Topic: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)

[PaleBlueDot]

You're either arguing in bad faith or you aren't actually reading what is being said. Possibly both.

Huh? I'm not arguing. I asked that question to gauge how much he values the underlying numbers that Nunez is showing. I asked the question to see whether actual numbers would question the underlying numbers, and over how much time. Which is the issue here. Some people are already fed up he hasn't lived to his promise. Some think his promise will be fulfilled. At what point do you decide enough and move on? For me I would be happy to see him next season but also indifferent if he leaves now. The underlying numbers are impressive but not enough for me. 

Jack seems comfortable with an average of (hypothetically) 10 goals a season over 3(!) seasons, enough to want him to start a 4th Season as our number 9. We differ in that regard but I asked this hypothetical to see how much it weighs on someones opinion.

[mullyred94]

There's a reason he's starting & finishing the season on the bench. No matter how many Xg charts and diagrams people try to brainwash you with, he's been a disappointment thus far, considering he's the club record signing.

He literally started the game before last.

What are you even talking about?

[istvan kozma]

He literally started the game before last.

What are you even talking about?

If Jota was fit & Gakpo was available he wouldn't of started.

[mullyred94]

If Jota was fit & Gakpo was available he wouldn't of started.

Did Jurgen tell you?

[wemmick]

if hes played the same amount of minutes were the same then yes of course - his gaol and assist return /90 is really good despite people bending over backwards to suggest it isn't .. I'd also want him studied in a lab because hitting the woodwork 9 times 2 league seasons in a row should be impossible

I have a totally different knock on Darwin this season to everyone else which is that he hasn't been available enough - what we really want is the exact same performance from him, his finishing luck to revert to the mean (which is likely) but him to not headbutt someone and to not have the injuries/niggles/slow recovery he's had this season ... our best players need to play 3000 league minutes for us to challenge

Jack, if you don't mind, perhaps you can give an opinion on my question that kicked off some of this discussion a few days ago. Do we need another generational striker, like a peak-Salah, Suarez, or Torres even (take your pick), to fill the coming void with Salah's decline sooner or later, or do you think Darwin can increase his scoring output enough to fill it? 20 to 25 goals and assists across all competitions would put Darwin in Mane territory, but Mane wasn't our primary goal scorer at our peak under Klopp. Darwin is a very good secondary goal scorer, but I'm unsure if we are asking too much for him to be the primary goal scorer without another secondary goal scorer ready to go. Jota could be our secondary goal scorer, but he is too injury prone.   

[PEG2K]

He literally started the game before last.

What are you even talking about?

He started that game because the other 2 who should have started were not available due to unfortunate circumstances. We know that and you know that. On top of that, you know what he meant by saying he's starting & finishing the season on the bench. Can you stop posting those snide one-or-two-sentence-long remarks just to nitpick other posters? It really distracts the topic.

[istvan kozma]

Did Jurgen tell you?

Nope, but it's pretty obvious when you see how he's performed during the last few weeks.

[mullyred94]

He started that game because the other 2 who should have started were not available due to unfortunate circumstances. We know that and you know that. On top of that, you know what he meant by saying he's starting & finishing the season on the bench. Can you stop posting those snide one-or-two-sentence-long remarks just to nitpick other posters? It really distracts the topic.

Does it? I asked you a question and apparently when people refuse to reply to your stats but I asked you a question re the SCA you never answered me on that.

So if he starts any of the next remaining fixtures what does that mean?

Maybe I'm nitpicking because its just false.

Salah was benched after Everton after a bad performance is it the same boat now?

[Jookie]

I agree with most of that, apologies thought you were suggesting that he should have been singled out.

No worries.

Defo don’t think he should be singled out. Think the best thing for Nunez would be to be in the bench the next few weeks.

Let everyone decompress once the season has finished and come back refreshed and with a clean(er) slate to hit 2024/25.

[JackWard33]

Huh? I'm not arguing. I asked that question to gauge how much he values the underlying numbers that Nunez is showing. I asked the question to see whether actual numbers would question the underlying numbers, and over how much time. Which is the issue here. Some people are already fed up he hasn't lived to his promise. Some think his promise will be fulfilled. At what point do you decide enough and move on? For me I would be happy to see him next season but also indifferent if he leaves now. The underlying numbers are impressive but not enough for me. 

