Topic: Moneyball, Soccernomics and Liverpool's transfer policy

[Gnurglan]

Age is a factor. I think we've had an obvious example at LM/RM. Last season we had Maxi, Jovanovic, Kuyt and Cole, all close to 30 for those positions. It was a given we had to do something about that. So we signed Downing and Henderson (IMO he was signed for RM, there was no need for another CM). All of a sudden there was no urgent need to replace Maxi or Kuyt because of age. That was good management, but it's quite obvious stuff, nothing you need stats for. (Yet it was not obvious enough to Hodgson for some reason.)

But age is not everything. It's just one factor. One that has to be considered all the time. For example, we need to think about Carra's, Gerrard's, Bellamy's, Kuyt's and Maxi's replacements. Now. Doesn't mean we need to replace all immediately, just that we need to consider the replacements.

Perhaps we have forgotten something important though, which Brentie has mentioned tonight - the winning mentality.

[LSD_Dave]

The problem is that the analysis of stats looked for chance creating players and relied on two main strikers - carroll and Suarez - who are not free flowing natural goals scorers.  I had hoped that we would have bought wingers and CM whose stats show that they can create and score goals.  I believe Arda Turan had a good assist and goal rate.  The other issue was that they wanted British players which skewed the stats in that direction.  Then on top of that the stats focussed on prem players.  This effectively missed out on a lot of players.  It was a policy to give a foundation for the following years - a backbone of young british players.  Though we are sixth, I still do not thing it was the right thing to do.

However it is not all to do with purchasing players.  We were playing some good football last year and Maxi was getting into the box, as was miereless.  Kuyt was also following through into the box as well. Aqualani would also have been ideal for the runs that Suarez makes.  We also do not have players who can create something out of nothing, whether goals or assists

[Schmidt]

We got Bellamy on a free.

John Henry said clearly, on twitter, in the Summer that we werent going to spend money buy players of a certain age.

And I dont give a fuck waht others said about Downing, as I never said anything of the sort. I aint talking about anyone else's opinion, Im talking about mine.

We still paid wages and agent/player fees for Bellamy, and given the amount we spent for most of our players I doubt resale value was of the highest priority.

In my opinion we've gone for players who are good enough now, but have the potential to improve hugely. Henderson has been getting better with every game, although he's now adjusting to a deeper role, Adam has been improving, Suarez will improve with better weather and a rest I think, Downing and Carroll admittedly haven't lived up to expectations. Kenny and Comolli have definitely gone for immediate improvement, but the squad simply isn't reaching the level expected at the moment, in attack at least.

[thekitkatshuffler]

And without stats how would you assess their 'quality'?

Watch football matches.

[trembles97]

Did we give a toss about Bellamys age when we bought him? Downings? People on here were outraged when Downing came in because 27 was apparently too old, and now that we're not comfortably in the top 4 at christmas people are suddenly complaining that youth doesn't win games.

Get a grip.

You missed the point.

Bellamy plays like he has testicles. He wants to fucking kill everyone and stop at no cost.

Does Downing play like that? Does Carroll?

Yeah, I know that confidence is hard to find, but there comes a time when you just have to throw that out the window and focus all your frustration on beating your opponent. All you should want is to win, score goals, and murder anyone that gets in your way.

Play with a chip on your shoulder, thats all I ask.

[trembles97]

And without stats how would you assess their 'quality'?

Watch football matches and assess players with the following standard:

1. Do they play for their wages, or for their love of the game?

2. Do they play with swagger and confidence, or play like pansies?

3. Do they have an insatiable desire to win?

4. Do they have a footballing brain, or are they tactically stupid?

5. Do they know how to handle the media, or are they arrogant pricks?

Players that fit into the majority of this description: Pepe, Agger, Skrtel, Enrique, Johnson, Carra, Gerrard, Lucas, Kelly, Hendo, Suarez, Dirk, and Spearing.

We just need a winger who isn't a pussy, because Downing is a pussy. He just doesn't have that extra level of drive.

[Camarero25]

Kenny has the final say on transfer so it'd be down to whether Kenny loves Bent not Comolli.

We'll sign Bent, because he's average and British.

[ShibbyLFC]

We spent a lot of money in the summer bringing in players that statistically were some of the best chance creators around. We're creating tons of chances.

