Topic: The UK Economy - Is it the 1970's again?

[west_london_red]

So we have now got our bill for April for two 2-year olds in childcare which includes the new government support of 15 hours per child. We expected as a result our bill would go down a bit.

The actual result? My bill has gone up because to compensate for the government support, the nurseries put their costs up by 8% and started to charge for consumables such as food.

God, this country is fucking broken.

We had exactly the same with our oldest, hit 3 years old, thought we’d save some money with the 30 hours ‘free’ but actually ended up paying exactly the same, queried it with the nursery and ended up explaining it all to me it way that made sense but made absolutely no sense. With the younger one we just ended up sending him to a cheaper nursery, it wasn’t as good in terms of facilities and the general quality but compensated by sending him for 5 days instead of 3 that my older one did.

Edit: are you getting the 20% off through the tax free childcare scheme?

[Shankly998]

I've made up my mind to leave this country just waiting another year to be in the job for long enough to ask for an international transfer.
I can earn significantly more after tax in the role I'm in abroad and get a much bigger house in the same price bracket that UK houses are. Having a child has really shaken me out of my inertia if we can move somewhere else to that provides a significantly better quality got to do it. This country is going nowhere fast taxes are at a 70 year high and everything is still broken. When my little lad got ill and we were told better to drive him to hospital as it would be 4 hours for an ambulance and you consider with an ageing population it's not going to get better any time soon. Schools are crumbling and it'll probably be a PE teacher who teaches him maths  ather than someone qualified to do it. Childcare is so hideously expensive that we've worked out it's basically better for the wife to stay at home rather than go back to work. It's hard to ignore the parallels with Argentina a country that once had an income level similar to the states at the turn of the 20th century which declined largely due to political instability and while I don't think Britain will become that level of a basket case it shows there's no guarantee that a country will continue to be rich. Anyone else looking to leave?

[Lusty]

So we have now got our bill for April for two 2-year olds in childcare which includes the new government support of 15 hours per child. We expected as a result our bill would go down a bit.

The actual result? My bill has gone up because to compensate for the government support, the nurseries put their costs up by 8% and started to charge for consumables such as food.

God, this country is fucking broken.

At least it stayed open.  Ours had to close so we've had to move both the kids, one was due to start school this year as well so it's a massive upheaval for about 4 months for her.

They're closing up and down the country, they have to give out all this free childcare but the councils can't afford to pay the going rate so it's become an impossible business to run.

[killer-heels]

We had exactly the same with our oldest, hit 3 years old, thought we’d save some money with the 30 hours ‘free’ but actually ended up paying exactly the same, queried it with the nursery and ended up explaining it all to me it way that made sense but made absolutely no sense. With the younger one we just ended up sending him to a cheaper nursery, it wasn’t as good in terms of facilities and the general quality but compensated by sending him for 5 days instead of 3 that my older one did.

Edit: are you getting the 20% off through the tax free childcare scheme?

Just checked and i still get the 20% tax free so i do save around £250 compared to now. Thought initially that was junked.

Interesting that Labour are questioning whether they will stick to this plan though. Rumours are that they may junk it.

[west_london_red]

Just checked and i still get the 20% tax free so i do save around £250 compared to now. Thought initially that was junked.

Interesting that Labour are questioning whether they will stick to this plan though. Rumours are that they may junk it.

Its the first thing I tell anyone when they mention nursery, had a few parents at my kids nurseries who didnt know about it and a girl who used to work for me so I always try and spread the word.

Hopefully they dont junk it, but it does have some big flaws, mainly that the hourly rate per child the nursery receives is just over £5, they have to have one teacher/carer per 3 children so thats only £15 an hour per member of staff, from that they have to pay for staff, equipment, stationary, bills, etc which is why so many cant afford to do it.

[stewy17]

So we have now got our bill for April for two 2-year olds in childcare which includes the new government support of 15 hours per child. We expected as a result our bill would go down a bit.

