Author Topic: Climate Emergency is already here. How much worse it gets is still up to us (?)  (Read 376197 times)

Offline Andy @ Allerton!

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I could be wrong as it’s a while since I read about it, but earth is right on the edge of the ‘conservative habitable zone.’ It and Mars are like bookends for that region.  It’s in the middle of the optimistic habitable zone, where it’s more to chance.

My point remains, that life on earth is not a given. It’s a fragile thing.


Well. The 'Goldilocks Zone' is literally based on the position of Earth in the orbit of Sol and based on the radiant energy provided by Sol.

It's the guidestick for the other calculations which is why they can predict likely other Earths based on orbital path, size (Including Super Earths) and the Star(s) those planets orbit.

I'm not an Astrophysicist, but I think those are right based on the 'Tufty First Book on Sciency-things' from School ;)
« Last Edit: February 9, 2024, 02:53:00 pm by Andy @ Allerton! »
Quote from: tubby on Today at 12:45:53 pm

They both went in high, that's factually correct, both tried to play the ball at height.  Doku with his foot, Mac Allister with his chest.

Offline thejbs

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The habitable zone isn’t immutable. We could be outside of it in 1.75bn years, or before Everton win the league again. The jump from single cell life to complex life from nothing took the best part of 2 billion years or more. And animals took nearly 4 billion years to appear. We do not know if that timeline is normal or ridiculously fast by universal standards.

Anyway, my point is, while we can safely assume the planet will remain in some form until wiped out by a giant comet or swallowed by the sun, life is not a given. It’s precious and rare in the known universe.

Offline Andy @ Allerton!

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The habitable zone isn’t immutable. We could be outside of it in 1.75bn years, or before Everton win the league again. The jump from single cell life to complex life from nothing took the best part of 2 billion years or more. And animals took nearly 4 billion years to appear. We do not know if that timeline is normal or ridiculously fast by universal standards.

Anyway, my point is, while we can safely assume the planet will remain in some form until wiped out by a giant comet or swallowed by the sun, life is not a given. It’s precious and rare in the known universe.


Well we don't know that either. We know fuck all about the universe to be fair.

Quote from: tubby on Today at 12:45:53 pm

They both went in high, that's factually correct, both tried to play the ball at height.  Doku with his foot, Mac Allister with his chest.

Offline thejbs

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Hence ‘known’ universe.

Offline GreatEx

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Loving the science nerdery, but the point remains that no one thinks that unbridled carbon emissions are going to render the planet incapable of supporting any life within the next few millennia, and most would realise that forces out of our control will take care of that millions or billions of years from now. It's also a given that some life forms will thrive in a warming planet, but not the ones we want. Maybe we should get the doubters on board by saying every degree of warming will lead to a hundred fold increase in the number of mosquitoes, cockroaches and rats. :)

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Offline thaddeus

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Loving the science nerdery, but the point remains that no one thinks that unbridled carbon emissions are going to render the planet incapable of supporting any life within the next few millennia, and most would realise that forces out of our control will take care of that millions or billions of years from now. It's also a given that some life forms will thrive in a warming planet, but not the ones we want. Maybe we should get the doubters on board by saying every degree of warming will lead to a hundred fold increase in the number of mosquitoes, cockroaches and rats. :)
I think you might be onto something.  My wife refuses to return to Greece after her encounter with a flying cockroach over a decade ago.  Maybe this is the lever to stop the central heating running at 22C every time I leave the house.

Offline Nobby Reserve

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-68166298


"the environmental impact of such a leak is comparable to that of driving more than 717,000 petrol cars for a year."

 :o
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Offline thejbs

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We really don’t deserve to inhabit this planet.

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"the environmental impact of such a leak is comparable to that of driving more than 717,000 petrol cars for a year."

 :o

How about the environmental impact of livestock and eating meat  ;)

Really not wanting yet another couple of packs of supermarket sarnies for lunch yesterday, I opened my BK app for the first time in months to see if they had any offers worth taking.

Discovered Whopper Wednesday.

A Whopper (they have the plant shite for the cranks) for £1.99.


Labelling people who don't want to eat meat as cranks - how charming  ::)
« Last Edit: February 18, 2024, 10:15:29 am by Red-Soldier »

Offline Jiminy Cricket

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"the environmental impact of such a leak is comparable to that of driving more than 717,000 petrol cars for a year."