Now we need to use this same statistical analysis to bring in someone (preferably in January) who is a deadly finisher, and I have no doubt that we will. Because of this, I am not worried.

The future is bright, the future is red.

[LiverpoolKopKings]

We spent a lot of money in the summer bringing in players that statistically were some of the best chance creators around. We're creating tons of chances.

Now we need to use this same statistical analysis to bring in someone (preferably in January) who is a deadly finisher, and I have no doubt that we will. Because of this, I am not worried.

The future is bright, the future is red.

exactly, altough at the moment it's still early after 2 consecutive drab draws and am still feeling depressed, I echo your feeling.

We just need one that can easily bang them in with his eyes closed. He doesn't need to be gifted in any other dept as we're putting the ball in the small box vicinity quite often but we lack the presence of a deadly finisher.

[DanA]

Watch football matches and assess players with the following standard:

1. Do they play for their wages, or for their love of the game?

2. Do they play with swagger and confidence, or play like pansies?

3. Do they have an insatiable desire to win?

4. Do they have a footballing brain, or are they tactically stupid?

5. Do they know how to handle the media, or are they arrogant pricks?

Players that fit into the majority of this description: Pepe, Agger, Skrtel, Enrique, Johnson, Carra, Gerrard, Lucas, Kelly, Hendo, Suarez, Dirk, and Spearing.

We just need a winger who isn't a pussy, because Downing is a pussy. He just doesn't have that extra level of drive.

I bet the scouts at Oakland A's & the Red socks were saying the same thing.

[ShibbyLFC]

exactly, altough at the moment it's still early after 2 consecutive drab draws and am still feeling depressed, I echo your feeling.

We just need one that can easily bang them in with his eyes closed. He doesn't need to be gifted in any other dept as we're putting the ball in the small box vicinity quite often but we lack the presence of a deadly finisher.

would prefer someone who can bang them in but also still create some chances for himself and others. Carroll can bang them in. we've seen the ball fly off his foot very sweetly. but he relies on others so much that he's not getting the chances necessary.
my favorite links so far have been Higuain, Cavani, Podolski, and Soldado. If you could have one, who would you pick? Personally I think Podolski would be a cheaper move and a good January possibility, and the others would be more feasible in the summer.

[In the Name of Klopp]

Statistics are bullshit in football.

Do stats tell you how a player will fare in a different environment? No.

I've watched for years while different Liverpool managers have spent absolute fortunes on players from premier league clubs. I've listened to people telling me how, 18, 20 or 35m was worth paying for a player as they are "premier league proven". And I've watched for years as those big money signing completely balls up the minute thye arrive at Anfield.

We need to sign players that will fucking revel being at a big club. That will look at their surroundings and say, FUCK YES, this is fucking it. Im going to fucking rock this place and add to its legend.

Instead, we buy players that shrink. That dont know what its like to play for a club with 24/7 media glare, in front of demanding fans that have seen it, who expect wins every time out and demand nothing but the best. Im sick and tired of seeing players like Carroll, Henderson, Keane, Pennant,Downing Barmby et all absolutely shrink through the sheer force of expectation.

The stats will tell you Downing and Henderson created x amount of chances for their previous clubs and thats all good. But I couldnt give a fuck what you did in front of a mute Villa Park in March, with your team 13th of the table. I couldnt give a fuck if you're scoring goals for Newcastle, or crossing the ball well at the Stadium of Light.

When you put on a Red shirt, everything changes. You become famous the world over. Your every move is watched. Your performances are scrutinised the world over from fans at the ground ,to hundreds of journalists to fans on tv.

There's no amount of stats that will tell you whether a player has the mentality to cope with that pressure, that expectation, that scrutiny. That's why the mentality of a player is so important for us to know about. That's why the argument of being "prem proven", spoken by absolute fuck wits who are unable to think for themselves, is an absolute fallacy. That's why its completely ridiculous for us to spend double or triple what a player is worth simply because he has an English passport and has experience in this league.

Our recruitment needs to change. Our philosophy needs to change. Instead of spending obscene amounts of money on a couple of potentially good players with English passports and decent stats, we need to go buy winners. We need to go fucking look for warriors, people who will be willing to fucking tackle their own grandmothers in order to win a game. People that have either proved they have the bollocks to play for a big club, or have the passion and burning desire to be a success at a big club.

