Topic: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE

[Lush is the best medicine...]

This looks bad for the US

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

The Coronavirus trajectories look grim

that number compared to China is horrendous when you take into account population

[AndyMuller]

Have to admit I’m getting worried seeing more and more younger people dying with no underlying health issues.

[oldfordie]

that number compared to China is horrendous when you take into account population

+ USA one of the most unhealthy countries in the world.

[Fordy]

Have to admit I’m getting worried seeing more and more younger people dying with no underlying health issues.

Stories like that were always going to come out to try to make the world take it seriously.

However, it's unlikely young people will die from it.

[newterp]

Stories like that were always going to come out to try to make the world take it seriously.

However, it's unlikely that most young people will die from it.

They will - but it won’t be in droves.

[kopite17]

Department of Health confirming that the case and death rate data today is not over a 24 hour period. Not sure the timescale on the number they released today

[S]

Department of Health confirming that the case and death rate data today is not over a 24 hour period. Not sure the timescale on the number they released today

Why the change I wonder?

[gamble]

Have to admit I’m getting worried seeing more and more younger people dying with no underlying health issues.

The worry is people have it, with no obvious symptoms (asymptotic) and pass it on to more vulnerable individuals.

Don’t understand why they are changing the method of reporting deaths, the numbers are very important so we know how far into this we really are.

[Sammy5IsAlive]

This looks bad for the US

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

The Coronavirus trajectories look grim

I think we are getting to the point where putting the US on a graph of cumulative cases/deaths will be misleading. A virus like this spreads linearly 'horizontally' (i.e across a map) but exponentially 'vertically' (the increase in cases in a specified area). The USA as a nation covers 9.8m square km. The whole of Europe covers 10.2m and (depending on where you draw the boundaries) is split into c.50 separate nations. The current spikes in Italy and Spain are counted separately in 'Europe' terms but are in the same country in USA terms.

So to make meaningful comparisions you need to break the US data down into smaller geographical/political units. Going by that measure (and the single graph breaking things down that way) things look really awful for New York, and if the same pattern appears in the other major cities, for their country as a whole.     

[Lotus Eater]

Look at it this way.

Apparently there are four coronaviruses that are in circulation in the world on a perpetual basis that make up the common flu we see today.

Err... 4 STRAINS make up a flu vaccine.
H1N1, H3N2, and 2 B strains.

From what I read, nothing says Flu is a Coronavirus but please correct me if I’m wrong.

It’s maybe similar to flu in being “seasonal” I.e. Prevalent in Winter seasons for both northern and Southern Hemisphere

[Roady]

I think we are getting to the point where putting the US on a graph of cumulative cases/deaths will be misleading. A virus like this spreads linearly 'horizontally' (i.e across a map) but exponentially 'vertically' (the increase in cases in a specified area). The USA as a nation covers 9.8m square km. The whole of Europe covers 10.2m and (depending on where you draw the boundaries) is split into c.50 separate nations. The current spikes in Italy and Spain are counted separately in 'Europe' terms but are in the same country in USA terms.

So to make meaningful comparisions you need to break the US data down into smaller geographical/political units. Going by that measure (and the single graph breaking things down that way) things look really awful for New York, and if the same pattern appears in the other major cities, for their country as a whole.     

Things are really really shit here in Spain at the minute. Unfortunately I see the UK being a hell of a lot worse than us in two or three weeks.

[Black Bull Nova]

I think we are getting to the point where putting the US on a graph of cumulative cases/deaths will be misleading. A virus like this spreads linearly 'horizontally' (i.e across a map) but exponentially 'vertically' (the increase in cases in a specified area). The USA as a nation covers 9.8m square km. The whole of Europe covers 10.2m and (depending on where you draw the boundaries) is split into c.50 separate nations. The current spikes in Italy and Spain are counted separately in 'Europe' terms but are in the same country in USA terms.

So to make meaningful comparisions you need to break the US data down into smaller geographical/political units. Going by that measure (and the single graph breaking things down that way) things look really awful for New York, and if the same pattern appears in the other major cities, for their country as a whole.     

We all knew that Trump in charge was going to create damage somewhere, we assumed Korea or Iran but it looks like most of the damage will be to his own country. I suspect though that given Covid will strike faster and harder in cities and poorer areas without access to health care that he personally will just see this as enhancing his election chances and that as long as the virus takes longer to reach his heartlands it will be good for him. I'm damn sure that's the way this man thinks. You don't need conspiracy theories with Trump, they are in the open.

