Topic: UK General Election - CLACTON

[Redbonnie]

Me neither

Its a discussion forum, I expressed a view.  You can react to that in different ways, challenge them, ignore them, agree with them or put me on ignore.

I am sure you want the tories out as much as anyone.and it’s not personal to you. My worry is we will need every possible vote and it will be a lot closer than people think.

[Redbonnie]

 I will always love Lorraine Kelly for cutting McVey dead live on TV. Legend.

[scalatore]

Can't say I like Starmer and the current Labour Party that much, but thank God we can get these Tories out. Saw a poll with absurdly low Tory seats a few weeks ago but I think they'll pull in a fair few votes by the time all is said and done, should still see them binned off easily though.

4th July is going to be a hell of a fun election date for us expats in the US too.

[oldfordie]

Can't say I like Starmer and the current Labour Party that much, but thank God we can get these Tories out. Saw a poll with absurdly low Tory seats a few weeks ago but I think they'll pull in a fair few votes by the time all is said and done, should still see them binned off easily though.

4th July is going to be a hell of a fun election date for us expats in the US too.

I think they will try and blind voters with stats to cloud the debates, I hope Labour never allow voters to forget the damage they have done to our country, the list is long, all run into the ground, they've done this by choice over the last 14 yrs.

[Cracking Left Foot]

I mean the fact that the rivers are now so full of shit that water is unsafe to drink in parts of the country should be enough to ensure that no Tory MP is ever elected again. And that’s just one of their many crimes.

People can say Red Tories all they like but I remember the last Labour government and nobody was letting privatised water companies dump sewage in the rivers

[Kashinoda]

Be eager to see YouGov's next MRP poll, the predicted seats from March polling:

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49061-yougov-mrp-labour-now-projected-to-win-over-400-seats

They were the only ones to get near the actual result in 2017 and were on the money in 2019:

Predicted:
Con 43% (359 Seats)
Lab 32% (211 Seats)
LD 14% (13 Seats)

Actual:
Con 43.6% (365 Seats)
Lab 31.1% (202 Seats)
LD 11.6% (11 Seats)

Interestingly, after me shitting on the idea of Southend going Labour in this thread the MRP poll is predicting it.

[Gerry Attrick]

Be eager to see YouGov's next MRP poll, the predicted seats from March polling:

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49061-yougov-mrp-labour-now-projected-to-win-over-400-seats

They were the only ones to get near the actual result in 2017 and were on the money in 2019:

Predicted:
Con 43% (359 Seats)
Lab 32% (211 Seats)
LD 14% (13 Seats)

Actual:
Con 43.6% (365 Seats)
Lab 31.1% (202 Seats)
LD 11.6% (11 Seats)

Interestingly, after me shitting on the idea of Southend going Labour in this thread the MRP poll is predicting it.

I think the problem for the Tories is every seat will have some kind of voting demographic that they’ve pissed off. Means a lot of seats that were previously off limits can become battlegrounds without Labour even really needing to offer much to win them over. Let’s be honest, Labour aren’t proposing revolutionary solutions to most problems, we just want people who won’t be evil and fuck things up.

[TepidT2O]

Phil
@Philmoorhouse76
"It can still be aborted." No it can't. Replacing him as leader doesn't stop him being Prime Minister. They'd need a majority of parliament (not just Conservative MPs) to do that. Whoever is behind this has no clue how elections, governments or even parliament works.
Quote
Politics UK
@PolitlcsUK
·
1h
Replying to @PolitlcsUK
Follow for the very latest political news!

Tory MP: "Today has clearly been an absolute disaster but the election is NOT irrevocable; up until the point of the Dissolution of Parliament - when the writs are moved to begin the contests, it can still be aborted."
Show more

https://x.com/Philmoorhouse76/status/1793389230921503124

I want an election, we desperately need one.  But I also want to see this happen, because it might actually see the, end up with under 100 MPs

I mean, I’ve woken up this morning, and yesterday really happened. He really fucked up that badly.

