Topic: It's just a battle for the order of the first 4 spots now between 5 teams...

[the_red_pill]

Bogey team? I don't know what time period you're using to determine they're our bogey team, but I always thought we've got a decent record against them......we've smashed them a few times in my memory and all they've really got in response is the double they did over us last season.

I base my view first and foremost on the actual game, extreme I know. They were absolutely terrible in the first half, truly shit. 2nd half we seemed ponderous and out of ideas. Even then, we still didn't look like conceding in open play. Mignolet then pulled off a great save from a corner, and Kolo had a brain fart.

To be clear, I can accept us having an off game, its to be expeted. No squad can maintain top form throughout a season. This is why it annoys me when people bang on about bad results as if they're the end of the world.

But its pretty clear to me that West Brom didn't earn the point through good play, we gave it to them.

It isn't a matter of earning a point through good play. It's whether you can take advantage of mistakes as well as you would initiate good play too. You can defend for 90mins without leaving your half much, register 25% possession and score 6 and it would have nothing to do with whether you earned anything. You won the match cause you did what was necessary- pounce on mistakes. Some teams force mistakes, some teams wait on mistakes. WBA earned their draw, cause they had the foresight to determine the opportune moment to pounce and force a mistake. It was not a mistake to pass to Kolo, but it was brilliant to have the anticipation to force a mistake off him. We didn't gift them anything. They worked the mistake.

I'm sure your familiar with Liverpool vs. Barcelona in 2006/2007? We didn't earn our win through good play. We were shite and punished Barca. LFC vs. WBA was not at the same level, but it helps demo the point. There are tons of examples.

[Red_Irishman]

76 Actually. It comes from Rodgers. Straight from the horses mouth, BUT 76 is projected to be the average number of points needed for nr. 4 anyway, so Rodgers got it from there.: http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/brendan-rodgers-insists-liverpool-are-still-performing-above-expectations-2014-1435049

How is 76 the average??

The last 10 years were the following points needed for 4th: 73, 69, 68, 70, 72, 76, 67, 61, 60, 60

Thats an average of 67.6?

(Excuse me, just seen you'd said 'projected')

[Halcyon Lissome]

Im sure i heard on Monday morning that Opta had us as 20th in the league for making mistakes that cost us a goal

If we can get the 2 pts per game back on track im sure we will be fine with 76 pts

No, we're 1st in the league for mistakes leading to a goal (29). It's been more of a case of us shooting ourselves in the foot than the opposition deserving to take away anything from our games.

[Roady]

No, we're 1st in the league for mistakes leading to a goal (29). It's been more of a case of us shooting ourselves in the foot than the opposition deserving to take away anything from our games.

so the opposition dont deserve to take anything from the game if they punish a mistake? Mistakes are there to be punished.I get what your saying though,sort of

[Haemoglobin]

No, we're 1st in the league for mistakes leading to a goal (29). It's been more of a case of us shooting ourselves in the foot than the opposition deserving to take away anything from our games.

^ To be fair, although it doesn't quite read right they way he put it, I think that's what he meant - as in 'relegation form' for nobbling ourselves with costly errors. I could be wrong.

I'm not surprised at all that we're leading the way on that front! 

[Halcyon Lissome]

so the opposition dont deserve to take anything from the game if they punish a mistake? Mistakes are there to be punished.I get what your saying though,sort of

No, they take their chances and they get their points. In that sense, they're getting what they deserve.

I don't think that should detract from the balance of the game and how we play in general. Football is a game that can be decided by 1-2 moments (mistakes) but the scoreline is not necessarily the arbiter of the strength of a team/performance - although it is the only statistic that actually counts.

I think we've been inordinately sloppy though; and it's something we usually wouldn't do - be the worst team in the league in terms of mistakes leading to goals. Even if we were average, 10th, midway, we'd be right in the title fight. And I think our play has actually deserved that kind of ranking.

And while I'm sure other teams can feel they could have done better, having watched a lot of the games myself I wouldn't agree - of course I'm biased being a Liverpool fan but I think it's a bit deeper than that.

On Whoscored.com for example we're the highest rated English team with a team rating of 7.15 which indicates that a lot of the good things we've done have been undone by some stupid mistakes, and hence we're 4th right now.

[Henderson Our Hero]

Let us be honest -

The biggest threats is Spurs and the Mancs.

I think Everton has played better but now with Lukaku out and Miralas looking tieard and winded up by the smallest obstacle, I can see them start to draw even more  then they have done.

