Author Topic: The Horse Racing thread (Read 338169 times)

Cormack Snr · « **Reply #5840 on:** February 13, 2024, 06:51:44 pm »

Sibyl Charm 2nd 3/1

Glum faces from the woman of the household, my wife asked could there be a Stewards thingy..

Cormack Snr · « **Reply #5841 on:** February 14, 2024, 05:13:17 pm »

Been to a tea party for my Mum and Dads 65th Wedding Anniversary.. Loads of cake, this horse might be the icing..

Got this in the morning

Kempton 19:30 Grigio 11/4 into 15/8

duvva 💅 · « **Reply #5842 on:** February 14, 2024, 06:04:26 pm »

Good luck with the latest one Cormack

Just noticed Maureen Mullins has died (mother of Willie etc) some legacy she leaves behind

duvva 💅 · « **Reply #5843 on:** February 14, 2024, 07:41:07 pm »

Quote from: Cormack Snr on February 14, 2024, 05:13:17 pm

Been to a tea party for my Mum and Dads 65th Wedding Anniversary.. Loads of cake, this horse might be the icing..

Got this in the morning

Kempton 19:30 Grigio 11/4 into 15/8

Winner winner chicken dinner

Cormack Snr · « **Reply #5844 on:** February 14, 2024, 07:58:21 pm »

Thanks duvva

Won well..

My son told us today about her dying, sad.

When the ale set in today my brother-in law went down the bookies and put £70 on between all of us, my Mum doesn't even bet on the National and put a fiver in. My wife's on the phone now to her Mum talking about it..

Here are the results since my brother joined, we started when he hit a hat-trick of winners. Not big prices but good strike-rate.. Well done Billy Liddell

6th Feb Jungle Dance WON 3/1
6th Glory Dancer 3rd 5/1
7th Feb Ahlain WON 5/1
7th Feb Egoist 2nd 4/1
8th Feb So Chic 3rd 7/2
9th Feb Cabeza De Llave WON 9/4
9th Feb Due Date WON 5/2
10th Feb Pallas Lord WON 9/4
11th Feb NO BET
12th Feb Great Blasket 4th 7/2
12th Feb Darlo Pride WON 5/2
13th Feb Sibyl Charm 2nd 3/1
14th Feb Grigio WON 5/2

duvva 💅 · « **Reply #5845 on:** February 14, 2024, 08:18:42 pm »

Prices are decent enough, especially with that strike rate. Hope it keeps up for you all

Cormack Snr · « **Reply #5846 on:** February 15, 2024, 07:26:15 am »

duvva

Another short one but as you say, Billy Liddell has a good strike-rate. My Grandad said he burst the net once..

Southwell 4-53 Tortured Soul 2/1

1892tillforever · « **Reply #5847 on:** February 15, 2024, 11:02:05 am »

Quote from: Cormack Snr on February 13, 2024, 01:42:55 pm

1892

Over 120pts profit Nov to Jan.. My wife is backing them now after her sister winning the past few weeks, she got let down on a placepot once and never spoke for a day. Might be a silver cloud if it goes wrong then..
She is putting a fiver on between her and her Mum. Her Mum phoned at 7 this morning asking "Has the tip come through" they think they are all going to win.
Her Mum knocked over a cup of coffee jumping up after last night's win.. I am caught up myself and put a tenner on along with our syndicate bet..

Come on Billy Liddell...

That's a bit mental in all honesty! The thing about racing tipsters that I've found is the difficulties in getting the 'price.' There is no point following one if you're not getting close to the recommended price because you're no longer getting value.

Do you have a link to the service Cormack? I'd like to check out the stats.

Quote from: Cormack Snr on February 15, 2024, 07:26:15 am

duvva

Another short one but as you say, Billy Liddell has a good strike-rate. My Grandad said he burst the net once..

Southwell 4-53 Tortured Soul 2/1

2/1 is actually a very good win because there's a 66.67% chance you'll lose (based on whether the horse's true odds are 2/1 of course).

Value is value, regardless of the price. A 1/2 bet can be value if the real chance of success is 75%, for example. Meanwhile, a 20/1 shot can be terrible value if the horse's real chance is about 1%!

