Topic: The Top Six Mini-League Thread... Sponsored by TENA

[sms1986]

southampton and Palace will have nothing to play for and be the definition of pushovers.

Some of our games will be the same.

[Crosby Nick]

southampton and Palace will have nothing to play for and be the definition of pushovers.

By that logic we should beat them and Watford easily enough too. And in theory Boro too who will be down when we play them.

[Anfield89]

Some of our games will be the same.

They haven't lost since October mate.

[Caston]

They haven't lost since October mate.

Draw a lot though

[sms1986]

They haven't lost since October mate.

They've drawn a load of games and haven't exactly been playing at their best. They've also avoided three of the top six since January.

[JackWard33]

By that logic we should beat them and Watford easily enough too. And in theory Boro too who will be down when we play them.

The difference is the level of us and the Mancs... sadly. Some of their draws - especially a couple of the home ones - disguise how well they've been doing.
They've been playing at a high level recently - we haven't. If we can get at least Lallana back and start to control games and create more chances then our fixtures should be easy. If we play like the last 2 or 3 we're just not playing well enough to dominate teams and make our fixtures the formality they should be.
Our 4 games are all winnable but whether we've got the players to get it done is the question.
Who knows it looks like something around a 50/50 shot whether we get top 4 or not at the moment.

[Anfield89]

Draw a lot though

True, you'd probably expect them to continue in similar form though that probably gets them qualified. Il be hoping City beat them a draw puts them both likely ahead of us

[phonic]

I think 3 wins will be enough for us to get in top 4.

I think Utd will pick up another 11 points finishing on 74.
Arsenal will get another 14 points finishing on 71.
We're on 66 so 9 points will take us to 75.

I'm off to bury my head back in the sand.

[sms1986]

The difference is the level of us and the Mancs... sadly. Some of their draws - especially a couple of the home ones - disguise how well they've been doing.
They've been playing at a high level recently - we haven't. If we can get at least Lallana back and start to control games and create more chances then our fixtures should be easy. If we play like the last 2 or 3 we're just not playing well enough to dominate teams and make our fixtures the formality they should be.
Our 4 games are all winnable but whether we've got the players to get it done is the question.
Who knows it looks like something around a 50/50 shot whether we get top 4 or not at the moment.

Play like the last two or three? Two of those games were wins, three points is the most important thing.

[Crosby Nick]

True, you'd probably expect them to continue in similar form though that probably gets them qualified. Il be hoping City beat them a draw puts them both likely ahead of us

If they draw all three of those big aways then that's 6 points dropped and we should be OK. Or they could win one and lose two. If they get more than 4 from those three then it will leave very little margin for error.

[phonic]

The difference is the level of us and the Mancs... sadly. Some of their draws - especially a couple of the home ones - disguise how well they've been doing.
They've been playing at a high level recently - we haven't. If we can get at least Lallana back and start to control games and create more chances then our fixtures should be easy. If we play like the last 2 or 3 we're just not playing well enough to dominate teams and make our fixtures the formality they should be.
Our 4 games are all winnable but whether we've got the players to get it done is the question.
Who knows it looks like something around a 50/50 shot whether we get top 4 or not at the moment.

In all honesty I don't give a toss if we play like we have in the last 2 or 3 as long as we score more than the other team.

[Higgins79]

I appreciate that results against Bournemouth and Palace are making our task harder than needs be and I'm just as frustrated as everyone, but before a ball had been kicked this season, if I had been offered Liverpool being bang in the race for 3rd/4th with 4 remaining games against Watford, saints, west ham and boro, with our rivals all having games against each other and the title contenders I would have snapped your hand off!

[phonic]

I appreciate that results against Bournemouth and Palace are making our task harder than needs be and I'm just as frustrated as everyone, but before a ball had been kicked this season, if I had been offered Liverpool being bang in the race for 3rd/4th with 4 remaining games against Watford, saints, west ham and boro, with our rivals all having games against each other and the title contenders I would have snapped your hand off!

I agree mate. What's happened has gone now and we can't change it. All we can do is win the last 4 and hope it's enough.

I think we'll beat Watford, Southampton at home needs to be made into the type of atmosphere we had in the title run-in a few years back, West Ham away will be tough but the pitch is big enough for us to take advantage and Boro will hopefully be down and done by the time they come to Anfield.

