Topic: UK General Election - CLACTON

[Fromola]

Yeah voter percentages are irrelevant.

Labour seems to have lost a lot of votes in incredibly safe urban areas and gained votes where they need to win. Their vote has been unusually efficient.

Where the vote split has had a big impact (looks like it will in WM) it wouldn’t be enough to swing seats in an election. Unless anything changes its in the bag - which will be devastating no doubt to some in here.

Was the same with the Blair wins. Their vote went down in red wall places (at least after '97) but they still won in their traditional areas. They also won in a lot of middle England seats which gave them a big majority.]]

Scotland an overlooked factor as well. SNP have imploded since 2019 and independence is off the agenda for a while (at least over the next parliament). Labour should be looking to make gains there.

[west_london_red]

And presumably, the Tories will lose more votes to Reform than Labour will to independents protesting Gaza.

I would imagine so, especially if the fighting in Gaza has ended by the time of the election, that would certainly help Labour (and the people in the region too obviously).

[Millie]

LBC must be following this thread.  They are discussing the over promotion of Reform on tv, as opposed to the Greens.

[Byrnee]

Yeah Khan will win, its never in doubt.

I hope you're right,  but between Ulez, general voter apathy to Khan and perhaps a misunderstanding that you could protest vote Gaza, he could be in trouble here. The gerrymandering Tory changes to voting preferences are a massive issue. And if that was down to a large number of Gaza protest votes allowing Hall in, that would be the biggest self-inflicted harm for the capital since Boris, and likely would result in much, much worse results.

If she wins, the Tories will learn all the wrong lessons and I would easily predict a slew of Susan Hall-esque Trumpian, Marjorie Taylor-Green candidates running for them in the next few years. Look at the national shift in policy that happened immediately after the ULEZ issue and the Uxbridge by-election win - it completely transformed the Tory attitude to Net Zero.

This could have similar, very dark, repercussions.

[Fromola]

LBC must be following this thread.  They are discussing the over promotion of Reform on tv, as opposed to the Greens.

They did the same with UKIP. BBC making a star of Frottage when he was unelected and UKIP had no MP's. They set the agenda in opposition over the coalition government and were given the platform to do so. Cameron then promised the referendum with disastrous consequences.

[Fromola]

I hope you're right,  but between Ulez, general voter apathy to Khan and perhaps a misunderstanding that you could protest vote Gaza, he could be in trouble here. The gerrymandering Tory changes to voting preferences are a massive issue. And if that was down to a large number of Gaza protest votes allowing Hall in, that would be the biggest self-inflicted harm for the capital since Boris, and likely would result in much, much worse results.

If she wins, the Tories will learn all the wrong lessons and I would easily predict a slew of Susan Hall-esque Trumpian, Marjorie Taylor-Green candidates running for them in the next few years. Look at the national shift in policy that happened immediately after the ULEZ issue and the Uxbridge by-election win - it completely transformed the Tory attitude to Net Zero.

This could have similar, very dark, repercussions.

Assuming they don't win, it was winnable for the Tories given other factors, as the 2012 one was for Labour if they'd put a better candidate up than Livingstone who'd already lost to Boris in the previous one. Despite them putting the wrong candidate and the media doing their worst, there still wasn't much in it.

The Tories needed to put up a stronger politician/personality.

[LuverlyRita]

LBC must be following this thread.  They are discussing the over promotion of Reform on tv, as opposed to the Greens.

It's not just around elections. It's a problem in general, particularly on The BBC. The Greens hardly ever get a spot on Question Time or Any Questions and it's jaw dropping how often you see the wretched Kate Andrews on both when she's neither a politician nor an economist.
Having said that LBC run their own agendas as evidenced by the removal of the award and ratings winning journalist Sangita Myska from their station because she dared to fact check the propoganda of a foreign state spokesman 

[Draex]

LBC must be following this thread.  They are discussing the over promotion of Reform on tv, as opposed to the Greens.

Right wing media v's left wing Greens..

[Andy @ Allerton!]

I'm not totally shocked that some posters are attacking Thurnburg and other 'Green' groups.

Some of their views would fit well within Reform UK.

[lobsterboy]

Yeah Khan will win, its never in doubt.

I hope he does but never underestimate the stupidity of English gammon to hurt themselves if they think it might hurt brown people or "woke" more.

[Lisan Al Gaib]

The Tory press salivating over Labour's NEV of 35% today and how that means they won't get a majority at the next election. Hopefully Sunak is tricked by this too and calls one ASAP.

[filopastry]

All the mood music today seems to be that Khan will win anyway after yesterday's wobble, probably be closer than it should be, but if people don't bother voting that is what happens.

[TSC]

https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-pays-tribute-to-polling-station-staff-who-refused-to-let-him-vote-without-photo-id-13128674

[smicer07]

Can get 50/1 on Hall now.

[filopastry]

https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1786718721945256347

Sounds like Khan should win comfortably enough, I suspect

[Statto Red]

As expected.

Labour wins Liverpool City Region mayoral election

Steve Rotheram has comfortably won a third term, getting more than 70% of the vote cast.

The Green Party's Tom Crone finished second, followed by Liberal Democrat Robert Mcallister-Bell.