I think it’s the worst thing I’ve seen since Rudolph Guliani accidentally hired a garden centre rather than a hotel.

[Draex]

Phil
@Philmoorhouse76
"It can still be aborted." No it can't. Replacing him as leader doesn't stop him being Prime Minister. They'd need a majority of parliament (not just Conservative MPs) to do that. Whoever is behind this has no clue how elections, governments or even parliament works.
Quote
Politics UK
@PolitlcsUK
·
1h
Replying to @PolitlcsUK
Follow for the very latest political news!

Tory MP: "Today has clearly been an absolute disaster but the election is NOT irrevocable; up until the point of the Dissolution of Parliament - when the writs are moved to begin the contests, it can still be aborted."
Show more

https://x.com/Philmoorhouse76/status/1793389230921503124

The Tory’s have been diluting their gene pool for some time, full of absolutely morons these days like seagullis.

Time to get them all out forever.

[lobsterboy]

nobody forced him to take the job on.

His father in law says "hi"

[lobsterboy]

I think Sunak is sick of the shit show and want to fuck off out of parliament and into something much more lucrative. He's a self entitled little prick that can't take any responsibility for the last 14 years of fucking up the country.

£120 million in a year thanks to all the public contracts he gave to his wife is pretty lucrative

[hide5seek]

Useful analysis by Dylan Dyford
'Poll swing (Con/Lab) over a campaign has never exceeded 5pts in either direction and averages at just 1.7pts. The Tories need a swing from current polls of around 12pts to remain in power.
Obviously you can never rule anything out, not with today's more volatile electorate, but the announcement to final poll swing in the famously seismic 2017 campaign was just 3.8pts. Sunak needs more than thrice that to remain as PM'


x.com/Dylan_Difford/status/1793259034075676990

[west_london_red]

Leave request for the 5th July just gone in, let’s fucking do this!

[ChaChaMooMoo]

As someone living in Germany, it feels like UK has been having elections every year for a long long time.

[cornishscouser92]

As someone living in Germany, it feels like UK has been having elections every year for a long long time.

Last one was December 2019, which feels about 45 years ago.

[So… Howard Philips]

I want an election, we desperately need one.  But I also want to see this happen, because it might actually see the, end up with under 100 MPs

I mean, I’ve woken up this morning, and yesterday really happened. He really fucked up that badly.

I think it’s the worst thing I’ve seen since Rudolph Guliani accidentally hired a garden centre rather than a hotel.

At least Rishi’s hair is it’s natural colour and he didn’t have a rivulet of dye running down his face.

[ChaChaMooMoo]

I mean including the intermediate ones where Conservatives picked their leaders. That felt like an election from the outside.

[John C]

Its a discussion forum, I expressed a view.  You can react to that in different ways, challenge them, ignore them, agree with them or put me on ignore.

Instead of being on the childish offensive why don't you spend your time promoting the policies of the party you're going to vote for?
There's a chance some will be interested.

[Riquende]

Leave request for the 5th July just gone in, let’s fucking do this!

Me too, think I probably got in first as I put the request in before Sunak popped his head out into the downpour to make it official, but as someone else onthe team is on a full week off already it still might not get approved.

Be a pain if not as I'm not even WFH that day either.

I mean including the intermediate ones where Conservatives picked their leaders. That felt like an election from the outside.

Yeah, that's what I'd thought you meant. From the outside I suppose having a new PM announced, even as an internal party matter, might feel the same as a full election campaign going on.

[Libertine]

Useful analysis by Dylan Dyford
'Poll swing (Con/Lab) over a campaign has never exceeded 5pts in either direction and averages at just 1.7pts. The Tories need a swing from current polls of around 12pts to remain in power.
Obviously you can never rule anything out, not with today's more volatile electorate, but the announcement to final poll swing in the famously seismic 2017 campaign was just 3.8pts. Sunak needs more than thrice that to remain as PM'


x.com/Dylan_Difford/status/1793259034075676990

Strange, always thought the 2017 campaign swing was far higher. The conventional wisdom/memory of that was that May went from expecting a landslide win to a hung parliament.