And you wont find that in stats.

Good post Brentie!

[trembles97]

I bet the scouts at Oakland A's & the Red socks were saying the same thing.

No.... they based their decisions off of statistics.

I'm saying that we should open up the player's chest and see how big his heart is. Only way we can do that is watch football matches.

[Brentieke]

We'll sign Bent

Trust me, we wont.

[LiverpoolKopKings]

would prefer someone who can bang them in but also still create some chances for himself and others. Carroll can bang them in. we've seen the ball fly off his foot very sweetly. but he relies on others so much that he's not getting the chances necessary.
my favorite links so far have been Higuain, Cavani, Podolski, and Soldado. If you could have one, who would you pick? Personally I think Podolski would be a cheaper move and a good January possibility, and the others would be more feasible in the summer.

Unfortunately January is not that good for transfers, especially for strikers, not to mention our attractiveness or lack of. We need to find a young gem somewhere that everybody else is ignoring, like a Rush. The players you're mentioning will be attracting other clubs, and sadly in our situation we'd be punching above our weight.

[JackWard33]

Don't have time to post a full response by just wanted to say I couldn't disagree more with Brentie's post.

It's full of mythology and the kind of backward thinking that's allowed this club to fall behind so badly.

Less than a year of trying to implement a new approach at the club and despite all the progress made many of you want to throw it in the bin and discredit whats being done presumably
to go back to the 'will they get stuck in and play for the shirt' mentality that's served us so poorly as a metric for the last 20 years. Christ by that metric Neil Mellor should be banging them in for us week in week out.

Personally I'll stick with a group of players many of whom are yet to reach their prime and a method that's in it's infancy - both of which ate obviously showing progress - over a 'let's look for warriors' dogma - for a while longer thanks

[G1 Jockey 4(betfair)]

lol at the new buzzword "stats"

if you don't know the reason behind a stat they are fkin useless.


in fact just using stats is just plain laziness

[tamadic]

Higuain, Cavani, Podolski, Bent, and Soldado... I think all cost more than 20M. Especially the first 2, no chance at all. As Brentie suggested though, who has the warriors instinct?

Btw, I think we were too over focus on potential last summer.
Don't think buying Adam was bad, but for me, I would pay a bit more to sign Parker.
Of course, it is against the MoneyBall to sign an old player.
However, he could have provided experience and cover for Lucas.
Unless we can sell Carroll, I don't think we have enough funds to buy a star striker along with a good DM.

[thejbs]

Another factor, a major factor at that, is our league position and lack of European football.  Even if we have the money we might not be able to attract every player we want.  Henry seemed to intimate in the summer that they wanted Mata.  If that is the case then he chose Chelsea over Liverpool.  We've not had CL football in two seasons and are not best placed to get it this season.  Is our history enough to make us attract quality players?  I'm not so sure...  even with all their millions, City struggled at first to get the players they wanted.

[Lille Camille]

Higuain, Cavani, Podolski, Bent, and Soldado... I think all cost more than 20M. Especially the first 2, no chance at all. As Brentie suggested though, who has the warriors instinct?

We don't sign those kinds of players. Except Bent. We love the Daren Bents of the world.

[ShibbyLFC]

well we're right in the hunt for 4th, only 3 points off.  a striker should look at us and see that we've had goalscoring problems and are a prolific striker away from vaulting ourselves into the top 4. a top striker should see that he has a great chance of guaranteed first team football here because we're desperately lacking that finishing touch. why I think Podolski is possible is because he's not in the champions league now, he's not exactly rushing to sign a new contract with his club, he's said he'd like to leave germany, and only has a year and a bit left on his contract. for those reasons also, I think he'd cost less than 20m.

[Fauxy]

lol at the new buzzword "stats"

if you don't know the reason behind a stat they are fkin useless.


in fact just using stats is just plain laziness

Agree'd 100% !

Stats are constantly used to manipulate reality. Cant stand them

[kaz1983]

So it has to have been DC  that splurged on Carroll?

That is pissing me off, lets say Carroll had turned out to be cracking signing no doubt Kenny would be getting the credit for the signing of him.

