Topic: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)

[Eeyore]

Does that have anything to do with the stats people wanting Nkunku over Nunez?

Why are you believing people who are leaking against their own club and own manager?

No one at the club should be briefing journalists or for that matter leaking the team hours before kick off.

[DonkeyWan]

The problem with all this focus on Nunez is that it looks past the myriad of other problems within the rest of the team; a (still) porous defence, a one-paced midfield, a lack of physicality and fight, a lack of team camraderie and confidence, a misfiring front three and an out-of-form and aging superstar WF. Each can be dealt with and it feels the team is close to being very good once more, but all the attention is on Nunez (because papers love an expensive flop story) as if he is the sole problem for Liverpool. He is a problem but not the sole one.

[Buster Gonad]

Does that have anything to do with the stats people wanting Nkunku over Nunez?

Now you're shifting the goalposts.  He clearly lies about Nunez missing a string of chances in the Merseyside Derby. That's a fact as Rafa would say.
Also he attempts to mislead by saying Nunez played well against Liverpool while on the other hand Nkunku had an unbelievable season. Nunez was also on the back of an unbelievable season.

The stats people may have preferred Nkunku.  Not sure why he had to tell lies to get that across.  But I suspect Nunez was on their radar too. Highly unlikely that Klopp went on a complete solo run.
Either way we dodged a bullet on a perma crocked 26 year old so we should be delighted.  Nkunku is worthless as a player and a saleable asset

[Scottymuser]

Re Jota - why are you still saying this? He's doubled his xG this season. No one does that once you get to a decent sample size. It's not that being over his xG is an outlier (he's been over and under for us), it's being double his xG which is the outlier. Jota's output, over a large enough sample size, will revert towards the mean. That's just xG being xG. Some players will marginally outperform it (Jota for us and perhaps over his career) and there will be some outliers who overperform it significantly. But plenty of great goal scorers will basically hit their xG over a large enough sample size.  Nunez's numbers, like everyone elses, will tend towards the mean. It's no surprise that his have done that over a large enough sample size. I'm not saying his season overshooting his xG is representative. I'm saying his performance over his career is representative. You're saying that we can ignore a part of the data sample as an anomaly whilst focussing on other parts of the data sample. But that's not how data works. And of course if you want to get into finishing skill etc you're going to have to explain how Nunez over performed that season in Portugal - presumably you think it was luck? That is, the intangibles that you're deriding me for relying on. In reality variance really matters in goal scoring, chances which 'should' be taken are actually less likely to be taken than we think and the biggest predictor of high scoring output is high value shot output.

Nunez takes lots of high value shots because per 90 his xG is high and per 90 his shot numbers are high. He's less efficient with the shots he does take than Jota (who is unbelievably good at shot selection, I can't recall seeing him shoot from outside the box, like ever) but he's getting lots of good chances to score goals. He absolutely needs to score more of them in the future but it's not going to change his numbers that much even if he does. His goals per 90 numbers are already really good. This has been said a million times by multiple posters in this thread and has fallen on deaf ears (and hasn't stopped silly comments like the one from collytum above) but anyway, there it is.

As for the comments about finishing - who's arguing Nunez is a better goalscorer than Jota? That's not the conversation being had in comparing them.

Nunez doesn't take a such a high volume of high value shots as you think, on average.  A good metric for that would be to look at the average xG per shot a player has had.  There are 57 players who have at least an xG 5 in the PL this season.  If you rank them by that metric, he falls 24th - just behind Keane Lewis-Potter and above Beto and Salah, with an average xG of 0.143 (the average across all 57 players is 0.138).  The top scorers this season in the league are all above him on that metric - although ours arent (Salah is at 0.149, Jota at 0.129, Diaz at 0.126, and Gakpo at 0.121). 