 :o
How about the environmental impact of livestock and eating meat  ;)
Nobby's family alone is probably responsible for similar amount of methane production. I understand that Nobby includes a pork chop with his cereal in the morning, and minced meat in his mincemeat pies.
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Offline Nobby Reserve

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Nobby's family alone is probably responsible for similar amount of methane production. I understand that Nobby includes a pork chop with his cereal in the morning, and minced meat in his mincemeat pies.


Such slander and I protest! I do NOT eat cereal.

Soon be BBQ season, though!

Yum!!!

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Offline Nobby Reserve

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Earlier this month, it was revealed that Bitcoin mining used up to 2.3% of all the electricity generated across the entire USA in 2023 (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-01/bitcoin-miners-in-us-consume-up-to-2-3-of-nation-s-electricity). It's increased fossil fuel burning and added an upwards pressure on electricity prices.

Since China banned crypto mining in 2021 (and some other cheap-energy countries have severely curtailed it), mining in the US, and especially in Texas, has really rocketed.

Some Democrats, led by Elizabeth Warren, have for some time been trying to obtain more detailed usage data by mining companies. They found a way to do this by utilising the Energy Information Administration (EIA), which does have the legal power to order that Bitcoin mining companies  provide detailed data on their energy usage.

The Bitcoin mining companies - who have their own lobbying group - have tried to block this.

They have a lot of support amongst the Repugs, including in Congress.

On Friday night, a Texas judge granted their request for an injunction to block them having to provide this data (https://www.semafor.com/article/02/24/2024/bitcoin-miners-lose-a-bid-to-hide-their-energy-data)

A quick look into the judge who made the order reveals he's a Trump appointee from 2018, who "has been widely criticized for ignoring binding case law"

Hopefully the higher courts will overturn this and force these crypto mining shitstains to provide the information - and hopefully that triggers a huge public backlash against them.

Meanwhile, that Semafor article mentions that Ethiopia is the new boom-country for cypto-miners, taking advantage of cheap electricity and weak regulation there. Half of Ethiopians have no access to electricity.





A Tory, a worker and an immigrant are sat round a table. There's a plate of 10 biscuits in the middle. The Tory takes 9 then turns to the worker and says "that immigrant is trying to steal your biscuit"

Offline GreatEx

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No matter how many times bitcoin mining is explained to me, I never understand it. It's not a real commodity! This is insane!

Offline thejbs

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At least Bitcoin miners aren’t getting £6BN in green subsidies from the tax payer to burn down ancient forests.

Drax: UK power station still burning rare forest wood https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-68381160

This is illustrative of how the planet is fucked. When governments use a technical definition to reach zero emissions. The power plant produces 12 million tonnes of CO2 every year but is classed as emission-free.
« Last Edit: February 28, 2024, 08:18:13 am by thejbs »

Offline Nobby Reserve

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At least Bitcoin miners aren’t getting £6BN in green subsidies from the tax payer to burn down ancient forests.

Drax: UK power station still burning rare forest wood https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-68381160

This is illustrative of how the planet is fucked. When governments use a technical definition to reach zero emissions. The power plant produces 12 million tonnes of CO2 every year but is classed as emission-free.


The government deems that 12m tonnes of CO2 to be on Canada's tally, believe it or not.
 
There's an entire industry grown around finding loopholes to avoid GHG emissions sitting on the 'carbon balance sheet' of a company, organisation or country.

An offshoot from Drax is a good example. Drax produces enormous quantities of 'fly ash' from its burning of the wood pellets. For years, that ash has gone through a process called sintering, which involves subjecting the ash to very high temperatures, then pelletising the result to create a lightweight aggregate, which is mostly used in the production of lightweight concrete blocks ('breezeblocks'). It turns what would otherwise be toxic waste into a saleable and useful product. But it's a very energy-intensive process so people have been trying to find a lower-energy alternative process.
The result is called OSTO (https://www.lowcarbonmaterials.com/products) and is being aggressively marketed as a green product.
They claim is is carbon-negative - but it's nothing of the sort. It still produces a lot of carbon emissions. Their claim is pure chicanery as they effectively subtract the carbon emissions from the traditional sintering process from the carbon emissions of the new process - and declare it carbon-negative! And they're allowed to do this.
There's also concerns over the level of 'immobilisation' of pollutants and some heavy-metals (ie, stopping them leaking into the environment) in the OSTO.
Still, it enables Drax to enhance their claims of being a green energy facility.
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Offline thaddeus

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New gas power plants needed to bolster energy supply, PM says

The UK needs to build new, gas-fired power stations to ensure the country's energy security, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said on Tuesday.

