Topic: How many points would you expect in the next 5 league games - 2014/15 edition

[PhaseOfPlay]

Thank you so much for retitling this thread. I cant tell you how much the previous title annoyed me, it was plain and simple A Stupid Fucking Question whose only possible answer was '15". No ones ever happy to drop points, even if you understand in your heart that you cant win them all. 2 different concepts.

  ....do you feel should reasonably be expected in the....has always had my vote,

....well,anyway I can post happy in thread like this , real happy, I mean its a great thread, real good......instead of saying 15 now  I can say, hmm, tough one, anywhere between 11-15 seems reasonable...., I'll say 13.  Fat Sams the danger man 

Reading Bobinhood's posts is like reading Jack Kerouac. And I mean that as a compliment.

[Bobinhood]

Do you think they can tell I've been smoking?
Wait! who am I talking to? Is this thing on?
Tap. Tap.
shit

[conman]

I'm going to say 15. West Ham and Everton are prickly fixtures, but i think we will still beat em. That being said, I haven't checked our European fixtures, so i dont know where they slot in

[Alf]

15 now we've rediscovered our form of last season.

[Caffeine]

I know this thread isn't for that but it would be useful if you slot in our fixtures from other competitions for context?

[ANFIELDGATES]

what happened to taking one game at a time?or am i been a boring fcuk???its always a bit of  a mine field predicting the next number of games,this is afterall the prem league.very optimistic would be 13,reality around 10-12.however play like we did yesterday and who knows how far we can go on an unbeaten run.

[N0rnIr0nRed]

Anything above 11 is good.

[lessthanmatt]

Take each game as it comes and get 15

[Halibut-Thumb]

I'm more confident against the non-elite teams than I have been for a long time with this squad, if we can put a run together I can see us, Chelsea and City pulling away from the pack.. The derby is an unknown quantity however after last season at Anfield I am confident, our style really seems to suit playing Everton these days.

[BassTunedToRed]

I reckon WBA at home with only two days rest after Basel away might be a tricky prospect...

Very capable of taking 15, but I think we'll get 13.

[PhaseOfPlay]

I reckon WBA at home with only two days rest after Basel away might be a tricky prospect...

Very capable of taking 15, but I think we'll get 13.

They haven't won a game yet, are in the bottom three, and are likely to stay there. Irvine is a good coach, but he might try to change things too soon in terms of bringing them to a more passing game. This team:

Mignolet
Flanagan---Toure---Lovren---Enrique
Can
Henderson---------Lallana
Markovic---Lambert---Coutinho

... should have more than enough to beat West Brom

I think we're well placed to go on winning league runs and also play strong teams in both the league and Champions League this season

[SMASHerano]

We should be getting 15 out of the next 5. But that's not how football works. I think 13.

[incredibleL4ever]

Sep 13 Aston Villa - Home
Sep 20 West Ham - Away
Sep 27 Everton - Home
Oct 4   West Brom - Home
Oct 19 QPR - Away

11 is minimum.
12 or 13 would be fine.
14 is not possible!
15 would be prefect. 
I expect 12.

[SMASHerano]

11 is minimum.
12 or 13 would be fine.
14 is not possible!
15 would be prefect. 
I expect 12.

Who do you expect us to lose against?

[s4ffy1]

Did the original thread last year not do 5 game blocks with a target of 10 points for each block - so we should include the first 3 games this season so we can measure how we are doing against our target of 10 points for each block of 5 games.


Southampton - 3
Man City - 0
Spurs - 3

Villa - 3
West Ham - 3

Should get 12 points from the first block of 5

[Aggers-Elbow]

After the performance yesterday, very confident we can get 15. Would be happy with 13 though as long as we don't drop points against the shite

[Gnurglan]

Sep 13
Aston Villa - Home
Sep 20
West Ham - Away
Sep 27
Everton - Home
Oct 4
West Brom - Home
Oct 19
QPR - Away

So far we've done well. We're ahead of schedule. We need to ensure it stays that way.

I see it as 12 + the Everton game. 12 points that we must get. One game we desperately want to win, but we can't count on it.

[Gnurglan]

Did the original thread last year not do 5 game blocks with a target of 10 points for each block - so we should include the first 3 games this season so we can measure how we are doing against our target of 10 points for each block of 5 games.


