Topic: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)

[mullyred94]

This is why looking at numbers alone isn't good for anyone. Context is everything. If you just look at his numbers he's had a good season. If you've watched every Liverpool game this season I would say he hasn't been good enough. Boils down to that really.

Did you watch any games prior to 6 weeks ago?

[PaleBlueDot]

Did you watch any games prior to 6 weeks ago?

Yes. He's had hot and cold moments throughout the season. Overall not good enough. It's not just the past few weeks. He's not been terrible as some make out...but overall not good enough for US. He can get there with improvement. He'll probably get the chance next season too.

[JackWard33]

This is why looking at numbers alone isn't good for anyone. Context is everything.

Yeah that’s specially why I asked you the question beyond the numbers

How has he scored goals at a good rate despite bieng a terrible finisher?

[PaleBlueDot]

Yeah that’s specially why I asked you the question beyond the numbers

How has he scored goals at a good rate despite bieng a terrible finisher?

Because he plays in one of the most attacking teams in the league and gets a ridiculous amount of chances that allows him to take the most shots of anyone in the Premier League?

Sure some of those chances is Darwin's ability to get into those positions but how much of a net positive is that. We could have a slower striker taking not 105 shots but maybe 75. But scoring more than 11.

Not saying I want him out but I'm adding perspective to what people think is 'good'.

[stjohns]

And what’s your answer to my question?

How has he scored goals at a good rate despite bieng a terrible finisher?

He's just very frustrating. What we wanted/needed, was the Newcastle/Bournemouth version of Darwin Nunez. Hopefully, we get it consistently next season.
Sorry, that didn't answer your question. Meant to post as a separate point.

[Paul JH]

How has he scored goals at a good rate despite bieng a terrible finisher?

He is a terrible finisher though... we give him twice as many chances as he puts away. Yes, he's got a decent return but should have way more too. I don't know how that's seen as difficult to understand?

If he had some composure, i.e. the Pickford head down, blast right at him (imagine that being Firmino), he'd have twice as many goals.

He gets cut a LOT of slack because of the 'agent of chaos' bollocks surrounding him and the fact he goes a bit mental when he scores and works up the crowd. He's a a decent player, and if Slot can get him scoring, brilliant, but he's unbelievably slack with his finishing again. Has had one purple patch in two seasons. It's not good enough.

[Bennett]

Yes that's better. And that's why there's zero chance we'll sell him.

One league cup, one season out of the Champions League. The new normal. Looking forward to it.

[JackWard33]

Because he plays in one of the most attacking teams in the league and gets a ridiculous amount of chances that allows him to take the most shots of anyone in the Premier League?

Sure some of those chances is Darwin's ability to get into those positions but how much of a net positive is that. We could have a slower striker taking not 105 shots but maybe 75. But scoring more than 11.

Not saying I want him out but I'm adding perspective to what people think is 'good'.

You've gone to 'he's not good at finishing'
I was trying to answer your first point which is you don't understand why strikers dont control which chances they score and which they don't .. which is a question about the importance or non-importance of finishing and the level of agency strikers have in it.
Strikers failure rate at converting chances (>75% even when they're hot) should make it obvious they don't control outcomes.. why wouldn't they just score every chance...
What analytics has allowed us to do is understand what influences what makes the difference between players goal outputs at the top level and the most significant factor that's predictable over time is not 'finishing ability'

There are two ways view Nunez, broadly speaking...
You either look at him and conclude - he gets into dangerous locations more than other strikers/forwards consistently therefore he is a high value forward and extremely difficult to replace OR he's not a good finisher therefore he's not a high value forward and can be replaced

The reason he can score at more than a goal every other game per 90 from open play which is rare and WHICH HE DOES CONSISTENTLY .. for Liverpool, with our first team, with lesser elevens in other competitions, for Benfica, for Almeria, for Uruguay ... is that the location and volume of shots a striker takes is the most important skill in the goals they score.

Finishing affects output but at a far lesser a degree and with way less seperation between top level players than the above... and he's living proof because he's had a bad a finishing run for us as its possible to have and yet he still scores at 1 in 2 from open play

[JackWard33]

Yes, he's got a decent return but should have way more too. I don't know how that's seen as difficult to understand?

