Topic: UK GE and Local Elections, plus polls, and policy.

[Kenny's Jacket]

So the Muslim vote is now influencing the results of our elections. 

What do you mean OF?

[CowboyKangaroo]

What do you mean OF?

Fairly sure he was being ironic. A sort of "they'll take our jerrrrbs" line.

Damn citizens of this Country voting in our elections and having political views.

[classycarra]

The opposition to GM vit A enhanced rice is based on fairly good science around the risks of contamination of non-GM crops, with associated risks to non-GM farmer's livelihoods,  and the reduction of biosecurity because of a reduction in genetic diversity; their opposition is accompanied by a series of alternative and entirely practical solutions (which have already worked elsewhere) rather than "promoting" childhood blindness in any way.

https://www.greenpeace.org/southeastasia/publication/1073/golden-rice/#:~:text=GE%20'Golden'%20rice%20is%20highly,would%20negatively%20impact%20rural%20livelihoods.

That's all well and good, and it's a nice quote in their report - even if it's lacking a citation - but given Greenpeace's legal challenge has meant that farmers have had to stop all planting of the crops it feels a bit hollow of them.

So in actual fact, Greenpeace's actions have actively caused the exact harm that they claimed was a reason to oppose the rice - rice farmers "will lose their markets, especially export markets, which would negatively impact rural livelihoods" - and as a fun addendum have ensured that the burden of vitamin A deficiency (and blindness and other ill-health that causes) on the children of Phillipines and importing countries.

So can we both agree that Greenpeace's stated concern for the livelihood of the farmers is at best a minimal afterthought given the reality of their legal challenge (or at worst, and more realistically, entirely feigned - purely to support their agenda)

[filopastry]

https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/election-progress/verification-and-turnout-data

Not sure how much it varies to normal, but turnout splits look more favourable for the Tories in London, I suspect that is usually the case though, older more Tory friendly outer London would be kind of expected to have higher turnout.

[Red Beret]

This is what Rob Ford, the politics professor and elections specialist, said in a post on his Substack account, The Swingometer, a few days ago about how to measure what might be a good or bad projected national share (PNS) result for the parties.

    The lowest PNS ever recorded by Conservatives is 25%, in 2013 and earlier in 1995. They narrowly avoided hitting this floor last year, when they posted 26%, but they go into this years contests in an even worse polling position, around 20 points behind in the polling averages. A PNS share below 25% would be the lowest ever recorded since the BBC started calculating these figures in 1982.

    The first target for Labour is to go above 35% - this is the highest PNS recorded by both Keir Starmer (twice – in 2022 and 2023) and by Jeremy Corbyn (in 2018). This should be easily achievable given Labour’s bigger poll lead this year. The next target is 38% - the highest PNS recorded by Labour in this period of opposition, achieved by Ed Miliband in 2012. The ultimate target for Starmer and Labour would be 46%, Labour’s all time high PNS figure recorded under Tony Blair in 1995. However, with voting in local elections now much more fragmented, this mark is likely out of reach. Anything close to 40% will be a dominant performance.

    The Liberal Democrats will be aiming for 24% - they never fell below this level of support on PNS between 1993 and 2010, and have never risen back to this level since. Getting back to around a quarter of projected national share would show they are returning to pre-Coalition levels of vitality in local government.

Here are the figures released by the BBC within the last few minutes, compared to the results from last year.

Labour: 34% (down 1 point)

Conservatives: 25% (down 1 point)

Lib Dems: 17% (down 3 points)

Others: 24% (up 5 points)

[TepidT2O]

Just as a comparator, the figures in 1996 were: Labour on 43%, Conservatives 27% and Lib Dems 26%. But 'Others' of course were much lower then. 24% will not be the figure for others in the GE.

[Ma Vie en Rouge]

That's all well and good, and it's a nice quote in their report - even if it's lacking a citation - but given Greenpeace's legal challenge has meant that farmers have had to stop all planting of the crops it feels a bit hollow of them.

So in actual fact, Greenpeace's actions have actively caused the exact harm that they claimed was a reason to oppose the rice - rice farmers "will lose their markets, especially export markets, which would negatively impact rural livelihoods" - and as a fun addendum have ensured that the burden of vitamin A deficiency (and blindness and other ill-health that causes) on the children of Phillipines and importing countries.

So can we both agree that Greenpeace's stated concern for the livelihood of the farmers is at best a minimal afterthought given the reality of their legal challenge (or at worst, and more realistically, entirely feigned - purely to support their agenda)

I think we're well off-topic here mate, so will leave it for another thread, perhaps, but I do wonder what you think their "agenda" is.

[oldfordie]

What do you mean OF?

I could see this coming last year and wouldn't touch it because it's going to bring a s.. storm. the left are terrible when it comes to tactics. it's only a matter of time before the far right start banging on about it. think about what the racists argued in the 60s,people can now say they were right.

[classycarra]

I think we're well off-topic here mate, so will leave it for another thread, perhaps, but I do wonder what you think their "agenda" is.

Fair play.

