Topic: Predictions: Top 4

[disgraced cake]

April is a disgusting month, could make or break our season

Shame how it's a far cry from last April. We had about 10 matches, all of them fucking huge, two semi finals and must win league games. Going into it people were shitting themselves and we pissed through the entire month. Seems so far away  :'(

[Ravishing Rick Dude]

Before Palace I felt quite confident we could get 4th. Us drawing and Spurs winning is a bit of a blow as didn’t think we’d lose ground to them this weekend.

Maybe them getting past Milan and getting a big CL QF to distract them would help us.

Yeah, i think the Real Madrid game came at the wrong time. Just when we started gathering some pace and confidence, they bitch-slapped our conference.

[Jookie]

Before Palace I felt quite confident we could get 4th. Us drawing and Spurs winning is a bit of a blow as didn’t think we’d lose ground to them this weekend.

Maybe them getting past Milan and getting a big CL QF to distract them would help us.

I think the real question is whether you think we can get to 65 points minimum. Probably need closer to 70 though. Unlikely you need much more than 70 based on this season so far and other seasons.

We've got 36 points from 23 games. I'm normally optimistic but we'd need a serious upturn in form and consistency to get to close to 70 points. Our current ppg over 23 games, would put us on 59 points for the season. Need to get 10 points over that average in the final 15 games.

In essence we probably need 32 points from 15 games to have a chance. That would be W10 D2 L3 out of the last 15 games. Realistically I think we probably need to get the bulk of those points in the 8 home games (20 as an absolute minimum) since our away form is so poor.

[DelTrotter]

Win both these home games this week and it looks a decent chance. I think even 4 points while not exactly horrible would be a bit of a let down, to overtake these teams we've gotta start winning games to get in a position to do it. Could spin 4 points as 5 unbeaten but it'd also be 1 win in 3 at a time we need wins to catch those above us.

Also need to rack up some points as that week of City away, Chelsea away and Arsenal home gives me the absolute fear, even with the current state of Chelsea. We own Arsenal at Anfield but christ knows what state we'll be in injury wise after a week of that intensity.

Realistically we've been woeful all season and there's little sign we can get the points required but hopefully this squad can come up big one final time. I'd be well happy with a Europa place too though would obviously prefer CL.

[Bobsackamano]

All we really need to do is finish in front of Spurs. That sentence alone should be cause for optimism.

The last 8 games we have are as easy as you could wish for, as long as we stay on the coat tails of Spurs we'll be ok. No cup competitions, players coming back, Newcastle returning to their natural level, Chelsea sunk already.

[The G in Gerrard]

Win Sunday and we are 7 points behind 3rd

[Ravishing Rick Dude]

It's on!!

[DelTrotter]

With Fulham postponed our next 5 looks pretty grim, the top 3 and their referees, Bournemouth away ok gotta win that and Chelsea away, they always game raise v us. On the plus side, our final 9 games are massively kind for a run in so if we can stay only a bit behind after this tough streak we'll be extremely well placed.

But then who knows, we've won at Newcastle, Tottenham, dominated City at home for 90mins but lost to Leeds, Forest, Brentford and wouldn't have scored v Palace in 2 days so I dunno anymore 

If we get 9 or more from the next 5 I reckon we'll do it pretty comfortably.

[farawayred]

It's on!!

3rd place finish

[MonsLibpool]

It's on!!

But it wasn't off after we drew against Palace. We just need to take it game by game.

[PeterTheRed ...]

It's on!!

It was never off, with 42 points still in play ...

[ScouserAtHeart]

FiveThirtyEight predict an outside chance of 25 per cent for Liverpool to finish in the top four. They went on a late charge two seasons ago to secure Champions League qualification after a similarly difficult campaign. Surely they can’t do it again?

https://archive.ph/JU1xb

[Solomon Grundy]

https://archive.ph/JU1xb

We've a better chance of finishing top 4 than Newcastle, that's for sure.

[CraigDS]

I assume that's worked out giving most emphasis to recent form? So wouldn't take into account returning players / an uptick in form?

[ScouserAtHeart]

I assume that's worked out giving most emphasis to recent form? So wouldn't take into account returning players / an uptick in form?

And remaining fixtures. We have a pretty bad stretch on paper at least. United and Arsenal at home and City and Chelsea away in our next 5

[rocco]

Spurs fixtures v ours has put a damper on it .

[Crosby Nick]

Spurs fixtures v ours has put a damper on it .

Spurs aren’t great though. They won’t roll many sides over. Everything seems a struggle with them.

And if our tough stretch goes badly we know we have Spurs at home to come. Might end up being must win for us to reel them back a bit but at least we have that to hold on to.

[LovelyCushionedHeader]

Spurs fixtures v ours has put a damper on it .

They've got us and Newcastle away? Plus a host of other tricky away games given that they've lost their last 4. They're the kind of team that you could easily see showing up at Goodison and losing as one example.

United and Brighton at home too which are difficult. They will drop a shit ton of points between now and the end of the season.

[PeterTheRed ...]

Spurs fixtures v ours has put a damper on it .

It is Tottenham. They are not exactly great. And Newcastle have 1 win in their last 8 league games. We are on course to finish in the top 4, if we continue with our recent league form ...