Everyone understands he's had a bad finishing season in the league and he should have more goals .. no one's arguing he hasn't

[Kopenhagen]

He is a terrible finisher though... we give him twice as many chances as he puts away. Yes, he's got a decent return but should have way more too. I don't know how that's seen as difficult to understand?

If he had some composure, i.e. the Pickford head down, blast right at him (imagine that being Firmino), he'd have twice as many goals.

He gets cut a LOT of slack because of the 'agent of chaos' bollocks surrounding him and the fact he goes a bit mental when he scores and works up the crowd. He's a a decent player, and if Slot can get him scoring, brilliant, but he's unbelievably slack with his finishing again. Has had one purple patch in two seasons. It's not good enough.

Not wading into this insane asylum of a thread but Bobby missed lots of chances in his time here, so did Mane, so has Salah, etc. There's the hagiography of Bobby and Sadio lately that just isn't reality. They were elite footballers that created and missed piles of chances.

[PEG2K]

If Nunez was a pure 9 why has he got such a good assist rate ?

Also like I’ve stated his played 1/3 of his games at LW just like Luis Diaz does.

If his the lowest in SCA why is he the second highest in GCA?

Not like our LW has an xA of 10, his bang on for his assists.

Nunez played one game as LW in the league this season . Get your facts straight. And pure 9s can have a decent amount of assists too. If you play high up the pitch and your team has another goal outlet (in this case, Salah), you'll get assists.

5/8 of his assists are to Salah, all of them basic passes in the final third. Also 2/8 are heading flicks from corners. That simply comes as a result of playing most of your game near your opponents' goal + your team has another finisher. The "creativity" of Nunez is often blown out of proportion due to his assists but it's not like he was dropping deep spraying passes across the pitch and threading throughballs all over the place like a Harry Kane or a Robin van Persie.

And that also explains why he's 11th in the team in SCA90 but 3rd in GCA90 (third, not second), because surely the average distance to the goal of shots is much longer than that of goals. Need more clarifications? Here it goes:
- In SCA90, he's behind Diaz, Trent, Salah, Szobo, Robbo, Elliott, Tsimikas, Macca, Jota, Gakpo. Notice how all our creative outlets, who are involved in the build up phase, are ahead of him?
- In GCA90, he's behind Jota and Salah, and ahead of Gakpo, Macca, Elliott, Bradley, Diaz, Trent, Szobo, Robbo. Notice how the two at the top are also our two best goal outlets?

Side note: Diaz should be in the top 5 in GCA90 too (the top 4 are literally our other 4 forwards, including even Gakpo who played in midfield at times), but he isn't. This is where the criticism about his end products becomes valid.

But the above also means Nunez being higher than Diaz in end products is not much of a thing to brag about. You're better than someone who's struggling badly for end products, while he also absolutely murders you in all the other categories related to possession, build up, and defending.

In a sense, you can say Diaz is Mane without the end products, and Nunez is Mane without the general play. Just shows how monstrous a player Mane was for us.

[PaleBlueDot]

There are two ways view Nunez, broadly speaking...
You either look at him and conclude - he gets into dangerous locations more than other strikers/forwards consistently therefore he is a high value forward and extremely difficult to replace OR he's not a good finisher therefore he's not a high value forward and can be replaced

The reason he can score at more than a goal every other game per 90 from open play which is rare and WHICH HE DOES CONSISTENTLY .. for Liverpool, with our first team, with lesser elevens in other competitions, for Benfica, for Almeria, for Uruguay ... is that the location and volume of shots a striker takes is the most important skill in the goals they score.

Finishing affects output but at a far lesser a degree and with way less seperation between top level players than the above... and he's living proof because he's had a bad a finishing run for us as its possible to have and yet he still scores at 1 in 2 from open play

Those two options is what it boils down to really. If he hits exactly the same figures he has this season next season would you want to continue with Darwin the season after?

[Jookie]

Everyone understands he's had a bad finishing season in the league and he should have more goals .. no one's arguing he hasn't

I think the crux of this is whether you think top tier forwards are elite finishers or whether they put themselves in a position to have a high volume of chances, and as long as finishing is average/good, means they score loads.