[So… Howard Philips]

I mean including the intermediate ones where Conservatives picked their leaders. That felt like an election from the outside.

The whole Tory leadership finagle is a bit like the Everton and Chelsea managerial roundabout - the unspeakable replacing the unmentionable - in an endless möbius loop.

[Schmarn]

Sunak on Radio 4 trying to gaslight the public. He even fell back on the memo Liam Byrne left in 2010. Starmer and Labour need to be across the airwaves crushing them. Sunak has failed to meet 4 of his pitiful 5 pledges and reducing inflation by putting the country into a recession is a bit like changing the carpets by burning the house down.

Interesting that the Tory attack line is not that Labour’s policies are wrong or cost too much but that Starmer has changed his mind on policies. Such an easy line to counter - the Tories have bankrupted the country so there simply isn’t the money to do all the things we’d like such as the £28bn green fund. And is intractability better than changing your mind?

Of course most people won’t follow any of this but as a lover of elections I find the strategy fascinating.

[Libertine]

Sunak leading a general election campaign was always going to be a shitshow.

But not in Labour's wildest dreams could the first 24 hours started like this. And there are still 8 hours left!

[ChaChaMooMoo]

Yeah, that's what I'd thought you meant. From the outside I suppose having a new PM announced, even as an internal party matter, might feel the same as a full election campaign going on.

Exactly. Because the articles always read "UK elects new PM" or "UK PM resigns". Its technically electing the conservative party leader but by extension, they automatically become the PM. So for the international audience, mentioning the "New PL Elected" is easier to understand (and news worthy) than "Conservatives elect a new leader".

But on a side note, Are the labour promising another referendum to rejoin the EU?

[So… Howard Philips]

Exactly. Because the articles always read "UK elects new PM" or "UK PM resigns". Its technically electing the conservative party leader but by extension, they automatically become the PM. So for the international audience, mentioning the "New PL Elected" is easier to understand (and news worthy) than "Conservatives elect a new leader".

But on a side note, Are the labour promising another referendum to rejoin the EU?

The answe to you question is ‘No’ but they were certainly have a less fractious relationship with the EU.

They have enough Tory shite to clean up without creating another storm.

[Riquende]

But on a side note, Are the labour promising another referendum to rejoin the EU?

Absolutely not. They've been very vague over the EU, more understandable now given the distance to 2016, but Starmer has pretty much shut down any talk of even basic alignment, so to head off Tory attacks over rejoining.

With a stonking majority though, and with the apparent realities of what a 'closer' relationship might mean as a salve to the UK's economic woes, I wouldn't be surprised if some clever deals were made in specific areas. If the country feels like it's moving in the right direction, they should be able to weather the subsequent cries of "treachery" from the usual quarters.

[Lisan Al Gaib]

I want an election, we desperately need one.  But I also want to see this happen, because it might actually see the, end up with under 100 MPs

I'd like to see it happen as well. It would completely finish them I think and genuinely don't think the party would survive it.

[Kenny's Jacket]

I am sure you want the tories out as much as anyone.and it’s not personal to you. My worry is we will need every possible vote and it will be a lot closer than people think.

Of course I do

Mate this is by most standards an echo chamber, me not liking the top of the PLP wont be influencing anything. 

[Kenny's Jacket]

Is Gutu Hari Labour now 

[Lisan Al Gaib]

Absolutely not. They've been very vague over the EU, more understandable now given the distance to 2016, but Starmer has pretty much shut down any talk of even basic alignment, so to head off Tory attacks over rejoining.

With a stonking majority though, and with the apparent realities of what a 'closer' relationship might mean as a salve to the UK's economic woes, I wouldn't be surprised if some clever deals were made in specific areas. If the country feels like it's moving in the right direction, they should be able to weather the subsequent cries of "treachery" from the usual quarters.

