Topic: UK General Election - CLACTON

[TheShanklyGates]

Thats fine mate. I just wanted to make sure you know that they are not aligned in the same way as say Starmer and Natalie Elphicke

Very good

[So… Howard Philips]

I voted for him in the leadership contest and I also think he's been a good leader, in that, following on from a poor and deeply, unpopular one.

I don't agree with everything he's done, particularly the Green Economy u-turn, but, he's steadied the ship.  He hasn't really had to do much, just wait and watch the Tories implode.  He's not very popular, but just by not being a Tory, that'll be good enough, for now.

For me, it's all about delivery and what they do in government.

That’s in one. We are selecting a Government to arrempt to overturn 14 years of crap, not a Big Brother contestant.

I realised earlier today I’ve been lurking/posting on this forum since 2010 and in that time we’ve always had a Tory regime running the country down!

[Ray K]

Brian Cox likes this 

 

[Red-Soldier]

That’s in one. We are selecting a Government to arrempt to overturn 14 years of crap, not a Big Brother contestant.

I realised earlier today I’ve been lurking/posting on this forum since 2010 and in that time we’ve always had a Tory regime running the country down!

It's depressing how many years we've lived, under these bastards. 

Bring back the late 90s, early 00s 

[Dr. Beaker]

I would have Corbyn as the Hodge and Starmer as Paisley (hopefully).

[west_london_red]

The country is going to spend £89,000,000,0000 (£89bn) on debt interest alone in 2024-25, which is more than the defence budget (£54bn) and Policing budget (£17bn) combined. The country has no money, what do people expect a new government to do? Borrow excessively and see the £89bn figure go up? Increase taxes?

You've got to be rational and practical about what can be raised and spent during the next 5 years.

Been saying that on here for ages using the same numbers, our debt isn’t sustainable in the medium term never mind the long term, we’re still borrowing £100 billion a year and adding to that £89 billion interest bill each year, something will have to give but no idea what it will be.

[Red Beret]

I'll be watching (streaming) from Europe and was wondering the same thing.

Well as I've told the TV Licensing people that I don't stream TV as it's broadcast so don't require a licence, I'm not sure how I can possibly keep track of election coverage except on here... with copious amounts of alcohol of course.

[west_london_red]

Thinking about it having a leader who is quite bland might be what we need, and what people will vote for after the boris bullshit factor, the truss total disaster , and the chaos and dishonesty of sunak people will be looking for a calmer government who just get on with the job without the total hyper bullshit of the last few years

This is one of the things that gets me, how is Sunak not labelled as boring by people? He’s no more interesting than Starmer.

[west_london_red]

Well as I've told the TV Licensing people that I don't stream TV as it's broadcast so don't require a licence, I'm not sure how I can possibly keep track of election coverage except on here... with copious amounts of alcohol of course.

Radio?

[Millie]

Well as I've told the TV Licensing people that I don't stream TV as it's broadcast so don't require a licence, I'm not sure how I can possibly keep track of election coverage except on here... with copious amounts of alcohol of course.

Radio - LBC maybe

[Red Beret]

This is one of the things that gets me, how is Sunak not labelled as boring by people? He’s no more interesting than Starmer.

He's a wet blanket. Literally.

Radio?

Radio - LBC maybe

Perhaps.

[Jiminy Cricket]

Well as I've told the TV Licensing people that I don't stream TV as it's broadcast so don't require a licence, I'm not sure how I can possibly keep track of election coverage except on here... with copious amounts of alcohol of course.

Yeah. A bit of a head-scratcher that. Whatever will you do!?

[Jiminy Cricket]

Radio?

Radio - LBC maybe

You still need a license for the radio, don't you? Though, as I seem to recall, it was cheaper. (I could be decades out of date.)

[west_london_red]

You still need a license for the radio, don't you? Though, as I seem to recall, it was cheaper. (I could be decades out of date.)

I wasn’t sure myself so I Googled it before I suggested it and it appears you don’t need a license.

The only discount as far as I know was if you had a black and white TV, that used to be slightly cheaper.

[Millie]

You still need a license for the radio, don't you? Though, as I seem to recall, it was cheaper. (I could be decades out of date.)

Not anymore.