If this lad is picking winners in the 6/4 to 3/1 price range consistently, that's highly impressive.

Barneylfc∗ · « **Reply #5848 on:** February 15, 2024, 11:33:02 am »

Best price 5/4 for that now

1892tillforever · « **Reply #5849 on:** February 15, 2024, 11:40:24 am »

Quote from: Barneylfc∗ on February 15, 2024, 11:33:02 am

Best price 5/4 for that now

Thus proving the point about value. Keep backing horses tipped at 2/1 when they are 5/4, and you'll lose money in the long run. No tipster has an ROI that allows for such a disparity in pricing. That said, I hope the horse wins for you Cormack!

Barneylfc∗ · « **Reply #5850 on:** February 15, 2024, 01:05:10 pm »

Quote from: 1892tillforever on February 15, 2024, 11:40:24 am

Thus proving the point about value. Keep backing horses tipped at 2/1 when they are 5/4, and you'll lose money in the long run. No tipster has an ROI that allows for such a disparity in pricing. That said, I hope the horse wins for you Cormack!

Yeah I used to follow a few horse tipsters a couple of years ago, but eventually it became pointless as you pretty much never got the price they posted. 'Tipped' at 10/1 then 9/2 by the time you get anywhere near it.

1892tillforever · « **Reply #5851 on:** February 15, 2024, 01:15:27 pm »

Quote from: Barneylfc∗ on February 15, 2024, 01:05:10 pm

Yeah I used to follow a few horse tipsters a couple of years ago, but eventually it became pointless as you pretty much never got the price they posted. 'Tipped' at 10/1 then 9/2 by the time you get anywhere near it.

They're basically all the same. You won't find many that are profitable to SP or even BSP. I've seen some sneaky shit too. Their P+L statements with the full price when Rule 4 dropped the price for everyone or having 3 places in a 6-7 horse race where basically no bookie offers it. You essentially need to make the bet as soon as it is released AND have access to about 44 bookies.

Barneylfc∗ · « **Reply #5852 on:** February 15, 2024, 04:59:25 pm »

Winner. Wasn't on though.

duvva 💅 · « **Reply #5853 on:** February 15, 2024, 06:02:06 pm »

Another winner.

You placing these bets online Cormack? It sounds like you’re not going big so it might not bother them but be interested to know if they restrict you if he can keep this strike rate up

Bookies don’t like winners

Cormack Snr · « **Reply #5854 on:** February 15, 2024, 06:06:13 pm »

Wow.. Won well again, we got 2/1 with BetVictor

When we get the horse the price is available on odds checker at the odds he says, it is only when you are getting tips off the big Tipsters like The Racing Post or big websites that the odds are slashed. There was still 7/4 at 8am and I put it on here half an hour before that.

We are going to open a few accounts so we can get the best price. Too good to be true at the moment but Billy Liddell has had a few 100pt threads on the Betfair forum.

He's the best thing since Billy Liddell

1892

I don't know how to do links or if I am allowed to but he is on ebay, picture of a girl with a jockey and a headline

122pts Profit Verified Horse Racing 6 Winners from Last 8 bets BET TODAY WON

Cormack Snr · « **Reply #5855 on:** February 15, 2024, 06:12:03 pm »

Sorry duvva, missed your thread.

I am putting them on Betvictor and B365. Putting fivers and tenner's on today. My brother in law is putting £25 on for us all.
My sons doing one in work with Betfair.. Christ it's exciting

duvva 💅 · « **Reply #5856 on:** February 15, 2024, 06:12:35 pm »

Quote from: Cormack Snr on February 15, 2024, 06:06:13 pm

Wow.. Won well again, we got 2/1 with BetVictor

When we get the horse the price is available on odds checker at the odds he says, it is only when you are getting tips off the big Tipsters like The Racing Post or big websites that the odds are slashed. There was still 7/4 at 8am and I put it on here half an hour before that.

We are going to open a few accounts so we can get the best price. Too good to be true at the moment but Billy Liddell has had a few 100pt threads on the Betfair forum.

