Topic: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"

[Wabaloolah]

I wouldn't worry too much about polling, they've been spectacularly wrong at the last three elections

[Jiminy Cricket]

they really didn't, they didn't have the numbers to make it work. There weren't enough Labour and Lib Dem MPs to form a majority. They also would have needed the SDLP (not a problem as they took the Labour whip anyway), and Scottish and Welsh Nationalists and the Greens and it would have given a majority of around one or two seats.

It would not have been stable, would have tottered along for a few months before an inevitable General Election and a likely Try landslide.

They should not have gone in with the Tories though, Clegg made a huge political mistake there for a few years of being in the limelight. They should have offered a less formal confidence and supply arrangement on a bill by bill basis. Had that happened then the Tory outright win in 2015 would not have happened as the Lib Dem meltdown would have been less severe.

Corbyn, Miliband and Brexit have all been consequences of Clegg's ineptitude

This is exactly right. Though, there is always some inevitable hindsight in these situations. I understood at the time why the LibDems went in with the Tories; I don't think I was all 'should have done confidence and supply instead' at the time. Though, Clegg et al should have been able to reason their way through it - being 'professional' politicians after all.

[Wabaloolah]

No there’s no further recourse I don’t think. Siân? Corky?

The establishment is the establishment. I won’t be surprised if they overturn it.

I know, I was being facetious! I won't be surprised if they do either

[filopastry]

One poll should not be taken in isolation. Both Tories and Labour down but Lib Dems up a lot and BP up a bit too.

Doesn't make a lot of sense really. Suspect Tories are too high though

Fully agree, that Kantar looks nuts, polling is really all over the place at present, more than I have ever seen it.

Paying more attention to Yougov and Ipsos-Mori than most as they did well on the Euro elections, and yougov's explanation of the "False Recall" issue seems compelling (although of course there can be lots of other polling errors as well)

The NI unification poll is interesting though, as relatively little polling is done there

[Andy]

they really didn't, they didn't have the numbers to make it work. There weren't enough Labour and Lib Dem MPs to form a majority. They also would have needed the SDLP (not a problem as they took the Labour whip anyway), and Scottish and Welsh Nationalists and the Greens and it would have given a majority of around one or two seats.

It would not have been stable, would have tottered along for a few months before an inevitable General Election and a likely Try landslide.

They should not have gone in with the Tories though, Clegg made a huge political mistake there for a few years of being in the limelight. They should have offered a less formal confidence and supply arrangement on a bill by bill basis. Had that happened then the Tory outright win in 2015 would not have happened as the Lib Dem meltdown would have been less severe.

Corbyn, Miliband and Brexit have all been consequences of Clegg's ineptitude

So they didn't have the numbers to create a coalition with Labour but they shouldn't have formed one with the Conservatives? What other options were there?

Or, if the Labour party had made the right Miliband their leader then it is unlikely Cameron would have been in power to have the referendum.

The biggest impact Clegg had was on the Lib Dems. They should have made it clearer to the voters what they achieved when in government - watering down the Tories' more extreme policies etc - and not taken all the shit that the Conservatives threw at them.

[Jiminy Cricket]

Brexit won't happen, the longer this goes on the more confident I am of it not happening. I have been saying this for a long time too. Nothing I have seen yet causes me to think I am wrong.

Whether it's due to a 2nd referendum or straight revocation, it won't happen

Well. Except that a No-Plan Brexit happens by default unless it is actually stopped by Parliament.

[Wabaloolah]

This is exactly right. Though, there is always some inevitable hindsight in these situations. I understood at the time why the LibDems went in with the Tories; I don't think I was all 'should have done confidence and supply instead' at the time. Though, Clegg et al should have been able to reason their way through it - being 'professional' politicians after all.

It was obvious when they made the decision they fucked themselves. The infamous chummy rose garden press conference was the icing on the cake.

Had Labour not fucked up the leadership election and elected Dave over Ed, they'd have pissed it in 2015

[filopastry]

It was obvious when they made the decision they fucked themselves. The infamous chummy rose garden press conference was the icing on the cake.

Had Labour not fucked up the leadership election and elected Dave over Ed, they'd have pissed it in 2015

In retrospect LDs should have done in 2010 what they will likely do after the next GE, offer support on specific votes rather than going into coalition with anyone.

