Topic: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"

[PatriotScouser]

Of course I don't support prorogation but:

1. Parliament legislated for a two-year negotiation with no-deal as the legal default.
2. Parliament voted for triggering Article 50 and the European Withdrawal Act.
3. Parliament voted down a deal and failed to vote for an alternative.

So:

1. If Johnson's gamble that parliament is too incompetent to stop him, he's probably right.
2. Come the inevitable general election, Johnson will argue that he's simply implementing parliament's own laws despite the contrived protestations and ulterior motives of some MPs.

And:

1. The Lib Dems will never unite with Labour because they want to win Tory marginals in the South East.
2. Labour will never unite with the Lib Dems because it has to represent Leave and Remain voters at once.
3. The SNP will relegate every objective behind independence.

The whole point is to force Labour to move a motion of no confidence. If it succeeds, Boris has the ideal pretext for an election: having spent two years undermining Britain's negotiating position, tell parliament to implement its own policy.

[Jiminy Cricket]

Corbyn:

"The fight starts now".







































OK, I made that up - this time. Though, it still might come.

[lobsterboy]

We are perhaps getting someway off the point

It is a concern that parliament has been somewhat dissolved.

But really it is only of much use for anyone with article 50 looking over us like a sword of Damocles.

And is Corbyn far left or just left? Who fucking cares?

He’s shit.  He voted for article 50.  He is politically inept and made this possible.  That’s not to say it’s his fault, the blame lies with the Tories. But he gave them the free reign to do this.

Without Corbyn Brexit would look very different and that’s irrespective of whether you agree with his politics.

Corbyn's a huge part of the problem.
He will never be electable, even against some of the worst and most inept Tory pm's imaginable.
A more centrist Labour would have been a shoe-in for Government after the damage done to society by Cameron and May.
Yet the Tory's limp on, propped up by religious nutters from NI simply because Corbyn appears even worse to the general public.
If Corbyn had any honor he would step down because he has failed outright.
Don't hold your breath though, because he is in it for Jeremy first and foremost.

[gazzalfc]

Treating politics like supporting football teams is how we got into this mess in the first place.

[killer-heels]

Has Swinson accepted the premise that she may need to back Jezza for PM then? Or is she still under the illusion that she is all powerful?

[bigbonedrawky]

Treating politics like supporting football teams is how we got into this mess in the first place.

Nail on head...Fanaticism in footbal is fun, you can be as bias as you like, but it should be left to the football.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Treating politics like supporting football teams is how we got into this mess in the first place.

gets you votes and it basically turns your supporters into surrogates in everyday life though, can’t see anyone wanting to give that up to be honest

[Lusty]

Has Swinson accepted the premise that she may need to back Jezza for PM then? Or is she still under the illusion that she is all powerful?

She's just requested an urgent meeting with the Queen, so...

[Snail]

The Queen's agreed to this horseshite, of course.

[reniformis]

Corbyn's a huge part of the problem.
He will never be electable, even against some of the worst and most inept Tory pm's imaginable.

Have to agree. Not because I think Corbyn's wrong but because we live in a default Tory nation. This nation has only elected 2 different labour PM's since 1951. Nearly 70 years. In that time there's been 7 tories (8 if you include May's minority government). If Gaitskell, Callaghan, Foot, Kinnock, Brown, Milliband and Corbyn himself have already been rejected at the ballot box, what makes anyone think it'll suddenly change next time? Maybe a disastrous Brexit under the Bullingdon twat? I'd rather have a Labour PM without it thanks.

[RedGlen]

Has Swinson accepted the premise that she may need to back Jezza for PM then? Or is she still under the illusion that she is all powerful?

Even if Swinson does back Corbyn, its very very likely he is unable to gather a sufficient number of backers to lead a government. Which was Swinsons point in the first place. Ergo Corbyn had the choice of nominating someone else from Labour who could command a majority. Of course, that would probably show him up for his inability to lead, which is the bald truth, but one he and many of his supporters refuse to acknowledge.