[Millie]

According to the BBC - the Tories were second in Liverpool.  Greens third, Lib Dems fourth, with independent fifth.

Rotherham was well ahead.

[Kenny's Jacket]

Taken from BBC re London

There has been a swing to Sadiq Khan in the two areas which have declared.

In Merton and Wandsworth, there was a 5.1% swing to Labour from the Conservatives. In Greenwich and Lewisham, there was a 4.5% swing to Labour.

Remember; the Tories needed a swing to take this race. Labour are feeling confident - and these results show why.

[Statto Red]

According to the BBC - the Tories were second in Liverpool.  Greens third, Lib Dems fourth, with independent fifth.

Rotherham was well ahead.

Mine was from the sky news thread, either way Rotheram was always going to win by a landslide.

[Kenny's Jacket]

Re the conversation above,

The BBC have published the figures so maybe they were 2nd


Labour - 183,932
Conservative - 27,708
Green - 26,417
Liberal Democrat - 21,366
Independent - 11,032

[TepidT2O]

Close then

[Statto Red]

South Yorkshire results in full
As we've just heard, Labour's Oliver Coppard has comfortably been re-elected for a second term as mayor of South Yorkshire. Here's a full breakdown of the results:

Labour – 138,611
Conservatives – 44,945
Green – 37,142
Liberal Democrats – 31,002
SDP – 20,835

[Statto Red]

Rotheram accuses Sunak of 'squatting' in Downing Street
Back over to Liverpool, where we've just heard from Mayor Steve Rotheram, who uses the first part of his victory speech to take aim at the government's new ID requirements at polling stations.

He says he understands the disappointment of people who were unable to vote in this election because of the "regressive" law.

Rotheram says Liverpool's voters have "hollered at the top of their voices" to tell the government "enough is enough", before setting out his hopes for more devolved powers under a Labour government.

He continues: "The road to Downing Street runs through transformative Labour administrations in local and regional government.

"With Labour in Westminster, we will get to see what real devolution is like, not the limited decentralisation we are seeing now."

He ends by accusing Prime Minister Rishi Sunak of "squatting in Downing Street" and tells him now is the time to call a general election.

[Kenny's Jacket]

South Yorkshire results in full
As we've just heard, Labour's Oliver Coppard has comfortably been re-elected for a second term as mayor of South Yorkshire. Here's a full breakdown of the results:

Labour – 138,611
Conservatives – 44,945
Green – 37,142
Liberal Democrats – 31,002
SDP – 20,835

Werent they the party of Shirley Williams and Dr David Owen?

[TepidT2O]

The London Mayoral election isn’t going to be close at all.

Al a load of nonsense. First ward shows a swing to labour

[TSC]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-68609732

Rotheram says Sunak is squatting in Downing Street

[Crosby Nick]

Rotherham was well ahead.

Not often you hear that.

[TSC]

London results so far has Khan on 168k and Hall on 86k (sky news)

[Draex]

London results so far has Khan on 168k and Hall on 86k (sky news)

Excellent, a smashing in the capital and in to the GE.

[Lisan Al Gaib]

A lot more confident for Khan after the first few results. If Wandsworth and Greenwich are swinging to Labour it shouldn't be too much of an issue elsewhere

[west_london_red]

A lot more confident for Khan after the first few results. If Wandsworth and Greenwich are swinging to Labour it shouldn't be too much of an issue elsewhere

Greenwich was won by Khan last time wasn’t it?

[Millie]

Not often you hear that.

 

[PaulF]

The London Mayoral election isn’t going to be close at all.

Al a load of nonsense. First ward shows a swing to labour

Is that in one of the outer boroughs affected by the ulez expansion, or one of the no go areas for non Muslims?

--edit-- last few words firmly tongue in cheek. Hopefully not overstepped the mark.

[Lisan Al Gaib]

Greenwich was won by Khan last time wasn’t it?

I'm not sure but I'd expect so. I'd juste expect both areas to have swung to the Tories a little and not to Labour that's all

[gazzalfc]

Close then

But it shows that there are 27,708 voting age people in the Merseyside region happily vote tory 

[west_london_red]

West central won by Khan with another 5% swing to him

Overall swing now at nearly 6% across the 4 declared so far.

[TepidT2O]

West central won by Khan with another 5% swing to him

Overall swing now at nearly 6% across the 4 declared so far.

The first time the Tories have failed to win West London in the mayoral election.  The polls were right! Who knew!?

[jillcwhomever]

But it shows that there are 27,708 voting age people in the Merseyside region happily vote tory 

They were almost beaten by the Greens in truth.

[Kenny's Jacket]

But it shows that there are 27,708 voting age people in the Merseyside region happily vote tory 

There are 4,000 in the constituency (Walton) holding the 2 grounds 

[rob1966]

But it shows that there are 27,708 voting age people in the Merseyside region happily vote tory 

You've got to remember it covers Sefton and that has Hightown, Formby, Ainsdale and Southport in it, so you're going to find a load of dyed in the woll Tories in there who will vote Tory no matter what.

There are 4,000 in the constituency (Walton) holding the 2 grounds 

That I really struggle to understand. Then again, my dickhead Dad is from Walton (lives in the Swan now) and votes Tory