The new stations would replace existing plants, many of which are aging and will soon be retired.

But the government says the plans do not include measures for climate change-limiting carbon capture.

That could threaten a legally binding commitment to cut carbon emissions to net zero by 2050, critics say.

Mr Sunak, writing in the Daily Telegraph, said new gas power stations were needed to have a reliable and affordable back-up for days when renewables like wind and solar did not deliver.
He's probably right as gas provides over 35% of our energy but it's just another example of the wasted decade+ of Tory rule.  Our dependence on gas is about the same now as it was in 2010 and, combined with another 35% of our energy coming from oil, means we're still on the hook to fossil fuel rich nations (many of which are despotic).

It would be nice to think we could mothball the gas-fired power stations and limit gas for domestic boilers until they too can be gradually phased out.

Netherlands and Spain have a third of their energy provided by wind and solar (UK is 12%) while France have a third provided by nuclear (UK is 5%).  I'm sure there are pros and cons to both but we've ended up with decision paralysis here and not fully gone in on either.  I don't suppose there's any reason why a country couldn't pursue both aggressively instead of fossil fuels and dependence on international markets.

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Full article: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/mar/14/government-delays-scheme-to-spur-take-up-of-heat-pumps-after-pressure-from-gas-lobbyists

The government has delayed by a year its scheme for spurring the take-up of heat pumps, under pressure from the gas boiler industry.

The clean heat market mechanism is intended to force heating installers to fit more low-carbon heat pumps, to meet the UK’s net zero greenhouse gas emissions target and save energy.

But the scheme – which requires companies to install a gradually increasing proportion of heat pumps compared with the number of gas boiler installations or face a financial penalty – was inaccurately described as a “boiler tax” by gas heating companies and their lobbyists. Some boiler companies put their prices up by £120, which they said was in reaction to the potential scheme, but which one government insider told the Guardian was unfair price “gouging”.

The mechanism was due to come in this April but has been delayed to April 2025, the government said on Thursday. The energy secretary, Claire Coutinho, has also asked the Competition and Markets Authority to investigate the boiler market.

Reforms to the boiler upgrade scheme also announced on Thursday will mean households no longer need to upgrade their insulation to take advantage of government heat pump grants. Removing the requirement for cavity wall and loft insulation should save consumers about £2,500 on a heat pump installation, for which the government is offering a £7,500 grant.

Heat pumps can cost up to £14,000, but cheaper models are rapidly coming on to the market. Radiators generally run at lower temperatures with heat pumps than with boilers, so homeowners are encouraged to have insulation fitted too, which also reduces emissions, but increases the cost of installation.
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Offline Mister Flip Flop

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Ho hum, another month, another record. Hottest February on record, CO2 emissions up YoY, 1.5C 'limit' to be breached... Just another year on this overheated and overheating planet. Carry on nothing too see here....

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-february-2024-being-globally-the-warmest-on-record/

Soccer - let's face it, its not really about a game of ball anymore is it?

Offline butchersdog

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Why do people say 'the planet' when talking about the issues of climate change?

The planet and life overall is fine. We live in a goldilocks zone and once mankind has been dead and gone, the planet can survive anything - even if it got hit by something like Mars again, the past shows us that even being ripped to pieces like that had no effect on current life or 'the planet'

It should be posed as 'saving humanity' - although I think even parts of humanity will easily survive - it's just the other x billion that won't.

Not an expert by any means, but is there not a risk that we hit a runaway greenhouse effect and the planet ends up similar to Venus? Obviously not in every way given difference in mass etc, but enough to, over a long time, make life on Earth permanently extinct? Be interested if any of our resident physics buffs can confirm or debunk. If it’s bollocks, be kind please! :-)

Offline Jiminy Cricket

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Not an expert by any means, but is there not a risk that we hit a runaway greenhouse effect and the planet ends up similar to Venus? Obviously not in every way given difference in mass etc, but enough to, over a long time, make life on Earth permanently extinct? Be interested if any of our resident physics buffs can confirm or debunk. If it’s bollocks, be kind please! :-)
From my very limited reading on this, the idea is usually poo-pooed. The problem, though, is that climate models are just that: models. There are huge unknowns, else the models would perform far more reliably. We do not properly understand (or even know of) all the potential positive feedback loops.

I think what is more certain is that such loops would take a long time to kill the planet. But neither would we know when we've entered into such a downward spiral, let alone, what to do get out of it.