He isn't a good leader, he's weak on just about everything but speeches in front of his own fervent supporters. If he was truly invested in the future of the country, he could demonstrate his willingness for country over party by stepping aside for someone who could lead a majority. Sadly that doesn't appear to be the case, he's a brexiteer, all his actions so far say thus. He wants brexit to happen and then he wants to run and win a GE, and he's willing to let the country crash out to achieve that. Hypothethical scenario - if somehow the remain alliance win, and Labour are the main party in a coalition, would Corbyn campaign for renouncement of article 50? Or would he seek a labour negotiated brexit?  The answer to that question highlights why he cant command a majority for a remain alliance.     

[GBF]

The Queen's agreed to this horseshite, of course.

she accepts anything...Boris could have slip a permission for the queen to kiss his greasy arse and she would have accepted

[RedGlen]

I  wonder what the reaction will be up here in Scotland over the next few months, latest polls show a majority for independence for the first time ever. Will we see that strengthen?

[Alan_X]

Has Swinson accepted the premise that she may need to back Jezza for PM then? Or is she still under the illusion that she is all powerful?

It's probably safe to say that you never actually read what she said. Her point was that Corbyn couldn't command enough cross party support to lead a Government of National Unity so an alternative was required. She's almost certainly right in that view and we have now wasted more time arguing the toss over Corbyn when by standing aside there would be a far better prospect of stopping Johnson.

[Zeb]

I  wonder what the reaction will be up here in Scotland over the next few months, latest polls show a majority for independence for the first time ever. Will we see that strengthen?

Was missing Iain Banks today - always used to buy his latest novel in late summer for holiday - and was reminded of what he said back in 2013.

"I think there will be a political rebalancing and we'll stop swinging round to the right. In the unlikely event that I'm around for the referendum on Scottish independence I'm definitely voting 'yes'. I was saying last year that if we don't get it in 2014 we'll get it in my lifetime and now it turns out my lifetime might not extend as far as the first referendum and that just seems wrong – a Scotland still shackled to a rightwing England, especially with the rise of the bizarrely named Ukip (I think they'll find their acronym should be EIP actually) – I won't be sorry to be missing that. I won't miss waiting for the next financial disaster because we haven't dealt with the underlying causes of the last one. Nor will I be disappointed not to experience the results of the proto-fascism that's rearing its grisly head right now. It's the utter idiocy, the sheer wrong-headedness of the response that beggars belief. I mean, your society's broken, so who should we blame? Should we blame the rich, powerful people who caused it? No let's blame the people with no power and no money and these immigrants who don't even have the vote, yeah it must be their fucking fault. So I might escape having to witness even greater catastrophe.

"I think the referendum is going to be defeated, though I don't accept the argument that the whole question will just go away. It'll be back in five, 10 years again depending on the complexion of the next Westminster government. So, yes, I'm annoyed I won't get to vote in the referendum. I'm annoyed I won't get to ride an Edinburgh tram and I'm annoyed I won't get to go on the new Fife crossing.

Guardian interview.

If ambivalent Wales is shifting from Labour to PC (for the Assembly, at least, at the moment) then I think there's a better than fair chance that Johnson breaks the Union with Scotland having the loudest initial voice.

[killer-heels]

It's probably safe to say that you never actually read what she said. Her point was that Corbyn couldn't command enough cross party support to lead a Government of National Unity so an alternative was required. She's almost certainly right in that view and we have now wasted more time arguing the toss over Corbyn when by standing aside there would be a far better prospect of stopping Johnson.

Fair enough, I guess there is a nice Tory candidate that would be more palatable to her.

[RedGlen]

Was missing Iain Banks today - always used to buy his latest novel in late summer for holiday - and was reminded of what he said back in 2013.

Guardian interview.

If ambivalent Wales is shifting from Labour to PC (for the Assembly, at least, at the moment) then I think there's a better than fair chance that Johnson breaks the Union with Scotland having the loudest initial voice.

An excellent writer, and an excellent interview. Also quite prescient, his Culture series is what I know him for. Its deeply sad, but perhaps also a blessing, that he's missed all of this!

Back to the politics: I can see several things happening - a border poll gets triggered in Ireland/Northern Ireland, PC continue to make gains in Wales, but maybe not enough. I think at this point, a second Scottish referendum is almost guaranteed, Sturgeon has already been preparing for it with a bill in the Scottish parliament, and there has been some signs that the campaigning apparatus is being spun back up. 