[Lille Camille]

That is pissing me off, lets say Carroll had turned out to be cracking signing no doubt Kenny would be getting the credit for the signing of him.

,
Do you think Kenny was given 50 million to spend after being manager for 2 weeks? No Commolli was brought in around October/November. Damien was responsible for Carroll but that means he was also responsible for Suarez.

[kaz1983]

,
Do you think Kenny was given 50 million to spend after being manager for 2 weeks? No Commolli was brought in around October/November. Damien was responsible for Carroll but that means he was also responsible for Suarez.

I believe Dalglish wanted Carroll and believed he was worth 25 million pounds -the amount Spurs bid for Andy... and made it known to Commolli.

In Kenny Dalglish’s column in the Daily Mail last November, he made this chalkboard highlighting just how it worked:



He held an opinion on Carroll and it seems he was a fan of him since 2010.

It's Commolli who spent an extra 10 million pounds on him but make no mistake Dalglish really wanted the signing of Carroll to happen.

[ryatnalkar]

Don't have time to post a full response by just wanted to say I couldn't disagree more with Brentie's post.

It's full of mythology and the kind of backward thinking that's allowed this club to fall behind so badly.

Less than a year of trying to implement a new approach at the club and despite all the progress made many of you want to throw it in the bin and discredit whats being done presumably
to go back to the 'will they get stuck in and play for the shirt' mentality that's served us so poorly as a metric for the last 20 years. Christ by that metric Neil Mellor should be banging them in for us week in week out.

Personally I'll stick with a group of players many of whom are yet to reach their prime and a method that's in it's infancy - both of which ate obviously showing progress - over a 'let's look for warriors' dogma - for a while longer thanks

I second this. Of course warriors are needed and although there is no stat for looking at that, you can't have 11 warriors on the pitch as a single frustrating moment can cause 5 red cards in an instance. For everything that can be looked at with a statistics microscope is checked (hopefully) with that and for the rest of the characteristics, I think the managers just take an instinctive hit on a player and try to keep the balance of the team. Its not just as simple as finding warriors and we win. Its not true (at least entirely) that these guys who were 13th in the league who could cross it without media limelight can not do it here because of the media attention. After a set of players are signed its the turn of the players and the manager to learn from each other, for players to understand the managers approach, tactics, setup and for managers to see what the players and alter his approach and if both sides do their things well, the result is a good winning side.

Football is not about putting 11 warriors on the pitch.

[LF]

Statistics are bullshit in football.

I agree with this. Downing could have had a lot of assists to his name right now if we only finished off chances. instead stats show zero assists for him.

[kaz1983]

I agree with this. Downing could have had a lot of assists to his name right now if we only finished off chances. instead stats show zero assists for him.

It all depends how you look at them, the way.... if you look at how many chances Downing has created for his team-mates stats wise, it shows that he if there was better finishing he should have had a handful of assists to his name at least.

[Gnurglan]

This chance creation stuff, I don't like how it's being used. We use it as a shield. To protect players who don't score and don't make assists. To make them look better than they are.

Ask yourself this, have you ever heard someone use chance creation to measure the likes of Messi, Ronaldo, Aguero, Silva etc? Before it turned up as some sort of x factor this last summer? It's unheard of, because what those players actually deliver to the team is impressive enough. I guess you might hear about it when they no longer deliver as much.

[Smug Cassandra]

Where to start on LFC and transfers.

Since 15th April 1991 when Ronnie Moran left things have been on the slide on the field.
Since 1990 when John Smith stood down as Chairman things have been on the slide off the field.

Why?

Liverpool has been a poorly administered club. Hugely poor decision making (maybe with the exception of bringing in Rafa) has taken its toll. Its taken us from the pinnacle of british and European football to 6th in the Premier League.

Fundamental to this has been a lack of investment in a stadium, ownership issues, and a transfer policy which is poor and chaotic.

You can Moneyball your way to Kansas mate. We have had money to spend over the years and have bought well at times but the underlying fact is that we havent spent the money we have had well and have not won the Premier League as a consequence and quite frankly we have spent enough money either.

To me our biggest error is the rehashing of mistakes. We learn the hard way permanently. We time after time get the blend of industry, creativity and quality wrong. Now we have lots of industry and no artistry hence why we cant breakdown teams.