The actual result? My bill has gone up because to compensate for the government support, the nurseries put their costs up by 8% and started to charge for consumables such as food.

God, this country is fucking broken.

This was obvious from the moment they announced the package. It was underworked and underestimated, as always, and was rushed through to beat Labour to the punch. Our friends have seen 30% daily increases to their fees in some nurseries. A swizz, as expected.

Labour should junk it and they should come back with a properly funded, workable solution. SPOILER: they won't.

[PaulF]

Just checked and i still get the 20% tax free so i do save around £250 compared to now. Thought initially that was junked.

Interesting that Labour are questioning whether they will stick to this plan though. Rumours are that they may junk it.

It probably won't be true when yours are old enough, but some private tuition companies accept childcare vouchers. We used one approaching gcse time for education top ups.

--edit--  I'm not sure, but I think you can get paid the vouchers pretax

[Wabaloolah]

Its the first thing I tell anyone when they mention nursery, had a few parents at my kids nurseries who didnt know about it and a girl who used to work for me so I always try and spread the word.

Hopefully they dont junk it, but it does have some big flaws, mainly that the hourly rate per child the nursery receives is just over £5, they have to have one teacher/carer per 3 children so thats only £15 an hour per member of staff, from that they have to pay for staff, equipment, stationary, bills, etc which is why so many cant afford to do it.

my current role is partly involved with supporting the Early Years sufficiency team at a London Borough with an IT system that manages Early Years Funding and loads of nurseries have closed in the last 12 months and guess what just when they are expecting an upsurge in places due to this rushed through policy they don't have enough places to meet the demand and they are hoping that childminders will step in to fill the void.

[killer-heels]

West Ham owner puts in bid for Royal Mail. That will be another national asset fucked off for money. Fuck you Tories, Vince Cable and Nick Clegg.

[Brissyred]

West Ham owner puts in bid for Royal Mail. That will be another national asset fucked off for money. Fuck you Tories, Vince Cable and Nick Clegg.

Scorched earth before being fucked off for a decade.

[west_london_red]

West Ham owner puts in bid for Royal Mail. That will be another national asset fucked off for money. Fuck you Tories, Vince Cable and Nick Clegg.

It was fucked off for money years ago when it was privatised by Cameron and Osborne

[thaddeus]

UK forecast for slowest growth of richest nations next year

The UK economy will see the slowest growth of the largest developed nations next year, according to forecasts.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) predicted that UK gross domestic product - a key measure of economic health - will rise by 1% in 2025.

This is below the rest of the G7 nations, which include Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the US.

...

The UK economy is now forecast to expand by 0.4% this year, a downgrade from the OECD's previous projection for 0.7% growth.

It means that for this year only Germany will see slower growth, it said.

...

Chancellor Jeremy C*nt said the OECD's forecast showed the UK was "winning the war" against inflation.

"This forecast is not particularly surprising given our priority for the last year has been to tackle inflation with higher interest rates", he wrote, adding that "growth matters".

Thank goodness for Hunt sacrificing economic growth in favour of cutting inflation.  Without him we'd have rampant inflation like the other G7 nations.

Latest recorded inflation figures (courtesy of https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate):
UK - 3.2%
Canada - 2.9%
France - 2.2%
Germany - 2.2%
Italy - 0.9%
Japan - 2.7%
USA - 3.5%

 

[west_london_red]

It’s the same every quarter or whenever they release these reports, the UK is faring worse than other G7 countries followed by UK growth forecasts have been downgraded.

[PaulF]

That USA figure is a problem though as it means the fed will probably keep a high rate, forcing us to.

[cornishscouser92]

That USA figure is a problem though as it means the fed will probably keep a high rate, forcing us to.

I can’t see rates being cut until Q3 or 4 this year to be honest

[killer-heels]

Royal Mail likely to be sold. Incredible how this country loves to flog its assets.

