clarke, Comolli and Henry will be going through to make decisions. You need to put this into perspective of what is happening. Liverpool Football Club is a business. John Henry and FSG spent millions in purchasing LFC and they will be looking for a return on their investment down the track. Their mission and vision is to make Liverpool successful, financially self sufficient and the best club in the world.

You are going to have to be patient.  Liverpool have been in a very bad situation for a long time. There have been no cups or league wins for a long time and the finances have been a mess as well. There is no instant fix in business and there is no instant fix in football. FSG have already invested hundreds of millions in the club. They are not going to over invest and waste their money. That's bad business. They won't just go out and overspend on the best players. Look at Man City they have been buying the best since 2008 at over inflated prices and paying huge wages and only now they are starting to look like champions (However, they got knocked out of the champions league early and I think they will lose a couple more come January and fall to pieces). They are spending more then they are making. Its bad business. Mancini has already stated they need to sell before they buy again. But no one is going to pay their huge wage bill. Its bad business. John Henry and FSG will not go out and buy over priced players and huge wages. That would just send the club back into debt. And we would be back to where we were 2 years ago screaming for help. FSG are developing a club that will be self sustaining and will rise to the top and stay there a very long time. Then after we have won the league, the champions league and developed a football business model that everyone else will look to develop, they will look to capitilise on their investment and expect to gain a large return.

So why use statistics? Statistics are used to measure Return on Investment.

Statistics are not the be all and end all of every decision that will be made regarding the liverpool team. They are a measuring tool that will be used to bring to light information that is not visible to the naked eye. And they will be used to confirm thoughts and idea that they already have. They are used to measure how much the club can invest in the player and what they can expect to receive in return on their investment. They are used as facts on players. IE. I think Charlie Adam is lazy as. But the fact is the stats show he runs more metres on the pitch then most others in a game. So this would tell Kenny that his positional play could be a problem.

 The club have been using basic stats for ages. But now they are using them more to get more information before making a decision. They are not replacing scouts or the way things have been done. I guarrantee you that kenny is looking closely at every player he brings in. Making sure they have "liverpool" qualities. Statistics are just another tool. And The Liverpool Management team will be using every tool available to them to build the 'Complete' team to win the league.

As an example, when they bought Jordan Henderson...
They would have seen his name on a few lists such as metres run per game, assists per game, how many times he got into good areas, how many times he was beaten and it turned into a chance for the other team.
Then they would send a scout to watch him. They'd watch footage of him. They'd develop more detailed stats showing his positional runs, completed passes, how he performs when the team is behind, how he performs when away from home in front of hostile crowds, all this is measurable!
Then kenny would go talk to him and find out about his personality, his family, his history, his attitude, his dreams and his desires.
Then they would measure how much they can spend on him, how many years, chances, metres, tackles, games, goals etc etc that we are going to receive for our investment??

Statistics are all about measuring the return on Investment. They take emotion out of the process and let the facts speak for themselves.
You say Statistics are bullshit in football. I say you're club is in the shit if you aren't using statisitics.

We need to use stats. Everyone does it. But we seem to have made a big point of how this will give us a competitive advantage. And we're not seeing it. Take emotion out of it. Carroll? Downing? 55M. Value for money? Has Henderson improved us? Or could we have achieved the same with Spearing? That's 70M. Our target is a CL spot this season. We look very likely to miss top four.

We have invested a lot of money in our ability to use those stats, to gain a return of investment. Are we getting it?

I think the easiest correlation to spot so far is that the less we spend, the better player we get. Suarez being the exception to confirm the rule.

[RAWK Meltdown #1]

...there's nothing wrong with trying to isolate what it is these witches look for and bring that into the light.

This could ever so easily be a quote uttered by Simon Cowell in response to the meaning of the word 'talent.'

The upshot being that nobbers like 'Jedward' are unleashed onto the great British public and there's no way to put them back into the box of obscurity from which they were oh-so-mistakenly plucked.

Statistics could ever so easily prove that Jedward are indeed, a welcome addition to the light-entertainment sector.

Which is all well and good..

However...

If I had a gun, I'd shoot the fuckers on sight....