For reference - Here is the top goal scorers in the league (non-Penalty), ranked by this metric (and for npxG + A per 90) - everyone who has at least 10 league non-pen goals (plus Diaz/Alvarez/Jota) as useful points of comparison.  If ranked by Expected Goals + Assist, it shows Darwin as the best (ahead of Haaland) - ranking by actual puts both Haaland and Darwin down to 5th and 6th - mainly thanks to Watkins/Brennan Johnson/McBurnie and Hwang MASSIVELY outperforming their expected goals.  Mo Salah, another on here that many have criticised, is 3rd in the Expected metrics, and 8th in the overall - hardly poor.

Player	Mins	npxG	Shots	xG/Shot	npG	A	Performance vs xG	xG+A/90	G+A/90
Darwin Núñez	1995	14.9	104	0.143	11	8	-26.2%	1.033	0.857
Erling Haaland	2211	20.1	99	0.203	17	5	-15.4%	1.022	0.896
Mohamed Salah	2264	13.2	93	0.142	12	9	-9.1%	0.883	0.835
Ollie Watkins	2970	16	103	0.155	19	12	18.8%	0.848	0.939
Brennan Johnson	1648	8	42	0.190	10	7	25.0%	0.819	0.928
Richarlison	1399	8.8	58	0.152	10	3	13.6%	0.759	0.836
Cole Palmer	2162	8.5	79	0.108	11	9	29.4%	0.728	0.833
Hwang Hee-chan	1882	6.1	41	0.149	10	9	63.9%	0.722	0.909
Nicolas Jackson	2351	14.8	64	0.231	10	4	-32.4%	0.720	0.536
Luis Díaz	2410	11.1	88	0.126	8	8	-27.9%	0.713	0.598
Cody Gakpo	1405	6.9	57	0.121	6	4	-13.0%	0.698	0.641
Alexander Isak	1942	13.3	61	0.218	14	1	5.3%	0.663	0.695
Son Heung-min	2487	8.9	71	0.125	14	9	57.3%	0.648	0.832
Bukayo Saka	2753	9.9	94	0.105	10	9	1.0%	0.618	0.621
Kai Havertz	2364	10	57	0.175	11	6	10.0%	0.609	0.647
Chris Wood	1555	9.1	37	0.246	12	1	31.9%	0.585	0.752
Oliver McBurnie	1280	5.3	31	0.171	10	3	88.7%	0.584	0.914
Phil Foden	2518	9.3	93	0.100	16	7	72.0%	0.583	0.822
Dominic Solanke	3113	16.1	99	0.163	16	3	-0.6%	0.552	0.549
Julián Álvarez	2628	11.1	95	0.117	8	5	-27.9%	0.551	0.445
Jarrod Bowen	2839	9.9	73	0.136	16	6	61.6%	0.504	0.697
Diogo Jota	1145	5.3	41	0.129	10	1	88.7%	0.495	0.865
Leon Bailey	1888	6.1	50	0.122	10	3	63.9%	0.434	0.620
Rasmus Højlund	1953	7.3	34	0.215	8	2	9.6%	0.429	0.461
Yoane Wissa	2357	10.1	62	0.163	10	1	-1.0%	0.424	0.420

[Sheer Magnetism]

Why are you believing people who are leaking against their own club and own manager?

No one at the club should be briefing journalists or for that matter leaking the team hours before kick off.

But those team lineups are correct. You not wanting to believe something or disliking the fact it was revealed doesn't make it untrue, any more than I would choose to disbelieve a weather report just because it predicted rain.

Now you're shifting the goalposts.  He clearly lies about Nunez missing a string of chances in the Merseyside Derby. That's a fact as Rafa would say.
Also he attempts to mislead by saying Nunez played well against Liverpool while on the other hand Nkunku had an unbelievable season. Nunez was also on the back of an unbelievable season.

Please stop replying so I can spare you the embarrassment of having to explain what an aggregated article is.

[killer-heels]

That chance was rated at 0.4xG. So a forward is on average likely to miss it 1.5 times more often than score it. That is why saying he has to score it is nonsense.

If thats the metric then what chance should anyone score from?

[mullyred94]

If thats the metric then what chance should anyone score from?

Other players have also missed massive chances.

