Topic: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)

[JackWard33]

Do people realise per 90 with non pen goals he averages more than Mo at the moment?

Hasn't Mo missed 3-4 this season?

Yes but everyone also hates him now.. keep up

[Knight]

I'm largely keeping out of this thread because so much of it is ridiculous but I had to say: only Knight could somehow try to spin missing a penalty into a positive of some kind.

Oh come on Magnetism. You’re a good poster but did you really need me to make clear that missing penalties isn’t good? It’s just that penalty stats skew goalscoring stats which is why they get separated and showing both is useful.

[Mr Dilkington]

Nunez has missed one penalty in his career to Isak's 3.

Maybe Darwin can give poor Alex some lessons on composure over the summer.

These numbers are wrong, my bad.

Isak has in fact missed 4 penalties to Darwin's 1.

How strange. Dead eyed killer v chaotic clown.

Makes u think.

[Knight]

These numbers are wrong, my bad.

Isak has in fact missed 4 penalties to Darwin's 1.

How strange. Dead eyed killer v chaotic clown.

Makes u think.

It won’t though will it. Recency bias rules the day.

[mullyred94]

I don't think hitting a penalty off target is a mitigating factor in being way below your xG. Do you? Last time I looked, penalties were meant to be relatively easy to score.

You literally are just taking the numbers he posted and making up your own agenda.

The point is even with a missed penalty his only underperforming by 4 with the penalty basically 25% of that xG.

The reason he brought up that point it is more accutrate then just saying " his missed the most biggest chances in europe "

Haaland has too and Mo has missed alot too.

They both are under their XG also.

[Mr Dilkington]

It won’t though will it. Recency bias rules the day.

Wait, you mean to say basing decisions that will impact the club for the next 5 years shouldn't be taken based on what's happened in the last 6 weeks?

[Sheer Magnetism]

Oh come on Magnetism. You’re a good poster but did you really need me to make clear that missing penalties isn’t good? It’s just that penalty stats skew goalscoring stats which is why they get separated and showing both is useful.

Yes, but they generally skew stats in the other direction. That's why I thought it was bizarre it was being brought up as a mitigating factor.

Anyway, I told myself I'd stop posting in this thread until something meaningful changed and so I'm going to go back to that.

[Knight]

Yes, but they generally skew stats in the other direction. That's why I thought it was bizarre it was being brought up as a mitigating factor.

Anyway, I told myself I'd stop posting in this thread until something meaningful changed and so I'm going to go back to that.

It was intended to be clarifying about what has actually happened rather than a mitigating factor about his goalscoring. You took it in the least charitable way possible.

[PaleBlueDot]

Players do not control which finishes go in and which dont

Can you elaborate on this? I'm genuinely curious. Is this because there are other factors like goalkeepers etc?

I can't really get my head round it. How can a striker not ensure his strike is a goal? Seems pretty obvious.

[Eeyore]

The opinions around Nunez really are wild. After last season the consensus was that he needed to aim for the corners more. He does that and hits the woodwork as often as a blacksmith hits his anvil. The opinion then becomes well hitting the post or crossbar aren't unlucky. They are the frame of the goal and don't move. What he needs to do is hit the target more often. He hits the target more often and keepers make miraculous saves and we get suggestions like he should chip the keeper.

He produces one of the all-time great chips against Brentford. Guess what that was wrong as well. No wonder the lad looks confused as fuck. The general consensus after the Atalanta, Palace and Everton games was that nothing good comes from just getting your shot on target. That is games in which all three teams took the lead against us with straight shots pretty much at the keeper.

In the latest run Scamacca has a shot squirm through Kelleher, Branthwaite has a shot squirm under Ali and Jota has a shot that squirms through Leno. Even the third goal against Atalanta comes about from Kelleher parrying a shot straight to their player. When has Nunez had shots squirm through keepers or drop at his feet. The West Ham games sums it up nicely.

Nunez is about to tap home a sitter and a West Ham player comes from nowhere to make a miraculous clearance. Taylor then gives a goal kick. He is clear on a counter attack and Salah plays the ball about ten yards behind him.

Then we get to his general play. Apparently its awful according to our Jekyll and Hyde posters. Yet the same posters claim we are toothless and lack pace when he doesn't play. The posters on here when presented with his G+A output then shift to well apart from goaland assists he does nothing. Strangely the people who go the game love the lad's incredible work rate and never say attitude. Probably best epitomised by Sheff United away were he tracks back goes to ground wins a slide tackle gets up and probably plays the ball of the season to Szobozslai. He does nothing and has no technique but pulls that off.

