Author Topic: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread (Read 155875 times)

Red Beret · « **Reply #960 on:** July 31, 2013, 06:33:40 pm »

Quote from: BazC on February 25, 2013, 06:55:05 pm

I probably wouldn't mess around with CFDs/spreadbetting if you don't have the cash to risk. Or, at least just put small positions on after calculating an "equivalent" position in the cash share. And they wouldn't lock you in, you could have a stop loss/close the position to mitigate it; the value of the contract changes as the underlying does. Be very wary of the size you trade though- you can seriously leverage yourself up with them and they can be painful if it moves against you.

Okay, I'm at the point where I'm thinking of dipping my toe into CFD's. My funds aren't great though. Is there a minimum investment amount?

EDIT: I found a few sites that may interest... Seems you can invest as little as £50, which would do me fine, although that seems to be just the deposit in this example, so I don't know where the final price would leave me...

http://www.cityindex.co.uk/cfd-trading/what-is-cfd-trading.aspx

http://www.intertrader.com/cfds.html

BazC · « **Reply #961 on:** August 1, 2013, 12:03:34 am »

If things move quickly against you they'll be ringing you up to deposit more cash to maintain whatever minimum deposit they require for your trade.

Azi · « **Reply #962 on:** August 3, 2013, 04:06:12 pm »

looking for some advice, basically place i work is a privately listed company and am looking to buy shares in them work has a scheme where you can buy them through work but theirs a limit on how many you can buy which is linked to your salary eg if my salary is 30k i can buy 3k worth of shares in a year but id rather buy them independently as I'm looking to buy more just for the fact theirs been a huge drop in the share price after a poor financial year, is this ok for me to do this or would this be classed as insider trading so to speak because i know the shares will eventually rocket up ?

Red Beret · « **Reply #963 on:** August 3, 2013, 04:54:19 pm »

Quote from: BazC on August 1, 2013, 12:03:34 am

If things move quickly against you they'll be ringing you up to deposit more cash to maintain whatever minimum deposit they require for your trade.

Damn, I doubt I could maintain the level of investment. Where's a dwarven ring when I need one??

gazzam1963 · « **Reply #964 on:** August 3, 2013, 09:36:15 pm »

Quote from: Azi on August 3, 2013, 04:06:12 pm

looking for some advice, basically place i work is a privately listed company and am looking to buy shares in them work has a scheme where you can buy them through work but theirs a limit on how many you can buy which is linked to your salary eg if my salary is 30k i can buy 3k worth of shares in a year but id rather buy them independently as I'm looking to buy more just for the fact theirs been a huge drop in the share price after a poor financial year, is this ok for me to do this or would this be classed as insider trading so to speak because i know the shares will eventually rocket up ?

Sounds like a sharesave scheme where you can contribute £250 per month max into either a three or five year plan . You usually get a 20% discount on the price of the share on a set date . Sharesave is a win win situation if after the saving period the share price is below what was quoted at the beginning you have the option to take the cash and not lose out . If the shares have gone up your onto a winner

Or We have a similar one called a share investment plan ( sip ) check if it's similar as you don't pay tax and national insurance , and no capital gains at the end . We also get matching ones which become ours after 3 years . We need to hold them for five years for the capital gains and no income tax or ni to pay on selling .

srs507 · « **Reply #965 on:** August 5, 2013, 10:41:18 pm »

Quote from: kavah on June 14, 2013, 12:42:28 pm

It's all off the radar here.

Any tips ?

Heh, as a licensed securities broker (finally can say that, I passed my exam today!) I still can't comment. Soz mate!

Anyway, on to the next 3 exams I have to take to be fully set for work.

Alf · « **Reply #966 on:** August 6, 2013, 12:23:06 am »

Quote from: Azi on August 3, 2013, 04:06:12 pm

looking for some advice, basically place i work is a privately listed company and am looking to buy shares in them work has a scheme where you can buy them through work but theirs a limit on how many you can buy which is linked to your salary eg if my salary is 30k i can buy 3k worth of shares in a year but id rather buy them independently as I'm looking to buy more just for the fact theirs been a huge drop in the share price after a poor financial year, is this ok for me to do this or would this be classed as insider trading so to speak because i know the shares will eventually rocket up ?

If you work for a Private Company will you not having difficulty buying shares without going through the company secretary?

kavah · « **Reply #967 on:** August 6, 2013, 01:42:20 am »

Quote from: srs507 on August 5, 2013, 10:41:18 pm

Heh, as a licensed securities broker (finally can say that, I passed my exam today!) I still can't comment. Soz mate!

Anyway, on to the next 3 exams I have to take to be fully set for work.