The best finisher in the squad had an open goal and didn't score.

[Sheer Magnetism]

That chance was rated at 0.4xG. So a forward is on average likely to miss it 1.5 times more often than score it. That is why saying he has to score it is nonsense.

The top finishers score it more often than not, that's why they're paid the big bucks. Because they're meant to be comfortably above average.

[Coolie High]

It was Nunez assisting Salah.

They have combined for 12 goals at Liverpool and Nunez has provided 10 of those assists and Salah only two.

That’s probably because he’s missed a lot of chances Salah has created for him.

[Jon2lfc]

The Djibril Cissé protocol? Hmmm, might be something in that.

Nah. I'm thinking more of the Thierry Henry protocol 

Didn't are Darwin play as a winger when he visited us with Benfica back in the day?
He looked dangerous that evening.

[Eeyore]

But those team lineups are correct. You not wanting to believe something or disliking the fact it was revealed doesn't make it untrue, any more than I would choose to disbelieve a weather report just because it predicted rain.

Two completely different things though. The actual lineup is revealed hours later so the veracity of the claim can be checked. Leaking that you wanted someone else after a player has a dip in form is completely different.

Neither thing should be happening and the second is an example of arse covering. The leak last week was also at a time when there is a power vacuum at the club with Klopp leaving and people are jostling for position.

[killer-heels]

Other players have also missed massive chances.

The best finisher in the squad had an open goal and didn't score.

Indeed and he too should have scored.

[Buster Gonad]

But those team lineups are correct. You not wanting to believe something or disliking the fact it was revealed doesn't make it untrue, any more than I would choose to disbelieve a weather report just because it predicted rain.Please stop replying so I can spare you the embarrassment of having to explain what an aggregated article is.

You mean stop replying to your bullshit with facts. By all means be critical of our players and manager but kindly don't try and back it up with untruthful articles.
And stop taking yourself so serious 

[Eeyore]

That’s probably because he’s missed a lot of chances Salah has created for him.

Like the pass against West Ham?

One of the big issues for me is that if you play a 9 then you want wide players or runners getting to the byeline and pulling the ball back. For that to happen you want wide players on their natural foot beating their man and pulling it back or midfield runners making third-man runs in between the centre backs and full backs like Szobo was earlier in the season.

We don't have that. We have Diaz and Salah as inverted wide players. Salah in particular tends to not take on his man but puts in passes with the outside of his foot. They look great when they come off but are much harder to finish than pullbacks.

Look at how many opportunities City create from pullbacks from the byeline.

[mullyred94]

Like the pass against West Ham?

One of the big issues for me is that if you play a 9 then you want wide players or runners getting to the byeline and pulling the ball back. For that to happen you want wide players on their natural foot beating their man and pulling it back or midfield runners making third-man runs in between the centre backs and full backs like Szobo was earlier in the season.

We don't have that. We have Diaz and Salah as inverted wide players. Salah in particular tends to not take on his man but puts in passes with the outside of his foot. They look great when they come off but are much harder to finish than pullbacks.

Look at how many opportunities City create from pullbacks from the byeline.

100% if the team was set up for Nunez we wouldn't play inverted wingers or at least we'd try to get to the byline.

Go look at his Benfica goals, fair few are pulled back or stood up from the byline or close to it.

[Sheer Magnetism]

You mean stop replying to your bullshit with facts. By all means be critical of our players and manager but kindly don't try and back it up with untruthful articles.
And stop taking yourself so serious 

Buster. You're pulling unrelated contextual comments from an aggregated 90Mins article (that I posted because the original Times article is behind a paywall) to disprove a source report from one of the most reliable Liverpool journos. Either because you haven't bothered to read the link for more than a few seconds or you're simply too dim to know the difference between the two. Does it really matter?

[Eeyore]

100% if the team was set up for Nunez we wouldn't play inverted wingers or at least we'd try to get to the byline.

Go look at his Benfica goals, fair few are pulled back or stood up from the byline or close to it.

