Topic: Space exploration thread - Unexpected Rapid Disassembly in the launch area.

[Alan_X]

To me that's the most interesting part, because one learns from failures. Understanding what caused a failure is sometimes half the work on the path to getting it fixed.

The main lesson from failure is that it's better to do the engineering properly in the first place. Especially when life safety is involved. Starship is intended for manned flight and I fail to see when the "learning from failure" phase flips over into "we have solved all of the issues" phase.

[WhereAngelsPlay]

He doesn't have to worry about safety in Florida though does he.

[TepidT2O]

The main lesson from failure is that it's better to do the engineering properly in the first place. Especially when life safety is involved. Starship is intended for manned flight and I fail to see when the "learning from failure" phase flips over into "we have solved all of the issues" phase.

They aren’t planning on manned launches until probably 200 flights though. 

Given that the Falcon launch system is pretty much the most reliable ever developed, I’d suggest their methods have at least some validity

[TepidT2O]

He doesn't have to worry about safety in Florida though does he.

Not when he’s in Texas, no.

[WhereAngelsPlay]

Not when he’s in Texas, no.

The bastard.

[farawayred]

The main lesson from failure is that it's better to do the engineering properly in the first place. Especially when life safety is involved. Starship is intended for manned flight and I fail to see when the "learning from failure" phase flips over into "we have solved all of the issues" phase.

You can only engineer properly for what you know though, the rest you learn from failures. You can try to over engineer, but that only works in trivial cases. Very often you could fool yourself that you know what you're doing using previous experiences, but a new factor could turn out to be critical. I've said it before in this thread - learning from failures from a test-to-fail approach is the fastest way to acquire best-quality knowledge. I've lived in the failure analysis world for about 15 years, still get involved now and then 7 years later, and I don't know of a better way to approach technology development projects in the realm of the unknown. This is a normal process in any technology. Take the semiconductor industry, for example. We are so used to getting a new smart phone, and new laptop a new gadget every so often that we take it for granted that the companies will just develop that for us. But before a product makes it to the market, the company goes through uncharted territories and fail many, many times before a product is ready (sometimes even not quite ready).

This has nothing to do with cutting corners, if that's what you mean, in which case I would agree with you.

When it comes to human life the stakes are much higher, obviously, but the process is the same. Risk has to be reduced to acceptable levels before a human climbs on board Starship. But it will, and probably much faster than NASA would do it. And the acceptable risk is not a quantifiable entity, it stems from the warm gut feeling of politicians and decision makers. For example, if it looks like a human flight might be ready in 5 years, the government may delay it more to avoid a potential embarrassment. But if the Chinese would be ready to do it in 5 years, I'd bet my house that the Starship will carry one in 4-4.5 years. During the Cold War space race a lot of risk was deemed acceptable. People even died, which was attributed to the cause, and the public accepted it. It was even worse on the Soviet side.

[Red Beret]

I guess when you're testing to fail you have a pretty good idea of where failure might occur. The problem is when you're not testing to fail and it still fails.

[PaulF]

I think I heard on the radio that the 'philosophy' is to set a target, and when they feel they have a 50/50 chance of achieving that target, then launch.  They sort of know they won't hit the target, but feel they will figure out faster what needs to be fixed by launching and analysing the results than by modelling it first, and engineering it that way.
My worry would be that if they don't do enough iterations then something that doesn't happen during the 'test' launches then scuppers a real launch, with people on board.
That said the old fashioned method of analysing everything up front and engineering it that way wasn't infalliable.

[Andy @ Allerton!]

Found this really interesting.

Also absolutely mind-blowing - if structures like this exist, do they do anything - could they do anything?

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/-kTe0xRAU1w" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/-kTe0xRAU1w</a>

[TepidT2O]

Makes sense that. How could we assume the universe is uniform enough to make that assumption?

[Red Beret]

Peregrine 1 due for launch, the first commercial lunar landing attempt.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2024/jan/05/peregrine-mission-almost-ready-for-attempt-to-put-us-landers-back-on-the-moon

[Red Beret]

well, so much for that....

A private moon mission that blasted into space on Monday appeared to be in jeopardy after suffering a “critical loss of propellant” and operators said they are considering alternatives for the mission.

After lift-off on Monday, the Peregrine Mission One (PM1) – which carries a piece of technology developed by UK scientists – experienced an “anomaly” that would have prevented the lander from achieving a stable position pointing towards the sun, according to Astrobotic, the US firm behind the project.