Well in. Don't forget - buy low sell high.

bryanod · « **Reply #968 on:** August 7, 2013, 09:18:37 am »

Quote from: Azi on August 3, 2013, 04:06:12 pm

looking for some advice, basically place i work is a privately listed company and am looking to buy shares in them work has a scheme where you can buy them through work but theirs a limit on how many you can buy which is linked to your salary eg if my salary is 30k i can buy 3k worth of shares in a year but id rather buy them independently as I'm looking to buy more just for the fact theirs been a huge drop in the share price after a poor financial year, is this ok for me to do this or would this be classed as insider trading so to speak because i know the shares will eventually rocket up ?

Doubling down your financial capital on your human capital probably is not wise.

What if there is another bad financial year, job cuts and share price drops further, you lose your job at the same time as losing your investment.

The correlation is 1, diversify instead, by all means take advantage of the tax schemes gazzam talking about but you should think long and hard before lumping more in.

And you don't "know the shares will eventually rocket up" ya lunatic!

JP-65 · « **Reply #969 on:** August 7, 2013, 10:34:55 am »

I'd be careful about stock markets for the next year or two.

We're now 4 years & 5 months into this bull market and it's got 7-8 months left, maximum, before we see a major correction. The 7-8 months will be very choppy, with some significant swings, and won't be for the faint hearted.

The major correction, which will come in and around March/April 2014 will be very deep, 35-50%

Azi · « **Reply #970 on:** August 8, 2013, 01:32:03 am »

Quote from: bryanod on August 7, 2013, 09:18:37 am

Doubling down your financial capital on your human capital probably is not wise.

What if there is another bad financial year, job cuts and share price drops further, you lose your job at the same time as losing your investment.

The correlation is 1, diversify instead, by all means take advantage of the tax schemes gazzam talking about but you should think long and hard before lumping more in.

And you don't "know the shares will eventually rocket up" ya lunatic!

maybe but right now the share price is rock bottom so to speak even if it was to go back its average from the last few years i would make a decent profit as for another bad financial year i know the reason why we had a poor year and if am honest id pretty much guarantee our share prices will increase again by September when our new deals are announced and what we're working on now will blow our competitors away when its made public,

warkstache · « **Reply #971 on:** August 8, 2013, 04:18:59 am »

Quote from: JP-65 on August 7, 2013, 10:34:55 am

I'd be careful about stock markets for the next year or two.

We're now 4 years & 5 months into this bull market and it's got 7-8 months left, maximum, before we see a major correction. The 7-8 months will be very choppy, with some significant swings, and won't be for the faint hearted.

The major correction, which will come in and around March/April 2014 will be very deep, 35-50%

That's a bit Doug Kass

For what it's worth, a correction is not only possible, but probable. Your ~5 year timeframe above would means a 35-50% correction from today's levels would put us back to around 1100-850, or the two major support longterm support levels.

Even though that seems possible technically, it boggles the mind fundamentally. A return to the depths of the Great Recession - March 2009 levels - shouldn't really be possible for a variety of reasons which I won't go into here.

But.

Expanding the outlook from 5 years back to 15 years

suggests that objects in the mirror are closer than they appear.

I do have one question. Why did you put your prediction as far out as March/April 2014? The longterm H&S looks to be broken even now. If you give it another 9 months, this current move up would be reinforced. The breakout through the last two long term resistance levels around 1500 - already ~13% higher at 1700 - will be even higher by then.

JP-65 · « **Reply #972 on:** August 8, 2013, 08:11:03 am »

Doug's OK, I trade thoughts with him a lot, he's just got this year wrong

We'll max out at 1800 +/- 20 points before we go into a bear market, and back to 900-1000

Your second chart really says it all, markets swing & correct, this one is no different, and it won't come near 600's like it did in 2008/9, it's more like the levels of 2000/2

JP-65 · « **Reply #973 on:** August 8, 2013, 10:44:12 am »

To add further, we'll see two 10% or so "corrections" between now & then, both lasting 4-6 weeks, first one soon & into September, second one probably in November/early December.

G1 Jockey 4(betfair) · « **Reply #974 on:** August 8, 2013, 11:15:20 pm »

Quote from: Azi on August 3, 2013, 04:06:12 pm

looking for some advice, basically place i work is a privately listed company and am looking to buy shares in them work has a scheme where you can buy them through work but theirs a limit on how many you can buy which is linked to your salary eg if my salary is 30k i can buy 3k worth of shares in a year but id rather buy them independently as I'm looking to buy more just for the fact theirs been a huge drop in the share price after a poor financial year, is this ok for me to do this or would this be classed as insider trading so to speak because i know the shares will eventually rocket up ?

id seek independant advice on that.
you wouldnt want to take advice as gospel from a forum just in case it does land you in bother.

personally id think its ok unless you were the cheif accountant or higher up buying sh1t loads of shares.