Personally I think it’s more the latter. Elite strikers, through movement, speed, strength, heading ability, get themselves in positions to have more chances than less talented forwards. I don’t necessarily think all elite forwards are amazing finishers. Just need to score at an average rate to bag goals if you are getting chances to score regularly.

I think Nunez put himself in positions to score regularly. For me that’s the hardest part. But his finishing has been erratic and below average. Feels like the easiest part of scoring is letting him down. I think Nicola Jackson at Chelsea is in a similar position. He’s a different player to Nunez but has a similar failing currently. Namely being a below average finisher.

I’d persist with Nunez if it was up to me. I’d do the same with Jackson if I was Chelsea. Need to see whether performing way below xG is variance or a fatal flaw. If either of those strikers performed to xG they’d have a fair few more goals each.

[Scottymuser]

He is a terrible finisher though... we give him twice as many chances as he puts away. Yes, he's got a decent return but should have way more too. I don't know how that's seen as difficult to understand?

If he had some composure, i.e. the Pickford head down, blast right at him (imagine that being Firmino), he'd have twice as many goals.

He gets cut a LOT of slack because of the 'agent of chaos' bollocks surrounding him and the fact he goes a bit mental when he scores and works up the crowd. He's a a decent player, and if Slot can get him scoring, brilliant, but he's unbelievably slack with his finishing again. Has had one purple patch in two seasons. It's not good enough.

But thats also the case for Diaz, who gets a free pass for running around a lot, despite not creating half as much as Nunez does and not tracking back as well as him to boot.  Don't believe me?  Nunez  has 11 goals from 14.9 npXG (so underperforms by 26.2%), Diaz has 8 goals from 11.1 npXG (so underperforms by 27.9%).  So presumably you would also say "Its not good enough" when talking about Diaz? 

[JackWard33]

Those two options is what it boils down to really. If he hits exactly the same figures he has this season next season would you want to continue with Darwin the season after?

if hes played the same amount of minutes were the same then yes of course - his gaol and assist return /90 is really good despite people bending over backwards to suggest it isn't .. I'd also want him studied in a lab because hitting the woodwork 9 times 2 league seasons in a row should be impossible

I have a totally different knock on Darwin this season to everyone else which is that he hasn't been available enough - what we really want is the exact same performance from him, his finishing luck to revert to the mean (which is likely) but him to not headbutt someone and to not have the injuries/niggles/slow recovery he's had this season ... our best players need to play 3000 league minutes for us to challenge

[PEG2K]

But thats also the case for Diaz, who gets a free pass for running around a lot, despite not creating half as much as Nunez does and not tracking back as well as him to boot.  Don't believe me?  Nunez  has 11 goals from 14.9 npXG (so underperforms by 26.2%), Diaz has 8 goals from 11.1 npXG (so underperforms by 27.9%).  So presumably you would also say "Its not good enough" when talking about Diaz?

Diaz does run around a lot lol, but don't think he gets a free pass . A lot of people here and the majority on our reddit are happy to sell him if PSG comes in with a good offer.

Both players are not delivering enough goals and have their deserved criticism. Diaz has his fair share, but Nunez has more because he is the no 9 and he is the club record signing.

[fowlermagic]

Seeing the statisticians are out how good was the conversion rates for our trio of Mane, Salah and Firminio as my fuzzy memory has me thinking they were not the greatest finishers either especially Mane and Salah. I like Nunez he's a mad hatter causing defenders to lose their cool, likewise with his finishing too as can drive us mad. It's a pity we didn't have the best of Trent and Robertson out wide serving up crosses as think Nunez would thrive better with crosses pinged into the box. We sort of gone back one step with our tippy tappy football where width is suffering n teams can defend us easier due to us not stretching them. Anyway Nunez is the future especially if someone tables a silly offer for Salah over the summer

[joezydudek]

You either look at him and conclude - he gets into dangerous locations more than other strikers/forwards consistently therefore he is a high value forward and extremely difficult to replace OR he's not a good finisher therefore he's not a high value forward and can be replaced