I think what we need is RAWK's ideal replacement.

He will need to be able to run the 100m in under 10 seconds. Must be able to hit every shot into the corners without hitting the woodwork. If he does then he should be able to switch to hitting the target but without the keeper ever saving it. He must be one of the most clinical finishers ever but also able to dribble like Messi, pass like Alonso have the all-around game of Firmino and be mature before his years.

A couple of hundred games before he is 22 and be available on reasonable wages.

[Eeyore]

Can you elaborate on this? I'm genuinely curious. Is this because there are other factors like goalkeepers etc?

I can't really get my head round it. How can a striker not ensure his strike is a goal? Seems pretty obvious.

A striker can hit his shot perfectly right in the corner with loads of pace. A keeper or defender can gamble go the right way and save it or in the case of a defender get a block in. I mean look how good Ali is on 1v1's. Players can do everything right but an elite keeper can still come out on top. Top efforts get saved poor strikes go in.

Haaland is a freak but has missed 30 big chances in 2214 League minutes this season.

[spider-neil]

There is no argument that Nunez misses big chances and at crucial moments of the game. The argument (for me at least) is do you persevere and coach him to finish better or move him on for someone who right now is finishing better for their current club. And for me personally, I would coach him because he has a lot of qualities you genuinely can't coach rather than things people think you can't coach.

[Bennett]

Wait, you mean to say basing decisions that will impact the club for the next 5 years shouldn't be taken based on what's happened in the last 6 weeks?

How about the last 2 seasons?

[Eeyore]

There is no argument that Nunez misses big chances and at crucial moments of the game. The argument (for me at least) is do you persevere and coach him to finish better or move him on for someone who right now is finishing better for their current  club. And for me personally, I would coach him because he has a lot of qualities you genuinely can't coach rather things people think you can't coach.

It doesn't even have to be coaching though. Strikers tend to become calmer as they mature. I remember Wenger talking about how Van Persie became much more assured as he become older because he realised he had more time. Van Persie was at Arsenal for 8 seasons and scored 96 League goals. Half of them came in his last two seasons when he got 18 and 30. He then went to United and scored 26 in his first season.

That upturn in his goalscoring rate came when he reached his peak at around 27-28.

Ideally, that is when you would buy your strikers. The issue would be huge fees, huge wages, and no sell-on value. 

[markmywords]

There is no argument that Nunez misses big chances and at crucial moments of the game. The argument (for me at least) is do you persevere and coach him to finish better or move him on for someone who right now is finishing better for their current  club. And for me personally, I would coach him because he has a lot of qualities you genuinely can't coach rather things people think you can't coach.

I think it is a bit of an insult to say to the coaches, we haven't been coaching him in the last 2 yrs.  Now you didn't directly say that, but if we have been coaching him, you then have to explain why he would suddenly be better next yr and not in 3 or 4 yrs or not at all

[Eeyore]

How about the last 2 seasons?

Over the last two seasons would you say we look better with him in the team or without?

For me, it is the former. The other thing is who would you bring in to replace him? and what guarantees would you have that he would hit the ground running?

[markmywords]

It doesn't even have to be coaching though. Strikers tend to become calmer as they mature. I remember Wenger talking about how Van Persie became much more assured as he become older because he realised he had more time. Van Persie was at Arsenal for 8 seasons and scored 96 League goals. Half of them came in his last two seasons when he got 18 and 30. He then went to United and scored 26 in his first season.

That upturn in his goalscoring rate came when he reached his peak at around 27-28.

Ideally, that is when you would buy your strikers. The issue would be huge fees, huge wages, and no sell-on value. 

Van persie was largely injured until he turned 27, that is when his contribution improved.  All your examples are flawed, YOu won't find a top club that had striker as a spearhead (like Nunez who has more shots than anyone) that struggles infront of goal for 2 full seasons, stays in the team , during his mid 20's, who suddenly becomes a prolific goalscorer from their 3rd season onwards

[mullyred94]

I think it is a bit of an insult to say to the coaches, we haven't been coaching him in the last 2 yrs.  Now you didn't directly say that, but if we have been coaching him, you then have to explain why he would suddenly be better next yr and not in 3 or 4 yrs or not at all

The thing is though that he has improved in areas of his play from his debut up until now.

His impact on goals/assist increased this season.

He was involved in 12 last season now his involved in 19 with 3 games left.

[Mr Dilkington]

How about the last 2 seasons?

Yes that's better. And that's why there's zero chance we'll sell him.

[JackWard33]

Can you elaborate on this? I'm genuinely curious. Is this because there are other factors like goalkeepers etc?