Anyway. There is surely a non-zero risk of this occurring.
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Offline thejbs

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SNP berated by Scottish Tories for missing 2030 climate goal, even though it was uk-wide Tory policy that have caused this failure. Interestingly, Scotland is the only part of the uk that can cover its energy needs with renewables. They had a 13% surplus in 2022. UK total is around 40%.

Offline thejbs

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We’ll never do anything about climate change as long as this warming planet is profitable. I’ve recently noticed a spate of machines and wearables focused on cooling you down.

https://www.sony.co.uk/store/p/rnpk5tw.ww

Online Red-Soldier

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We’ll never do anything about climate change as long as this warming planet is profitable. I’ve recently noticed a spate of machines and wearables focused on cooling you down.

https://www.sony.co.uk/store/p/rnpk5tw.ww

Interesting.  I'm guessing it's battery operated.  Says it both cools and warms.

Offline Egyptian36

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Crazy what happened at Dubai. One year worth of rain in one day only. heaviest rainfall in 75 years.

Offline GreatEx

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115 millimetres, that is indeed quite a lot in one day

Offline thejbs

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Biden administration has ushered in a 100% tax on Chinese EVs. Cars that would’ve made EVs more accessible to the masses. Ford and Tesla didn’t want to be undercut while they’re charging 60k on average per car. Profit before planet, as always.

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Biden administration has ushered in a 100% tax on Chinese EVs. Cars that would’ve made EVs more accessible to the masses. Ford and Tesla didn’t want to be undercut while they’re charging 60k on average per car. Profit before planet, as always.

China has cornered the EV, battery storage market.  They've got mines in most resource rich, areas.  Soft power and influence.

There's currently a struggle to try and wrestle some of that back and not be so reliant, in them.

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Biden administration has ushered in a 100% tax on Chinese EVs. Cars that would’ve made EVs more accessible to the masses. Ford and Tesla didn’t want to be undercut while they’re charging 60k on average per car. Profit before planet, as always.

China is building a BYD factory in Mexico to circumnavigate the tariffs.

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Offline thaddeus

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I'm not a Little Englander - if I was I don't think I'd have been able to buy a car for at least a decade as Aston Martins are a bit out of my price range - but I don't understand why anyone in the West would want to buy a car from a Chinese manufacturer.  It's already bad enough that we have such reliance on Russia/Middle East for fossil fuels and China for manufactured goods.

Offline thejbs

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Probably not the best example. Buy your Aston Martin and you’re buying into a company whose second largest shareholders are Saudi Arabia. A Chinese billionaire sits on the board and owns 16%, and the exec chairman and largest shareholder is Canadian. I think less than 1% of the company is British owned.

Not many British car manufacturer are British owned these days. Caterham’s parent is Malaysian, JLR is Indian owned, MG and lotus are Chinese, mini, RR and Bentley are German. I think TVR might still be British owned but use Ford engines.

Offline reddebs

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Probably not the best example. Buy your Aston Martin and you’re buying into a company whose second largest shareholders are Saudi Arabia. A Chinese billionaire sits on the board and owns 16%, and the exec chairman and largest shareholder is Canadian. I think less than 1% of the company is British owned.

Not many British car manufacturer are British owned these days. Caterham’s parent is Malaysian, JLR is Indian owned, MG and lotus are Chinese, mini, RR and Bentley are German. I think TVR might still be British owned but use Ford engines.

Morgan?

Just checked, no it's not British owned it's Italian 🤦
« Last Edit: May 17, 2024, 05:46:48 pm by reddebs »

Offline skipper757

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It's how you want to balance geopolitics, economics, and everyone else.

For example, in the US, there has been a large consolidation of companies over the last 40-50 years or so (less competition) and all the while there is a wealth gap that is large.  Japanese cars were the first post-World War II threat in economics to the US that really could "hurt" an industry.  There was a massive wave of anti-Japanese car sentiment.  "Need to protect American jobs!"

In the end, the Japanese are just better at making cars (smaller sedans anyway) that were popular among Americans.  The Big 3 in America offshored a bunch of jobs, lost market share around the world, and two of them took a government bailout.

The ideal world of high wages, union work, and everyone having affordable products doesn't work in America with a current state of government malaise as well.  The wealth gap means people are always going to want cheaper options.  When cars and housing is so expensive, people want $5 t-shirts (enter Temu).  When interest rates on auto loans are high, people will always want cheaper options.  How do you protect American jobs while making products cheaper for your less fortunate?  Obviously, universal healthcare, removing middlemen companies, and a more fair society could do it.  Things in Denmark are expensive, but people are generally happy.  But America has famously the opposite attitude.