[...that's a joke just in case somebody actually DOES !!]


[...which is possible..]

[exiledinyorkshire]

This could ever so easily be a quote uttered by Simon Cowell in response to the meaning of the word 'talent.'

The upshot being that nobbers like 'Jedward' are unleashed onto the great British public and there's no way to put them back into the box of obscurity from which they were oh-so-mistakenly plucked.

Statistics could ever so easily prove that Jedward are indeed, a welcome addition to the light-entertainment sector.

Which is all well and good..

However...

If I had a gun, I'd shoot the fuckers on sight....


[...that's a joke just in case somebody actually DOES !!]


[...which is possible..]

Yes but only if you believe that Cowell is trying to unearth serious recording talent, and not achieving his goals. Cowell is simply trying to make money. The out put in quality is irrelevant on the x-factor as its purely about what silly billies will buy. He is most certainly producing exactly what he wants.

Football's desires and outcomes are much more aligned than the example you give. We are a results based business, and naturally quality is a big determining factor in winning football matches. There isnt really any other final criteria than the quality available as set against a check list of whats required.

Los of things sell shit in light entertainment, sometimes things which are abhorrent like Jedward, the desired outcome is sales of records and merchandise, and most would be happy to get that where they could. In recruiting for a football club your criteria is not ok well people seem to like that, thats ring the shit out of that while we can, its about improving the quality of you playing staff, and any use of statistical anylisis will be used to achieve that. It may well mean that you take the young over the old or the lower wage over the high paid, but always you will be looking for the best quality for your dollar.

So in answer to your hypothesis, we wouldnt end up with Jedward............Adam and Downing maybe, but never with people who couldnt on any level actually play the game. So its a stupid analogy in my opinion, clever but ultimately very very very stupid.

[RAWK Meltdown #1]

Well that's all fair comment and I'd never be one to piss all over a statistician's party.....

However, I do reserve the right to engage in a little selective quotation [below]...for no other reason than that it greatly pleaseth me and bringeth me much mirth...!!

...in answer to your hypothesis, we wouldn't end up with JEDWARD............Adam and Downing maybe..

* Emphasis and highlights mine

[Art Vandelay]

This was on mediawatch....made me smile....

Moneyball Lolz
We weren't sure anything could be funnier than Kenny Dalglish claiming Stewart Downing (no goals, no assists in the league) has been a rip-roaring success.

But step up Liverpool big cheese Tom Werner to give us an even bigger belly laugh.

Presented without comment, here's an extract from today's edition of The Liverpool Echo:

'WHEN John Henry and Tom Werner were informed about Liverpool FC's interest in Stewart Downing last summer they turned to the internet to find out more. The Reds' principal owner and chairman stumbled across a video on YouTube which grabbed their attention.

"There was some footage of Stewart where he is, from 30 yards away, kicking a football into five different trash cans and it's brilliant," Werner recalled. "John and I said: 'Oh my god, this player is brilliant, we've got to figure out a way to make a deal with him'."

'The American duo later discovered the footage had been doctored but the excitement at Downing's arrival remained.'

Now Mediawatch has read Moneyball, and we don't remember this bit being a big part.

[tamadic]

Moneyball is working only for couple seasons in the early/mid 2000 (for A's) and for the Oscar this year...  :>
I'm living in the Bay Area in the States and very close to A's. They haven't performed for a long time since their last playoff appearance.

Can I say it has been broken? I don't know. The only thing i know is, whoever spends more would most likely stay in the top. Football, NBA, baseball... are all the same.

Moneyball is only for those teams that have no money to spend. They are allowed to make mistakes cuz everyone has low expectation for them.

I'm not saying we should abandon the A's approach. Instead, we should follow what the Red Sox has been doing. Spend big and wise. So far, however, I don't see we have achieved that yet. Carroll is not the case, cuz I think everyone thinks that was a panic buy. Regarding to Downing... what can i say, money wise, it was big, but not wise.


 

[Lobanovsky]

Moneyball is working only for couple seasons in the early/mid 2000 (for A's) and for the Oscar this year...  :>
I'm living in the Bay Area in the States and very close to A's. They haven't performed for a long time since their last playoff appearance.