Or just look at the start of his Liverpool career. Community shield Salah crosses with his right foot Nunez header is handled for a penalty. Then Robbo heads it across the six yard box and Nunez scores. Fulham first League game Salah crosses with his right foot Nunez flick in the six yard box.

That is the service he needs. This season we have been looking to set up shots from the edge of the area instead of looking to get down the side of defences. Plus Salah has started crossing with the outside of his left foot from a kind of Beckham area instead of using his right foot.

[Buster Gonad]

Buster. You're pulling unrelated contextual comments from an aggregated 90Mins article (that I posted because the original Times article is behind a paywall) to disprove a source report from one of the most reliable Liverpool journos. Either because you haven't bothered to read the link for more than a few seconds or you're simply too dim to know the difference between the two. Does it really matter?

Keep firing out the insults if it makes you feel superior. You left a link to an untruthful misleading article. Own it. We all make mistakes.

[Cpt_Reina]

It was Nunez assisting Salah.

They have combined for 12 goals at Liverpool and Nunez has provided 10 of those assists and Salah only two.

Salah should have many more in his defence 

[mullyred94]

Salah should have many more in his defence 

Same could be said the other way around though 

[Coolie High]

Like the pass against West Ham?

One of the big issues for me is that if you play a 9 then you want wide players or runners getting to the byeline and pulling the ball back. For that to happen you want wide players on their natural foot beating their man and pulling it back or midfield runners making third-man runs in between the centre backs and full backs like Szobo was earlier in the season.

We don't have that. We have Diaz and Salah as inverted wide players. Salah in particular tends to not take on his man but puts in passes with the outside of his foot. They look great when they come off but are much harder to finish than pullbacks.

Look at how many opportunities City create from pullbacks from the byeline.

I don’t get what you mean? What does one bad pass prove? I can remember 7-8 chances off the top of my head which Salah has created for Nunez this season which hasn’t been converted.

City play a similar way though they create cutbacks from their full backs and De Bruyne or Silva, Foden and Grealish play as inverted as wide players, Doku is the only out and out wide player they have and his delivery is wildly inconsistent.

[Coolie High]

Same could be said the other way around though 

Not really at all, Salah has literally created the most big chances in the league this season, I have doubts about reliable that stat is, but just from watching us I can see Salah creates far more for Nunez and everyone else than the inverse.

[Eeyore]

I don’t get what you mean? What does one bad pass prove? I can remember 7-8 chances off the top of my head which Salah has created for Nunez this season which hasn’t been converted.

City play a similar way though they create cutbacks from their full backs and De Bruyne or Silva, Foden and Grealish play as inverted as wide players, Doku is the only out and out wide player they have and his delivery is wildly inconsistent.

The point is about how you would get the best out of Nunez.

As I said that either means wide players getting to the byeline and pulling the ball back or runners getting down the sides of the centrebacks and pulling it back. Far too often for me Salah doesn't take his man on and looks to bend the ball in with the outside of his foot.

City don't play the ball in from the areas that Salah does and if they do it is the likes of DeBruyne whipping it in. They get third man runners pulling the ball back from the byeline just outside the six yard box. Our two main ways of scoring are trying to get Salah shooting from the inside right position and taking shots from the edge of the area.

[mullyred94]

Not really at all, Salah has literally created the most big chances in the league this season, I have doubts about reliable that stat is, but just from watching us I can see Salah creates far more for Nunez and everyone else than the inverse.

There's been a fair few chances Nunez has created for Salah that he hasn't taken in his time since Darwin first debuted.

Salah may have created more but its not like Nunez hasn't created chances for Salah that his missed either.

It's just all one way as would have been seen.

Was probably more last season than this season to be fair but there my point stands.

[paddysour]

I think with Nunez there's just no consistency. He jumps wildly between elite and looking like a donkey, so I can understand how both sides of the debate can get entrenched.

For me, I want him replaced. Even knowing full well he'll have a season where everything falls right for him and he'll score 25-30 in the league.