[Priest078]

Mates sister was on the Coronavirus ward at Royal Preston hospital last night. 10 on ventilators 2 died . Grim

[ShakaHislop]

Department of Health confirming that the case and death rate data today is not over a 24 hour period. Not sure the timescale on the number they released today

Just adding a source for this

https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208

[soxfan]

I think we are getting to the point where putting the US on a graph of cumulative cases/deaths will be misleading. A virus like this spreads linearly 'horizontally' (i.e across a map) but exponentially 'vertically' (the increase in cases in a specified area). The USA as a nation covers 9.8m square km. The whole of Europe covers 10.2m and (depending on where you draw the boundaries) is split into c.50 separate nations. The current spikes in Italy and Spain are counted separately in 'Europe' terms but are in the same country in USA terms.

So to make meaningful comparisions you need to break the US data down into smaller geographical/political units. Going by that measure (and the single graph breaking things down that way) things look really awful for New York, and if the same pattern appears in the other major cities, for their country as a whole.     

Well here's just what you're wondering...I've tracked these three states for a week now. It's building in an ominous manner. I'm hoping the sharp growth rate is mostly due to a lack of test kits in past weeks, because if it keeps spreading at this rate...

COVID-19 FROM 3/18-3/25

Massachusetts, Rhode Island & Connecticut combined

CASES:
3/18 - 337
3/25 - 2845
increase of 844%

DEATHS:
3/18 - 1
3/25 - 34
increase of 3400%

if projected out one week, same growth rate

CASES:
3/25 - 2845
4/1 - 24,011 pj
increase of 844% pj

DEATHS:
3/25 - 34
4/1 - 1156 pj
increase of 3400% pj
 

[lamad]

Look at it this way.
Apparently there are four coronaviruses that are in circulation in the world on a perpetual basis that make up the common flu we see today. Some will kill patients who have been weakened due to them developing respiratory infections. The death rate for this flu has been accepted as an annual event, because to try to get rid of that flu will have major economic consequences, like we do now.

Oddly enough, if the action we take now works, we may put an end to some of these strains as a side benefit, but literally no one knows if that will happen. But it is a scientific possibility that we can eliminate a couple of the current flu viruses if a majority of the world's population gets immunized, which is never going to happen voluntarily. Which means that we always had the choice to save those people who die from the flu every year, but in the end, we chose not to, because of money, and perhaps because of the ignorance of the masses.

On the other hand, Covid-19 develops into a resipratory illness which is a very severe form of pneumonia. The current death rate hovering around 3-4% it seems at the latest estimate, is not necessarily the actual death rate of this virus in a vaccum. If the people who suffer from this receive no treatment at all, the death rate can be much, much worse (and it is hard to predict how much worse it can be). So the line has been drawn in the sand, that regardless of economic consequences, we have to stop this one now. This is how dangerous this virus is, because this virus can kill a lot more, if we don't do something about it.

You are confusing viruses; there are four coronaviruses among two hundred or so rhinoviruses that result in what is called a common cold and not generally is a severe health threat. None of those coronaviruses cause the flu. The flu, which is a threat, is caused by an influenza virus. And for the flu there actually is a vaccine (although it could be debated why not more people, at least those with health problems, get a flu shot once a year).
It is also too early to properly assess the exact death rate for COVID-19, because how many people have had it and had their own body deal with it relatively easy is just an estimate at this point.

[Sammy5IsAlive]

Things are really really shit here in Spain at the minute. Unfortunately I see the UK being a hell of a lot worse than us in two or three weeks.

In terms of the increase in case numbers I'm expecting London to be worse than Madrid/Lombardy and Birmingham to be about the same. In terms of deaths I've no idea - on the one hand I think it is fair to say that the NHS is under-resourced compared to its continental equivalents but on the other hand we have had 1 week on Spain and two weeks on Italy to prepare logistically and potentially for public behaviours to have changed a little sooner. The latter might be too late in London but hopefully will have come 'online' in time that other areas of the country will be able to keep on top of things and take some of the medical load off the hotspots (again that kind of pooling/allocation of resources is much more achievable the more lead up time you have logistically).

[Lush is the best medicine...]

+ USA one of the most unhealthy countries in the world.

yup, could be horrific there

[The North Bank]

yup, could be horrific there

They just need to get through the next 2 weeks, infection stops spreading on Easter Sunday, Trump likes Easter, wouldn't it be nice, if it all ends on Easter.

[oldfordie]

yup, could be horrific there

I think it will be. it would be a nightmare to control for any decent competent President, Trump is anything but a decent competent president. the USA has a bluff merchant in charge when it faces a nightmare, the Jaws mayor analogy is fitting.

[Sammy5IsAlive]

Well here's just what you're wondering...I've tracked these three states for a week now. It's building in an ominous manner. I'm hoping the sharp growth rate is mostly due to a lack of test kits in past weeks, because if it keeps spreading at this rate...

