Topic: The Race for Relegation 2023/24

[Kopenhagen]

Hard to see past Luton, Sheffield United, and Everton.

[Alisson Wonderland]

Remember last seaon when everyone said Bournemouth were dead certs to finish bottom and Forest had signed too many players so would definitely go down?

I wouldn’t totally write Luton and Sheffield United off.  Out of the two I think Luton have the better chance to stay up.  No one will like going there and they are a well coached team who have been cicling the play off places for a few seasons before they came up.

[theredguy03]

I predict Luton, Sheffield United and Nottingham Forest to go down.

Seems like Everton will be destined to always be part of the 'been in the Premier League every season' club.

[[new username under construction]]

Looks like Forest won't be paying their way out of trouble then

[Kenny's Jacket]

Luton, Sheffield United, The Bloooos

[tonysleft]

Surprised there aren't more Wolves shouts here.
 They've lost basically everyone and replaced no one and it sounds like Lopetegui might walk.

[Fortneef]

Forest?  Looked to me like they improved throughout last season, and with a settled side can do better.  Danilo/Gibbs-White/Brennan are good players.
The danger to them is the owner.

I think Luton will "do a Huddersfield"

[Son of Spion]

Surprised there aren't more Wolves shouts here.
 They've lost basically everyone and replaced no one and it sounds like Lopetegui might walk.

They flew under my radar, but I was reading this morning about the issues you mentioned. It doesn't look good for them, does it.

[Fromola]

Surprised there aren't more Wolves shouts here.
 They've lost basically everyone and replaced no one and it sounds like Lopetegui might walk.

Probably, they're taking FFP seriously which will fuck them, when Everton just ignored it and have gone unpunished.

Sheff United and Luton will go. Forest will struggle again, Palace could be down there and the likes of Brentford and Fulham won't do as well next season. Burnley could either do a Fulham from last season or just a Norwich.

Everton really should have gone last season but Leeds and Leicester completely collapsed, making stupid decisions over managers, and Brighton decided not to turn up against them. The field at the bottom looks way too weak this season.

[Fromola]

Forest?  Looked to me like they improved throughout last season, and with a settled side can do better.  Danilo/Gibbs-White/Brennan are good players.
The danger to them is the owner.

I think Luton will "do a Huddersfield"

Their home results could be interesting. Huddersfield staying up was a complete fluke though, all their numbers were awful (as were Forest's most of last season).

Huddersfield didn't even score in a majority of their games and were then hopeless the next season. They even got promoted with a negative goal difference.

[Crosby Nick]

Forest will be ok I think. Johnson, Gibbs-White and Awonyi look
Like they’ll have enough goals in them.

Feels obvious to say Luton and Sheff Utd. One might be capable of doing that first season over performance but really don’t have an idea.

Everton, Wolves, Bournemouth don’t look great either. Feels like there’s a fair bit of dross in the league this year.

[Chris~]

Bit surprised no one has mentioned Fulham unless I missed it. Top goal scorer wants out it will go, haven't brought in any real quality, played against 10 men more than anyone last and had the most penalties (unlikely to benefit from.both again) Had a poor end to the season last year after a good start as well so may have been figured out a bit.

I guess there isn't a lot of quality in the bottom 6 or so but could see them easily having a second season syndrome relegation.

[[new username under construction]]

Bit surprised no one has mentioned Fulham unless I missed it. Top goal scorer wants out it will go,

Hasn't he said he's happy to stay now?

[thejbs]

Bold shout of Abu Dhabi, but I don't think the case goes anywhere til next year.

[Fromola]

Bit surprised no one has mentioned Fulham unless I missed it. Top goal scorer wants out it will go, haven't brought in any real quality, played against 10 men more than anyone last and had the most penalties (unlikely to benefit from.both again) Had a poor end to the season last year after a good start as well so may have been figured out a bit.

I guess there isn't a lot of quality in the bottom 6 or so but could see them easily having a second season syndrome relegation.

They'll drop off a lot from last season, second season syndrome as well. Whether it's enough to go down or be in a relegation battle as well given the others down there.

[gjr1]

Luton, Shef Utd and weirdly I’ve gone for Brighton.

They’ve sold a load of players so far and I don’t know who they’ve bought to replace them.

They probably wont go down but I think they’ll have a poor season

[Oskar]

Sheffield United, Luton and Wolves.

[Fromola]

Luton, Shef Utd and weirdly I’ve gone for Brighton.

They’ve sold a load of players so far and I don’t know who they’ve bought to replace them.

They probably wont go down but I think they’ll have a poor season

Outside the big 6, Newcastle and Villa the other 12 could go down or at least flirt with it. Most would have had Leicester comfortably in mid table a year ago. Out the 12 though Brighton are the one who you could see back in the European places again though, but being in Europe will takes its toll as well.

The standard looks bad this year in the bottom half so it won't be difficult to finish 4th bottom. A lot of teams in bad situations over the window (West Ham, Everton, Fulham, Wolves, Palace etc).

[bird_lfc]

Luton, Everton, Wolves

[StevoHimself]

West Ham, Wolves, Luton

I'd take West Ham staying up on the final day at Everton's expense though.

[Barneylfc∗]

Luton, Shef Utd and weirdly I’ve gone for Brighton.

They’ve sold a load of players so far and I don’t know who they’ve bought to replace them.

They probably wont go down but I think they’ll have a poor season

So far they've only really got rid of 3 players from their first team squad last season. MacAllister, Sanchez and Undav.
They've brought in Milner, Joao Pedro, Mahmoud Dahoud, a centre back from Fiorentina and spent 20m on a keeper to replace Sanchez.