I can't stand the offsides, the bad touches, or the poor passes that break down our attack constantly. I don't think it's a good plan to rely on lady luck and hold out for the season it call goes right.

He has played in 62 PL games for Liverpool, and only scored in 16 of those. It's not consistent enough.

Yes you can talk minutes, but the reality is the best players command those minutes. If Nunez was consistent enough he'd be on the pitch.

[mullyred94]

I think with Nunez there's just no consistency. He jumps wildly between elite and looking like a donkey, so I can understand how both sides of the debate can get entrenched.

For me, I want him replaced. Even knowing full well he'll have a season where everything falls right for him and he'll score 25-30 in the league.

I can't stand the offsides, the bad touches, or the poor passes that break down our attack constantly. I don't think it's a good plan to rely on lady luck and hold out for the season it call goes right.

He has played in 62 PL games for Liverpool, and only scored in 16 of those. It's not consistent enough.

Yes you can talk minutes, but the reality is the best players command those minutes. If Nunez was consistent enough he'd be on the pitch.

He has 20 goalas and 11 assists in 62 PL games.

Or a goal or assist every second game..

[paddysour]

He has 20 goalas and 11 assists in 62 PL games.

Or a goal or assist every second game..

This is the difference isn't it? You see him as someone who contributes every second game. I see him as our record signing no.9 who can only be relied on to stick it in the net every 4 league games or so.

[mullyred94]

This is the difference isn't it? You see him as someone who contributes every second game. I see him as our record signing no.9 who can only be relied on to stick it in the net every 4 league games or so.

20 in 62 is 1 in 3 not 1 in 4

[JasonF]

This is the difference isn't it? You see him as someone who contributes every second game. I see him as our record signing no.9 who can only be relied on to stick it in the net every 4 league games or so.

I assume you're also in the Díaz thread bemoaning him scoring 16 in 64 games (1 in 4), in Gakpo's thread saying he's only scored 13 in 53 (slightly worse than 1 in 4) etc.

20 goals in 62 is closer to 1 in 3 btw. None of those 3 have particularly great goalscoring numbers if you look at games only, as their minutes get shared around quite a bit. Which is why some people prefer per 90 stats.

[Knight]

I assume you're also in the Díaz thread bemoaning him scoring 16 in 64 games (1 in 4), in Gakpo's thread saying he's only scored 13 in 53 (slightly worse than 1 in 4) etc.

20 goals in 62 is closer to 1 in 3 btw. None of those 3 have particularly great goalscoring numbers if you look at games only, as their minutes get shared around quite a bit. Which is why some people prefer per 90 stats.

Everyone should prefer the per90 stats. Using ‘games’ is a silliness when we have a superior stat to use.

[mullyred94]

I assume you're also in the Díaz thread bemoaning him scoring 16 in 64 games (1 in 4), in Gakpo's thread saying he's only scored 13 in 53 (slightly worse than 1 in 4) etc.

20 goals in 62 is closer to 1 in 3 btw. None of those 3 have particularly great goalscoring numbers if you look at games only, as their minutes get shared around quite a bit. Which is why some people prefer per 90 stats.

It's almost as if also we never sub the starting 9 off as the team requires pressing from the front also..

[Fromola]

He has 20 goalas and 11 assists in 62 PL games.

Or a goal or assist every second game..

That goal ratio is about the same as Bobby's in a red shirt. Bobby was leading from the front and linking the attack, making everything tick, in the knowledge that Salah and Mane would get the bulk of the goals.

Nunez is too often Haaland without the goal touch.

It's also when you score the goals. You need to step up when it matters.

[mullyred94]

That goal ratio is about the same as Bobby's in a red shirt. Bobby was leading from the front and linking the attack, in the knowledge that Salah and Mane would get the bulk of the goals.

Nunez is too often Haaland without the goal touch.

Still doesn’t take away the fact he has 31 goal involvements in 62 games.

Until until the last month or so his link up play was drastically improved.