Southampton - 3
Man City - 0
Spurs - 3

Villa - 3
West Ham - 3

Should get 12 points from the first block of 5

Before, I would have said 9, with additional points from City and Spurs a bonus. We need to beat Vill and West Ham. No excuses really. So we should have 12 after the first five games. That's the expectation now.

[BassTunedToRed]

They haven't won a game yet, are in the bottom three, and are likely to stay there. Irvine is a good coach, but he might try to change things too soon in terms of bringing them to a more passing game. This team:

Mignolet
Flanagan---Toure---Lovren---Enrique
Can
Henderson---------Lallana
Markovic---Lambert---Coutinho

... should have more than enough to beat West Brom

I think we're well placed to go on winning league runs and also play strong teams in both the league and Champions League this season

Whilst I can't argue with what you say as such, to go on a five game winning run (to make six in total, with Spurs) is pretty rare. I know we're far better than we have been in recent times but we've only managed it once (albeit going to 11!) in the last five years.

We shall see ;-)

[Red-juvenated]

I think we will hammer them hammers this time around. They are flaky at the mo and just lost Diame, one of their better players. The 'slippery' one for me is Villa. If we beat them, we'll get 15 from the 5.

[shravan.satya]

I see only Villa and Everton getting something out of these games. Weinman (pardon the spelling) is in form so he could trouble us on the counter and Everton is never easy. The expect victories against QPR, West Ham and West Brom. 11 points if we play sensibly.

[PhaseOfPlay]

HAving watched their defensive ineptness against Chelsea, I could see a similar number of goals for us when we play them. They are moving from the Moyes-drilled defence to the Martinez un-drilled defence that we saw when he was at Wigan. They may cause us problems in their attack, but we will ruthlessly punish their defenders, I think. Howard will have to be on the toppest of top forms when they play us

[Crosby Nick]

and Everton is never easy.

Actually it often is.

Agree on paper it can be unpredictable but hopefully they'll work themselves into a frenzy again, believe they're better than us, pin their entire season on beating us...and then fail to turn up.

[Durlmints]

Actually it often is.

Agree on paper it can be unpredictable but hopefully they'll work themselves into a frenzy again, believe they're better than us, pin their entire season on beating us...and then fail to turn up.

Exactly! 

"Everton's last competitive victory over Liverpool at Anfield was in the Premier League on 27 September 1999."

They literally haven't done it this millennium.

[PhaseOfPlay]

Whilst I can't argue with what you say as such, to go on a five game winning run (to make six in total, with Spurs) is pretty rare. I know we're far better than we have been in recent times but we've only managed it once (albeit going to 11!) in the last five years.

We shall see ;-)

It might be rare for us, but it's not for a title winning team

I see this group of fixtures, up to Chelsea, as possibly our best chance of doing that this season without any "big" games to account for.

[Durlmints]

It might be rare for us, but it's not for a title winning team

I see this group of fixtures, up to Chelsea, as possibly our best chance of doing that this season without any "big" games to account for.

Yeah and to be honest I think we need to.

I can't see us getting anything out of Chelsea home or away.

[BassTunedToRed]

It might be rare for us, but it's not for a title winning team

The champions have only managed six (or more) in a row once, once and twice in the last three years... pretty rare ;-)

I guess it's what tends to separate the winners from the nearly men.

[PhaseOfPlay]

The champions have only managed six (or more) in a row once, once and twice in the last three years... pretty rare ;-)

I guess it's what tends to separate the winners from the nearly men.

I think we're on a crossed line.

I'm saying that over the last 10 years, the champions have had at least one run of 7 wins or more, in all but 2 years (09-10, and 10-11)

So it's actually rare for the champions to NOT have a winning run of 7 games or more, at least once per season.

[technicallyandtactically]

I actually started looking at this before the season started. I like to look at the season in groups of five, then you have the final three to determine your fate.
In general, ten points per five games gets you seventy-six points. This has been covered before; basically its a good marker for the top four.

Given our first 5 fixtures, I looked at our start and thought that ten points would be very solid indeed. My hopeful prediction was:

Southampton (H) 3 points

Man City (A) 0 points

Tottenham (A) 1 point

Aston Villa (H) 3 points

West Ham (A) 3 points

Given that we beat Tottenham away, I think our start has been great. If we can get those wins against Villa and West Ham, twelve from that first five would be an incredible start; from here its entirely possible. I'm not getting carried away though, West Ham were tricky away last year and we've got one point from Villa in the last two home games. I'd be satisfied with four points from the next two. Ten points from five keeps us on target, with a win against a top four rival.

tl;dr

Happy with 10, delighted with 12.