I think I'm somewhere on the fence here. I love the way he gets into positions, gets shots off, creates chances for others with his movement etc, and don't think there's an obvious upgrade on the market, or someone we could've signed at the time, who would be obviously better.
However, on the flip side, I don't see how people can look at his conversion rate or see the quality of many of the chances he's missed using the much-maligned 'eye-test' and not be really frustrated with him. His numbers are pretty good, but if he'd done all the things he's done so well while being more composed in front of goal, there would be no debate at all about how good he is.
No matter how we look at the data and whether people think it's the most important thing or not,  his shooting could have been so, so much better and whatever the excuses, unlucky to hit the woodwork, good goalkeeping, whatever, I and others are used to seeing better from great Liverpool forwards of the past, many who would've absolutely loved to be playing in this team rather than the ones they played in.
Maybe he'll get better when his xg reverts to the mean or maybe he'll stay the same throughout the time he's here, but we can only speculate at the moment, whether we're making highly educated guesses or not.
The way I'd feel about him if he left in the summer would be that he did a pretty good job and didn't deserve all the abuse that came his way, but that I'd also seen much better forwards at the club.
I very much doubt he will go in the summer, so what he does become will be interesting to see.

[Scottymuser]

Not wading into this insane asylum of a thread but Bobby missed lots of chances in his time here, so did Mane, so has Salah, etc. There's the hagiography of Bobby and Sadio lately that just isn't reality. They were elite footballers that created and missed piles of chances.

Mane in fact, in his last 6 seasons with us (the first fbref don't have xG numbers for), he only overachieved his xG TWICE.  As you said, there is this hagiography of him being a goal scorer, when apart from 2 seasons, he really wasn't  - it was more his all round tracking back anbd work rate, and the fact he came into a poorer team we remember him for.  Those two seasons, were his 3rd and 4th with us (and 5th and 6th in the PL) at the age of 26/27, and 27/28 (i.e. when a striker usually is at their peak, and 2 years older than Nunez is this season).  I'd argue that this season, Nunez, up until maybe the last 3-4 games, *HAS* been tracking back far more, pressing far more efficiently, etc - i.e. getting better at those parts of the game.  If you look at Mane's 4 other seasons, on average he under-archieved his xG by 13.9% btw - obviously not as bad as Nunez right now, but it would be quite simple for Nunez to up his production to that (if, say, 2 of the woodwork hits had gone in instead of being wonder saves, he'd be on 12.8%).


Firmino as well, if you look at his  last 6 seasons with us (the first 2 fbref don't have xG numbers for), he only overachieved his xG TWICE as well.  Those two seasons were his 3rd season (at the age of 25/26) and his last freakish season last year where he barely played but had his best ever year by miles.  Excepting those, similar to Mane, he under-achieved his xG by 19.7% - Nunez would only need *ONE* more goal to reach that level of underachievement this year.

[mullyred94]

But thats also the case for Diaz, who gets a free pass for running around a lot, despite not creating half as much as Nunez does and not tracking back as well as him to boot.  Don't believe me?  Nunez  has 11 goals from 14.9 npXG (so underperforms by 26.2%), Diaz has 8 goals from 11.1 npXG (so underperforms by 27.9%).  So presumably you would also say "Its not good enough" when talking about Diaz?

His also only got 5 assist from a 5 xA (diaz)

[Jookie]

our best players need to play 3000 league minutes for us to challenge

This is a good point in general. I actually think you need 7-9 of your best players hitting about 2800 league mins or more and +3500 mins in all comps.

Both City and Arsenal have hit those types of minute targets this season for a lot of their main men. We did the same in the 2018-22 period (2021 being obvious exception).

The  issue we’ve had this year is the likes of Gomez playing those types of minutes. As good as Gomez is, he’s not in our best 11-13 players. Players like Salah, Jota, Robertson, Trent are way below that 2800-3000’min threshold.

Is Nunez a player who you’d want to play 3000 minutes for a title challenging team? I suppose that’s the question everyone is grappling with.

[Paul JH]

But thats also the case for Diaz, who gets a free pass for running around a lot, despite not creating half as much as Nunez does and not tracking back as well as him to boot.  Don't believe me?  Nunez  has 11 goals from 14.9 npXG (so underperforms by 26.2%), Diaz has 8 goals from 11.1 npXG (so underperforms by 27.9%).  So presumably you would also say "Its not good enough" when talking about Diaz? 

What's weird is that you just assume I'd defend Diaz in this argument. I actually think Nunez should play left wing ahead of him, as he's as frustrating as Nunez but Nunez is better on the left, and yeah, I would say it's not good enough from Diaz, what's your point?