Chinese government focused on batteries, solar panels, and EVs years ago.  Everyone mocked Chinese pollution back then.  The government went carrot and stick:  subsidies for green energy while limiting the availability of license plates and registrations for ICE cars.  This wasn't a secret (most people that comment on China have never been, or don't speak the language, or don't interact with Chinese people).  Warren Buffett invested in BYD years ago.  Meanwhile, the GOP was too busy denying climate change, American auto manufacturers were too slow and squandered the advantage (Tesla got in there at least), and politicians in general had no coherent strategy.  China built more much high-speed rail than the rest of the world combined in 15 years.

What does this mean?  It means that China has the largest EV market in the world by far.  It means a ton of competition (too much and some of those companies will have to go under).  It means attracting foreign manufacturers (Tesla received a bunch of subsidies to manufacture and sell in China; GM CEO Mary Barra recently attended the Beijing auto show - GM sold 5x as many cars in China as the US in 2016; GM won't want to miss out on remaining ICE/future EV sales).  It means that said capacity is now spilling over to the rest of the world.  But the prices for BYD are higher in Europe, UK, and Australia than China (so it's not even dumping, no matter what politicians say).  Moreover, it means that markets where they don't have access or the wealth consumers to buy Teslas for example (e.g. Malaysia, Thailand), Chinese EVs are all over it.  It's even in high-speed rail too.  Chinese company recently built the first HSR in SE Asia in Indonesia.  So Indonesians have trains that go 200 MPH linking cities.  The US and UK do not.

None of this is surprising.  There's a huge stereotype of "Chinese people being good at math."  So there's will for EVs/high speed rail and supposedly Chinese people can do math (kind of important for engineering), and there's 1.4 billion people, most of whom really want job opportunities.  Geez, who could've predicted this?  Authoritarian government or not, it's not a shock.

The US even transferred battery technology to China.

https://www.npr.org/2022/08/03/1114964240/new-battery-technology-china-vanadium

Speaking of batteries, Ford wants to partner with CATL (China's largest battery company) in the US for a JV.  Virginia GOP governor Glenn Youngkin shot down 2,500 jobs in rural Virginia ("This is a security threat!"), taking Virginia out of the equation for said operation.

So, American politicians mocked Chinese pollution, told American citizens that the Chinese won't innovate, did nothing, watched as China developed the largest EVs and HSR networks, even gave China technologies, allowed American corporations to explore huge profits in China (innovating and selling there), took an insane amount of lobbying from oil/gas companies and automakers, and now want to ban Chinese EVs and citing battery JVs as security threats.

Is China that competent or are countries like America being ruined by their greedy politicians and corporations?

Who's the real security threat to American/western hegemony?

Make everyone's lives better and in a more equal society, maybe people won't want cheaper Chinese goods, but the politicians don't seem keen on that...  And then are shocked when demand for Chinese goods is high.

Also, Chinese companies wouldn't necessarily sell in western markets for low prices anyway (more profit to be made).  Chinese companies could have JVs with American companies (win-win and America gets technology transfer the same way China did).  American investments and subsidies could spur on competition/innovation outside of China.  But it's easier to paint China as a boogeyman, blame China for everything, but also do nothing to improve people's lives.

At least Biden's trying, so I appreciate that, but there's no coherence in general.

Trump/DeSantis/etc:  "I'm tough on China.  Tariff them!"
Also:  Let's defund education, start a war on the Woke, ban windmills, etc.
King Kenny.

Offline thejbs

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Morgan?

Just checked, no it's not British owned it's Italian 🤦

I thought McLaren might be British owned, but it’s property of the Bahrain sovereign wealth fund.

Good read, skipper. Thanks for that.

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Thanks Skipper, that was a really interestig read - although a bit depressing.  The West has significantly weakened its hand globally due to corporate greed and short-termism.

What a missed opportunity than any green revolution will only transfer more money and influence to China.

Offline GreatEx

  • pectations. might be a cunt but isn't a capitalist cunt. Blissfully ignorant.
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That's been a major frustration for me here in Australia, we have the conditions to be world leaders in green energy development, but a few billionaire mining oligarchs and their conservative political stooges have conspired to keep us dependent on our fossil fuel reserves.

Even if you believe climate change is a hoax, as one of my neighbours' bumper stickers attest, surely you'd smell the opportunity for economic boom. But it would mean sharing the wealth outside the tiny inner circle, so fuck that!