I think that Independence will be centered on two points - have the SNP learned from the first independence referendum? The argument for the economy and membership of the EU is likely to be much easier now, but they still have to present a proper plan, because that's what sways people (and the SNP are seen as competent, broadly speaking, which will help) . Membership of the Euro or own currency?

Secondly - the manner in which we Brexit. If its a no-deal, hard Brexit, heavily driven by Johnson I think the Yes wins. If its with a deal, it might be much closer, ultimately the driver will be the economic and social impact Brexit has on us all. It was 55%-45% last time, within a stable and relatively prosperous UK. Who knows how it'll turn out this time? My personal choice will be to vote Yes. Anecdotally, I've heard from my friends and family who voted No, that they have either switched to Yes, or are seriously considering doing so. Not to forget, there's also a minority in Scotland who voted for leave, so there's also some switches from Yes to No, which complicates things even more! 

[Robinred]

Was missing Iain Banks today - always used to buy his latest novel in late summer for holiday - and was reminded of what he said back in 2013.

Guardian interview.

If ambivalent Wales is shifting from Labour to PC (for the Assembly, at least, at the moment) then I think there's a better than fair chance that Johnson breaks the Union with Scotland having the loudest initial voice.

I live in Wales, and was born here. I was a Labour  supporter for my whole adult life until I resigned my membership after Corbyn’s refusal to acknowledge the vonc.

Should Johnson, as seems likely, remain P.M, and given his cabinet appointments, I would start, against everything I thought I believed in regarding the Union, voting Plaid.

[Elmo!]

I  wonder what the reaction will be up here in Scotland over the next few months, latest polls show a majority for independence for the first time ever. Will we see that strengthen?

Not the first time ever, there were polls before indyref with majority support and after indyref. Last one was about 2 years ago though until the recent Ashcroft one.

[Zeb]

An excellent writer, and an excellent interview. Also quite prescient, his Culture series is what I know him for. Its deeply sad, but perhaps also a blessing, that he's missed all of this!

Back to the politics: I can see several things happening - a border poll gets triggered in Ireland/Northern Ireland, PC continue to make gains in Wales, but maybe not enough. I think at this point, a second Scottish referendum is almost guaranteed, Sturgeon has already been preparing for it with a bill in the Scottish parliament, and there has been some signs that the campaigning apparatus is being spun back up. 

I think that Independence will be centered on two points - have the SNP learned from the first independence referendum? The argument for the economy and membership of the EU is likely to be much easier now, but they still have to present a proper plan, because that's what sways people (and the SNP are seen as competent, broadly speaking, which will help) . Membership of the Euro or own currency?

Secondly - the manner in which we Brexit. If its a no-deal, hard Brexit, heavily driven by Johnson I think the Yes wins. If its with a deal, it might be much closer, ultimately the driver will be the economic and social impact Brexit has on us all. It was 55%-45% last time, within a stable and relatively prosperous UK. Who knows how it'll turn out this time? My personal choice will be to vote Yes. Anecdotally, I've heard from my friends and family who voted No, that they have either switched to Yes, or are seriously considering doing so. Not to forget, there's also a minority in Scotland who voted for leave, so there's also some switches from Yes to No, which complicates things even more! 

NI worries me the most about all of this, but there's others on here who can speak better to the situation there without treading on delicate ground over hypotheticals.

To be blunt, I'm not sure the economic argument does stack up - and may even be far worse after a disorderly Brexit to create a land border between the EU and England. Open to being proven wrong by someone serious examining the hypothetical. Just seems a tough sell to start with and not one which improves with England having a bit of a wobbler.

Against that, as you and robinred both are saying, there's an underlying shift going on being driven by Westminster and the consequences of decisions made there. If I were to ever move back to Wales, I'd likely vote for my old MP there because he's a decent bloke and a red but I'd be seriously questioning a future tied to a madhouse England eating itself. Said on here before, if Tories fuck over SM+CU (or Labour do it) then there can't be any complaints if other parts of the UK decide they'd quite like to decide for themselves over some pretty important rights they'd lose. I'd Passport to Pimlico Cheetham Hill if it'd work...

[RedGlen]

Not the first time ever, there were polls before indyref with majority support and after indyref. Last one was about 2 years ago though until the recent Ashcroft one.