Realistically Brexit makes it impossible for them to do anything meaningful with the a Johnson led Tory party and the likely radical Labour economic manifesto is going to make it impossible for them to do  anything meaningful with a Corbyn led Labour party

[filopastry]

It was obvious when they made the decision they fucked themselves. The infamous chummy rose garden press conference was the icing on the cake.

Had Labour not fucked up the leadership election and elected Dave over Ed, they'd have pissed it in 2015

I voted for Ed as well in the leadership election, now that is a mistake I am pretty embarrassed about!

[Wabaloolah]

So they didn't have the numbers to create a coalition with Labour but they shouldn't have formed one with the Conservatives? What other options were there?

Or, if the Labour party had made the right Miliband their leader then it is unlikely Cameron would have been in power to have the referendum.

The biggest impact Clegg had was on the Lib Dems. They should have made it clearer to the voters what they achieved when in government - watering down the Tories' more extreme policies etc - and not taken all the shit that the Conservatives threw at them.

They could have just let the Tories rule as a minority, voted against Tuition fees and Austerity measures and there would likely have been another election in the Autumn.

What was clear at the time was there was no great evidence of the public wanting the Tories to be elected as they failed to win a majority against all the odds.

What happened in 2015 was the Lib Dem vote totally collapsed and before where they'd win seats from the Tories due to tactical voting, this time voters reverted to type and supported Labour or even Green.

I agree 100% about the Labour leadership election and said so in a later post.

The 2010 election, the Labour leadership election after Gordon Brown resigned and Brexit were all a consequence of Nick Clegg

[Rush 82]

Excellent. Some boss stuff on this thread at the mo...

Savaged to death by the corgis?

[filopastry]

They could have just let the Tories rule as a minority, voted against Tuition fees and Austerity measures and there would likely have been another election in the Autumn.

What was clear at the time was there was no great evidence of the public wanting the Tories to be elected as they failed to win a majority against all the odds.

What happened in 2015 was the Lib Dem vote totally collapsed and before where they'd win seats from the Tories due to tactical voting, this time voters reverted to type and supported Labour or even Green.

I agree 100% about the Labour leadership election and said so in a later post.

The 2010 election, the Labour leadership election after Gordon Brown resigned and Brexit were all a consequence of Nick Clegg

I think the LDs fear (probably justified) was that they would be accused of being a wasted vote in that situation, if they were incapable of getting a majority and also unwilling to work with other parties (an issue they may well have again after the next GE). So would get hammered in the following GE

[Jiminy Cricket]

At the end of the day, for most of England at least, there are only three realistic options: Tory; Labour; LibDems. Take your pick. Not voting is not an option. Them is your choices.

[Wabaloolah]

I voted for Ed as well in the leadership election, now that is a mistake I am pretty embarrassed about!

David all the way for me and he'd have won it too had it not been for the Union block vote. Ed's reforms of that vote and the £3 supporter option being able to vote then made Corbyn the leader!

Fuck me how did Labour mess this all up so much

[Commie Bobbie]

I'm no longer sure that I want a second referendum - every day I realise that the public in this country are thick as pig shit. They have no idea of reality and just want to blame the EU for everything. I'd rather the MP's just said fuck off we aren't doing it, I would not trust the general public to go get my tea from the chinese, never mind decide the future of my kids.

It'll be like the Truman Show, cancel Brexit, execute Frottage and Johnson and the thick c*nts will just forget all about it.

All in favour of the above.

Just throw it in the fucking bin.

[Wabaloolah]

I think the LDs fear (probably justified) was that they would be accused of being a wasted vote in that situation, if they were incapable of getting a majority and also unwilling to work with other parties (an issue they may well have again after the next GE). So would get hammered in the following GE

So they chose to not just prop up a Tory government but to form an active part of one and led to policies that even Thatcher would have thought too harsh.

Austerity was not a necessary choice it was an ideological one and the Lib Dems, Charlie Kennedy aside, played an active part in that whole sorry mess and we are where we are today as a consequence of that action

[oldfordie]

I think the Scottish courts’ decision is another gift to Cummings. He and Johnson are being seen as ‘losing’ time after time, which is apparently humiliating.

Except it all plays into their narrative and strategy: ‘The will of the people’; “We voted leave”, ‘Democracy isn’t being served’, and so on. A butcher interviewed in his shop in Leeds summed up what I strongly suspect is a widely held view, “I normally vote Labour but this time I’ll either vote Nigel Frottage or Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson or whoever wants to get us out of Europe, because Watson and Jeremy Corbyn are just useless, they do not believe in democracy and the will of the people”.