While this was fixed, the company established that it was being caused by a failure in the propulsion system, and further investigation revealed the craft was losing propellant.

Across two separate statements, the company said: “We have successfully re-established communications with Peregrine after the known communication blackout. The team’s improvised manoeuvre was successful in reorienting Peregrine’s solar array towards the sun. We are now charging the battery.

“The Mission Anomaly Board continues to evaluate the data we’re receiving and is assessing the status of what we believe to be the root of the anomaly: a failure within the propulsion system.

“Unfortunately, it appears the failure within the propulsion system is causing a critical loss of propellant. The team is working to try and stabilise this loss, but given the situation, we have prioritised maximizing the science and data we can capture. We are currently assessing what alternative mission profiles may be feasible at this time.”

The lander carrying Nasa scientific equipment initially launched successfully on the Vulcan Centaur rocket from Cape Canaveral.

Full article: https://www.theguardian.com/science/2024/jan/08/nasa-peregrine-1-vulcan-rocket-carrying-nasa-moon-lander-lifts-off-in-florida

[farawayred]

That's very regrettable... An artist friend of mine, Ioannis Michaloudis, who is the only person to make aerogel sculptures (worth googling that!), has lost a project of sorts. He participated in the MoonArk project, which was supposed to be a representation of Earth art record on the moon.

[Red Beret]

They seem to have some hope of getting some science from the project, but I'm not sure what. The lander is carrying a few rovers. The odds of the vehicle being able to touch down must surely be extremely low at this point.

Maybe they can adopt a slower, low energy transfer to lunar orbit? Use the fuel they have and then try to rely on the lander's propulsion system somehow?

[farawayred]

Hard to say without knowing any details. If they are using propellant, maybe the landing propellant allocation is also affected...

[Red Beret]

Hard to say without knowing any details. If they are using propellant, maybe the landing propellant allocation is also affected...

I must admit, I didn't read the whole article. I was under the impression that it was the booster that was leaking, but maybe it's the lander itself.

[farawayred]

Peregrine One will experience "rapid disassembly" (per the new thread title) in Earth's atmosphere. But the artist I mentioned above would love to see "fireworks" or meteor shower"...

On a much better note, Japan's Sniper landed on the Moon. Cross fingers for radio contact!

Solar panels not working, but battery is alive for now.

Live press conference now:
https://twitter.com/JAXA_en/status/1748345554655228118?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

[Red Beret]

Yeah, the Japanese probe seems to have toppled onto its side after landing, putting its solar panels in the shade. There's some hope the probe will reactivate in a couple of weeks when the sun rises on that side of the spacecraft. I'm not too sure myself though.

[TepidT2O]

Going to the moon is unbelievably hard …

Still.

[TepidT2O]

Ingenuity has lost touch with its he,I opted during its 72nd of 5 planned flights.

A bit sad on one hand, but on the other, just a mind blowing achievement

Getting that onto mars and it flying… that’s one of humanity's greatest achievements

[farawayred]

Ingenuity has lost touch with its he,I opted during its 72nd of 5 planned flights.

A bit sad on one hand, but on the other, just a mind blowing achievement

Getting that onto mars and it flying… that’s one of humanity's greatest achievements

This is what was posted internally last regarding Ingenuity:
Ingenuity Flight 72 Anomaly: The helicopter executed a planned "popup" flight to 12 meters. During its descent real-time telemetry to the rover stopped just prior to touchdown. The post-flight communication session was unsuccessful. The team uplinked a two-sol plan to execute a communication search over the weekend, which will inform the path forward.

Cross fingers...

Considering that the Ingenuity mission was only four flights, and that there was (somewhat) serious consideration of terminating the mission back then... I doff my hat to the team.

[TepidT2O]

Yeah, simply a mind blowing achievement to do that.

Fingers crossed that something works out.

[TepidT2O]

This is a view from Mars.

https://twitter.com/theplanetaryguy/status/1749499416333947387?s=61&t=IBM61bzNciP9yNB3C-HiEg

It’s the transit of Deimos across the sun!!  Incredible, just incredible

[[new username under construction]]

This is a view from Mars.

https://twitter.com/theplanetaryguy/status/1749499416333947387?s=61&t=IBM61bzNciP9yNB3C-HiEg

It’s the transit of Deimos across the sun!!  Incredible, just incredible

You can't fool me, that's just a cue ball

[farawayred]

Yeah, simply a mind blowing achievement to do that.

Fingers crossed that something works out.

The latest:
"The team has reestablished contact with the heli..."