JP-65 · « **Reply #975 on:** August 9, 2013, 03:44:08 pm »

Quote from: tomred on August 9, 2013, 02:08:37 pm

Japan bonkers. Heading for doom, middle of next year.

yup

CHOPPER · « **Reply #976 on:** August 9, 2013, 04:17:31 pm »

I have just swapped my car for 3 magic beans. What think yee investment people of RAWK?.... Grow long?

Hank Scorpio · « **Reply #977 on:** August 9, 2013, 04:36:47 pm »

What happened with Abe's policies, only short term kick?

JP-65 · « **Reply #978 on:** August 9, 2013, 05:40:28 pm »

Quote from: tomred on August 9, 2013, 04:14:18 pm

Jp: thoughts on japan stocks?

don't look at them at all, but Japan was in trouble before Abe's policies accelerated that process, IMO

JP-65 · « **Reply #979 on:** August 9, 2013, 05:42:04 pm »

Quote from: tomred on August 9, 2013, 04:39:12 pm

Lots of borrowed money, lots of fiscal stimulus, short of proper reform. So yeah, looking short term.

demographics are awful and getting worse, & Japan had very high debt to gdp levels before Abenomics, not sustainable, huge currency hit coming.

BazC · « **Reply #980 on:** August 9, 2013, 06:03:59 pm »

Long USDJPY, leveraged (via spreadbetting) was/is a favourite of mine. Just waiting to pounce on that one again.

JP-65 · « **Reply #981 on:** August 10, 2013, 03:07:30 pm »

Quote from: JP-65 on August 8, 2013, 08:11:03 am

Doug's OK, I trade thoughts with him a lot, he's just got this year wrong

We'll max out at 1800 +/- 20 points before we go into a bear market, and back to 900-1000

Your second chart really says it all, markets swing & correct, this one is no different, and it won't come near 600's like it did in 2008/9, it's more like the levels of 2000/2

Interesting as well, that when we get the drop back to 900-1000, we'll have a gigantic inverse head & shoulders, which fits, as I believe we go on THE bull market of all bull markets after

JP-65 · « **Reply #982 on:** August 11, 2013, 04:12:42 pm »

Some very interesting long term trends discussed here:

http://www.amateur-investor.net/AII_Weekend_AnalysisAug_10_13.htm

JP-65 · « **Reply #983 on:** August 11, 2013, 05:22:33 pm »

An interesting perspective on market cycles:

http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2010/02/14/grand-super-cycle-revisited%E2%80%8F/

JP-65 · « **Reply #984 on:** August 11, 2013, 05:53:43 pm »

Post election year Presidential Cycle.....watch out below!

JP-65 · « **Reply #985 on:** August 12, 2013, 01:29:06 pm »

Lawrence McDonald ‏@Convertbond 8m
Still amazed that the entire world is ignoring the risk / reward of Japan's QE addiction, nearly 3x US and missing GDP estimates today

vele-srbin · « **Reply #986 on:** September 4, 2013, 12:35:43 pm »

Don't know how many guys here from Aus, but we had a mining boom a few years, although not as great, expect a Natural gas boom over the course of the next 2 years or so

CB · « **Reply #987 on:** September 10, 2013, 05:48:42 pm »

Anybody with any news/views on whether LSE:KENZ will get an improved bid from LSE:AMEC or elsewhere?

The put-up or shut-up deadline is next Monday.

Bird Bird Bird The Bird Is The Word · « **Reply #988 on:** October 13, 2013, 02:57:49 pm »

Looking to buy stocks online in the UK, any pointers?

PaulF · « **Reply #989 on:** October 13, 2013, 04:15:38 pm »

Quote from: Das Liverpool on October 13, 2013, 02:57:49 pm

Looking to buy stocks online in the UK, any pointers?

Pointers as to brokers , or pointers as to stocks?

I'm considering dabbling (couple of hundred quidish) , just for fun really. I'd like to 'bet' on shares/indicies prices, to avoid nasty tax implications (unlikely at that level I know) and more importantly hefty broker fees. Can anyone recommend a site with a decent range of UK and US stocks for punting on without 'hefty' fees?

Bird Bird Bird The Bird Is The Word · « **Reply #990 on:** October 13, 2013, 10:26:03 pm »

Brokers mate, looking at the barclays "market master" one currently.

west_london_red · « **Reply #991 on:** October 15, 2013, 09:07:54 am »

Quote from: PaulF on October 13, 2013, 04:15:38 pm

Pointers as to brokers , or pointers as to stocks?