Jack seems comfortable with an average of (hypothetically) 10 goals a season over 3(!) seasons, enough to want him to start a 4th Season as our number 9. We differ in that regard but I asked this hypothetical to see how much it weighs on someones opinion.

It's got nothing to do with underlying numbers
I literally wrote - if he plays the same number of minutes I'd be happy with the return because he's producing at a high rate - I do, however, want him to be more available .. you've turned this into 'per season' (and he's scored 18 goals this season btw) - that's why dilks posted what he did, you either didn't read or deliberately misconstrued my post

[JackWard33]

Jack, if you don't mind, perhaps you can give an opinion on my question that kicked off some of this discussion a few days ago. Do we need another generational striker, like a peak-Salah, Suarez, or Torres even (take your pick), to fill the coming void with Salah's decline sooner or later, or do you think Darwin can increase his scoring output enough to fill it? 20 to 25 goals and assists across all competitions would put Darwin in Mane territory, but Mane wasn't our primary goal scorer at our peak under Klopp. Darwin is a very good secondary goal scorer, but I'm unsure if we are asking too much for him to be the primary goal scorer without another secondary goal scorer ready to go. Jota could be our secondary goal scorer, but he is too injury prone.   

He's got to play more minutes to be our primary goal scorer .. but bare in mind he's at 18 non penalty goals in all comps with low minutes and horrible finishing variance so 20-25 seems pretty easily achievable

As to what we need overall - replacing Salah's output is really tough but he produced it this season so there's no immediate need.
When neither of them or Jota play we've got an issue with amount of shots/xg from the front line but this should be a super rare thing to have to deal with

(oh and imporving our defensive level is more important than our attacking level for next season)

[PEG2K]

Does it? I asked you a question and apparently when people refuse to reply to your stats but I asked you a question re the SCA you never answered me on that.

So if he starts any of the next remaining fixtures what does that mean?

Maybe I'm nitpicking because its just false.

Salah was benched after Everton after a bad performance is it the same boat now?

I will get to your questions later because the post count in this thread is jumping like crazy.

But as a general remark, the way you act in this thread is very unintelligent. You just throw a sentence or two out there in every post, sometimes with one or two isolated stats that explains nothing because you either don't understand them or don't have a point.

Like the way I presented my argument earlier with multiple points and many stats, and you really think by throwing one stats out there with no further elaboration, you can disprove mine? Look at someone like Al who can elaborate his ideas with stats to back up (even though the methodology can be flawed or he's cherry picking stuff), in long and concrete posts.

[Mr Dilkington]

He's got to play more minutes to be our primary goal scorer .. but bare in mind he's at 18 non penalty goals in all comps with low minutes and horrible finishing variance so 20-25 seems pretty easily achievable

As to what we need overall - replacing Salah's output is really tough but he produced it this season so there's no immediate need.
When neither of them or Jota play we've got an issue with amount of shots/xg from the front line but this should be a super rare thing to have to deal with

I think of signing attackers in the same way as I think about teams adding receiving weapons in the NFL. Basically you can never have enough of them so just keep adding them at every opportunity.

[istvan kozma]

He's got to play more minutes to be our primary goal scorer .. but bare in mind he's at 18 non penalty goals in all comps with low minutes and horrible finishing variance so 20-25 seems pretty easily achievable

As to what we need overall - replacing Salah's output is really tough but he produced it this season so there's no immediate need.
When neither of them or Jota play we've got an issue with amount of shots/xg from the front line but this should be a super rare thing to have to deal with

He scored a penalty against LASK. That's what happens when you either go to or watch every game, you don't rely on stats to evaluate everything, the eye in the sky doesn't lie.

[JackWard33]

I think of signing attackers in the same way as I think about teams adding receiving weapons in the NFL. Basically you can never have enough of them so just keep adding them at every opportunity.

Yeah Im in on this.. as my yearly summer transfer thread posts will prove

[JackWard33]

He scored a penalty against LASK. That's what happens when you either go to or watch every game, you don't rely on stats to evaluate everything, the eye in the sky doesn't lie.

you okay hun?