Also stepping up point, he lead the league in winning the most points by in winning goals up until this recent spell wasn’t he ?



His also basically got Bobby’s best assist tally in the league.

A lot of rough areas but the lad is effective is he not?

[paddysour]

20 in 62 is 1 in 3 not 1 in 4

The 20 came in 16 games. Which is my point - we can't have a record signing 9 who only scores in 16 of his 62 league games.

[paddysour]

I assume you're also in the Díaz thread bemoaning him scoring 16 in 64 games (1 in 4), in Gakpo's thread saying he's only scored 13 in 53 (slightly worse than 1 in 4) etc.

20 goals in 62 is closer to 1 in 3 btw. None of those 3 have particularly great goalscoring numbers if you look at games only, as their minutes get shared around quite a bit. Which is why some people prefer per 90 stats.

Not on Rawk granted, but I've never been enamoured with the Diaz signing. You could see our numbers drop off when he came in as a starter.

But, Diaz and Gakpo offer something a little different and are much less expensive. I think they are fine as squad players, but would definitely sell at the right price.

[JasonF]

That goal ratio is about the same as Bobby's in a red shirt. Bobby was leading from the front and linking the attack, making everything tick, in the knowledge that Salah and Mane would get the bulk of the goals.

Nunez is too often Haaland without the goal touch.

It's also when you score the goals. You need to step up when it matters.

We've fallen away these last few weeks but until very recently we had the most goals of any team in Europe's top 5 leagues in all competitions, and Núñez had the second most goal contributions in that team. His play might not be as pretty to look at as Firmino's at times, but it's clearly effective.

For whatever reason the whole team look ponderous and lacking confidence in front of goal at the minute. Núñez is an easy scapegoat but if he was the only problem, we should be seeing improvements when he's not playing.

[mullyred94]

The 20 came in 16 games. Which is my point - we can't have a record signing 9 who only scores in 16 of his 62 league games.

Why do assists not count?

111 minutes per goal contribution all from basically open play bar flick on headers from corners this season in the league is bored line elite is it not ?

Doesn’t take pens or free kicks either like have the players named who have better goal scoring records than him who’s half their goals come from pens or FKS but I guess that doesn’t show up when you look up at games played and goals scored either.

[Fromola]

Still doesn’t take away the fact he has 31 goal involvements in 62 games.

Until until the last month or so his link up play was drastically improved.

Also stepping up point, he lead the league in winning the most points by in winning goals up until this recent spell wasn’t he ?



His also basically got Bobby’s best assist tally in the league.

A lot of rough areas but the lad is effective is he not?

It's unfortunate, as if Salah and Jota had stayed fit then he's under less pressure and probably carries on scoring/assisting (his numbers were fine at that point). But that's when we needed him to step up and his head went. He got that  goal against Forest at the end which is exactly what we needed. That was 2 months ago though and he's scored one league goal since and one assist. And that goal was at home to Sheffield United. He also scored in the two Prague games, so basically he's only scored against the worst two teams we've played.

[mullyred94]

It's unfortunate, as if Salah and Jota had stayed fit then he's under less pressure and probably carries on scoring/assisting (his numbers were fine at that point). But that's when we needed him to step up and his head went. He got that  goal against Forest at the end which is exactly what we needed. That was 2 months ago though and he's scored one league goal since and one assist. And that goal was at home to Sheffield United. He also scored in the two Prague games, so basically he's only scored against the worst two teams we've played.

So his shite then?

Luis Diaz has a goal involvement every 186 minutes and is our player of the season because his the only one that has played good in the last month?

[Eeyore]

It's unfortunate, as if Salah and Jota had stayed fit then he's under less pressure and probably carries on scoring/assisting (his numbers were fine at that point). But that's when we needed him to step up and his head went. He got that  goal against Forest at the end which is exactly what we needed. That was 2 months ago though and he's scored one league goal since and one assist. And that goal was at home to Sheffield United. He also scored in the two Prague games, so basically he's only scored against the worst two teams we've played.

Nunez was also injured during the run in though.