[lobsterboy]

Royal Mail likely to be sold. Incredible how this country loves to flog its assets.

Didn't Gideon sell it off 10 years ago?

[killer-heels]

Didn't Gideon sell it off 10 years ago?

You mean Vince Cable and the Liberal Democrats?

[Red-Soldier]

Royal Mail likely to be sold. Incredible how this country loves to flog its assets.

Czech billionnaire, apparently.

Privatisation has really benefited the UK, as a whole.

[Brissyred]

Privatisation has really benefited the UK, as a whole.

Don't know if serious?

[Baby Huey]

Don't know if serious?

Deadly...of course not.

[west_london_red]

Czech billionnaire, apparently.

Privatisation has really benefited the UK, as a whole.

Yup, water that isn’t safe to drink because of parasites… where’s Bob Gelfof and Lenny Henry when you need them?

[Shankly998]

  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cl5k58x9g83o

The chief executive of the London Stock Exchange has denied it is in crisis despite firms worth hundreds of billions of pounds quitting for the US.

Company bosses have told the BBC that the UK faces an “existential crisis” as big firms have either already left, are considering a move or have been bought by private foreign investors.

But Julia Hoggett said “there’s no sense of panic” as the UK "is already punching above its weight".

A Treasury spokesperson said the UK was "already one of the best places in the world to grow and secure investment" and it was working on ways "to improve the UK's competitiveness further”.

The Chancellor, Jeremy C*nt, will hold a summit of finance chiefs on Thursday to brainstorm how to boost the appeal of UK markets to domestic and international companies.

Having big companies' shares listed in the UK matters because other industries - such as insurance, accounting, law, pensions - cluster around them.

Financial services accounts for 10% of the whole UK economy and generates £90bn a year in tax - half the NHS budget.   

Further decline for the UK

[thaddeus]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cl5k58x9g83o

Further decline for the UK

But Julia Hoggett said “there’s no sense of panic” as the UK "is already punching above its weight".

It seems like the managed decline has inflitrated everything.  Don't worry though, Crispen Odey and Jacob Rees-Mogg made small fortunes by betting against the UK and almost certainly will continue to do so in the future.

[thejbs]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cl5k58x9g83o

Further decline for the UK

Loved this line. Sums up Tory Britain:

“ Chinese fast fashion giant Shein is considering London having hit snags with regulators in New York.”

[Gili Gulu]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cl5k58x9g83o

Further decline for the UK

Can you imagine the press in this country if there was a Labour Government?
The Mail, Express, Times, Telegraph would be going absolutely ballistic.

[gazzalfc]

Inflation down to 2.3%

Tories obviously trying to spin it as their plan working..

But the inflation value is based on the average over the last April-April period. Inflation in March last year was 10.1% so those figures 'dropped off' the calculation meaning there was always going to be a drop.

And the standard 'Inflation doesn't mean things are getting cheaper, it just means prices are not rising as fast.'

[thaddeus]

Inflation down to 2.3%

Tories obviously trying to spin it as their plan working..

But the inflation value is based on the average over the last April-April period. Inflation in March last year was 10.1% so those figures 'dropped off' the calculation meaning there was always going to be a drop.

And the standard 'Inflation doesn't mean things are getting cheaper, it just means prices are not rising as fast.'

Prepare yourself for another day of tone deaf gloating from the Tories and then, in a few weeks, the surprise that they haven't improved in the polls.

Baking in 25%+ (a lot more than that on many food items) inflation and then celebrating isn't going to wash with most people.

[TSC]

Inflation down to 2.3%

Tories obviously trying to spin it as their plan working..

But the inflation value is based on the average over the last April-April period. Inflation in March last year was 10.1% so those figures 'dropped off' the calculation meaning there was always going to be a drop.

And the standard 'Inflation doesn't mean things are getting cheaper, it just means prices are not rising as fast.'