Can I say it has been broken? I don't know. The only thing i know is, whoever spends more would most likely stay in the top. Football, NBA, baseball... are all the same.

Moneyball is only for those teams that have no money to spend. They are allowed to make mistakes cuz everyone has low expectation for them.

I'm not saying we should abandon the A's approach. Instead, we should follow what the Red Sox has been doing. Spend big and wise. So far, however, I don't see we have achieved that yet. Carroll is not the case, cuz I think everyone thinks that was a panic buy. Regarding to Downing... what can i say, money wise, it was big, but not wise.

You've got it so wrong that I have to say something. As you said the teams that spent the most money usually does the best job and thats also moneyball. Moneyball is about getting right return to your investment using more than what has been traditionally looked. The thing is to try to find new ways and ideas to play football as well as new ways of discovering talent. Sometimes you will pay alot and buy the best around just because hes still good value for money with 40 million price tag and huge wages. We won't ever be able to compete with oil money but the rest of the field is pretty much on even ground. 

Also you can't really say that there aren't knew things to discover in football as the sport has done the whole way from pyramid to pyramid.

[Abrak]

People seem very fundamentally confused about the underlying equation in football.

It runs like this 'amount of money expended x the efficient use of that money = your result'

Now before dissecting the equation consider the parameters. The amount of money expended is 'unlimited', the efficiency of use is limited. Therefore if yoy have enough money you can always beat the player that is more efficient.

Case in point. Modric is paid say 60k a week. If I buy him for 100m and pay him 150k a week I will get Modric. If you dont believe me simply double the prices.

Effiency is a finite parameter, money is infinite.

[tamadic]

You've got it so wrong that I have to say something. As you said the teams that spent the most money usually does the best job and thats also moneyball. Moneyball is about getting right return to your investment using more than what has been traditionally looked. The thing is to try to find new ways and ideas to play football as well as new ways of discovering talent. Sometimes you will pay alot and buy the best around just because hes still good value for money with 40 million price tag and huge wages. We won't ever be able to compete with oil money but the rest of the field is pretty much on even ground. 

Also you can't really say that there aren't knew things to discover in football as the sport has done the whole way from pyramid to pyramid.

Both A's and red sox use moneyball, the former basically spend nothing while the latter spend big. The former only reached the semi final decade ago while the latter won the world series twice. Correct me if I'm wrong. I'm just trying to say, if you want ultimate success, go for red sox moneyball, not A's.

[Kochevnik]

People seem very fundamentally confused about the underlying equation in football.

It runs like this 'amount of money expended x the efficient use of that money = your result'

Now before dissecting the equation consider the parameters. The amount of money expended is 'unlimited', the efficiency of use is limited. Therefore if yoy have enough money you can always beat the player that is more efficient.

Case in point. Modric is paid say 60k a week. If I buy him for 100m and pay him 150k a week I will get Modric. If you dont believe me simply double the prices.

Effiency is a finite parameter, money is infinite.

Exactly!

It's not at all the case that money doesn't enter the equation if you're using "moneyball" principles.  It's the case that you can maximise the benefit you see from the amount of money you spend, thus making it likely that you'll get more points than your expenditures relative to other clubs would suggest.

If we're twice as efficient with our money as Man City, but they spend three times as much as we do, they still win.  That means we have to at least get into the ballpark of another club's spending (especially on wages) and then hope that our efficiency advantage carries us over the top.  It's not at all the case that, for example, Everton can carry on spending a total of 5 million a year on players and have a reasonable expectation of winning the league if they can just get their efficiency up enough.

[Baz Smythe]

The only way moneyball works in football

Apologies if this is the wrong thread, but I figured this section would be most appropriate.

There's been a lot of talk recently about the book Moneyball on RAWK recently since it became known that NESV was going to buy LFC. For those who don't know, under John Henry's stewardship, the Red Sox have become one of the forerunners of using quantitative analysis on the field of play -- two world championships to their name is proof positive their methods have worked.

Since Henry and his team have been such proponents of using such analysis, I wondered if there was a book similar to Moneyball that breaks down football the way Moneyball analyzes baseball.