Enough to make you weep, but that level of entrenched thinking is echoed whenever Vox Pops is used. And it’s depressing to consider that it’s either very prevalent, or the BBC are complicit in unbalanced reporting.

Then there’s McCluskey at the TUC conference telling the BBC reporter how marginalised and delusional Tom Watson has become, for having the temerity to hold a point of view suggesting the shortfall in support for Labour in every poll, could be closed if Labour had a clear Remain policy. McCluskey makes me angrier than virtually anyone else on the hard left; he’s a thoroughly despicable man.

A few weeks back McCluskey said "Theres a well funded remain Lobby in this country who have turned the Brexit issue toxic"
Get you head around that, it wasn't people like Frottage with his breaking point posters which resulted in a far right nutter murdering a Labour MP, it was the fault of remain campaigners.
I think his argument was the lowest of the low attack on remain. even Frottage wouldn't have come up with something so perverted.

[Rush 82]

To think that the Italian parliament was once the laughing stock of Europe

[Red Beret]

I was always pissed off with Clegg's angry reaction post 2015 when he complained people were judging the results with the benefit of hindsight.  When everybody with a fucking brain could have predicted what was going to happen to the LD's after jumping into the bed with the Tories.

No focus groups, no professional pollsters; no analysis.  We just fucking knew he'd set up his party to be utterly destroyed.  Either Clegg was an idiot and completely out of touch with the average voter to not to see it coming, or he was just lying through his teeth because he couldn't publicly acknowledge how he had shafted his own party.

The only reason they have any prospect of comeback is because of the incompetence of the two main parties.  And I only hate myself a little bit for actually being relieved.

[Snail]

Yellowhammer’s been published.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/831199/20190802_Latest_Yellowhammer_Planning_assumptions_CDL.pdf

There’s no way that’s the real thing.

[gazzalfc]

Yellowhammer has dropped

EDIT:- They've changed that. No way was it called

WORST CASE PLANNING ASSUMPTIONS in August
 
Wonder what redacted point 15 is (edit 2 - apparently it was about oil refineries

[rob1966]

All these vox pops are just for a 'balanced' debate. If there were another referendum then I'm pretty sure Remain would win. This is why the Brexiteers are so against mentioning a 2nd referendum. No one could believe they won in the first place.

I'm basing it on leavers I come across though, people like my cousin and all his stupid mates, thick c*nts like my Dad and the 11 or 12 HGV drivers I was on an EU invented pointless and expensive Driver CPC course with last weekend, plus every other lorry driver I come across. Too many people, such as Class 1 drivers saw foreign workers have a negative impact on their wages, then add in the £500 we have to pay to keep our CPC cards to allow us to continue to drive and their is a very blinkered view on the EU.

[Red Beret]

I'm no longer sure that I want a second referendum - every day I realise that the public in this country are thick as pig shit. They have no idea of reality and just want to blame the EU for everything. I'd rather the MP's just said fuck off we aren't doing it, I would not trust the general public to go get my tea from the chinese, never mind decide the future of my kids.

It'll be like the Truman Show, cancel Brexit, execute Frottage and Johnson and the thick c*nts will just forget all about it.

Yeah.  Seeing as we've had enough of experts, why should we need anything as tedious as a trial, with evidence and Judges to pass a sentence?  Just pop a cap in the back of their heads and be done with it.  Maybe kneecap them first and let them bleed for a few minutes before delivering the coup de grace.

[Sudden Death Draft Loser]

I'd rather the MP's just said fuck off we aren't doing it, I would not trust the general public to go get my tea from the chinese, never mind decide the future of my kids.

It'll be like the Truman Show, cancel Brexit, execute Frottage and Johnson and the thick c*nts will just forget all about it.

Which is what they should have done straight after the vote, it was after all an advisory referendum.

[Snail]

Murray Foote
@murrayf00te

Kwasi Kwarteng on live TV: "I'm not saying judges are unbiased but people up and down the country are."

Tory Ministers are now content to fuel conspiracy theories. Truly beyond belief

[Rush 82]

Just seen the first summaries of Yellow Hammer report

AND THESE FUCKERS STILL PUSHED / ARE PUSHING FOR NO DEAL!