[Red Beret]

Electoral Calculus has released a new poll. It shows a slight uptick in the predicted Tory seats, from 85 to 92. This doesn't surprise me, as this poll has probably been released at least a week earlier than normal. (I'm including last months for comparison.)

The interesting thing is that Labour's majority still goes up between the two, because Labour may take more seats from the SNP.

[Red Beret]

Yeah. A bit of a head-scratcher that. Whatever will you do!?

I know! It's almost like I have no legal recourse!

You still need a license for the radio, don't you? Though, as I seem to recall, it was cheaper. (I could be decades out of date.)

You are decades out of date. I don't think radio has needed a licence for donkey's years.

[killer-heels]

I think the Tories get under 100 seats. I reckon they get between 150-180, but imagine for a second they get between 90-120? Id seriously watch the election night coverage on continuous loop.

[Yorkykopite]

Am I making this my signature? Because that is an all-timer. Think about what you've just said there Yorky.

Well obviously it makes no sense at all if you rip the sentence from its context.

I think I've explained elsewhere what Klopp means to me.

[Sangria]

I think the Tories get under 100 seats.
I reckon they get between 150-180
imagine for a second they get between 90-120?

Are you Fabrizio Romano?

[CornerFlag]

Same, who's election coverage to watch? LBC and C4's coverage are good.

I'm still a BBC die-hard, but I'll not be watching if Kuenssberg is front and centre of the thing.

[TSC]

I'm still a BBC die-hard, but I'll not be watching if Kuenssberg is front and centre of the thing.

That would be a reason to watch the beeb coverage, just to watch Kuenssberg squirm.  I’d guess she’ll swerve it if possible

[Dr. Beaker]

Sky is quickest and the best coverage usually.

[Red Beret]

What to look out for in the campaign

The key electoral statistic is Labour's lead over the Conservatives. This needs to be about 5% for Labour to get a bare majority, and 10% for a comfortable majority. Tony Blair's lead in 1997 was 13% which resulted in a massive Labour landslide with a majority of 179. Labour's current lead of 21% should produce a majority bigger than Blair's.

The Conservatives will be hoping to reduce that. They might be hoping that the polls overstate Labour's lead as happened in 1992, when Neil Kinnock was (wrongly) predicted to become Prime Minister. And they will also hope that Keir Starmer underperforms when subject to the scrutiny of a campaign, like Theresa May did in 2017. The Conservatives will also try to win back disenchanted voters who have switched to Reform UK or are planning note to vote. There are sizeable numbers of both these groups, and their return would boost the Conservatives substantially.

Labour will be trying to win back seats both in the 'red wall' as well as new seats in the south of England. The polling evidence so far suggests that they could make big inroads in both places. They will also be hoping to do better in Scotland, where they could pick up over thirty seats from the SNP.

The Liberal Democrats will win seats where they can persuade centre-left voters that they are the anti-Conservative challenger rather than Labour. They should win several dozens seats that way, particularly in the south of England.

And the Greens will be trying to hold onto their Brighton Pavilion seat without Caroline Lucas, and also maybe make some gains in seats where they are strong on the local council. Bristol West is one seat they could win.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_gestart_20240523.html

[Dench57]

Well obviously it makes no sense at all if you rip the sentence from its context.

I think I've explained elsewhere what Klopp means to me.

Here's the full quote, and the context is analogies between LFC managers and Labour leaders

The better analogy is surely Corbyn as Hodgson. A great institution reduced to its lowest since 1935. Starmer is Klopp. Taught that institution to win again.

And let the record show that Yorky, of his own volition said, and I am quoting this verbatim, that if doing football analogies, Starmer is Klopp.

Ladies and gentlemen of the jury - the prosecution rests.

[Craig S]

Here's the full quote, and the context is analogies between LFC managers and Labour leaders

And let the record show that Yorky, of his own volition said, and I am quoting this verbatim, that if doing football analogies, Starmer is Klopp.

Ladies and gentlemen of the jury - the prosecution rests.

Objection!

2024 - 2010 = 14 years in wilderness without being on top. Permanent leaders in the interim = 3
2019 - 2005 = 14 years  in wilderness without being on top. Permanent leaders in the interim = 3

[Mutton Geoff]

Sky is quickest and the best coverage usually.