[Ray K]

Lopetegui looks like he'll be leaving Wolves with Gary O'Neil in line to take over. They've had a few shite transfer windows now, so wouldn't be surprised if they have a bad start and struggle all season.

[Oh Campione]

Wolves, Sheffield United and Luton seem the obvious picks at the moment.  Everton will escape again I'm afraid

[Peabee]

Which two blues voted for Liverpool? 

[A Red Abroad]

Which two blues voted for Liverpool? 

 

[rocco]

City
United
Chelsea

[Ray K]

City
United
Chelsea

Can't believe the Ev are going to stay up again, FML.

[Simplexity]

Wolves, Luton and someone random like Fulham.

[Elzar]

Sheff United have lost half their decent players, in an already weak squad. Luton will be hoping vibes keep them up. Everton will be going full Dycheball. Wolves have no idea what to do. Forest and Bournemouth will probably struggle again. Fulham have lost some key players.

Surely it's 3 from the above?

[Titi Camara]

Luton, Sheff United and Forest.

Could easily have gone for Bournemouth instead of Forest.

Equally I think Everton, Wolves, Fulham, Burnley or even West Ham could easily be pulled into a fight if they have a bad run of form, injuries to key players or just some bad luck!

[Bobsackamano]

See it being between 5 teams

Everton
West Ham
Luton
Sheffield United
Wolves

Hope Luton pull off a surprise and stay up (couldn't stand them last time they were in the top division, mainly due to their odious chairman David Evans)

It would be delicious if West Ham went down, that could well be the comedy channel this season with Moyes making them unwatchable and the hammers fans going nuts. Oh and Maguire now.

[Fromola]

Booked have priced it about right (Bet365).

Luton 1/3
Sheff Utd 4/7
Wolves 9/4
Nottm Forest 5/2
Bournemouth 5/2
Everton 3/1
Fulham 7/2
Burnley 7/2
Crystal Palace 7/1
Brentford 8/1
West Ham 9/1

Sheff United and Luton odds on to go and then Wolves most likely. Forest, Fulham  and Bournemouth a good chance a couple of them will struggle in their 2nd season after promotion which Everton will be relying on to see them okay again.

Burnley another newly promoted team so could either do a Fulham last year or a Norwich. Palace get Hodgson in full time is a complete lack of ambition and they're not really spending either, although he had a good run back end of last season he was a disaster at Watford the year before over a longer period.

[rafathegaffa83]

A good barometer of who is staying up/going down is if you were to take the three worst Goals For and Goals Against records for the clubs that stayed up during the most recent season and compare it to who was relegated the following campaign.

Last season, the three clubs that were not relegated with the worst Goals For were Wolves, Everton and Bournemouth. The three worst defensive records of those who stayed up were Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest and Tottenham.

Keep in mind over the past twenty-five seasons in all but three seasons (1998/99, 2007/08 and 2020/21), there has been an instance of at least one club who had either one of the three worst GA or GF records the season prior going down during the following season. Incidentally, if you look at the prior seasons each time this didn't occur there was a club with one of the three worst GF/GA records that somehow stayed up and probably should have gone down

- 1997/98 - Everton stay up on GD (Everton had the third worst GF of any team that stayed up)
- 2006/07 - the season of the Carlos Tevez controversy (West Ham had the 2nd worst GA and GF of any team that stayed up)
- 2019/20 - the COVID season that Villa stayed up in part due to a faulty VAR camera (Villa had the worst GA of any team that stayed up that year)

Notably in the three seasons that this has not happened - 1998/99, 2007/08 and 2020/21 -  two of the three teams that were relegated were newly promoted

If the past 25 seasons are anything to go by, there's a strong likelihood one of Wolves, Everton, Bournemouth or Forest are going down this season

Spoiler

2022/23 - Leeds (worst GA and 2nd worst GF season prior); Southampton 2nd worst GA season prior)
2021/22 - Burnley (worst GF season prior)
2020/21 - No affected teams were relegated
2019/20 - Bournemouth (worst GA season prior)
2018/19 - Huddersfield (worst GA season prior)
2017/18 - Stoke (3rd worst GF season prior); Swansea (worst GA season prior)
2016/17 - Sunderland (2nd worst GA season prior)
2015/16 - Aston Villa (2nd worst GA and GF season prior); Newcastle (worst GA season prior)
2014/15 - Hull (2nd worst GF season prior)
2013/14 - Norwich (2nd worst GF season prior); Fulham (3rd worst GA season prior)
2012/13 - QPR (2nd worst GA season prior); Wigan (3rd worst GF and GA season prior)
2011/12 - Wolves (2nd worst GA season prior)
2010/11 - West Ham (3rd worst GF season prior)
2009/10 - Portsmouth (3rd worst GF and GA season prior); Hull (worst GA season prior)
2008/09 - Newcastle (Worst GA and 2nd worst GF season prior);
2007/08 - No affected teams impacted
2006/07 - Charlton (3rd worst GF season prior)
2005/06 - WBA (2nd worst GF and worst GA season prior); Birmingham (3rd worst GF season prior)
2004/05 - Southampton (third worst GF season prior)
2003/04 - Leeds (2nd worst GA season prior)
2002/03 - Sunderland (worst GF season prior); West Ham (2nd worst GA season prior)
2001/02 - Derby (worst GF and 2nd worst GA season prior); Leicester (2nd worst GF season prior)
2000/01 - Bradford (worst GF and GA season prior)
1999/00 - Wimbledon (2nd worst GA season prior)
1998/99 - No affected teams impacted

[close]