Adam Lallana coming back will be a boost and if Sturridge can get back and influence a game somewhere then it'll be a bonus.

[JackWard33]

In all honesty I don't give a toss if we play like we have in the last 2 or 3 as long as we score more than the other team.

Yes.
Thanks for pointing that out.
The point is that results catch up to performances. If we want to win the last 4 we'll have to play better than we have in the last 3.
I think we can play better - Lallana coming back and pushing Lucas out the team and Can deeper instantly improves us - but we will need to. We've been playing these teams almost on an equal footing - the WBA and Stoke games broke for us the Palace game broke against us.

[GinKop]

Is this current side, with the injuries we have and its mental frailty, capable of winning 4 games in a row? I think it's unlikely so we are praying the head-to-head games between our rivals can somehow results wise work out in our favour. I can see us picking up 2 wins, a draw and a loss. Going to be a big ask now and we can look at Bournemouth and Palace games as the ones where we have shot ourselves in the foot.

It will be galling to miss out now and will stack on top of a series of failings recently which to me point to a club which needs to grow some backbone and belief. Missing out on the league, the FA Cup semi final against Villa, the league cup final against City and the Europa League final. We must as a club break this habitual snatching-defeat-from-the-jaws-of-victory we are seeing too often now.

[AaronSingh25]

If they scrape a victory against City this place will be in meltdown.

[newterp]

If they scrape a victory against City this place will be in meltdown.

yes - but at that point we should also be resigned to the fact that they will have earned the upper hand.

[clinical]

If we won yesterday I'd have been relatively confident we'd make it. Now I'd say utd are slight favourites. Also arsenals confidence will be back now. 

[Brian Blessed]

If Untied continue current form, you'd suspect 3 draws, 3 wins, putting them on 75. If we draw 2, win 2, we end on 74. That's how I think it will go.

Thank fuck football isn't that predictable, though.

[Chief Brody]

Bookies still fancy us.

[peachybum]

Coming into our last 8 games i said we'd just miss out. And it's still looking like the case. I thought the fact our run in is against teams that expose our weaknesses it would be hard for us to fix our problems as the pressure to get results ramps up. And that was before we got even more injuries.

Still, i'm enjoying actually being in the race and not down in 7th with nothing to play for.

[tommy LFC]

Adam Lallana coming back will be massive.

[Grobbelrevell]

Bookies still fancy us.

Most prediction models still think that 3 wins all but guarantees it.

To say the next four games are huge for Klopp's tenure at the club, and the club's medium term future in general, would be an understatement.

[peachybum]

Adam Lallana coming back will be massive.

You think? I always get the impression he's most impressive against top half teams that try and play us. Allowing his pressing to come to the fore and give him space when we attack. Against bottom half teams that just sit in a low block his pressing is meaningless and like Coutinho he's just getting the ball on the edge of the box looking at a wall of players with nowhere to go.

I think of all the players out Sturridge would be the one we need most. Someone who can finish in tight spaces and from tight angles. Problem is even if he actually gets injury it's doubtful he'll get his sharpness back in time.

[tommy LFC]

You think? I always get the impression he's most impressive against top half teams that try and play us. Allowing his pressing to come to the fore and give him space when we attack. Against bottom half teams that just sit in a low block his pressing is meaningless and like Coutinho he's just getting the ball on the edge of the box looking at a wall of players with nowhere to go.

I think of all the players out Sturridge would be the one we need most. Someone who can finish in tight spaces and from tight angles. Problem is even if he actually gets injury it's doubtful he'll get his sharpness back in time.

At the very least, he would have been a much better option than anything coming off the bench yesterday.

At the very best he's someone who will actually run behind and show movement for Coutinho to find. Or he will find Coutinho.

[Crosby Nick]

You think? I always get the impression he's most impressive against top half teams that try and play us. Allowing his pressing to come to the fore and give him space when we attack. Against bottom half teams that just sit in a low block his pressing is meaningless and like Coutinho he's just getting the ball on the edge of the box looking at a wall of players with nowhere to go.

I think of all the players out Sturridge would be the one we need most. Someone who can finish in tight spaces and from tight angles. Problem is even if he actually gets injury it's doubtful he'll get his sharpness back in time.

First half of the season he scored against Hull,  Leicester,  Stoke,Boro and probably others I can't remember from the bottom half. We were playing better as aside then I know bit he can make a difference in these games.