COVID-19 FROM 3/18-3/25

Massachusetts, Rhode Island & Connecticut combined

CASES:
3/18 - 337
3/25 - 2845
increase of 844%

DEATHS:
3/18 - 1
3/25 - 34
increase of 3400%

if projected out one week, same growth rate

CASES:
3/25 - 2845
4/1 - 24,011 pj
increase of 844% pj

DEATHS:
3/25 - 34
4/1 - 1156 pj
increase of 3400% pj

That increase in case numbers is broadly the same as we've seen in Europe over 7 day periods from similar starting points. I'd suggest it represents the 'uncontrolled' spread of infections i.e. the spread before any implementation of lockdown measures and changes in public behaviour.

In terms of getting an idea of the impact of the virus compared to elsewhere I don't think you'll know for 2-3 weeks in terms of numbers of deaths (evaluating how resilient health services are to the strain being put on them) and 4-6 weeks in terms of whether the active case numbers start to level off and start declining (evaluating the speed and effectiveness of the lockdown measures).     

In the UK I think we are just about to hit that first stage.

[djahern]

Does anyone know when worldmeters updated the UK numbers for serious/critical cases? Was on 20 for the last few weeks so I guess UK weren’t reporting that number but now I see it’s at 163.

And anyone know where this information came from?

Edit: found it, the data is from 196 patients admitted between feb 29th and March 19th and was compiled by the intensive care national audit and research centre.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-first-analysis-reveals-trends-in-uks-critical-cases-11962457

[soxfan]

That increase in case numbers is broadly the same as we've seen in Europe over 7 day periods from similar starting points. I'd suggest it represents the 'uncontrolled' spread of infections i.e. the spread before any implementation of lockdown measures and changes in public behaviour.

In terms of getting an idea of the impact of the virus compared to elsewhere I don't think you'll know for 2-3 weeks in terms of numbers of deaths (evaluating how resilient health services are to the strain being put on them) and 4-6 weeks in terms of whether the active case numbers start to level off and start declining (evaluating the speed and effectiveness of the lockdown measures).   

Looking at the worldometer, the US will pass Italy and likely China within 2-3 days in terms of cases. Over 11,000 added TODAY.

[afc tukrish]

my partner's mother is a GP and one of her patients tested positive, plus the neighbours have just announced today that they've been "feeling unwell" for some time - so today we got tested. Results tomorrow.

Fingers crossed for you, your partner and her mom mum...

[MBL?]

Has anyone here volunteered in their country?

Obviously it needs to be done the right way but I feel horrible that I can’t help my parents who are at the other end of the country, they do have help there but I still feel poxy about it. If any Irish reds have or know anything about it I’d be happy to help.

[Sammy5IsAlive]

Looking at the worldometer, the US will pass Italy and likely China within 2-3 days in terms of cases. Over 11,000 added TODAY.

That's what I was saying earlier though - in terms of cases that is inevitable. The US has a population of 330 million. Italy and Hubei have populations of 60m.

I think you are on the right lines in terms of looking at more local statistics but in the area you are looking at I don't think that they will tell you a great deal for a couple of weeks.

[J-Mc-]

Just signed up for JSA and Universal Credit (2nd mainly because I think JSA will turn me down.)

Wait time for JSA, 14 days,

Wait time to get through to the identify verification website for UC, so far i've been in a queue for 40 minutes with 44,000 people in front of me...at 2am in the morning.

They've truly fucked up on the workers support.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Just signed up for JSA and Universal Credit (2nd mainly because I think JSA will turn me down.)

Wait time for JSA, 14 days,

Wait time to get through to the identify verification website for UC, so far i've been in a queue for 40 minutes with 44,000 people in front of me...at 2am in the morning.

They've truly fucked up on the workers support.

better than the bulk sales though!

I think it will be. it would be a nightmare to control for any decent competent President, Trump is anything but a decent competent president. the USA has a bluff merchant in charge when it faces a nightmare, the Jaws mayor analogy is fitting.

A competent one (eg his predecessor) or one who isn’t an arrogant imbecile (eg his predecessors predecessor) would have done a much better job of containment and letting the actual experts deal with it (and they wouldn’t have binned the pandemic department to save a few pennies two years ago), sadly there seem to be a lot who think he’s amazing and doing brilliantly, his old joke of how he can walk down Times Square and shoot a load of people and it wouldn’t lose him his hardcore vote is painfully true

[oldfordie]

A competent one (eg his predecessor) or one who isn’t an arrogant imbecile (eg his predecessors predecessor) would have done a much better job of containment and letting the actual experts deal with it (and they wouldn’t have binned the pandemic department to save a few pennies two years ago), sadly there seem to be a lot who think he’s amazing and doing brilliantly, his old joke of how he can walk down Times Square and shoot a load of people and it wouldn’t lose him his hardcore vote is painfully true

Cant say am certain how Trump comes out of this but a lot of people are going to loose close family members, a lot of people are going to loose jobs and businesses, countries may refuse flights from the USA when the tide turns against the virus until they get their act together, it will shame the USA, the South may love his packed churches at Easter statement but I think it will come back to haunt him considering how the rest of the worlds reacting,

[Trada]

BNO Newsroom
‏Verified account @BNODesk

Over the past 24 hours, the U.S. reported 14,024 new cases of coronavirus and 265 new deaths, raising the total to 68,347 cases and 1,037 dead

[Trada]

Just signed up for JSA and Universal Credit (2nd mainly because I think JSA will turn me down.)