Thankfully, there is. If you want insight on how Liverpool could potentially be run in the future, this is the book to get.

The analysis of football is jaw dropping and it goes into great detail on how teams piss away their money unnecessarily. There's an entire chapter devoted to the transfer market which I found riveting.

Soccernomics cites the example of Lyon as the model Moneyball -- or in this case Soccernomics -- club. They buy the right players at the right times and sell them at the right times and had dominated Ligue 1 up until to recently to the point that it got repetitive and did so with many different managers. How so?

Long-term stability = success. But not at the manager level -- in the boardroom. Lyon believes in the use of "crowds" -- the more minds to analyze a situation, the better the final result should be. This flies right in the face of the English system of one manager being the entire be all and end all for decisions. If you look at Lyon, they've have different managers -- Alain Perrin, Houllier, Paul Le Guen to name a few -- but remained successful throughout because the technical director, Bernard Lacombe and president, Jean-Michel Aulas remained the same.

Here's the 12 main secrets of Lyon:

-- A new manager wastes money; don't let him

The first order of business usually when a new manager arrives is to clear out the deadwood from the club and sells off what are perceived to be undesirable players at a fraction of what they were originally bought.

At Lyon, the brand of football stays the same, the board stays the same, just the players and managers change over time. In fact, Lyon put little to no emphasis on the manager position. Which brings us to ...

-- Use the power of crowds

Not the crowds in the stands, but the crowd of wise football men who can come up with a consensus of what to do to move the club forward. While most English clubs are still stuck with the one-man only type of football management, most clubs around the world have a technical director in charge of player personnel. In fact, I can't think of any other league or sport besides the English Premier League where the manager has so much power in player decisions. 

-- Stars of World Cups and European Champions are more often than not overvalued.

See El-Haji Diouf.

-- Certain nationalities are overvalued.

Let's face it, if you had the chance to sign one of two similarly skilled players and found out they were a Brazilian and an American, most of us would sign the Brazilian. Look at some of the best bargains in the Premier League recently: Wilson Palacios joined Wigan for a nominal fee and then went to Spurs for 12 million pounds. From Honduras.

Antonio Valencia signed for Wigan also for a nominal fee and impressed well enough to join the Mancs for 16 million pounds. Ecuador.

The point being the world is bigger than Brazil, Argentina and Western Europe. If you want to be successful, you must scour all of the world, not just a small corner of it.

-- Older players are overvalued ... as well as younger players

Soccernomics cites Paisiely as an example. As players reached the age of the 30, their value to the club significantly decreases. However, just because a player is young doesn't mean he'll be a success. Lyon tend to buy players in their early 20s, mature enough to adapt to the environment but still nearing their peak of their playing prowess. Investing large sums of cash in an Academy is useless if the player doesn't develop. Of course, there are exceptions to the rule -- one Lionel Messi in terms of younger and unfortunately Giggs and Scholes for the older -- but if you're looking to buy, buy a player in his early 20s.

-- Center forwards are overvalued; goalkeepers are undervalued

I wanted to slap myself upside the head for not realizing this sooner. Of course goalkeepers are more valuable than we think! Think of the longevity of the goalkeeper position. Dino Zoff won the World Cup at the age of 40, still very much at the top of his game. It makes Pepe Reina's transfer ludicrously cheap. Rafa bought one of the top 5 goalkeepers in the world at the age of 23 for 6 million pounds, a player who hasn't even peaked yet and given the club five wonderful years of service. Funny enough, Soccernomics has listed Arsene Wenger as one of the patrons of statistical analysis and yet he hasn't realized this yet.

The book doesn't go much into detail about why Center Forwards are overpriced, but theoretically, it makes sense. What position is seen as the glamour position? Striker. I'm less convinced about this argument, although you might have something there if we see someone like David Ngog develop for the meager tag of 1.5 million and becomes a world-class striker. If you compare his return to say, Robbie Keane, there is some merit, albeit with extenuating circumstances.

-- Gentlemen prefer blondes. Avoid sight-based observations.