[TepidT2O]

The latest:
"The team has reestablished contact with the heli..."

Yay!

[Red Beret]

Great news!

Tough little bugger, this 'copter!

[farawayred]

Tough little bugger indeed. The copter's time will come to an end eventually, and it's not quite out of the woods yet, but it long survived its initially intended purpose. The team lost contact shortly before touchdown on flight 72. Then they forced it to a "long listen" command, which is the way they reestablished contact. That suggests the helicopter's timing was way off (reset?). Now that that's fixed, they are trying to locate it. Its images download was delayed on arrival due to a totally unrelated DSN issue, so they are scheduled for today's window. Once they see the images, it might be easier to locate it, or at least they will focus the search to a much narrower area. The plan is to do a 50 rpm test first, then a high speed test, and we'd know more about the state of affairs. I hope all the blades are in tact!

[TepidT2O]

RIP

https://twitter.com/nasa/status/1750604632194252973?s=61&t=IBM61bzNciP9yNB3C-HiEg


Damaged rotor blades.

It’s flown its last.   One of mankind's great achievements

[farawayred]

Just came to post this. RIP little bugger!

A curious fact for those that might have missed it - the first flight on Mars carries a remnant of the first flight on Earth. A piece of fabric from Kitty Hawk, the Wright brothers airplane that first took to the sky in 1903, was carried by Ingenuity and now has "flown" on Mars too.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I did suspect the blades... The sad news:
https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/after-three-years-on-mars-nasas-ingenuity-helicopter-mission-ends

After Three Years on Mars, NASA’s Ingenuity Helicopter Mission Ends
Jan. 25, 2024

NASA has proven powered, controlled flight is possible on other worlds, just as the Wright brothers proved it was possible on Earth.

NASA’s history-making Ingenuity Mars Helicopter has ended its mission at the Red Planet after surpassing expectations and making dozens more flights than planned. While the helicopter remains upright and in communication with ground controllers, imagery of its Jan. 18 flight sent to Earth this week indicates one or more of its rotor blades sustained damage during landing and it is no longer capable of flight.

Originally designed as a technology demonstration to perform up to five experimental test flights over 30 days, the first aircraft on another world operated from the Martian surface for almost three years, performed 72 flights, and flew more than 14 times farther than planned while logging more than two hours of total flight time.

“The historic journey of Ingenuity, the first aircraft on another planet, has come to end,” said NASA Administrator Bill Nelson. “That remarkable helicopter flew higher and farther than we ever imagined and helped NASA do what we do best – make the impossible, possible. Through missions like Ingenuity, NASA is paving the way for future flight in our solar system and smarter, safer human exploration to Mars and beyond.”

[Red Beret]

That's heartbreaking. RIP you little bugger.

[PaulF]

Does this mean mars has some sort of atmosphere?

[TepidT2O]

Does this mean mars has some sort of atmosphere?

Err yes. About 1% of ours

[PaulF]

Cool thanks. I was wondering how the heck anything could fly without atmosphere.

[jymbojetset]

Thought this was worth a post - didn’t know this was ongoing tbf.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-68377730

[thaddeus]

Thought this was worth a post - didn’t know this was ongoing tbf.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-68377730

It's a bit wild that it's taken nearly 55 years for a commercial enterprise to achieve what the US government did with what would now be considered archaic technology.  From reading the article the mission was also saved by taking advantage of some experimental NASA "ranging" lasers after the primary ones failed.

Presumably the costs are many, many times cheaper now though.  The experiments don't sound like game changers but incremental steps at a relatively cheap cost is a good thing.

Being very petty I'm pleased that Elon Musk doesn't have his fingerprints anywhere near this one so can't try to claim credit for it 

[[new username under construction]]

It's a bit wild that it's taken nearly 55 years for a commercial enterprise to achieve what the US government did with what would now be considered archaic technology.  From reading the article the mission was also saved by taking advantage of some experimental NASA "ranging" lasers after the primary ones failed.

Presumably the costs are many, many times cheaper now though.  The experiments don't sound like game changers but incremental steps at a relatively cheap cost is a good thing.

Being very petty I'm pleased that Elon Musk doesn't have his fingerprints anywhere near this one so can't try to claim credit for it 

Some horrible person should really give him a load of stick on Twitter about it

[TepidT2O]

It has however landed on its side……
Ooops

[WhereAngelsPlay]

I thought it went up on one of the dickheads rockets.

[[new username under construction]]

It has however landed on its side……
Ooops

Sideways pics are fine, I have rotate in MS Paint