FSG are new and that is part of the problem.

[steveeastend]

This chance creation stuff, I don't like how it's being used. We use it as a shield. To protect players who don't score and don't make assists. To make them look better than they are.

Ask yourself this, have you ever heard someone use chance creation to measure the likes of Messi, Ronaldo, Aguero, Silva etc? Before it turned up as some sort of x factor this last summer? It's unheard of, because what those players actually deliver to the team is impressive enough. I guess you might hear about it when they no longer deliver as much.

Absolutely. And it´s been started to be coming from the club as well now and I don´t like it at all. On LFC.tv there seems to be this sort of "opinion" build up on going on like how good we are in fact and that it´s just because of those missed chances and all.

I think we are on a good way but the whining irritates me a little. We have to build up from here, improve the quality in attack and work even harder, just like Agger pointed out.

To me it´s an excuse as I don´t think it has anything to do with believe or anything similar. It´s the quality missing in our attacking play, simple as and it´s very similar to the "Rafa" situation where I always thought we are just two major signings away from becoming really good. But then we went on and bought Crouch, or Keane...

[steveeastend]

To me our biggest error is the rehashing of mistakes. We learn the hard way permanently. We time after time get the blend of industry, creativity and quality wrong. Now we have lots of industry and no artistry hence why we cant breakdown teams.

FSG are new and that is part of the problem.

I agree. But I do think that FSG are willing to avoid making the same mistake twice. And more so to put these mistakes right with the required amount of money. And that´s new.

[Nessy76]

To me our biggest error is the rehashing of mistakes. We learn the hard way permanently. We time after time get the blend of industry, creativity and quality wrong. Now we have lots of industry and no artistry hence why we cant breakdown teams.

How is it we keep on hitting the woodwork and having shots saved or off-target if "we can't breakdown teams"? We are getting the ball into the right places, and getting men onto the ball in dangerous areas often enough too. There's nothing wrong with the creativity the team is showing, the only major problem has been the finishing.

[LiverpoolKopKings]

How is it we keep on hitting the woodwork and having shots saved or off-target if "we can't breakdown teams"? We are getting the ball into the right places, and getting men onto the ball in dangerous areas often enough too. There's nothing wrong with the creativity the team is showing, the only major problem has been the finishing.

exactly. what is finally very encouraging is that even if the opposition are intent on parking a fleet of busses in front of goal, we still are somehow finding our way in with very good chances. sadly we're just either hitting the woodwork, shooting slightly wide or more depressingly just aiming at the goalie. There's also the fact that every opposition goalie seems to be man of the match material against us.

We are so attack minded at the moment that sadly we're also prone to suffer from the rare only half decent counter and the opposition just happens to score from the only shot at goal. we jsut need to score first and then keep going.

[Mizerooskie]

Statistics are bullshit in football.

Do stats tell you how a player will fare in a different environment? No.

I've watched for years while different Liverpool managers have spent absolute fortunes on players from premier league clubs. I've listened to people telling me how, 18, 20 or 35m was worth paying for a player as they are "premier league proven". And I've watched for years as those big money signing completely balls up the minute thye arrive at Anfield.

We need to sign players that will fucking revel being at a big club. That will look at their surroundings and say, FUCK YES, this is fucking it. Im going to fucking rock this place and add to its legend.

Instead, we buy players that shrink. That dont know what its like to play for a club with 24/7 media glare, in front of demanding fans that have seen it, who expect wins every time out and demand nothing but the best. Im sick and tired of seeing players like Carroll, Henderson, Keane, Pennant,Downing Barmby et all absolutely shrink through the sheer force of expectation.

The stats will tell you Downing and Henderson created x amount of chances for their previous clubs and thats all good. But I couldnt give a fuck what you did in front of a mute Villa Park in March, with your team 13th of the table. I couldnt give a fuck if you're scoring goals for Newcastle, or crossing the ball well at the Stadium of Light.

When you put on a Red shirt, everything changes. You become famous the world over. Your every move is watched. Your performances are scrutinised the world over from fans at the ground ,to hundreds of journalists to fans on tv.