Think it was expected to drop a bit more than that.  2.1% was mentioned yesterday by the forecast bods.

https://news.sky.com/story/money-news-latest-inflation-sky-news-blog-13040934

Of course Sunak is all over it already

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/05/22/rishi-sunak-latest-news-pmqs-inflation-keir-starmer-tories/

[PaulF]

It seems wages and services are still high though. Much of the drop is due to shocks of Ukraine now being baked in. It's the underlying wage price spiral that he and boe are terrified of. Let's see if Starmer raises it an pmq today. Though obvs won't be answered....

[reddebs]

Lots of staff reductions and company reorganising going on in the retail sector after the recent increases to the minimum wage.

Paul's place are going through a company wide reorganisation mainly aimed at assistant manager/supervisor level where some shops have more than needed to cover shift patterns.

Likewise Max Spielmanm/Thimpsons are no longer replacing staff that leave and increasing the weekly turnover targets before extra staff are recruited.

Morrisons are also going through similar where less staff are expected to do more work to cover for those let go.

I wonder how long it'll be before robots fully staff retail establishments?

[9 kemlyn road]

Lots of staff reductions and company reorganising going on in the retail sector after the recent increases to the minimum wage.

Paul's place are going through a company wide reorganisation mainly aimed at assistant manager/supervisor level where some shops have more than needed to cover shift patterns.

Likewise Max Spielmanm/Thimpsons are no longer replacing staff that leave and increasing the weekly turnover targets before extra staff are recruited.

Morrisons are also going through similar where less staff are expected to do more work to cover for those let go.

I wonder how long it'll be before robots fully staff retail establishments?

I watched that Greg Wallace bloke doing that program where he visits a factory to show how things are produced from start to finish.this one was a mcvities biscuit factory showing how the chocolate digestives were made etc.
From the start of the process as it went along there was less and less people involved and it was all high tech machines and computerised tech doing it with the odd person here and there to tweak things and keep an eye on stuff .and at the packing process there was no humans ,it was all robots packing stacking them ,taking them away .
It must have cost millions to set up but in the long run it pays for itself over and over.
No holiday pay ,no sickness pay ,unions to deal with over pay negotiations ,absenteeism to deal with ,staff recruitment,all dealt with .a work force 24 -7 ,365 days of the year hassle free and just a small work force to service and look after the process.
It’s a bosses dream but it’s very worrying what the future holds for the labour market as more companies that used to provide employment for hundreds or thousands take this route .

[reddebs]

I watched that Greg Wallace bloke doing that program where he visits a factory to show how things are produced from start to finish.this one was a mcvities biscuit factory showing how the chocolate digestives were made etc.
From the start of the process as it went along there was less and less people involved and it was all high tech machines and computerised tech doing it with the odd person here and there to tweak things and keep an eye on stuff .and at the packing process there was no humans ,it was all robots packing stacking them ,taking them away .
It must have cost millions to set up but in the long run it pays for itself over and over.
No holiday pay ,no sickness pay ,unions to deal with over pay negotiations ,absenteeism to deal with ,staff recruitment,all dealt with .a work force 24 -7 ,365 days of the year hassle free and just a small work force to service and look after the process.
It’s a bosses dream but it’s very worrying what the future holds for the labour market as more companies that used to provide employment for hundreds or thousands take this route .

Automation in factories/manufacturing has been happening for decades with warehousing now hot on it's heels.

Supermarkets have started the automation process with self serve tills, 24hr card only fuel etc so I'm sure it won't be long before a robot is doing the weekly shop, stacking shelves etc.

People are an expensive commodity that the world is finding harder to justify needing, except to keep buying the expensive tatt it produces.

There's no room to house us, not enough space to grow our food so I guess we'll eventually be phased out completely.

[9 kemlyn road]

Automation in factories/manufacturing has been happening for decades with warehousing now hot on it's heels.

Supermarkets have started the automation process with self serve tills, 24hr card only fuel etc so I'm sure it won't be long before a robot is doing the weekly shop, stacking shelves etc.