[Grobbelrevell]

First half of the season he scored against Hull,  Leicester,  Stoke,Boro and probably others I can't remember from the bottom half. We were playing better as aside then I know bit he can make a difference in these games.

Bottom line - he's a good player, with experience. We need more of those.

[please, I have my reasons for it but...]

You think? I always get the impression he's most impressive against top half teams that try and play us. Allowing his pressing to come to the fore and give him space when we attack. Against bottom half teams that just sit in a low block his pressing is meaningless and like Coutinho he's just getting the ball on the edge of the box looking at a wall of players with nowhere to go.

I think of all the players out Sturridge would be the one we need most. Someone who can finish in tight spaces and from tight angles. Problem is even if he actually gets injury it's doubtful he'll get his sharpness back in time.

Definitely would have preferred him in the center instead of either Emre or Gini yesterday.

[Brian Blessed]

There is no way Lallana doesn't improve our starting eleven right now, whoever the opposition may be.

[lionel_messias]

Regarding United:




I don't think they are going to beat City on Thursday. They'll want a point mind.


Then Swansea at home is massive for them, they have to win that.


Then what are they going to do against


Arsenal, Spurs, then Southampton; all away from home?


Draw against the Gunners, lose to Spurs, beat Southampton.


Fuck its going to be tight. We may need United not to win on any of that little run of away fixtures with that Europa league match in between.


Because they finish with Palace without much at stake for the South London team.

[Crosby Nick]

Palace might not have anything at stake on the final day but they'll still be awkward to play I think. They're in form and they've developed a reputation for upsetting the big sides. Even if they're safe I think they'd be up for that game, revenge for last season's Cup Final.

[Chief Brody]

They'll beat Arsenal.

Palace will roll over.

[please, I have my reasons for it but...]

We need them to lose twice and draw once, provided we win our four games.

Probably not going to happen.

[Garlicbread]

I still believe we will do it.

[El Lobo]

We need them to lose twice and draw once, provided we win our four games.

Probably not going to happen.

Who....?

[GinKop]

We need them to lose twice and draw once, provided we win our four games.

Probably not going to happen.

Italics - could happen given who they are playing
Bold - Unlikely given the level of football we have been showing since turn of the year against lower placed teams

[dudleyred]

75 will be enough - that would represent a huge improvement on last year for starters so even if it misses out we've made huge progress

75 is ordinarily enough for top 4 so again if it isn't its just one of those seasons

The summer is huge for us, CL or no champions league

[Kop307]

United

City away - 1
Swansea home - 3
Arsenal away - 1
Tottenham away - 0
Southampton away - 3
Palace home - 3

United would finish on 74 points. I feel I've been optimistic with them not winning against any of the big sides.

City have injuries - Mourinho will set United up to be solid. I can't see them getting beat, apparently Aguero and Silva are out. Wenger never beats Mourinho. They'll win the home games, Southampton and Palace will roll over.

Liverpool

Watford away - 1
Southampton home - 3
West Ham away - 1
Boro home - 3

Giving us 74 points also.

I can genuinely see this coming down to GD. Watford are safe but they've got a lot of big lads who'll cause us issues. You can just fucking see Andy Carroll scoring and we've struggled massively against West Ham in recent years. I've got us down for a home win against Southampton but they're another team we've struggled against. We didn't score against them in the league this season and didn't score in 2 legs in the cup. Ive got us down for a win but I can see us dropping points there. I've gone for a home win but I'm far from confident we'll get it.

Be interested to see what others think.

[MTred406]

Points for 4th the last 6 years:

15-16- 66pts
14-15- 70pts
13-14- 79pts
12-13- 73pts
11-12- 69pts
10-11- 68pts

Average: 70pts

Winning 3 of the next 4 gets us to 75pts, and I still like our chances.  Plenty of room for the others to trip up and take points off each other.

To get to 75:
United needs 12pts from: City, Swansea, Arsenal, Spurs, Southampton, Palace
Arsenal needs 18pts from: Leicester, Spurs, United, Southampton, Stoke, Sunderland, Everton

While the pressure is on us more now that we lost, our rivals have very little room for error either.  So I guess my point is:

[sms1986]

Most prediction models still think that 3 wins all but guarantees it.

Think we'll get at least two wins - Watford and Middlesbrough. West Ham might be the toughest game we have left, but a draw will do. Southampton could go any way.