I can't really get my head round it. How can a striker not ensure his strike is a goal? Seems pretty obvious.

If strikers could control which chances they scored they wouldn't be called chances they'd be called goals

[Historical Fool]

Someone said he doesn't have a cultured finish in him but he does I've seen it with my own eyes. The problem is he doesn't do it enough but I refuse to believe he can't be taught to be calmer in front of the goal especially for someone who generates so many chances.

However, I do think it was telling that Joyce and Ornstein probably two of the journos out there both said Nunez is a Klopp signing and not a committee signing. That to me sounds like they were briefed to absolve the data team and maybe they are willing to offload him for the right price.

I’ll go back to what Owen said after one match - Darwin is frustrating to an observer because he is capable of doing extraordinarily difficult things, but has an unfortunate tendency to fluff the basics. And rightly or wrongly both stick out and it leads to recency bias / corruption.

[Eeyore]

Van persie was largely injured until he turned 27, that is when his contribution improved.  All your examples are flawed, YOu won't find a top club that had striker as a spearhead (like Nunez who has more shots than anyone) that struggles infront of goal for 2 full seasons, stays in the team , during his mid 20's, who suddenly becomes a prolific goalscorer from their 3rd season onwards

That simply isn't true in his first two seasons at Arsenal at around the same age as Nunez's first two seasons here he played 41 and 38 games in all comps. He scored 10 and 11 in those two seasons.

It was a similar story he was brought in to replace an iconic false 9 in Bergkamp. He was a converted left-sided attacker. He struggled initially because of an abundance of attacking talent at the club. He came into his own when a goalscoring wide attacker in Henry was sold and he became the main man. 

[Eeyore]

I’ll go back to what Owen said after one match - Darwin is frustrating to an observer because he is capable of doing extraordinarily difficult things, but has an unfortunate tendency to fluff the basics. And rightly or wrongly both stick out and it leads to recency bias / corruption.

So something that is perfectly normal for young attackers?

[Fiasco]

Someone said he doesn't have a cultured finish in him but he does I've seen it with my own eyes. The problem is he doesn't do it enough but I refuse to believe he can't be taught to be calmer in front of the goal especially for someone who generates so many chances.

However, I do think it was telling that Joyce and Ornstein probably two of the journos out there both said Nunez is a Klopp signing and not a committee signing. That to me sounds like they were briefed to absolve the data team and maybe they are willing to offload him for the right price.

I think my point was that any professional footballer is clearly capable of a cultured finish or a worldie, even at much lower levels you see great finishes or wonder goals. The problem clearly with Darwin is that his finishing is erratic, not consistent and sometimes laughable. You say you refuse to believe he can't be taught to be calmer in front of goal and I agree to an extent but he isn't 18, he's 25 in the summer. People keep comparing him to how Mane improved or how Suarez improved over time and I think those comparisons are pointless. Yet if you want to do that compare him to Fowler or Owen, they didn't have to wait until a certain age to be good finishers, they were natural born killers in front of goal.

Put a Fowler or Owen in this team over the past year and we're almost certainly champions. That is the difference.

[Historical Fool]

So something that is perfectly normal for young attackers?

Yes. And nothing that will justify selling him at all especially considering his output and projected output is nothing short of elite.

[Eeyore]

I think my point was that any professional footballer is clearly capable of a cultured finish or a worldie, even at much lower levels you see great finishes or wonder goals. The problem clearly with Darwin is that his finishing is erratic, not consistent and sometimes laughable. You say you refuse to believe he can't be taught to be calmer in front of goal and I agree to an extent but he isn't 18, he's 25 in the summer. People keep comparing him to how Mane improved or how Suarez improved over time and I think those comparisons are pointless. Yet if you want to do that compare him to Fowler or Owen, they didn't have to wait until a certain age to be good finishers, they were natural born killers in front of goal.

Put a Fowler or Owen in this team over the past year and we're almost certainly champions. That is the difference.

Firstly you are talking about two of the best players we have ever produced. Two players who benefitted from coming through our system, speaking the language and above all in their pomp having the entire team play for them.

Nunez has had to move to a new Country, learn a new language and he is playing in a team that is setup to maximise the opportunities Salah gets. I mean Nunez had a 100% 12 from 12 record from the spot but still wasn't on penalties.

Maybe a more apt comparison would be Owen at Madrid and Newcastle especially the language barrier at Newcastle or Fowler at Leeds.