He's the best thing since Billy Liddell

1892

I don't know how to do links or if I am allowed to but he is on ebay, picture of a girl with a jockey and a headline

122pts Profit Verified Horse Racing 6 Winners from Last 8 bets BET TODAY WON

Again, be interested to see if you open new accounts that start winning straight away and are largely successful how long they last.

Hope the good run continues for you

duvva 💅 · « **Reply #5857 on:** February 15, 2024, 06:13:40 pm »

Quote from: Cormack Snr on February 15, 2024, 06:12:03 pm

Sorry duvva, missed your thread.

I am putting them on Betvictor and B365. Putting fivers and tenner's on today. My brother in law is putting £25 on for us all.
My sons doing one in work with Betfair.. Christ it's exciting

Great stuff. Should be ok with Betfair Exchange

1892tillforever · « **Reply #5858 on:** February 15, 2024, 06:51:48 pm »

Quote from: Cormack Snr on February 15, 2024, 06:06:13 pm

Wow.. Won well again, we got 2/1 with BetVictor

When we get the horse the price is available on odds checker at the odds he says, it is only when you are getting tips off the big Tipsters like The Racing Post or big websites that the odds are slashed. There was still 7/4 at 8am and I put it on here half an hour before that.

We are going to open a few accounts so we can get the best price. Too good to be true at the moment but Billy Liddell has had a few 100pt threads on the Betfair forum.

He's the best thing since Billy Liddell

1892

I don't know how to do links or if I am allowed to but he is on ebay, picture of a girl with a jockey and a headline

122pts Profit Verified Horse Racing 6 Winners from Last 8 bets BET TODAY WON

Thanks Cormack. I noticed that he recommends a 20 point betting bank. At the odds he's tipping at, that's miles too low. Losing streaks will happen and I'd have the bank at 150 points, probably more if he's recommending 2-6 points a bet.

I decided to run the numbers on the small sample size he has given. Since Jan 13, he has picked 38 horses and had 22 wins. The number of 'expected wins' from the odds he tipped these horses at is just over 9!!!! So he is effectively winning almost 2.5 times more often than the odds would suggest (2.38) to be exact [A win rate of 57% against the 'expected' rate according to the odds of 24%.] This means he's on a hell of a hot streak. I am very interested to see how he progresses over the next few months. There's a cold run coming, just a question of when. That doesn't mean people shouldn't continue to use his tips of course! Ride the wave for as long as you can

duvva 💅 · « **Reply #5859 on:** February 15, 2024, 07:25:20 pm »

Christ another thread has been taken over by the Xg nerds

😂

1892tillforever · « **Reply #5860 on:** February 15, 2024, 07:35:18 pm »

Quote from: duvva 💅 on February 15, 2024, 07:25:20 pm

Christ another thread has been taken over by the Xg nerds 😂

Captain Buzzkill reporting for duty sir!

Cormack Snr · « **Reply #5861 on:** February 16, 2024, 08:31:53 am »

I had a text to say there is no bet today, we have opened five more accounts so see how we go.

It only cost me £4 to join with splitting it five ways, too good to be true at the moment. My wife said "Wouldn't it been great if we'd put £20 on all the six winners so far, we all think that though after the event.
So we are starting next bet with the money won already making it a £300 bank

Good stats 1892

1892tillforever · « **Reply #5862 on:** February 16, 2024, 08:40:14 am »

Quote from: Cormack Snr on February 16, 2024, 08:31:53 am

I had a text to say there is no bet today, we have opened five more accounts so see how we go.

It only cost me £4 to join with splitting it five ways, too good to be true at the moment. My wife said "Wouldn't it been great if we'd put £20 on all the six winners so far, we all think that though after the event.
So we are starting next bet with the money won already making it a £300 bank

Good stats 1892

I've yet to meet someone who put the exact right money on a winning bet

Cormack Snr · « **Reply #5863 on:** February 16, 2024, 08:43:34 am »

It's always the losers you put the wrong money on..

Cormack Snr · « **Reply #5864 on:** February 17, 2024, 09:15:43 am »

Wolverhampton 5-15 Nordic Glory

Sorry, I have been busy this morning, first chance to post. We got 4/1

Barneylfc∗ · « **Reply #5865 on:** February 17, 2024, 09:17:47 am »

7/2 Best price now

duvva 💅 · « **Reply #5866 on:** February 17, 2024, 09:28:52 am »

Watching with interest again Cormack

Also hoping L’Homme Presse can win impressively. No bet, just hoping he can be a player in the Gold Cup.