But the mancs is allways the mancs, despite them have Moyes as manager. Spurs is really Hit n Miss, but they wont grab many points form the top flights, so if we can beat them and get away with a draw at OT, well, I can really see us make it.

Our biggest obstacle is Chelsea at home in the end of April. It just feels like they will be so in for the title then and I am pretty sure they will be out of CL at that point.

[turkish kopite]

Let us be honest -

The biggest threats is Spurs and the Mancs.

I think Everton has played better but now with Lukaku out and Miralas looking tieard and winded up by the smallest obstacle, I can see them start to draw even more  then they have done.

But the mancs is allways the mancs, despite them have Moyes as manager. Spurs is really Hit n Miss, but they wont grab many points form the top flights, so if we can beat them and get away with a draw at OT, well, I can really see us make it.

Our biggest obstacle is Chelsea at home in the end of April. It just feels like they will be so in for the title then and I am pretty sure they will be out of CL at that point.

are? 

[Solomon Grundy]

Let us be honest -

The biggest threats is Spurs and the Mancs.

I think Everton has played better but now with Lukaku out and Miralas looking tieard and winded up by the smallest obstacle, I can see them start to draw even more  then they have done.

But the mancs is allways the mancs, despite them have Moyes as manager. Spurs is really Hit n Miss, but they wont grab many points form the top flights, so if we can beat them and get away with a draw at OT, well, I can really see us make it.

Our biggest obstacle is Chelsea at home in the end of April. It just feels like they will be so in for the title then and I am pretty sure they will be out of CL at that point.

Disagree. Whether we like it or not I think Everton are a better team unit and have a better manager then either of those two clubs. And even though Lukaku is out they have Barkley, Mirallas and Deulofeu who is about to come back for them, who are more then capable of creating and making goals. They imo are our biggest threat for 4th spot.

[RK7]

Disagree. Whether we like it or not I think Everton are a better team unit and have a better manager then either of those two clubs. And even though Lukaku is out they have Barkley, Mirallas and Deulofeu who is about to come back for them, who are more then capable of creating and making goals. They imo are our biggest threat for 4th spot.

I would rather see Everton take the points of Spurs this weekend, I just think Everton will draw to many games as the season goes on. Spurs have all the weapons to take fourth, the danger is if they click.

[Jookie]

Let us be honest -

The biggest threats is Spurs and the Mancs.

I think Everton has played better but now with Lukaku out and Miralas looking tieard and winded up by the smallest obstacle, I can see them start to draw even more  then they have done.

But the mancs is allways the mancs, despite them have Moyes as manager. Spurs is really Hit n Miss, but they wont grab many points form the top flights, so if we can beat them and get away with a draw at OT, well, I can really see us make it.

Our biggest obstacle is Chelsea at home in the end of April. It just feels like they will be so in for the title then and I am pretty sure they will be out of CL at that point.

I wouldn't discount Everton. They've got players coming back and a couple of new signings who might have an impact. Traore could be decent for them and provide them with goals in Lukaku's absence.

[Anfield Ed]

I wouldn't discount anyone just yet.

[bigbear]

I would rather see Everton take the points of Spurs this weekend, I just think Everton will draw to many games as the season goes on. Spurs have all the weapons to take fourth, the danger is if they click.

Agreed. Draw is the ideal result but I don't see Everton lasting the pace so probably them winning is best.

Bottom line though is that we need to look after our own business. If we win tomorrow we won't give a shit what happens behind us.

[Desi Kopite]

I would rather see Everton take the points of Spurs this weekend, I just think Everton will draw to many games as the season goes on. Spurs have all the weapons to take fourth, the danger is if they click.

I agree with this, I can see Everton fade away and Spurs seem like they're just waiting to pounce.  Draw for me.

[ElstonGunn]

People laying down 75 points as the benchmark for 4th. Where is this stat coming from? Is it this the projected number for this season?

Really think it will be lower, around 70-72

Here are a couple of analyses--one in-depth, one simple--that conclude 4th should be around 75 points. That said, they're projections based on how things have gone so far, and because we are the ones in 4th place, they're in large part based on how we've done so far . Part of the reason the number is so high, particularly in Michael Caley's, is that it thinks very highly of Liverpool. If we drop off some, we might still be able to get it at 72ish.

[ElstonGunn]

http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2014/2/6/5384088/premier-league-table-projections-stats-analysis-tottenham-hotspur

(And that's hardly the only one.)