[spider-neil]

I think it is a bit of an insult to say to the coaches, we haven't been coaching him in the last 2 yrs.  Now you didn't directly say that, but if we have been coaching him, you then have to explain why he would suddenly be better next yr and not in 3 or 4 yrs or not at all

It's not an insult because Nunez has definitely improved his all round forward play and is more of a team player now so he has been coached.

[markmywords]

That simply isn't true in his first two seasons at Arsenal at around the same age as Nunez's first two seasons here he played 41 and 38 games in all comps. He scored 10 and 11 in those two seasons.

It was a similar story he was brought in to replace an iconic false 9 in Bergkamp. He was a converted left-sided attacker. He struggled initially because of an abundance of attacking talent at the club. He came into his own when a goalscoring wide attacker in Henry was sold and he became the main man. 

You stated he became prolific in his last 2 seasons, Van persie was 27 when his penultimate season at Arsenal started and Henry had been gone for 3 yrs by that point.  Which is the point, Nunez might come good next yr, or like Van persie when he is 27 in 2 yrs time or not at all like Cisse, it's hard to come up with a good reason why next yr will be the yr, other than pure hope and wishful thinking

[spider-neil]

I think my point was that any professional footballer is clearly capable of a cultured finish or a worldie, even at much lower levels you see great finishes or wonder goals. The problem clearly with Darwin is that his finishing is erratic, not consistent and sometimes laughable. You say you refuse to believe he can't be taught to be calmer in front of goal and I agree to an extent but he isn't 18, he's 25 in the summer. People keep comparing him to how Mane improved or how Suarez improved over time and I think those comparisons are pointless. Yet if you want to do that compare him to Fowler or Owen, they didn't have to wait until a certain age to be good finishers, they were natural born killers in front of goal.

Put a Fowler or Owen in this team over the past year and we're almost certainly champions. That is the difference.

I think conceding the first goal in the majority of our games is what has stopped us being champions. Coming back to to win after going behind again and again is unsustainable regardless of who is up front. 

[PaleBlueDot]

A striker can hit his shot perfectly right in the corner with loads of pace. A keeper or defender can gamble go the right way and save it or in the case of a defender get a block in. I mean look how good Ali is on 1v1's. Players can do everything right but an elite keeper can still come out on top. Top efforts get saved poor strikes go in.

Haaland is a freak but has missed 30 big chances in 2214 League minutes this season.

Okay, just making sure it's this and not something else. You never know here.

If strikers could control which chances they scored they wouldn't be called chances they'd be called goals

No I know that. I feel like this along with your opinion of 'volume of high quality shots' being the most important is starting to make more sense.

Shot selection varies massively between strikers so whilst you cannot control which go in and which don't you can have a say on the type of finishes you choose to execute which will obviously decide who is the better finisher.

Nunez can improve and become a better finisher scoring boat loads or still smash all his shots at the keeper in the next 3 years. During those 3 years his high volume shots will always be there. So it's not the most important metric is it?

[Fiasco]

Firstly you are talking about two of the best players we have ever produced. Two players who benefitted from coming through our system, speaking the language and above all in their pomp having the entire team play for them.

Nunez has had to move to a new Country, learn a new language and he is playing in a team that is setup to maximise the opportunities Salah gets. I mean Nunez had a 100% 12 from 12 record from the spot but still wasn't on penalties.

Maybe a more apt comparison would be Owen at Madrid and Newcastle especially the language barrier at Newcastle or Fowler at Leeds.

I'm sorry but I'm not sure the language barrier or the new league/teammates argument holds any weight. Football is football, here or wherever else. And if you're 8 yards out from goal unchallenged and the goalkeeper has given you 2/3rds of the goal to aim at, you don't blast it as hard as you can hoping for the best. New country, language barrier, absolutely anything else doesn't matter there. None of those things have stopped him being absolutely clueless in front of goal.

Owen at Madrid didn't' do anywhere near as poorly as people think. 16 goals in 45 appearances, 26 starts. Nearly half of his games were off the bench. And that was the version of Owen who had suffered injuries already and clearly wasn't as quick.

If I go on holiday tomorrow and end up playing for a local Spanish side at the weekend and I miss a one-v-one I'm not going to blame not knowing the team or the language as an excuse. I wouldn't be any more likely to score if I had been there 2 years and knew the lingo. If you can finish you can finish, I don't understand the endless excuses for him as to why he hasn't or can't.

[Fiasco]

I think conceding the first goal in the majority of our games is what has stopped us being champions. Coming back to to win after going behind again and again is unsustainable regardless of who is up front.

I think you can flip that the other way though and say our defensive lapses wouldn't have mattered as much if our forwards took their chances.

[spider-neil]

I think you can flip that the other way though and say our defensive lapses wouldn't have mattered as much if our forwards took their chances.