[The North Bank]

Momentum is key , if you win today you’ll be heavily odds on for 4th. Newcastle have collapsed and Spurs only strong at home.
It would be a huge turn around given how far back you were, to end up back in CL . Got a feeling Brighton might be your biggest rivals for it still.

[ScubaSteve]

If we win today, it’ll be the first time I’ll start believing. We’ve been beaten by so many poor teams this season that we’ve become reliant on getting results against the better sides

[rocco]

It is Tottenham. They are not exactly great. And Newcastle have 1 win in their last 8 league games. We are on course to finish in the top 4, if we continue with our recent league form ...

Spurs turning Milan over on Wednesday might suit us than have them just concentrating on top 4

[PeterTheRed ...]

Spurs turning Milan over on Wednesday might suit us than have them just concentrating on top 4

Probably, but they are not exactly a mentally strong team, so losing to AC Milan on Wednesday might also see them fall apart ...

[killer-heels]

Probably, but they are not exactly a mentally strong team, so losing to AC Milan on Wednesday might also see them fall apart ...

Mentally they are not that bad. They know their level, we don’t. They have lost a lot of games and played shite in many but they are able to shrug it off and get a result in subsequent games. That’s one area we have massively struggled to the point even conceding one goal can throw us.

[MonsLibpool]

Spurs fixtures v ours has put a damper on it .

Spurs are Spurs.

[MonsLibpool]

https://archive.ph/JU1xb

United are a really average side.

[PeterTheRed ...]

Mentally they are not that bad. They know their level, we don’t. They have lost a lot of games and played shite in many but they are able to shrug it off and get a result in subsequent games. That’s one area we have massively struggled to the point even conceding one goal can throw us.

We are talking about Tottenham, the club that haven't won anything in ages, despite having some very good teams. Of course they are mentally weak ...

[killer-heels]

We are talking about Tottenham, the club that haven't won anything in ages, despite having some very good teams. Of course they are mentally weak ...

Yes, but we are not talking about winning anything but coming 4th.

[PeterTheRed ...]

Yes, but we are not talking about winning anything but coming 4th.

For Tottenham, finishing 4th is a trophy ...

[farawayred]

For Tottenham, finishing 4th is a trophy ...

Hey, don't put down the CL Participation Trophy!

[The G in Gerrard]

7 behind 3rd

[mikeb58]

7 behind 3rd

Imagine only coming one place lower than we did last season!

4th place is definately on (always has been in my opinion) but who knows, if we go on a mad run, 3rd place is by no means out of the question too.

[farawayred]

We will finish 3rd, its a fact (per Mac Red definition).

[jillcwhomever]

I would love to take their third place, I have to say. After this season it would be so funny.

[PeterTheRed ...]

We will finish 3rd, its a fact (per Mac Red definition).

Yeah, finishing 3rd would be OK ...

[deano2727]

We could really do with Spurs dropping points in their next fixtures, even if it means the Bitters beating them and  staying up.we’ve got tricky fixtures coming up. I see us losing to City, drawing with Chelsea and beating Arsenal. Not the best points total from 3 fixtures, so we really need spurs to drop points somewhere, wherever it is. They’ve got relegation fodder in their next 3. If we can get to mid April within 5 points of them, we can have hope.

[PeterTheRed ...]

We could really do with Spurs dropping points in their next fixtures, even if it means the Bitters beating them and  staying up.we’ve got tricky fixtures coming up. I see us losing to City, drawing with Chelsea and beating Arsenal. Not the best points total from 3 fixtures, so we really need spurs to drop points somewhere, wherever it is. They’ve got relegation fodder in their next 3. If we can get to mid April within 5 points of them, we can have hope.

It is Tottenham. They will drop a lot of points ...

[Jookie]

We should just try and beat Bournemouth and take it from there.

We have a 3 week gap between Bournemouth and our next game. Fulham game off (FA Cup) and then an international break.

A 12:30pm KO against City away isn't ideal in terms of coming off the back of an international break. Followed by Chelsea (a) midweek and Arsenal at home the next weekend. That week could be absolutely crucial.

In the same period Spurs play Forest (h), Southampton (a, Everton (a) and Brighton (h).

Newcastle have Forest (a), United (h), WHU (a), Brentford (a).

Be interesting to see the table at that point. Only 8 to 9 games to go at that point and we probably want to be within 5 points of 4th as a worst case scenario.

[El Lobo]

People are aware that not only did Spurs get battered by Leicester a few games ago, but lost to Wolves at the weekend...?

[PeterTheRed ...]

We should just try and beat Bournemouth and take it from there.

We have a 3 week gap between Bournemouth and our next game. Fulham game off (FA Cup) and then an international break.

A 12:30pm KO against City away isn't ideal in terms of coming off the back of an international break. Followed by Chelsea (a) midweek and Arsenal at home the next weekend. That week could be absolutely crucial.

In the same period Spurs play Forest (h), Southampton (a, Everton (a) and Brighton (h).

Newcastle have Forest (a), United (h), WHU (a), Brentford (a).

Be interesting to see the table at that point. Only 8 to 9 games to go at that point and we probably want to be within 5 points of 4th as a worst case scenario.

Well, the good news is that we will have Diaz and Thiago back after the international break. Also, our South Americans will only play friendlies over the break, if they are even called up ...