I'm hoping that their plan is to try and stack the electorate so that another referendum on it would definitely pass so things like giving 16 and 17 year olds the vote and ensuring that those with settled status from EU countries who couldn't vote last time can vote this time. EU citizens couldn't vote last time unless from Ireland, Malta or Cyprus so having these two demographics on board could swing it. Rejoining the EU is fraught with danger though as we'd almost certainly be made to join the Eurozone and I remember the uproar when that was introduced from the folk in this country who didn't want it to happen.

[Ray K]

Sunak says on Today no flights to Rwanda before the election. Then he says ‘The plan has worked, but hasn’t happened yet.’

It's amazing just how bad he is at the politics stuff.

[Dr. Beaker]

Leave request for the 5th July just gone in, let’s fucking do this!

I look forward to spending the night with you - on here that is.

[Andy @ Allerton!]

I am sure you want the tories out as much as anyone.and it’s not personal to you. My worry is we will need every possible vote and it will be a lot closer than people think.

I've seen ex-'Corbynites' urging others not to vote Labour. That they are the same as the Tories. That Labour being in will make no difference.

They don't seem to post things to discuss why things got so much worse when Thatcher was in, or how they got much better when Labour got back in, or why things, again, got so much worse when the Tories got back in.

In this way, their arguments seem similar to Flat-Earthers - any information or additional knowledge all easily slides into and re-inforces what they know.

Everything about the Tories is dropped in favour or everything negative that can be posted about Labour or Starmer and they are clearly influencing others who agree and like and re-post their information.

Wouldn't surprise me to find that an AI bot is generating content for targetted individuals and groups who are then gleefully re-posting and liking and sharing and discussing without even once wondering where the source of the information is from.

[gazzalfc]

Oh please let Sunak put himself forward for a TV debate...

The turkeys have voted for Christmas and it's fucking glorious

https://www.gov.uk/register-to-vote

[Dr. Beaker]

The whole Tory leadership finagle is a bit like the Everton and Chelsea managerial roundabout - the unspeakable replacing the unmentionable - in an endless möbius loop.

A Mobius Dickus loop.

[Statto Red]

One annoyance is the election could have been held 28th June had Sunak called the election 24 hours earlier, you have to give minimum 25 working days notice & theirs 2 bank holidays in the next 2 weeks.

[Schmidt]

Have Labour given their opinion on the Rwanda scheme? That seems like a prime target for some scaremongering from the Tories. You can always rely on them to make immigrants an issue and you can always rely on the British public to be swayed by it.

[Andy @ Allerton!]

Have Labour given their opinion on the Rwanda scheme? That seems like a prime target for some scaremongering from the Tories. You can always rely on them to make immigrants an issue and you can always rely on the British public to be swayed by it.

The Tories have said that the flights will only go ahead after the election, so I think you are right.

Another public vote based on racism, bigotry and stupidity.

[So… Howard Philips]

I've seen ex-'Corbynites' urging others not to vote Labour. That they are the same as the Tories. That Labour being in will make no difference.

They don't seem to post things to discuss why things got so much worse when Thatcher was in, or how they got much better when Labour got back in, or why things, again, got so much worse when the Tories got back in.

In this way, their arguments seem similar to Flat-Earthers - any information or additional knowledge all easily slides into and re-inforces what they know.

Everything about the Tories is dropped in favour or everything negative that can be posted about Labour or Starmer and they are clearly influencing others who agree and like and re-post their information.

Wouldn't surprise me to find that an AI bot is generating content for targetted individuals and groups who are then gleefully re-posting and liking and sharing and discussing without even once wondering where the source of the information is from.

The malign actors bots and troll farms will certainly be working overtime now to stir dissent and shit - Unfortunately a man will believe what he wants to believe and disregard the rest.

[gazzalfc]

Frottage wont be running or getting involved in Reform stating that the American election is far more important

It is actually pretty bad news as it wont split the tory vote as much as it would have with that c*nt involved