[mullyred94]

I will get to your questions later because the post count in this thread is jumping like crazy.

But as a general remark, the way you act in this thread is very unintelligent. You just throw a sentence or two out there in every post, sometimes with one or two isolated stats that explains nothing because you either don't understand them or don't have a point.

Like the way I presented my argument earlier with multiple points and many stats, and you really think by throwing one stats out there with no further elaboration, you can disprove mine? Look at someone like Al who can elaborate his ideas with stats to back up (even though the methodology can be flawed or he's cherry picking stuff), in long and concrete posts.

I asked you a simple question, in that time you wrote those 2 paragraphs you could have easily answered my questions.

The answer is despite all the running around, dribbling, and waving the crowd to get them hyped up he is not effective enough.

I asked you why it didn't equate to a higher xA, like you are claiming to be if you are more intelligent you can explain it to me.

[istvan kozma]

I asked you a simple question, in that time you wrote those 2 paragraphs you could have easily answered my questions.

The answer is despite all the running around, dribbling, and waving the crowd to get them hyped up he is not effective enough.

I asked you why it didn't equate to a higher xA, like you are claiming to be if you are more intelligent you can explain it to me.

You guys are now inventing different statistical measurements to defend his under performances.

[mullyred94]

You guys are now inventing different statistical measurements to defend his under performances.

Its expected assists, just like with expected goals.

[PEG2K]

I asked you a simple question, in that time you wrote those 2 paragraphs you could have easily answered my questions.

The answer is despite all the running around, dribbling, and waving the crowd to get them hyped up he is not effective enough.

I asked you why it didn't equate to a higher xA, like you are claiming to be if you are more intelligent you can explain it to me.

What did I write about Diaz aside from him not having the end products he should have had, similar to you just said? When did I say the part in bold lol?

Literally just wrote Diaz is Mane without the end products in the post replying to yours lol.

[PaleBlueDot]

It's got nothing to do with underlying numbers
I literally wrote - if he plays the same number of minutes I'd be happy with the return because he's producing at a high rate - I do, however, want him to be more available .. you've turned this into 'per season' (and he's scored 18 goals this season btw) - that's why dilks posted what he did, you either didn't read or deliberately misconstrued my post

So you'd give another season (25/26) based on his actual numbers and not underlying? So you're happy with 18 goals, 11 in the prem? That was my question. Yes with the same minutes played.

Maybe the misunderstanding was that I literally assumed you wouldn't be happy with these numbers alone but with those + the same promising underlying numbers together. Now you tell me its nothing to do with them. Fine.

You consider it a high rate of return. Others would consider it not good enough. I was merely trying to understand where you stood and why.

[mullyred94]

What did I write about Diaz aside from him not having the end products he should have had, similar to you just said? When did I say the part in bold lol?

By saying I don't understand stats that I post you're clearly insinuating that you understand them more than me correct ?

That's how I took it mate.

[istvan kozma]

Its expected assists, just like with expected goals.

Seriously? now you're reaching. You're using expected assists to defend an £85m under performing striker. You really are 'Darwin Nunez love child' I commend your commitment to Darwin, but it's getting ridiculous.

[PEG2K]

By saying I don't understand stats that I post you're clearly insinuating that you understand them more than me correct ?

That's how I took it mate.

That is 100% correct.

Whatever you said about what I said about Diaz is not.

Just wait and I'll get back to your earlier question re his SCA and xA not "matching".

[LiamG]

The reason he is likely to be better next season is that he will be a year nearer his physical peak. He will have more experience, will have matured and will have had another season coaching under his belt. He has already improved his overall game and if you look at his performances for Uruguay there is plenty to come.

As I said earlier in an ideal world you sign a 27 year old Nunez or a 27 year old Van Persie. However that is far more expensive in terms of wages and fees and isn't the way the club is operated because if it doesn't work out then you end up losing huge sums of money.

For me Nunez deserves a season under Slot.