I'll leave you with a Cochrane systematic review (ie gold standard) on the topic, which applies the scientific method to synthesise the current evidence base on the topic and is properly peer-reviewed.

https://www.cochrane.org/CD008524/BEHAV_vitamin-supplementation-preventing-disease-and-death-children-aged-six-months-five-years

I'm of the view that they have a better sense of the evidence than the pressure group of ideologues, looking to utilise any levers available to them to oppose any form of GMO for (insert any reason they can grasp at here) - regardless of the health and economic (so, also health-related) consequences of their fun days out in court - rather than an evidenced scientific concern.

If your point about their "agenda" is a serious one (am unclear why you put in quotes), you should google "Greenpeace About" - it'll take you to the relevant page on their website where the campaigning pressure group sets out their agenda.

[Kenny's Jacket]

I could see this coming last year and wouldn't touch it because it's going to bring a s.. storm. the left are terrible when it comes to tactics. it's only a matter of time before the far right start banging on about it. think about what the racists argued in the 60s,people can now say they were right.

So who are you angry at?

[west_london_red]

https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/election-progress/verification-and-turnout-data

Not sure how much it varies to normal, but turnout splits look more favourable for the Tories in London, I suspect that is usually the case though, older more Tory friendly outer London would be kind of expected to have higher turnout.

I looked at a few of the wards compared to 2021 and they are down 2-4% in terms of turnout this year compared to 2021.

[oldfordie]

So who are you angry at?

One analysis on TV has just said Labour won't win a majority based on the local election results. months ago some were saying Labour are loosing the Muslim vote and this will cost them seats at the election, this wasn't said as a observation, it was said as a threat,  what they never considered was the far rights rection to what they are saying, they are saying the Muslim vote can now determine the results of a election, that's basically what the racists argued back in the 60s.

[filopastry]

I looked at a few of the wards compared to 2021 and they are down 2-4% in terms of turnout this year compared to 2021.

And Bexley actually up a bit and it is the Tories best region.

https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1786434620856136097

Hall in to about 3/1 now with the bookies

[Kenny's Jacket]

One analysis on TV has just said Labour won't win a majority based on the local election results. months ago some were saying Labour are loosing the Muslim vote and this will cost them seats at the election, this wasn't said as a observation, it was said as a threat,  what they never considered was the far rights rection to what they are saying, they are saying the Muslim vote can now determine the results of a election, that's basically what the racists argued back in the 60s.

So your pissed off that the far right can now claim Muslims have the "whip hand"

Ill make a few points, not to counter yours, just observations.
Labour will win a majority
To claim that 6% of the population will decide the election is daft, it means were putting an obligation on Muslims to vote a certain way
Non Muslims will not vote Labour for the same reason as the Muslims wont
Groups with a larger numbers  will have much more influence than Muslims on the GE. Its maths
Labour made their own bed

[smicer07]

Why on earth would anyone vote for that awful Susan Hall woman?

[Libertine]

It would be a disaster for London. But at the same time, the perfect cautionary tale for Labour going into the GE.

Hopefully he scrapes through and they can use the experience for that as well.

[oldfordie]

So your pissed off that the far right can now claim Muslims have the "whip hand"

Ill make a few points, not to counter yours, just observations.
Labour will win a majority
To claim that 6% of the population will decide the election is daft, it means were putting an obligation on Muslims to vote a certain way
Non Muslims will not vote Labour for the same reason as the Muslims wont
Groups with a larger numbers  will have much more influence than Muslims on the GE. Its maths
Labour made their own bed

Then they need to stop saying Muslims are refusing to vote Labour and it will cost them at the next GE, they can't say it will cost them seats when it suits and then argue it will have no influence on the election.

[filopastry]

It would be a disaster for London. But at the same time, the perfect cautionary tale for Labour going into the GE.

Hopefully he scrapes through and they can use the experience for that as well.

Yes if she wins it will be down to apathy and people thinking it was in the bag, the same for if it is stupidly close, which it really shouldn't be

For all London is generally a pretty progressive, Labour friendly city, a lot of people don't realise that these is a significant minority of people who fucking viscerally loathe Khan and they will be guaranteed to turnout.

[west_london_red]

Yes if she wins it will be down to apathy and people thinking it was in the bag, the same for if it is stupidly close, which it really shouldn't be

For all London is generally a pretty progressive, Labour friendly city, a lot of people don't realise that these is a significant minority of people who fucking viscerally loathe Khan and they will be guaranteed to turnout.

I don’t think it’s down so much to apathy as it is a mixture of racism in some quarters and ULEZ.

[Circa1892]

The whole chatter about “the Muslim vote” is offensive.

Yes - a substantial element of people who follow the faith are upset and angry about Gaza and are voting as such - but Muslims don’t vote as a block. Labours vast majority among Muslim communities is hit but it still very much exists.

[Circa1892]

I don’t think it’s down so much to apathy as it is a mixture of racism in some quarters and ULEZ.

Difficult to underestimate the difficulty of getting a third term aswell. Especially with no obvious track record of success.

But also London is shite so who cares.