[Jookie]

What I think will be interesting with Nunez is reaction of the fans in next 2 home game.

He’s had unwavering support for nearly 2 seasons. However, I think there’s been a tipping point with some in last 4-6 weeks. I do wonder how that manifests in a home game if he misplaces a pass or misses a chance.

I’ve said on here I’d keep Nunez but he’s burnt my head out recently. I think he has too much promise not to give him another season. But I do think he’s at a crossroads in his Liverpool career, or at least relationship with the crowd, where another 12 months like the last 12 won’t be met with universal approval.

[Scottymuser]

Diaz does run around a lot lol, but don't think he gets a free pass . A lot of people here and the majority on our reddit are happy to sell him if PSG comes in with a good offer.

Both players are not delivering enough goals and have their deserved criticism. Diaz has his fair share, but Nunez has more because he is the no 9 and he is the club record signing.

And I fundamentally don't think it is fair for Nunez to get *significantly* more criticism on here given he *has* performed significantly better (Non-Pen goal or assist every 105 mins vs 185).  That should not be up for debate IMO.  Diaz is also in his 3rd season, for us, and is 2 years older (and therefore should be coming into his peak).

Being a number 9 *IS NOT ALL ABOUT SCORING* otherwise we would have judged Bobby a failure for 80% of his career, rather than a legend. 

I'll put it this way - if instead of 11 goals and 8 assists, it was 16 goals and 3 assists - would people have a problem with his season?  As they are *exactly* the same end result for the club, but that way is better for Nunez's personal record.

[mullyred94]

What I think will be interesting with Nunez is reaction of the fans in next 2 home game.

He’s had unwavering support for nearly 2 seasons. However, I think there’s been a tipping point with some in last 4-6 weeks. I do wonder how that manifests in a home game if he misplaces a pass or misses a chance.

I’ve said on here I’d keep Nunez but he’s burnt my head out recently. I think he has too much promise not to give him another season. But I do think he’s at a crossroads in his Liverpool career, or at least relationship with the crowd, where another 12 months like the last 12 won’t be met with universal approval.

Why just Nunez? Who stood up in the last 4-6 weeks?

[Scottymuser]

What's weird is that you just assume I'd defend Diaz in this argument. I actually think Nunez should play left wing ahead of him, as he's as frustrating as Nunez but Nunez is better on the left, and yeah, I would say it's not good enough from Diaz, what's your point?

Sorry - my point was more in general, I see very little criticism of Diaz, and when he is brought up nobody actually points out his xG performance is basically identical to Nunez - with loads of people saying he has been their best player this last month, or the only one who tries,  etc

[PaleBlueDot]

if hes played the same amount of minutes were the same then yes of course - his gaol and assist return /90 is really good despite people bending over backwards to suggest it isn't .. I'd also want him studied in a lab because hitting the woodwork 9 times 2 league seasons in a row should be impossible

I have a totally different knock on Darwin this season to everyone else which is that he hasn't been available enough - what we really want is the exact same performance from him, his finishing luck to revert to the mean (which is likely) but him to not headbutt someone and to not have the injuries/niggles/slow recovery he's had this season ... our best players need to play 3000 league minutes for us to challenge

Okay thanks for answering. Sums up the two sides of the debate. Because of 'good underlying numbers' you'd think another season of 10/11 premier league goals in 24/25 would be enough to warrant starting him again in 25/26...provided he is hitting 'good underlying numbers'.

[Mr Dilkington]

Okay thanks for answering. Sums up the two sides of the debate. Because of 'good underlying numbers' you'd think another season of 10/11 premier league goals in 24/25 would be enough to warrant starting him again in 25/26...provided he is hitting 'good underlying numbers'.

You're either arguing in bad faith or you aren't actually reading what is being said. Possibly both.

[PEG2K]

And I fundamentally don't think it is fair for Nunez to get *significantly* more criticism on here given he *has* performed significantly better (Non-Pen goal or assist every 105 mins vs 185).  That should not be up for debate IMO.  Diaz is also in his 3rd season, for us, and is 2 years older (and therefore should be coming into his peak).

Being a number 9 *IS NOT ALL ABOUT SCORING* otherwise we would have judged Bobby a failure for 80% of his career, rather than a legend. 