For what its worth at the same age (24) Van Persie scored 11 goals (0.45/90min) and the season isn't over yet for Nunez to do better than that

Solanke at the same age had only scored 6 in this league (0.19/90min) And look how well he's done this season 

[PEG2K]

If Diaz shot creating action so great why is his xA only 5 and GCA 9 which are both lower than Darwins?

On the Bobby comment, no where near the Technical player is Darwin but why was Bobby's assist's so loved yet it's being totally disregarded in terms of what a 9 can offer?

Isn't it about creating goals for a forward where he scores it or creates a goal what does it honestly matter as long as the team scores?

Why didn't Gakpo play the majority of the league games until recently then since his a similar mold to Bobby?

Now get back to your question. Let's take a look at the detailed attacking stats of the two players.

Diaz leads Nunez in the following categories:

	Diaz	Nunez	Diaz per90	Nunez per90
Key passes	56	33	2.09	1.49
Passes into final third	60	21	2.24	0.95
Passes into pen area	42	26	1.57	1.17
Progressive passess	109	53	4.07	2.39
Take-ons	128	43	4.78	1.94
Progressive carries	123	55	4.59	2.48
Carries into final third	69	34	2.57	1.53
Carries into pen area	62	34	2.31	1.53
Shot creating actions	150	79	5.6	3.56

And Nunez leads Diaz in these:

	Diaz	Nunez	Diaz per90	Nunez per90
Assists	5	8	0.19	0.36
xA	4.4	4.4	0.16	0.2
xAG	5.1	6	0.19	0.27
GCA	9	14	0.34	0.63

You can clearly see Diaz is far ahead of Nunez in every attacking metric related to chance creation, but Nunez is ahead in the end products (A, GCA) yet his xA/xAG is only slightly ahead. Yet a player can only control his chance creation and xA stats. The actual products also depend on the finishers. So maybe Diaz having high SCA but low GCA is a case of the shooters not converting his SCAs? Hmm, so who among our finishers wasted the most chances?

Besides, if you look at the sample sizes of the stats in the first table and the second, you can clearly see the ones in second are more subject to variations. In other words, if Diaz gets 2 assists in the next games, they'd look pretty even. But it would take a long time for Nunez to match Diaz's numbers in the first table.

There also may be a couple of reasons to explain this mismatch. One could be that SCA and GCA are not necessarily always correlated. Look no further than Diaz's numbers in his two previous seasons for us. In his first season, his SCA and GCA are almost identical to this season. But in his second one, his SCA is much lower yet his GCA is almost twice higher than those of this season - which is what's happening to Nunez now.

[collytum]

Some people living in denial, Nunez is not good enough for Liverpool, throw out all the statistics around xg all you want but a decent quality striker playing for us this season would have at least 20 goals. Some of his misses too are just unbelievable. Two full seasons with us and he doesn't look any better which suggests this is his level. He has had one season in his last 5 where he could possibly be considered elite, other than that, the only noteworthy things are his glaring misses. But oh yeah I forgot, he offers 'chaos' ......give me a decent footballer any day.

[Garlic Red]

Rumours on The Athletic today that Arsenal are open to offers for Gabriel Jesus. That’s the top two sides in the PL giving up on him despite pretty outrageous xG numbers but consistent underperformance.

I still think Darwin can turn it around and improve his finishing, the margins are so small with a lot of them, but there’s only so long you can underperform at the level he has. I think we give Slot one more year to try and settle him down in front of goal.

[spider-neil]

I think he'll get another season. I don't see another club coming in with an offer we'd accept. Also, I think Slot will view the gaps in Nunez's game as small enough to bridge.

[Knight]

Rumours on The Athletic today that Arsenal are open to offers for Gabriel Jesus. That’s the top two sides in the PL giving up on him despite pretty outrageous xG numbers but consistent underperformance.

I still think Darwin can turn it around and improve his finishing, the margins are so small with a lot of them, but there’s only so long you can underperform at the level he has. I think we give Slot one more year to try and settle him down in front of goal.

His p90 stats over the last year paint a different picture. He's not got outrageous xG numbers. In reality they're pretty poor. He's undershot his non pen xG from 17/18 to now by about 8 or so (may be a little more or less) but is that really the reason they're giving up on him? Or are they giving up on him because in the last year Jesus, playing for Arsenal, has a non pen xG of 0.51 (which is in the 51st percentile for forwards - whilst playing for Arsenal).