[Pistolero]

Thank fuck for that!......the Mancs only have 3% T4%...and we're on 85%...and here's me worrying...

[Mr_Shane]

You probably are right in not discounting anyone. However, if one wants to make a projection..... then almost everything apart from the names Manchester United, Juan Mata, Van Persie and Rooney suggests that the odds of Manchester United are only slightly better than Newcastle for fourth.

The forms of Spurs and Everton are also much better than Manchester United, so if one wants to attempt to make a prediction, the threat is going to come mainly from those two

[Kenny Coat]

You have to assume that City and Chelsea will win this weekend. That would put them on 56 points.

I think we will beat Arsenal today which will put us on 50 points with Arsenal on 55 points.

You have to take each round of fixtures as they come but after today, I'd say we are right bang in the Title race never mind 4th.

With Fulham and Swansea (both clubs in disarray) up next.

[carl5363]

If we lose today, then anyone targeting anything more than 4th is in dream world...but if we win, I'll certainly be aiming higher.

[Fromola]

Tottenham aren't a threat under Sherwood, the guy's a clueless idiot.

It'll be United and Everton that challenge. We need to perform better than last week and the shambolic Villa game. If we're as inconsistent as recent games we'll miss out.

[Pistolero]

here's a projection...the Mancs, Bitters, Spurs and us will all be in the race for 4th...

[rickardinho1]

According to that stat the Mancs have a 14% of making 5th, and only 3% for 4th. Seems really low to me but im happy with that!

[Trendisnotdestiny]

http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2014/2/6/5384088/premier-league-table-projections-stats-analysis-tottenham-hotspur

(And that's hardly the only one.)

What I would not give for this table to be an outcome! 

[Hollywood Balls]

Right. All bets are on hold.

[Anywhichwayicant]

[LFC when it suits]

Are people still looking at 4th? We are going for the title at the moment. Not 4th. We are more than good enough to be winning the title this season.

[Ciara (with a capital "C")]

We should rename this thread to 'Cementing a CL place whilst keeping a close eye on those above us. '

[Chakan]

Title needs changing.

'Realistically, is it just a battle for 1st spot with 3 other teams now?"

[Snail]

Hmm.

[LFC when it suits]

This was the best possible way to starts Aresnal's ridiculous run of tough fixtures. Arsenal will capitulate over the coming months.

[PhaseOfPlay]

I said this back in December, when we were top of the league:

For people doubting our chances of a title challenge, against the might of City, Chelsea and Arsenal -


Remember Derby in 1972.

Nobody expected them to win the league, and they were a team of cobbled together players led by a charismatic manager and a 38 year old sweeper who had been part of one of the best teams of the century. And that was against the might of Leeds, Liverpool, and a double-winning Arsenal.

It can be done.

I think we're dark horses. We're not being judged on whether we win the league or not, as our real objective is top four. But as long as we stay within 6 points of whoever is top, with 3-4 games to go, we're in with a chance.

[peachybum]

Still in a real battle to hold 4th. Need more than a 3 point cushion with 13 games to go before it's nailed on. Anything could still happen. Don't understand how some think it's a certainty. We aren't exactly detached from our rivals and we're dodgy away from home.

[Adeemo]

Are people still looking at 4th?

Yeah, we can't get carried away until we improve our away record, would anyone really be surprised to see us drop points at Fulham? Also, we've still got Chelsea, City and Spurs to come to Anfield and we go to Southampton and Man United, we'll ultimately drop a fair few points over the course of those fixtures and that's without all the other teams we need to play, especially away from home. It's still all about 4th place.

[Samie]

Still in a real battle to hold 4th. Need more than a 3 point cushion with 13 games to go before it's nailed on. Anything could still happen.

 

you just can't help it can you?

[Adeemo]

 

you just can't help it can you?

He's spot on.

[peachybum]

you just can't help it can you?

You think a 3 point gap with 13 games to go makes 4th a certainty?

We're slight favorites. Nothing more at this stage.

[The Gigi]

He's spot on.

Agree too. Yes it was an absolutely ecstatic performance, but to be sure to get CL football next season, we will need to be more consistent away from home or beat all the teams that will come to Anfield. That's not easy at all, but I'm sure the boys can do it if they keep their concentration and level of performance up.

[spider-neil]

 

you just can't help it can you?

Nothing wrong with what he said. Our aim is still 4th, anything above and beyond that is a bonus.

[rickardinho1]

Statement win. Pressure is on everton, spurs, and united more than anyone now.