I'll put it this way - if instead of 11 goals and 8 assists, it was 16 goals and 3 assists - would people have a problem with his season?  As they are *exactly* the same end result for the club, but that way is better for Nunez's personal record.

And what's the purpose of this whataboutism? What's the argument you're looking for re Nunez? Go to the Diaz thread to give him criticism so that it balances out? Oh wait you already did. You wanted to trade him for McNeil.

That aside, you're not good at looking at the big picture are you? We all know Nunez is a traditional 9 and Firmino is the most false 9 you could ever have. Why pretends like they're just "both 9" to serve your agenda?

If you wonder why Nunez is judged mainly for his goals, read my post earlier and see why. As I dont see anynone among the Nunez lovers, even the great Al with all his out-of-context stats, can respond properly to this cold truth backed up with data. Dude is least involved in other sides of our game and mostly involved in the goal scoring phase. Of course he's judged by goals.

[Paul JH]

Sorry - my point was more in general, I see very little criticism of Diaz, and when he is brought up nobody actually points out his xG performance is basically identical to Nunez - with loads of people saying he has been their best player this last month, or the only one who tries,  etc

Mate, fully agree with you. I think Diaz hasn't been great for a large portion of this season, obviously his Dad situation had a lot to do with that around Christmas etc.

But I'd try Nunez left wing if, and it might happen, someone comes in for Diaz in the summer. I think Nunez best position is left anyway.

[mullyred94]

And what's the purpose of this whataboutism? What's the argument you're looking for re Nunez? Go to the Diaz thread to give him criticism so that it balances out? Oh wait you already did. You wanted to trade him for McNeil.

That aside, you're not good at looking at the big picture are you? We all know Nunez is a traditional 9 and Firmino is the most false 9 you could ever have. Why pretends like they're just "both 9" to serve your agenda?

If you wonder why Nunez is judged mainly for his goals, read my post earlier and see why. As I dont see anynone among the Nunez lovers, even the great Al, can respond properly to these cold truth backed up with data. Dude is least involved in other sides of our game and mostly involved in the goal scoring phase. Of course he's judged by goals.

If Diaz shot creating action so great why is his xA only 5 and GCA 9 which are both lower than Darwins?

On the Bobby comment, no where near the Technical player is Darwin but why was Bobby's assist's so loved yet it's being totally disregarded in terms of what a 9 can offer?

Isn't it about creating goals for a forward where he scores it or creates a goal what does it honestly matter as long as the team scores?

Why didn't Gakpo play the majority of the league games until recently then since his a similar mold to Bobby?

[Mr Dilkington]

And what's the purpose of this whataboutism? What's the argument you're looking for re Nunez? Go to the Diaz thread to give him criticism so that it balances out? Oh wait you already did. You wanted to trade him for McNeil.

That aside, you're not good at looking at the big picture are you? We all know Nunez is a traditional 9 and Firmino is the most false 9 you could ever have. Why pretends like they're just "both 9" to serve your agenda?

If you wonder why Nunez is judged mainly for his goals, read my post earlier and see why. As I dont see anynone among the Nunez lovers, even the great Al with all his out-of-context stats, can respond properly to these cold truth backed up with data. Dude is least involved in other sides of our game and mostly involved in the goal scoring phase. Of course he's judged by goals.

The post you've linked there was the perfect encapsulation of the fallacy Ian Graham talks about.

[Funky_Gibbons]

Some funny posts in here. “can’t trap a ball”, “no game intelligence”, “link up play of a lower league stuff”, “can’t control a ball”, “doesn’t get involved enough”.

 He’s 9th in the squad (minus youth team players) for number of times he mis-controls per 90-minutes, and 6th for number of times he’s dispossessed.





As for the lack of link-up play, he’s 9th for shot creation actions per 90 and 4th for goal creation actions per 90 (3rd highest in the Premier League only), with 11 of those coming through ‘live passes’ (only Salah is higher on 13). His “lack of link up play” has only brought 13-assists, the third highest assist per 90 and 5th highest expected assists. But yeah he only makes runs and takes shots.