Wait time for JSA, 14 days,

Wait time to get through to the identify verification website for UC, so far i've been in a queue for 40 minutes with 44,000 people in front of me...at 2am in the morning.

They've truly fucked up on the workers support.

Surely it would have been easier for the Tories to go for the National wage like a lot of countries have, odds on Labour would have.

I bet the Tories were worried that it would be hard to take away again afterwards.

[kavah]

A letter in the FT about the Oxford study (that was discussed on here yesterday)
The Oxford study figure has no empirical justification [from]
Tim Colbourn
Associate Professor of Global Health Epidemiology and Evaluation, UCL Institute for Global Health, London, UK

Anna Odone
Associate Professor of Public Health, University Vita-Salute San Raffaele, Milan, Italy

Walter Ricciardi
Professor of Hygiene and Public Health, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Roma, Italy

Elio Riboli
Professor in Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, UK

Nisreen Alwan
Associate Professor in Public Health, University of Southampton, UK

Martin McKee
Professor of European Public Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine

https://www.ft.com/content/ebab9fcc-6e8d-11ea-9bca-bf503995cd6f?shareType=nongift

[TSC]

A letter in the FT about the Oxford study (that was discussed on here yesterday)
The Oxford study figure has no empirical justification [from]
Tim Colbourn
Associate Professor of Global Health Epidemiology and Evaluation, UCL Institute for Global Health, London, UK

Anna Odone
Associate Professor of Public Health, University Vita-Salute San Raffaele, Milan, Italy

Walter Ricciardi
Professor of Hygiene and Public Health, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Roma, Italy

Elio Riboli
Professor in Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, UK

Nisreen Alwan
Associate Professor in Public Health, University of Southampton, UK

Martin McKee
Professor of European Public Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine

https://www.ft.com/content/ebab9fcc-6e8d-11ea-9bca-bf503995cd6f?shareType=nongift

Same was confirmed yesterday by Prof Mark Ferguson (co author of the Imperial college report that’s informing current Govt strategy) when he appeared in front of the scientific select committee.

[Felch Aid]

Banks wanting personal guarantees for loans. Charlatans.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52043896

[Something Worse]

Banks wanting personal guarantees for loans. Charlatans.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52043896

Banks over here are charging interest on deferred mortgages too, so you end up coming out behind where you were going into it.

Hope they all fucking fail. We can hunt bankers for sport, or food.

[Zeb]

A letter in the FT about the Oxford study (that was discussed on here yesterday)
The Oxford study figure has no empirical justification [from]
https://www.ft.com/content/ebab9fcc-6e8d-11ea-9bca-bf503995cd6f?shareType=nongift

One evolutionary biologist and epidemiologist summed it up as:

"Imagine if I were to write a paper about a thought experiment: "Could evolution work if animals didn't die?"

Well, the equivalent FT headline would read "We may be immortal — University of Washington study."

It's that bad."

(Bergstrom)

[Alan_X]

How are they measuring recovered? If it’s a test one after the patient confirms no symptoms, it depends on when that test is taken or what period after the symptoms they count as recovered. I imagine they’re not really concentrating on that statistic at the moment, just treating the sick. There’ll be delays for those numbers.

Recovered are cases that have been hospitalised and are now discharged. At the moment the majority of critical cases are still in hospital, taking up beds and ventilators.

[PeterJM]

Banks over here are charging interest on deferred mortgages too, so you end up coming out behind where you were going into it.

Hope they all fucking fail. We can hunt bankers for sport, or food.

So in 3 months it becomes even more unaffordable when the payments resume which is the reason I swerved the offer from RBS who we helped to bail out in 2008.It goes to prove that you don’t get something for nothing off a bank.

[PaulF]

Saw an example on the bank of Ireland site. Something like 15 years left. Monthly payment now £555. After 3 month holiday £565. For £1500 when I really need it, that doesn't seem too bad. Note for those considering that have mortgage terms about to end, be careful. Banks may not let you switch product so you will be stuck on SVR. Also the rate cut for those on trackers should have helped.

[PaulF]

Did they say obesity was a factor? That won't bode well for USA