That didn't work in 13/14.

[Fiasco]

That didn't work in 13/14.

No, but this is a much better team anyway. And this team knows how to be champions. We maxed out what we had then and had lightning in a bottle for the season. Good defences win leagues I absolutely agree with that, but our shortcomings this season defensively have been amplified by our profligacy in front of goal.

[Eeyore]

You stated he became prolific in his last 2 seasons, Van persie was 27 when his penultimate season at Arsenal started and Henry had been gone for 3 yrs by that point.  Which is the point, Nunez might come good next yr, or like Van persie when he is 27 in 2 yrs time or not at all like Cisse, it's hard to come up with a good reason why next yr will be the yr, other than pure hope and wishful thinking

The reason he is likely to be better next season is that he will be a year nearer his physical peak. He will have more experience, will have matured and will have had another season coaching under his belt. He has already improved his overall game and if you look at his performances for Uruguay there is plenty to come.

As I said earlier in an ideal world you sign a 27 year old Nunez or a 27 year old Van Persie. However that is far more expensive in terms of wages and fees and isn't the way the club is operated because if it doesn't work out then you end up losing huge sums of money.

For me Nunez deserves a season under Slot.

[JackWard33]

Shot selection varies massively between strikers so whilst you cannot control which go in and which don't you can have a say on the type of finishes you choose to execute which will obviously decide who is the better finisher.

Nunez can improve and become a better finisher scoring boat loads or still smash all his shots at the keeper in the next 3 years. During those 3 years his high volume shots will always be there. So it's not the most important metric is it?

The question you should be asking if you're genuinely curious about what most impacts a strikers goal return is... if he's been finishing badly / unluckily (however you view it) but STILL putting up a better than 1 in 2 (per 90) from open play goal return ... HOW?

How does a striker that's an absolutely horrible finisher still score goals at the top level of football at a really good rate?

[Eeyore]

I'm sorry but I'm not sure the language barrier or the new league/teammates argument holds any weight. Football is football, here or wherever else. And if you're 8 yards out from goal unchallenged and the goalkeeper has given you 2/3rds of the goal to aim at, you don't blast it as hard as you can hoping for the best. New country, language barrier, absolutely anything else doesn't matter there. None of those things have stopped him being absolutely clueless in front of goal.

Owen at Madrid didn't' do anywhere near as poorly as people think. 16 goals in 45 appearances, 26 starts. Nearly half of his games were off the bench. And that was the version of Owen who had suffered injuries already and clearly wasn't as quick.

If I go on holiday tomorrow and end up playing for a local Spanish side at the weekend and I miss a one-v-one I'm not going to blame not knowing the team or the language as an excuse. I wouldn't be any more likely to score if I had been there 2 years and knew the lingo. If you can finish you can finish, I don't understand the endless excuses for him as to why he hasn't or can't.

So Owens's 16 goals and 4 assists in 2443 minutes for Madrid is decent but Nunez this season with 18 goals and 11 assists in 2948 minutes is terrible ?

[amir87]

Can't speak for others but some of my own frustrations with Nunez is he's got so many attributes that a striker would give anything for but he makes the relatively easy stuff look very difficult.

His scoring rate is no doubt very good and he'll always get chances because of his ability to be in the right position, but then we've seen him make stupid decisions or execute very poorly when an opportunity presents itself. It's the wild nature of his game that will always baffle fans, especially when he's seen as the talisman. 

Can he improve this aspect? Of course he can. He absolutely has to if we expect him to be our main forward.

[rafathegaffa83]

There is no argument that Nunez misses big chances and at crucial moments of the game. The argument (for me at least) is do you persevere and coach him to finish better or move him on for someone who right now is finishing better for their current club. And for me personally, I would coach him because he has a lot of qualities you genuinely can't coach rather than things people think you can't coach.

You persevere at this point. At a minimum you give him next season under Slot and see if he can do anything to improve his finishing and reading of offsides. At least by that point, if we opt to move on, we'll likely sell at an accounting profit for FFP purposes.

[PaleBlueDot]

The question you should be asking if you're genuinely curious about what most impacts a strikers goal return is... if he's been finishing badly / unluckily (however you view it) but STILL putting up a better than 1 in 2 (per 90) from open play goal return ... HOW?

How does a striker that's an absolutely horrible finisher still score goals at the top level of football at a really good rate?

This is why looking at numbers alone isn't good for anyone. Context is everything. If you just look at his numbers he's had a good season. If you've watched every Liverpool game this season I would say he hasn't been good enough. Boils down to that really.