As for the “lack of game intelligence” I guess this argument has some merit. On one hand he clearly has game intelligence as he constantly finds himself in good shooting positions, on the other hand maybe he should show more intelligence and just hang around outside the box and make non-threatening passes or keep dribbling the ball into blind alleys, as some of the players who do that seem immune from any criticism.

But, if people feel the forwards are at fault for a season in which we’ve probably far exceeded most expectations (finish top four, win a trophy) and gone a goal down in something like 22-games and needed several last minute goals to put in a title challenge that most didn’t expect; then I’d be looking at this table and working from the bottom up on players that aren’t contributing enough on goals+assists (and seem to get a free pass).

 

There is a definite argument that he misses too many chances, but at least he’s getting in there and is prepared to miss those chances, rather than doing nothing all game other than making negative passes or taking too many touches.

[Scottymuser]

Okay thanks for answering. Sums up the two sides of the debate. Because of 'good underlying numbers' you'd think another season of 10/11 premier league goals in 24/25 would be enough to warrant starting him again in 25/26...provided he is hitting 'good underlying numbers'.

Again - if he only playes the equivalent of 22 games (so less than 2/3 of a season), and scores 11 goals and gets 8 assists, then I'd be disapointed that he hadn't played more, and hadn't scored more goals - and thus hadn't developed at the same rate as this season.  I think that will depend on whether those 11 goals were scored at a 27% under-xg Par, or whether he just had significantly fewer chances (due to a change of style) but had got way more clinical.

But it is simply spinning the facts to say, as you have, that he has only scored 10/11 goals whilst ignoring he has not played much.  Even then, his 11 goals have come at a rate of 1 every 180 mins which is still more than decent (whilst maybe not being "elite").  Mane for instance averaged 1 every 178 mins across his career (and only twice averaged better than one every 172 mins). 

The other thing to note, is that it has been after he was rushed back after a muscle stiffness vs Luton that he has really found it difficult (2 goals, 0 assists in 530 mins) - the first 25 games he played 1460 mins (the equivalent of 16 games) and scored 9 goals, and got 8 assists - at a rate of a goal every 162 mins, or a goal involvement every 90 mins.  If he just went back to that form, then across a season, playing (say) 80% of the minutes available in the league, would net out to 17 goals and 12 assists.  25 games is far too many to call that a "purple patch", whilst trying to argue his form over 9 matches (well, really 5 - as he was very good vs City/Forest/Sheffield United/Brighton where he scored twice in 279 mins; it has only really been April that he has played poorly) is bad and he doesn't care etc.

Even if you net out the full season stats,  and assume the pre-injuryt form would not be replicable without a terrible patch like April, thats still 15 goals and 11 assists from 2700 mins. 

[Fromola]

It depends where that 2-3% comes.

Nunez had crucial misses in the FA Cup game with Manu, Manu away in the league, Atalanta at home, Everton away and so on. And this misses came at crucial periods, like scoring the opening goal.

And it's not a new criticism either. We were saying the same thing earlier in the season, like when he missed a costly open goal sitter against Luton at 0-0 which cost us 2 points (and it took Diaz to bail us out with a draw at the end) or the 0-0 at home to United

When he scored at the end at Forest you hoped that had clicked but he's offered nothing since but missed chances at crucial times and negligible overall play.

[mullyred94]

And it's not a new criticism either. We were saying the same thing earlier in the season, like when he missed a costly open goal sitter against Luton at 0-0 which cost us 2 points (and it took Diaz to bail us out with a draw at the end) or the 0-0 at home to United

When he scored at the end at Forest you hoped that had clicked but he's offered nothing since but missed chances at crucial times and negligible overall play.

I'm assuming we'll have 5 new forwards next season then.

[Jookie]

Why just Nunez? Who stood up in the last 4-6 weeks?

I’m not sure there’s massive justification for singling out Nunez and I’m not sure many are singling him out.

However it’s pretty obvious there’s be a sea change of opinion around Nunez in last 2 months. That’s from what I’ve read online, speaking to match going Reds etc.

There is recency bias to it. Gifting the ball away when 3-2 in extra time v United could be used as a stick to beat him with. The miss v Atalanta at 0-0’is a potential turning point. Miss v Palace. Sitters missed at Everton. Combine those crucial moments with a massive drop off in all round play is going to get noticed. Maybe more so when you are the No9 and one of the most expensive buys in the club history.