[spider-neil]

His p90 stats over the last year paint a different picture. He's not got outrageous xG numbers. In reality they're pretty poor. He's undershot his non pen xG from 17/18 to now by about 8 or so (may be a little more or less) but is that really the reason they're giving up on him? Or are they giving up on him because in the last year Jesus, playing for Arsenal, has a non pen xG of 0.51 (which is in the 51st percentile for forwards - whilst playing for Arsenal).

The striker is the obvious position for Arsenal to improve.

For us, I don't think it's clear cut. I think Nunez's metrics are superb both in terms of physicality (his speed, strength and pressing) and his chance creation but it's clear he isn't clinical enough.
If Slot wants a different type of forward then fair enough but I think Slot can fix the lacking areas of Nunez's game and turn him into a monster.

[Garlic Red]

His p90 stats over the last year paint a different picture. He's not got outrageous xG numbers. In reality they're pretty poor. He's undershot his non pen xG from 17/18 to now by about 8 or so (may be a little more or less) but is that really the reason they're giving up on him? Or are they giving up on him because in the last year Jesus, playing for Arsenal, has a non pen xG of 0.51 (which is in the 51st percentile for forwards - whilst playing for Arsenal).

His club league career npxG/xA per 90 numbers are very good. His underlying numbers are consistently good but he has never been able to finish chances consistently. He hasn’t regressed as a player, watching him play he’s not gone backwards despite the dip in numbers, I’d argue the dip in numbers are due to Arsenal playing a slightly more conservative style to control games more.

I’m a huge Darwin fan and I’m desperate for him to come good in front of goal. The margins are so small but there isn’t an infinite timeline you can put on stuff like that. He could be the most dangerous forward in the world - and because of that you have to give him another year - but my point regarding Jesus was: the big clubs won’t wait forever. Pep got rid of him due to wastefulness, Arteta will probably do the same as he seems set on Havertz and looks to be recruiting another forward this year. We can talk about variance etc but they need to start flying in at some point, otherwise he’ll end up another Morata playing for a variety of clubs because he can’t be trusted to decide games for the very best.

[jepovic]

I think he'll get another season. I don't see another club coming in with an offer we'd accept. Also, I think Slot will view the gaps in Nunez's game as small enough to bridge.

Yeah, I agree. I think he's less likely to leave than Salah or Diaz
Also, there are a lot of promising wingers on the market, but I dont see so many good and attainable strikers.
Jesus is a very different type, more like Bobby.

[Kansti]

Can we have an xG, xA, BCM comparison when Darwin had short hair vs his current man bun. Tryna see a trend here.

[Cpt_Reina]

Just clocked Benfica finished 3rd for both of his 2 seasons there, then immediately won the league once he departed.

In fact, the only trophy he's won in Europe is the league cup final he didn't play.

Makes u think...

[Mr Dilkington]

Just clocked the bookies have Alexander Isak (on pens) at 46% to score v Burnley this weekend and Darwin at 48% to score v Spurs.

The bookies have lost the plot!

[rob1966]

Just clocked Benfica finished 3rd for both of his 2 seasons there, then immediately won the league once he departed.

In fact, the only trophy he's won in Europe is the league cup final he didn't play.

Makes u think...

Michael Owen went to Real to win the CL and we won it that same season

[Cpt_Reina]

Michael Owen went to Real to win the CL and we won it that same season

Indeed.

Just looking at that data and trying cut through the noise, the teams that Darwin plays in not winning trophies is a worrying trend.

[Mr Dilkington]

Indeed.

Just looking at that data and trying cut through the noise, the teams that Darwin plays in not winning trophies is a worrying trend.

At least make the trolling a little more subtle mate!

[PhilV]

Just clocked Benfica finished 3rd for both of his 2 seasons there, then immediately won the league once he departed.

In fact, the only trophy he's won in Europe is the league cup final he didn't play.

Makes u think...

Not sure if posts like this are serious or not...nvm obvious troll