Not if they get ejected from the rooms

[TepidT2O]

I think the Tories get under 100 seats. I reckon they get between 150-180, but imagine for a second they get between 90-120? Id seriously watch the election night coverage on continuous loop.

I think I’ve got 192 on my prediction I did yesterday. 
It’s an odd year as very fine adjustments to the polling methodology can make huge differences. You can get an out come of  only 50 Tory seats with assumptions that are in no way silly.  On the flips side you can get sun 50 Labour majorities tweaking them the other way.

The question is, when do you stay up too?  I’ve got work the next day, I have to be realistic …. But there’s a Rees Mogg in the back of my mind that I might aim for.

Let’s be honest, our hearts all long for their total annihilation sun 60 seats …. That’s the dream.

[Yorkykopite]

Ladies and gentlemen of the jury - the prosecution rests.

As does the defence.

[Dr. Beaker]

Not if they get ejected from the rooms

That's a good sign.

[So… Howard Philips]

You still need a license for the radio, don't you? Though, as I seem to recall, it was cheaper. (I could be decades out of date.)

You don’t need a licence for a radio but you do for a wireless when listening to the Light Programme.

[TepidT2O]

You don’t need a licence for a radio but you do for a wireless when listening to the Light Programme.

itma repeats?

[So… Howard Philips]

itma repeats?

And Workers Playtime for all the Labour voting, cloth cap wearing, whippet owning oiks.

[killer-heels]

Are you Fabrizio Romano?

Sorry a typo. Meant to say i dont think the Tories get under 100 seats.

[Red Beret]

I think I’ve got 192 on my prediction I did yesterday. 
It’s an odd year as very fine adjustments to the polling methodology can make huge differences. You can get an out come of  only 50 Tory seats with assumptions that are in no way silly.  On the flips side you can get sun 50 Labour majorities tweaking them the other way.

The question is, when do you stay up too?  I’ve got work the next day, I have to be realistic …. But there’s a Rees Mogg in the back of my mind that I might aim for.

Let’s be honest, our hearts all long for their total annihilation sun 60 seats …. That’s the dream.

Honestly, at this point I'll be disappointed if the Tories get over 150 seats.

[filopastry]

Its a weird one as I think the Tories are so low now that you would expect it to close up a reasonable amount during the campaign, but I could equally imagine Sunak being far from impressive on the campaign trail.

[oldfordie]

Honestly, at this point I'll be disappointed if the Tories get over 150 seats.

I will as well. it's a pointer for the future. if they aren't hammered for what they've done now then forget any big change in the future, the Torys will still think they can con voters silly and get away with it.
It's the predictions of less than 90 and less, if it happens then it will be incredible, the Torys will know they went too far this time. they may even put in another hard right as leader but they won't last long. they will move to the center by the following election.

[TepidT2O]

I will as well. it's a pointer for the future. if they aren't hammered for what they've done now then forget any big change in the future, the Torys will still think they can con voters silly and get away with it.
It's the predictions of less than 90 and less, if it happens then it will be incredible, the Torys will know they went too far this time. they may even put in another hard right as leader but they won't last long. they will move to the center by the following election.

Remember that they still got 165 seats in 1997.  Cockroaches are indestructible

[Red Beret]

Its a weird one as I think the Tories are so low now that you would expect it to close up a reasonable amount during the campaign, but I could equally imagine Sunak being far from impressive on the campaign trail.

I think back in 1997 Labour's lead narrowed from around 20 points to a dozen, but that was nowhere near enough to save them. The average swing was 12%, but then you had those huge 18% swings in some critical areas.

I think one of the main reasons behind calling the election now was Sunak freaking out about falling further behind in the polls. They might recover from 20% to 15% during the election cycle in June; by October it might have been 25% going to 20%.

[Lisan Al Gaib]

Its a weird one as I think the Tories are so low now that you would expect it to close up a reasonable amount during the campaign, but I could equally imagine Sunak being far from impressive on the campaign trail.

I don't think you need to imagine it he's proven he's far out of his depth already with the election announcement, shoving a Sky news reporter out of the launch event and asking people in Wales if they were looking forward to "all the football"