I think it’s wrong to single out Nunez. Or just look at the last 6 weeks and his mistakes. We win and lose as a team. However you are burying your head in the sand if you don’t think there’ll be more pressure on him during these last 2 home games and into next season. I don’t think this is right but people are frustrated and lots of people are frustrated with Nunez particularly. That’s very very obvious at this point.

[mullyred94]

I’m not sure there’s massive justification for singling out Nunez and I’m not sure many are singling him out.

However it’s pretty obvious there’s be a sea change of opinion around Nunez in last 2 months. That’s from what I’ve read online, speaking to match going Reds etc.

There is recency bias to it. Gifting the ball away when 3-2 in extra time v United could be used as a stick to beat him with. The miss v Atalanta at 0-0’is a potential turning point. Miss v Palace. Sitters missed at Everton. Combine those crucial moments with a massive drop off in all round play is going to get noticed. Maybe more so when you are the No9 and one of the most expensive buys in the club history.

I think it’s wrong to single out Nunez. Or just look at the last 6 weeks and his mistakes. We win and lose as a team. However you are burying your head in the sand if you don’t think there’ll be more pressure on him during these last 2 home games and into next season. I don’t think this is right but people are frustrated and lots of people are frustrated with Nunez particularly. That’s very very obvious at this point.

I agree with most of that, apologies thought you were suggesting that he should have been singled out.

[PEG2K]

Some funny posts in here. “can’t trap a ball”, “no game intelligence”, “link up play of a lower league stuff”, “can’t control a ball”, “doesn’t get involved enough”.

 He’s 9th in the squad (minus youth team players) for number of times he mis-controls per 90-minutes, and 6th for number of times he’s dispossessed.

As for the lack of link-up play, he’s 9th for shot creation actions per 90 and 4th for goal creation actions per 90 (3rd highest in the Premier League only), with 11 of those coming through ‘live passes’ (only Salah is higher on 13). His “lack of link up play” has only brought 13-assists, the third highest assist per 90 and 5th highest expected assists. But yeah he only makes runs and takes shots.

As for the “lack of game intelligence” I guess this argument has some merit. On one hand he clearly has game intelligence as he constantly finds himself in good shooting positions, on the other hand maybe he should show more intelligence and just hang around outside the box and make non-threatening passes or keep dribbling the ball into blind alleys, as some of the players who do that seem immune from any criticism.

But, if people feel the forwards are at fault for a season in which we’ve probably far exceeded most expectations (finish top four, win a trophy) and gone a goal down in something like 22-games and needed several last minute goals to put in a title challenge that most didn’t expect; then I’d be looking at this table and working from the bottom up on players that aren’t contributing enough on goals+assists (and seem to get a free pass).

There is a definite argument that he misses too many chances, but at least he’s getting in there and is prepared to miss those chances, rather than doing nothing all game other than making negative passes or taking too many touches.

First of all, you should do league only stats for consistency and reliability of the discussion.

Miscontrol and dispossessed stats are dependent on the positions and the style of play. You can't take the raw values and compare  them to go to a conclusion. For example, Jones is dispossesed second most in the team. Doesn't make sense for a player always praised for his ball retention and close control.

You have to adjust for the number of touches and take-ons they have, and where they have them (the more touches and take-ons a player has, the more raw numbers of miscontrol and dispossessed they have too, see Messi for example). It's way more complicated than what you're showing here. But as an educated guess, I can say since Nunez has the least touches and take-ons among the attacking players, it makes his miscontrols and dispossessed stats look better. Meanwhile, doesn't take much of an eye test to see his technique looks far less assured than any in our front 6.

He's 11th for SCA90, not 9th. And that's not something to brag about lol. He's 3rd in GCA90. That I can give you. But also I already explained that's because he plays highest up the pitch among our players and is least involved in the general build up.

[istvan kozma]

Yes. He's had hot and cold moments throughout the season. Overall not good enough. It's not just the past few weeks. He's not been terrible as some make out...but overall not good enough for US. He can get there with improvement. He'll probably get the chance next season too.

There's a reason he's starting & finishing the season on the bench. No matter how many Xg charts and diagrams people try to brainwash you with, he's been a disappointment thus far, considering he's the club record signing.