No, this is not an observation on Christian Poulsen. Well, actually it might be. In Moneyball, Billy Beane cites one of the reasons why he was able to get players on the cheap was the fact that they never looked the part. Blondes do tend to stand out on the field with their lighter locks and Soccernomics goes into examples of this. Some players -- or managers who happen to be Spanish, slightly chubby and speak in a funny accent -- just don't seem right in a football shirt. And yet they get the job done. Compare that to Poulsen, who stands out with his blonde hair and also stands out with his rather lackluster play.

-- Sell any player if another club offers more than he's worth.

By far, Lyon are a perfect example of this, getting good prices on Essien and Malouda before flogging them on. It's a rather cold, hard fact, but every player has a price. If Real Madrid were to bid 300 million pounds for Gerrard, as much as Stevie has meant to the club, you would be mentally retarded not to sell Gerrard. However, it helps to have a ready-made replacement, which leads us to ....

-- Have your replacement ready before you sell your best players.

A good example of this is at Arsenal where Jack Wilshere is being groomed to replace Fabregas who was groomed to replace Viera when he was sold on. There's no doubt Fabregas within the next couple of years is headed back to Spain and Wenger is getting Wilshere ready for that day.

-- Buy undervalued players who have personal problems

Interesting theory, this. Soccernomics cites the example of Brian Clough and Peter Taylor as the management team that did this often. They would ask a player what his vice was and after finding out, would use the proper management skills or outside help to control it. Man management that allowed Forest and Derby to buy good players for a pittance and be successful.

-- Finally, help your players relocate.

I was shocked to read how clubs just consider their players as merely merchandise. OK, so they make more money in a week than I will in a lifetime. But think about being a young man moving from a different corner of the world to a new foreign land. In this foreign land, your employer does not assist you in buying a house, does not help you get acclimated to life and expects you to be successful because they've paid a huge sum of money.

A good example of how this worked well is Torres. I remember reading about how the club gave him DVDs to get a feel of the tradition and history surrounding LFC. Of course, it helped having established Spanish stars like Alonso and Reina, but every little bit helps.

Obviously, this is way too long of a post, but I just wanted to share what could possibly be the future of LFC. If it is -- the future is bright, the future is red.

[Lobanovsky]

Both A's and red sox use moneyball, the former basically spend nothing while the latter spend big. The former only reached the semi final decade ago while the latter won the world series twice. Correct me if I'm wrong. I'm just trying to say, if you want ultimate success, go for red sox moneyball, not A's.

You got it right. And It's funny that people are complaining about the use of statistics as additional tool to evaluate players. Why wouldn't you allways want to use everything available to evaluate the players worth. 

[Gnurglan]

Just finished watching the Moneyball film. Recommended. Most, myself included, use the same kind of logic that the old guard at Oakland used. Had to laugh. You can't re-invent the game. It's impossible not to see the similarities in reaction. Remains to be seen if we get our version to work, but we could be the guys in the room trying to figure out who Fabio is and we really don't want that.

Given the way things went for Oakland early on, I think our owners will be pretty relaxed about things now. Which for me is the best bit. Can't imagine they'll lose patience because of a few results. This is the method they believe in.

That said, I can't escape the impression we're doing the direct opposite of what Beane did when he went for all those undervalued players.

[Gnurglan]

You got it right. And It's funny that people are complaining about the use of statistics as additional tool to evaluate players. Why wouldn't you allways want to use everything available to evaluate the players worth. 

You're wise to use stats. The key for us is to use the right stats, the stuff few put value on. And you need the players to fit with the ideas you're trying to implement.

[Ada069]

Statistics are bullshit in football.

Do stats tell you how a player will fare in a different environment? No.

Read Moneyball.

[Abrak]

Look this is not rocket science.

When you buy a player for instance, you buy him on the basis of how good will his future performance be.

Now absolutely nobody can predict the future. If you believe otherwise you are just making a massively heroic assumption.

Statistics are in essence no more than past facts. Historic performance cannot predict the future. But given that nobody can predict the future you are left with the statistical facts from the past as one measure of trying to predict the future. So the historic fact that nobody has ever lived beyond the age of 120 is a good indicator that you can predict that someone will not live beyond the age of 120. Intuition, opinion, the ability in your own mind that you can forecast the future, years of experience, I just know what I am talking about, the shape of his left hand, the color of his hair, his close relation to God etc.. is fine but it doesnt mean much.