[Red Beret]

If London is dumb enough to elect Hall because they're pissed off with Khan, then they will have plenty of time to regret their decision. She makes Truss seem reasonable and sound of mind.

[AthleticClub]

The whole chatter about “the Muslim vote” is offensive.

Yes - a substantial element of people who follow the faith are upset and angry about Gaza and are voting as such - but Muslims don’t vote as a block. Labours vast majority among Muslim communities is hit but it still very much exists.

Poorly phrased and a bit lazy. But not sure it's offensive is it?

[Kenny's Jacket]

Poorly phrased and a bit lazy. But not sure it's offensive is it?

Its not offensive, C.1892 made a point I forgot to make in my list, there are Muslims who will vote Labour

[Trump's tiny tiny hands]

2024 Turnout (and change from 2021) in London:

Places Bailey won:

Bexley and Bromley: 48% (+4)
Brent and Harrow: 37% (-3)
Ealing and Hillingdon: 43% (-4)
South West: 45% (-2)
West Central: 35% (-4)

Avg: down 2%

Places Khan won:

City and East: 31% (-4)
Barnet and Camden: 40% (-3)
Enfield and Haringey: 41% (-1)
Greenwich and Lewisham: 40% (-2)
Lambeth and Southwark: 39% (-2)
Merton and Wandsworth: 46% (-1)
North East: 40% (-2)

Avg: down 2%

No real noticeable turnout change by borough

[Circa1892]

Poorly phrased and a bit lazy. But not sure it's offensive is it?

I think it’s offensive to suggest an entire religion are homogenous and base decisions on one issue

[AthleticClub]

I think it’s offensive to suggest an entire religion are homogenous and base decisions on one issue

I understand what you are saying, the 'Gaza vote' would be more apt. Think we won't agree on this, as I say more lazy to me than offensive. But not really hugely important in the grand scheme

[west_london_red]

Difficult to underestimate the difficulty of getting a third term aswell. Especially with no obvious track record of success.

But also London is shite so who cares.

People care because some of us live or work there, and more importantly than that it shows that dog whistle racism works if Hall wins.

[killer-heels]

Dunno why Sky keep parroting their council election into national polls prediction. Any sensible person knows that underestimates the likely result.

[Red Beret]

Tories now down 325 seats. The prediction was 477 I think?

[Jiminy Cricket]

Dunno why Sky keep parroting their council election into national polls prediction. Any sensible person knows that underestimates the likely result.

I think I've spotted the fatal flaw in your argument.

[Elmo!]

Tories now down 325 seats. The prediction was 477 I think?

BBC has them down 424.

[Libertine]

Lib Dems take Tunbridge Wells.

Mike Martin (of Ukraine twitter fame) running for them in the GE there.

[Kenny's Jacket]

The Lib Dem candidate asking for people to vote for Khan

[Ma Vie en Rouge]

Fair play.

I'll leave you with a Cochrane systematic review (ie gold standard) on the topic, which applies the scientific method to synthesise the current evidence base on the topic and is properly peer-reviewed.

https://www.cochrane.org/CD008524/BEHAV_vitamin-supplementation-preventing-disease-and-death-children-aged-six-months-five-years

I'm of the view that they have a better sense of the evidence than the pressure group of ideologues, looking to utilise any levers available to them to oppose any form of GMO for (insert any reason they can grasp at here) - regardless of the health and economic (so, also health-related) consequences of their fun days out in court - rather than an evidenced scientific concern.

If your point about their "agenda" is a serious one (am unclear why you put in quotes), you should google "Greenpeace About" - it'll take you to the relevant page on their website where the campaigning pressure group sets out their agenda.

Thanks for the article. I'll read it when I haven't had a glass or two.

Agenda was in quotes, because it's generally used in a pejorative sense, with attendant sinister implications. If you meant it entirely in its more innocent, informative sense, then that's my misreading.

[thaddeus]

The Tories taking a kicking and Labour only making small gains is a very good day as far as I'm concerned.  Labour have been insipid recently so hopefully this will jolt them out of that comfort zone ahead of the main event.

The majority of the country rejecting the Tories is a gift that keeps on giving at the moment.  It was a long time coming and I'm going to revel in every day of it.

[Lusty]

Lib Dems take Tunbridge Wells.

Mike Martin (of Ukraine twitter fame) running for them in the GE there.

Boundary changes have brought that one into play for the Lib Dems.  If they lose Tunbridge Wells though the blue (rinse) wall truly has fallen.

[TSC]

800 labour seats
300 Tory seats

30 councils left to announce.

It's fucking glorious

 But tories will spin the mayor hold, or something

[Red-Soldier]

My gammon relative in London, hates Khan and has told me on numerous occasions that he'd like to shoot him.  That's the kind of bigoted racism, and hatred, that he's up against, with some people.  Of course, he's also a huge fan of Frottage.

[Red-Soldier]

I was under the impression she either drove an electric car or sailed.  Does she fly?

I'm not totally shocked that some posters are attacking Thurnburg and other 'Green' groups.

Some of their views would fit well within Reform UK.