People are an expensive commodity that the world is finding harder to justify needing, except to keep buying the expensive tatt it produces.

There's no room to house us, not enough space to grow our food so I guess we'll eventually be phased out completely.

It’s what the future holds for the next generation’s young who traditionally would work in these industries and factories is my concern.it’s a sizeable portion of the workforce who are going to suffer not being able to get work.
As you say ,it’s common place in warehouses,Amazon for example with their gigantic warehouses have been leaders in this So to phase out human workers entirely must be their ultimate aim.again as you say supermarkets,it’s creeping in slowly but surely so it’s another route that is a traditional workplace which is lost to the labour market.
Maybe they’ll listen to esther rantzen and legalise euthanasia so they can bump us off .
Can’t work then you can’t live .

[reddebs]

It’s what the future holds for the next generation’s young who traditionally would work in these industries and factories is my concern.it’s a sizeable portion of the workforce who are going to suffer not being able to get work.
As you say ,it’s common place in warehouses,Amazon for example with their gigantic warehouses have been leaders in this So to phase out human workers entirely must be their ultimate aim.again as you say supermarkets,it’s creeping in slowly but surely so it’s another route that is a traditional workplace which is lost to the labour market.
Maybe they’ll listen to esther rantzen and legalise euthanasia so they can bump us off .
Can’t work then you can’t live .

Or we'll just bump ourselves off rather than suffer the indignity of needing to be looked after.  I sure as hell don't want the last couple of years my mum suffered.

[PaulF]

Are they saying its the rise in min wage that is effectively laying people off? It's always a balance pushing up the min wage but it has to be done.  The cost for those that lose their jobs though is huge.

[9 kemlyn road]

Or we'll just bump ourselves off rather than suffer the indignity of needing to be looked after.  I sure as hell don't want the last couple of years my mum suffered.

Yes lm sure it was a very distressing time for you .it was the same for our family as our mam suffered with her last 6 months, awful time .

[reddebs]

Are they saying its the rise in min wage that is effectively laying people off? It's always a balance pushing up the min wage but it has to be done.  The cost for those that lose their jobs though is huge.

Yes mate. 

The business can no longer justify paying 2 full time members of staff in a shop that turns over less than £3500 per week.

It used to be £2500, so basically a £1 per hour increase or £38 per week increase in wages requires an extra £1000 in the till to cover the additional expenses.

Of course it's an excuse to cut costs and force increased production so improving profits but the human costs, physically and mentally hasn't been quantified as one area manager pointed out to senior management at the rollout meeting.

How can you say on one hand that an area is undermanned by 105hrs then say anyone leaving won't be replaced?

[reddebs]

Yes lm sure it was a very distressing time for you .it was the same for our family as our mam suffered with her last 6 months, awful time .

Millions have been there's over the last 15yrs that these twats have presided over our futures mate.

[redbyrdz]

Lots of staff reductions and company reorganising going on in the retail sector after the recent increases to the minimum wage.

Paul's place are going through a company wide reorganisation mainly aimed at assistant manager/supervisor level where some shops have more than needed to cover shift patterns.

Likewise Max Spielmanm/Thimpsons are no longer replacing staff that leave and increasing the weekly turnover targets before extra staff are recruited.

Morrisons are also going through similar where less staff are expected to do more work to cover for those let go.

I wonder how long it'll be before robots fully staff retail establishments?

Nah, for shops ans small businesses, it will always be cheaper to pay a human minimum wage than buy and maintain a highly sophisticated robot.

The pecking order will be:

- Humans that develop, program, and maintain robots
- Robots doing well defined specialist tasks
- Poorly paid humans doing jobs too shit for robots






What really should happen with increased automatation is a reduction of normal.human working hours (while keeping income the same, ie increasing wages). If there is less work, it should be split more evenly across the working population. The way it's going, some people work so much they get sick, and others can't find work and get sick.