[iamrobk]

Someone on another forum I frequent works as a statistician/analyst/whatever you'd call them for an MLS team posted a few interesting things about what they do, and I figured I'd just post it here since it could help people understand a bit more about "soccernomics" or whatever you want to call it:

"No, % of passes completed is a trash stat. Almost everything available in the public domain is a trash stat."
"Every single event that happens on the field has a specific, unknown (right now) value. We're trying to figure out those values. Our goal is to eventually include every single field even as inputs, whereas right now, it's just goals and cards, essentially. From this, we can have some sort of objective, if imperfect, evaluation of a player."
"I guess I should explain why passing % if a bad stat. It's essentially equivalent to batting average in baseball. You know at what frequency a successful event happens, but you don't know what value that successful event has, or if it should be considered 'successful' at all. It's the equivalent of having 4 quarters and 3 dimes and telling people you have 7 coins, rather than saying that you have $1.30"

Pretty interesting IMO, and goes to show we really have no idea what Comolli and the rest of our scouts look at statistically.

[IndianKopite]

It's the equivalent of having 4 quarters and 3 dimes and telling people you have 7 coins, rather than saying that you have $1.30"

Pretty interesting IMO, and goes to show we really have no idea what Comolli and the rest of our scouts look at statistically.

Brilliant analogy!!
Brainwave-Can we hire scientists working on quantum physics to make better tools to look for ways to interpret stats better?

[steveeastend]

Torres had something to do with this, Mata was interviewed before the Game a few weeks ago and stated this.

once Mata spoke to Torres it would be unlikely he would come to us

That´s pretty hard to take isn´t it? Imagine having still Meireles AND Mata in the squad...  things would have been much easier going in our attacking play...

[steveeastend]

Pretty interesting IMO, and goes to show we really have no idea what Comolli and the rest of our scouts look at statistically.

Yeah, we really don´t. But does it matter? I am a fan of stats but this "smart ass" attitude is kind of pissing me off. Sorry, no offense but you don´t need some hidden treasure sort of stat to see that Mata would have been a better signing than Downing.

[iamrobk]

Yeah, we really don´t. But does it matter? I am a fan of stats but this "smart ass" attitude is kind of pissing me off. Sorry, no offense but you don´t need some hidden treasure sort of stat to see that Mata would have been a better signing than Downing.

I'm not saying it's a good or bad approach, and I don't want to get into some sort of Mata/Downing debate.  I just figured I'd post it so people could try to get a better idea of how the club is (probably) operating behind the scenes.

[steveeastend]

I'm not saying it's a good or bad approach, and I don't want to get into some sort of Mata/Downing debate.  I just figured I'd post it so people could try to get a better idea of how the club is (probably) operating behind the scenes.

I know, but I doubt it´s that much of an importance in general. And if it´s the case, it shows that it has to be overrated, otherwise the success rate of Comolli would be a better one so far in his career. In fact though, he signed roughly the same ratio of good or shite player as the likes of Benitez f.e. which may indicate that he, Comolli, needs stats in order to make up for his not so good judgement of the qualities of footballers in general compared to your given top manager.

[DanA]

Just finished watching the Moneyball film. Recommended. Most, myself included, use the same kind of logic that the old guard at Oakland used. Had to laugh. You can't re-invent the game. It's impossible not to see the similarities in reaction. Remains to be seen if we get our version to work, but we could be the guys in the room trying to figure out who Fabio is and we really don't want that.

Given the way things went for Oakland early on, I think our owners will be pretty relaxed about things now. Which for me is the best bit. Can't imagine they'll lose patience because of a few results. This is the method they believe in.

That said, I can't escape the impression we're doing the direct opposite of what Beane did when he went for all those undervalued players.