There's no amount of stats that will tell you whether a player has the mentality to cope with that pressure, that expectation, that scrutiny. That's why the mentality of a player is so important for us to know about. That's why the argument of being "prem proven", spoken by absolute fuck wits who are unable to think for themselves, is an absolute fallacy. That's why its completely ridiculous for us to spend double or triple what a player is worth simply because he has an English passport and has experience in this league.

Our recruitment needs to change. Our philosophy needs to change. Instead of spending obscene amounts of money on a couple of potentially good players with English passports and decent stats, we need to go buy winners. We need to go fucking look for warriors, people who will be willing to fucking tackle their own grandmothers in order to win a game. People that have either proved they have the bollocks to play for a big club, or have the passion and burning desire to be a success at a big club.

And you wont find that in stats.

I absolutely agree with the thrust of this post, but it's nearly impossible to know how a player will react to being in the spotlight.  For instance, watching Carroll batter centrebacks at Newcastle, how would one know he couldn't be bothered to make an aggressive run at the back post in a Liverpool shirt? 

I think sometimes you just miss on a player.  All clubs do.  We've seemingly missed on Carroll, but hit big on Suarez.  I'm not ready to write off either Downing or Henderson yet, as neither has even gotten half a season.

[ReeNah]

I thought it was a great article personally. He never stated it was all God given facts, just his opinons and interpretations.

Well done lad!

[leivapool]

Another factor, a major factor at that, is our league position and lack of European football.  Even if we have the money we might not be able to attract every player we want.  Henry seemed to intimate in the summer that they wanted Mata.  If that is the case then he chose Chelsea over Liverpool.  We've not had CL football in two seasons and are not best placed to get it this season.  Is our history enough to make us attract quality players?  I'm not so sure...  even with all their millions, City struggled at first to get the players they wanted.

I agree.  I was watching LFCtv over christmas, and Paul Dalglish was goin in of the reasons it's so hard to get the right players for LFC.

Firstly do we want to pay the price?
If it's January then players will be more expensive and clubs will not let a player go until they have a replacement lined up - think housing market chains here.
Can we afford the wages?
Will the player come - many overseas players want to be based in London, and of course we don't have champions league
And thats even before other clubs try and get the best players.

It's tough to get players to come to LFC, with us not being in the CL, even before transfer fees and wages.  Only rarely do players of Suarez's quality put aside their short term aspirations to see the bigger picture, what the team will become, not what it will win for the now.  This partly explains the British experiment.  We just couldn't get the Mata's of this world.  Hopefully the signing of Henderson and Coates shows we are getting the future world class players so can build from within, rather than be subject to the vagaries of the market for proven class talent.

[steveeastend]

I agree to some extent but then again it´s still possible to do better in some positions than we did. There ARE alway options, it´s just a question if you are quick enough and willing to do it.

With the new owners, it shouldn´t be a problem to get the next to the very top international players like Podolski and top local talents like Shelvey.

[Gnurglan]

I agree to some extent but then again it´s still possible to do better in some positions than we did. There ARE alway options, it´s just a question if you are quick enough and willing to do it.

With the new owners, it shouldn´t be a problem to get the next to the very top international players like Podolski and top local talents like Shelvey.

We underestimate our ability to attract players. We may not be able to get players from Barca or Real, but that's not necessary and perhaps not even what we want. Reina, Sami, Xabi, Arbeloa, Mascherano, Torres, Suarez... we could get them. Very good players who took a step up to come to LFC. If we're clever, we can get that kind of quality and we can offer better wages than most, plus we don't have the same competition as the very best clubs. Means you have a chance to get a very big role at LFC. And let's not forget that the chance to play with Reina, Gerrard and Suarez is something few get the opportunity to experience.

[Giono]

well we're right in the hunt for 4th, only 3 points off.  a striker should look at us and see that we've had goalscoring problems and are a prolific striker away from vaulting ourselves into the top 4. a top striker should see that he has a great chance of guaranteed first team football here because we're desperately lacking that finishing touch. why I think Podolski is possible is because he's not in the champions league now, he's not exactly rushing to sign a new contract with his club, he's said he'd like to leave germany, and only has a year and a bit left on his contract. for those reasons also, I think he'd cost less than 20m.

I think the same. If I was a striker and saw the service that is wasted here, I'd want to come.