[trembles97]

Wonder how often Gerrard will feature...

[Il Capitano]

I'm gonna go with the realist's 15.

[arturo_belano]

We picked up 13 points from these fixtures last season. If we're to improve, we should be picking up 15. That would take our points differential from last season up to +5.

[Anywhichwayicant]

Easy to say 15, but in reality, winning five games in a row in the league isn't easy.

Anything below 12 and I think we've done very poorly.


Expecting 13.

[PhaseOfPlay]

Easy to say 15, but in reality, winning five games in a row in the league isn't easy.

Anything below 12 and I think we've done very poorly.


Expecting 13.

It's not, but if we want to be challenging for the league again, we have to be capable of doing it.

[Sir Psycho Sexy]

15 is always the aim but how many would I be happy with? Tough to say, because losing any of the next 5 would be disappointing unlike, losing to City away which is still disappointing but also probable. I don't think we should be losing any, Everton at home is a place where they always come undone. However, 2 draws are capable as well. And we could avoid defeat and still finish with 11, which isn't good enough.

All in all then - 13.

[LFCsupporter]

We'll destroy Everton. I wouldn't worry about that game at all. West Ham away after the Ludogorets match seems the trickiest, but I think we'll cope. 15/15.

[duvva 💅]

They haven't won a game yet, are in the bottom three, and are likely to stay there. Irvine is a good coach, but he might try to change things too soon in terms of bringing them to a more passing game. This team:

Mignolet
Flanagan---Toure---Lovren---Enrique
Can
Henderson---------Lallana
Markovic---Lambert---Coutinho

... should have more than enough to beat West Brom

I think we're well placed to go on winning league runs and also play strong teams in both the league and Champions League this season

This is for me where things will come unstuck, if we change more than half our team to play the supposed weaker teams it's usually a recipe for disaster and only interrupts rhythm and consistency. I know we should be able to get away with it and that team isn't exactly bad, but it just doesn't work that way in reality. Like this thread if you look at those 5 games one at a time then we would expect 15 points but the other factors such as playing away in Europe etc mean dropping points is more likely, but unless was a call for it tactically or if a player genuinely hasn't recovered from the midweek game then I think we're far more likely to keep winning playing the strongest available team rather than making this many changes

[PhaseOfPlay]

This is for me where things will come unstuck, if we change more than half our team to play the supposed weaker teams it's usually a recipe for disaster and only interrupts rhythm and consistency. I know we should be able to get away with it and that team isn't exactly bad, but it just doesn't work that way in reality.

Chelsea and United have been doing it for years.

Like this thread if you look at those 5 games one at a time then we would expect 15 points but the other factors such as playing away in Europe etc mean dropping points is more likely, but unless was a call for it tactically or if a player genuinely hasn't recovered from the midweek game then I think we're far more likely to keep winning playing the strongest available team rather than making this many changes

It's not about recovering from the previous game. It's about taking the next game into account. Otherwise, you run players into the ground and they get injured at some point anyway, and you have to change anyway.

We bought quality of depth specifically so we could cope in more than one competition. If we're not going to then use that depth, then Rodgers is not doing his job.

[The Playmaker]

The biggest positive for me is that we've only ever lost back-to-back league games once under Brendan Rodgers. When you consider that Brendan is now in his third season at the club, I think that is pretty impressive and shows how consistent we've been under him. Even though we have the Champions League starting soon, I think that we can take 13 points from the next five games. I really do. We've got more depth in our squad this season to cope and we can rotate too without losing too much quality. 15 points from the next five would be heaven of course and I think the team can do that but if we got 13 I think most would be over the moon.

[duvva 💅]

Chelsea and United have been doing it for years.


It's not about recovering from the previous game. It's about taking the next game into account. Otherwise, you run players into the ground and they get injured at some point anyway, and you have to change anyway.

We bought quality of depth specifically so we could cope in more than one competition. If we're not going to then use that depth, then Rodgers is not doing his job.

I don't disagree that we have more depth than we've had for a long time, my point was that changing more than half a teams worth of players and for those players to be of even slightly less ability than the ones they're replacing is asking for trouble. Chelsea etc haven't always got away with it either. I do understand utilising those players where necessary and ensuring players are rested when they need it but if you need to change 5 or more players rather than perhaps rotating 2/3 even when playing the weaker teams that is likely to be where we drop points