But we are not Oakland. That stratergy is  for teams like Everton or Newcastle who like Oakland won't win anything. We are Liverpool basing our strategy off the Redsocks. The redsocks aren't the biggest spenders but they are close. We don't want or need to be shopping in the bargain bins for unwanted players. We need to find the best undervalued ones. That has lead to far more success for the redsocks then Oakland have had

[Abrak]

Statistics are bullshit in football.

I agree.

Every single year the statistics in football make the claim that the team with the most points in the League is the best team in the Premiership.

Just because statistically you have less points than the top team, the team with the most points is always (and I mean always) declared the winner of the Premiership.

What sort of bullshit is that? Teams often lose to other teams that are infinitely inferior to them but the winning team is always awarded 3 points and the losing team none.

How stupid is that?

Part of the problem is that the whole stupid concept of the League is based on the incredibly stupid statistic that the team that scores the most goals in a match is the 'automatic' winner.  Whoever dreamt up that idea was a complete moron. Often one team can be far better than the other but score less goals. It is a statement of the obvious. So how base the entire game around statistics that are obviously bullshit.

It really doesnt take much knowledge of football to know that Liverpool are the best team. If football was based on knowledge, intuition and underlying expertise, we would clearly be at the top of the League.

[SeanAxion]

If football was based on knowledge, intuition and underlying expertise, we would clearly be at the top of the League.

Although you were being sarcastic, it's ironic that this is ultimately what it boils down to. Statistics obviously have a bearing on a decision of whether or not to sign a player, just a bearing though. Feel free to build a team based on statistics, but if players don't click together then they don't click. Simple as that.

It's football not chess, now let's be done with this idle chit-chat and focus on today's kickabout and the matter of if Kenny will play both Suarez and Carroll 

[steveeastend]

Insisting on stats to be the true and all is one thing. Having a look at the table another.

If we really wanted to sign Mata and wanted Meireles to stay it´s a different thing though and would make perfectly sense as Kenny himself was world class as a football and I cannot imagine him being happy with our performance upfront so far. His constant defending of our attacking players here just shows professional leadership in my opinion. The fact that he plays Bellamy as often as possible shows though that he isn´t too happy with the ones we bought so far.

Let´s see what happens in summer. I would be suprised if we won´t sign big in terms of the quality of players this time.

[Abrak]

Although you were being sarcastic, it's ironic that this is ultimately what it boils down to. Statistics obviously have a bearing on a decision of whether or not to sign a player, just a bearing though. Feel free to build a team based on statistics, but if players don't click together then they don't click. Simple as that.

It's football not chess, now let's be done with this idle chit-chat and focus on today's kickabout and the matter of if Kenny will play both Suarez and Carroll 

I dont disagree. Statistics are simply a tool to aid you in your improvement of your results. Obviously when the maths go non-linnear it makes things more complicated.

However, at the other end of the scale we have Redknapp who claims to be incompetent, disorganized, stupid, unable to write etc and is such a successful manager that he will almost certainly become the manager of England. On that basis you could argue that for a manager 'intelligence is bullshit', 'literacy a waste of time', 'disorganization useful', 'tactical awareness crap' and 'total incompetence a positive benefit' to managing a football club.

[Samee]

£20m for Stewart Downing is even worse than the Robbie Keane transfer. At least Keane contributed somewhat and when it was clear things wouldn't work out was shipped off sharpish.

Not good enough, was never good enough, never will be good enough.

20 million. 20 fucking million.

Was there NO OTHER player out there for our left side for that sort of money? No other player whatsoever? I'm not gonna sit here and suggest players because that's not my job. Sort it out Comolli. Wasn't one of the reasons for signing English that if things go wrong you can still make most of the money back? Well then, Downing must go in the summer. Don't think he'd offer much as a squad player either. Move him on ASAP, cash in on whatever you can and put that money towards a proper top class creative player.

[surfer. Fuck you generator.]

However, at the other end of the scale we have Redknapp who claims to be incompetent, disorganized, stupid, unable to write etc and is such a successful manager that he will almost certainly become the manager of England. On that basis you could argue that for a manager 'intelligence is bullshit', 'literacy a waste of time', 'disorganization useful', 'tactical awareness crap' and 'total incompetence a positive benefit' to managing a football club.

You could also argue Redknapp is lying