They should be thrown in jail for life the bastards

[Circa1892]

Just seen the first summaries of Yellow Hammer report

AND THESE FUCKERS STILL PUSHED / ARE PUSHING FOR NO DEAL!

They should be thrown in jail for life the bastards

It’s a fucking joke. They’re desperate for no deal to avoid the EU tax avoidance regulations. It’s barbaric.

[Rush 82]

Yellow Hammer

Short summary

Everything you take for granted as a first world country will be gone.

Electricity
Water (no chemicals to treat it)
Medicines
Fresh food

[Circa1892]

Yellow Hammer

Short summary

Everything you take for granted as a first world country will be gone.

Electricity
Water (no chemicals to treat it)
Medicines
Fresh food

To be fair though Rees Mogg will make loads on his hedge fund, Russian agents like Frottage and Kilne will be happy, Corbyn might get his railway if we ever get power and Cummings can stay in his castle. So seems worth it to me?

[Andy-oh-six]

Yellow Hammer

Short summary

Everything you take for granted as a first world country will be gone.

Electricity
Water (no chemicals to treat it)
Medicines
Fresh food

But we will have taken back control. We survived the blitz and we can survive this.

[rob1966]

Yeah.  Seeing as we've had enough of experts, why should we need anything as tedious as a trial, with evidence and Judges to pass a sentence?  Just pop a cap in the back of their heads and be done with it.  Maybe kneecap them first and let them bleed for a few minutes before delivering the coup de grace.

They are knowingly destroying the country for their own personal gain, that is treason. Reintroduce the death penalty for it and have a public execution. We can have a bank holiday and stream it on Facebook

[HarryLabrador]

Paragraph 15 has been redacted. I wonder why. What could be worse than all the others?

[Circa1892]

They are knowingly destroying the country for their own personal gain, that is treason. Reintroduce the death penalty for it and have a public execution. We can have a bank holiday and stream it on Facebook

Pretty sure last time I used PPV was Oasis at Barrowlands but would pay for this.

[Snail]

Senior reporter for the Sunday Times.

Rosamund Urwin
@RosamundUrwin

What's different about the new Yellowhammer document that the government has just published compared with the one I got hold of last month? The heading.
What did the version I had say? BASE SCENARIO
Now what does the new one say? HMG Reasonable Worst Case Planning Assumptions

[Machae]

I'm basing it on leavers I come across though, people like my cousin and all his stupid mates, thick c*nts like my Dad and the 11 or 12 HGV drivers I was on an EU invented pointless and expensive Driver CPC course with last weekend, plus every other lorry driver I come across. Too many people, such as Class 1 drivers saw foreign workers have a negative impact on their wages, then add in the £500 we have to pay to keep our CPC cards to allow us to continue to drive and their is a very blinkered view on the EU.

I appreciate their are many leavers out there, but the demos, petitions and general tone of the public over the last year gives me the confidence remain would win

[Circa1892]

I appreciate their are many leavers out there, but the demos, petitions and general tone of the public over the last year gives me the confidence remain would win

Problem is most of the people backing leave are serial campaigners who are all about whipping people up and don’t give a shit about actually doing stuff. Whereas remainders tend to be more serious and practical and are ergo not usually as much about the campaign.

[Jiminy Cricket]

To be fair though Rees Mogg will make loads on his hedge fund, Russian agents like Frottage and Kilne will be happy, Corbyn might get his railway if we ever get power and Cummings can stay in his castle. So seems worth it to me?

And what's wrong with good ol' British steam!?

[Rush 82]

Senior reporter for the Sunday Times.

Liars, charlatans, confidence tricksters.

and still people will vote for them

[Jiminy Cricket]

Senior reporter for the Sunday Times.

Rosamund Urwin
@RosamundUrwin

What's different about the new Yellowhammer document that the government has just published compared with the one I got hold of last month? The heading.
What did the version I had say? BASE SCENARIO
Now what does the new one say? HMG Reasonable Worst Case Planning Assumptions

So. This means that they have published a doctored document - yes? The title is important! And, they had better have very good reasons for the redaction.

[Iska]

Pretty sure last time I used PPV was Oasis at Barrowlands but would pay for this.

I saw Oasis at Barrowlands in 1994.  They strutted out like heroes, Liam took the acclaim and stuck around for one song then fucked off claiming a sore throat, leaving harrassed pro Noel desperately trying to hold the gig together while the public were bemused at first, then grew angry, before feeling enraged that they’d been cheated.