Barneylfc∗ · « **Reply #5867 on:** February 17, 2024, 09:29:41 am »

Quote from: Barneylfc∗ on February 17, 2024, 09:17:47 am

7/2 Best price now

Got double the odds on Hills, so chucked a fiver on at 7/1

Cormack Snr · « **Reply #5868 on:** February 17, 2024, 10:37:34 am »

Thanks all.

Gone into 9/4, always a good sign but still got to win.

Cormack Snr · « **Reply #5869 on:** February 17, 2024, 05:34:37 pm »

No good today, pulling for it's head and 7f looked a bridge too far..

Mr and Mrs Cormack bank

£300
£20 bets

Nordic Glory £20 win 4/1 Unp

Bank £280

duvva 💅 · « **Reply #5870 on:** February 17, 2024, 06:39:26 pm »

Reckon it was Barney’s money what did for it

Cormack Snr · « **Reply #5871 on:** February 18, 2024, 10:19:53 am »

No bet today..

Great player Ray Kennedy duvva, when we play Brentford I always think of him scoring that fantastic goal against them in the league cup probably not long after he signed in 1974.
I was in my late teens in the paddock and there was a load of Brentford fans there, Liverpool's hooligans came behind them until the police moved them.
Funny the things you remember from 50yrs ago..

Results since joining Billy Liddell

£25 bet between five of us

9th Feb Cabeza De Llave WON 9/4 £56.25 Won
9th Feb Due Date WON 5/2 £62.50 Won
10th Feb Pallas Lord WON 9/4 £56.25 Won
11th Feb NO BET
12th Feb Great Blasket 4th 7/2 £25 Lost
12th Feb Darlo Pride WON 5/2 £62.50 Won
13th Feb Sibyl Charm 2nd 3/1 £25 Lost
14th Feb Grigio WON 5/2 £62.50 Won
15th Feb Tortured Soul WON 2/1 £ 50 Won
16th Feb NO BET
17th Feb Nordic Glory Unp 5/2 £25 Lost
18th Feb NO BET

£275 Won

Cormack Snr · « **Reply #5872 on:** February 19, 2024, 08:53:06 am »

Wolverhampton 5-30 Neptune Legend 9/4

Cormack Snr · « **Reply #5873 on:** February 19, 2024, 08:59:44 am »

It has been 9/4 all morning, I took my grandson to school and it's gone into as low as 5/4.

Cormack Snr · « **Reply #5874 on:** February 19, 2024, 11:20:24 am »

Another bet today

Lingfield 2-17 / Goldsmith 4/1

We got 4/1, still 7/2 now

Cormack Snr · « **Reply #5875 on:** February 19, 2024, 05:43:57 pm »

Back in the winners enclosure..

Neptune Legend WON 9/4

Goldsmith 4th 4/1

Barneylfc∗ · « **Reply #5876 on:** February 19, 2024, 06:55:32 pm »

Was going to jump on, but the prices weren't worth it by the time I saw them.

The G in Gerrard · « **Reply #5877 on:** February 19, 2024, 07:07:34 pm »

I saw price boost for Goldsmith on 365 (@ 3/1) but was in the office today and couldn't get on it (didn't have time to look at the other one). Is there a maximum you can do under price boosts?

duvva 💅 · « **Reply #5878 on:** February 19, 2024, 08:14:05 pm »

Back on the winning trail.👍

Barneylfc∗ · « **Reply #5879 on:** February 19, 2024, 08:50:00 pm »

Quote from: The G in Gerrard on February 19, 2024, 07:07:34 pm

I saw price boost for Goldsmith on 365 (@ 3/1) but was in the office today and couldn't get on it (didn't have time to look at the other one). Is there a maximum you can do under price boosts?

Depends on your account.
I know people that can have all sorts of numbers from £10 right up to £50. Annoyingly they're one of them that don't tell you the max stake until you try to place it.
I don't get any boosts on 365