I'm considering dabbling (couple of hundred quidish) , just for fun really. I'd like to 'bet' on shares/indicies prices, to avoid nasty tax implications (unlikely at that level I know) and more importantly hefty broker fees. Can anyone recommend a site with a decent range of UK and US stocks for punting on without 'hefty' fees?

I use Iweb share dealing, only charge £5 a transaction, if you do set up an account set it up as an ISA to save on the tax - dont forget you can have a cash ISA and shares ISA at the same time, and can put upto £5,600 or there abouts in each (or double that is you dont have a cash ISA I believe)

PaulF · « **Reply #992 on:** October 18, 2013, 01:18:36 pm »

Cheers West London Red

Chakan · « **Reply #993 on:** October 18, 2013, 03:22:37 pm »

Google just hit over a $1000 per share. Yay my 1 share

Chakan · « **Reply #994 on:** October 18, 2013, 03:25:25 pm »

Quote from: tomred on October 18, 2013, 03:24:07 pm

Remember reading the IPO doc and then not buying. Idiot.

I bought it when it was at +- $620 per share. So a decent return so far

PaulF · « **Reply #995 on:** October 18, 2013, 03:29:08 pm »

I'm waiting for the newly privatised Royal mail to get my w-80 or whatever it is delivered, so I can buy US stock.

NewHampshire_Exile · « **Reply #996 on:** October 19, 2013, 01:49:46 am »

its fun to look back and see that there few that have got things right. and would you bet your money on the ones that have??

do your own research people. if you don't understand the company then don't put money into it.

and if you don't now how to research then you may be better off using funds.. the highs won't be as high... but nor will the lows.

killer-heels · « **Reply #997 on:** October 20, 2013, 10:08:39 am »

Quote from: NewHampshire_Exile on October 19, 2013, 01:49:46 am

its fun to look back and see that there few that have got things right. and would you bet your money on the ones that have??

do your own research people. if you don't understand the company then don't put money into it.

and if you don't now how to research then you may be better off using funds.. the highs won't be as high... but nor will the lows.

What sort of things do you look for when researching companies?

CB · « **Reply #998 on:** October 23, 2013, 12:44:40 pm »

Quote from: killer_heels on October 20, 2013, 10:08:39 am

What sort of things do you look for when researching companies?

I invest in individual equities and tend to focus on companies operating in markets which I understand. Luckily I work in mergers and acquisitions so I get access to pretty good quality information which also helps.

I use a strategy of initially picking companies in end markets with good fundamentals which is suppose is pretty obvious. Then I obviously look at individual companies for their growth potential, as well as competitive market position (is there one other big dominant player or is the company able to improve its position based on what it is doing?) and the regulations in force in its sector and the likelihood of change to these (positive or negative).

I also look at companies which are trading below the average price-earnings (P/E) ratio for their sector. I try to find out whether there is a reason for this and if the companies it taking steps to remedy any issues which it has had. On the flip side, I also look at companies trading at well above the market average P/E to see if there are any safe havens with good dividend yields.

I do also check out the credentials of the management team...looking at issues like how long have they been running the company, what is their background, have they previously grown similar businesses, do they look for growth through acquisitions and what has the dividend profile been since they have been running the company.

Working in M&A, I also have a natural tendency to look at companies as potential takeover targets and this does actually end up being my usual preference. If I can see M&A activity in the sector and there is the likelihood of more, then I will definitely go searching for a potential bid target. Also, if there seems to be hedge fund activity around an interesting company then this may suggest that they may be building their positions in expectation of a bid coming in.

Overall, with M&A being a key driver for me, I tend to be invested in companies for the medium-term unless I can see a very quick win because of a bid situation arising.

As examples of this, some my equities at present are LSE:BG, NYSE:CAM, NYSE:DRQ, NYSE:FTI, AIM:GAS, LSE:HTG, LSE:KENZ, NYSE:RRC and LSE:SMDR...so a heavy oil and gas focus at the moment.

WhoHe · « **Reply #999 on:** October 23, 2013, 03:48:37 pm »

I wanted to put some money away to pay for my daughter going to college and I am not that up to speed with financial markets, terminology etc. and some of the posts in here I honestly do not understand.
So as an investement choice what is the opinion on tracker funds ? I looked a while back on I think moneysaving expert website (or could have been Martins whatshisface not sure) and they are more complicated than I thought ! Some are ethical, far east, china russia etc. and some charge management fees and some don't - is it simplifying things to say if it charges a management fee then it is probably "better" ?