Apologies, I've just checked and you're quite right, I was basing that on my own recollections from the time, where it never seemed too likely that Yes would win, barring a brief period near the end where a few polls suggested a Yes win. If I remember correctly, that was the impetus for Gordon Brown and Camerons famous "Vow" for more devolution.

[Elmo!]

Yougov have polling out already:


      

[killer-heels]

9% Lib Dem. Lolz.

[drmick]

9% Lib Dem. Lolz.

9% Remain, what's your point?

[Snail]

Protest outside St. George’s starts at 17:30

[FaitAccompli]

9% Lib Dem. Lolz.

Quite easy to just lie on polls like these.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Quite easy to just lie on polls like these.

or press the wrong button

[Kashinoda]

“Britain faces a simple and inescapable choice – stability and strong Government with me, or chaos with Ed Miliband,”

David Cameron, May 4th 2015 via Twitter

[Flaccido Dongingo]

“Britain faces a simple and inescapable choice – stability and strong Government with me, or chaos with Ed Miliband,”

David Cameron, May 4th 2015 via Twitter

Let's not forget that this fucker is behind all of this, and then didn't have the spine to hang around to clean the mess up, typical fucking Tory.

[Elmo!]

This move is surely going to swing a huge amount of Brexit Party support back to the Tories. Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson has proved to them he will deliver Brexit deal or no deal and they need to unite behind him to stop the Remain parties thwarting it. If we do have an election, can only see them winning it, and likely a majority.

[AndyMuller]

Fuck the Queen.

[killer-heels]

This move is surely going to swing a huge amount of Brexit Party support back to the Tories. Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson has proved to them he will deliver Brexit deal or no deal and they need to unite behind him to stop the Remain parties thwarting it. If we do have an election, can only see them winning it, and likely a majority.

Definitely. Labour and the Lib Dems are fucked. The Brexit party is good for splitting the vote.

[Sudden Death Draft Loser]

Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson has proved to them he will deliver Brexit deal or no deal and they need to unite behind him to stop the Remain parties thwarting it.

Or maybe not:

MEPs from across the EU are organising to trigger a formal investigation into the British government for breaching of the rule of law because of Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson’s “disturbing” move to suspend parliament, The Independent can reveal.

EU parliamentarians are circulating an emergency question to the Commission calling for action under Article 7 of the EU’s founding treaty, which has been used to censure countries such as Poland and Hungary when their governments have been deemed to be undermining democracy or fundamental rights.

The bid, launched on Wednesday evening already has the backing of dozens of MEPs from member states including France, the Netherlands, Romania, Spain, and Denmark – and drawn from all of the parliament’s mainstream political groups. MEPs have until next Monday to put their name to the proposal, when it will be sent to the Commission, and organisers say new signatories are being added every few minutes.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-parliament-suspended-eu-rule-law-investigation-latest-a9082606.html?fbclid=IwAR1NuPZIkJbL-B4jsHxWVrYinTMJ0sutnVqsVZmp7-NGpgqSQLIsoNIYDjA

Yet more evidence that the EU has far more sense than the UK. We really should remain.

[Zeb]

Definitely. Labour and the Lib Dems are fucked. The Brexit party is good for splitting the vote.

Winning back the Blue Kippers stops the Lib Dems winning loads in the south. Is this going to win over the Red Kippers in the midlands and north to get Johnson a majority after making up losses from Scotland? They don't like Johnson to start with so does it improve that enough to move their vote from Kipper to Tory?

[killer-heels]

Winning back the Blue Kippers stops the Lib Dems winning loads in the south. Is this going to win over the Red Kippers in the midlands and north to get Johnson a majority after making up losses from Scotland? They don't like Johnson to start with so does it improve that enough to move their vote from Kipper to Tory?

What is the leaning of those voters? Are they so anti Boris to not switch to the Tories?

[Zeb]

What is the leaning of those voters? Are they so anti Boris to not switch to the Tories?

Still anti-Tory to some degree... That's kind of the end point of both Labour and Tory research into it. A cultural dislike of Tories, even if the tribal boundaries aren't as they once were. Pretty much exact same voters Corbyn wants to keep hold of and/or win back.

Difference to winning them over is between 2017 and projection based on Kantar's pretty wild polling. Can pick out the areas which turn blue between the two.



Link (pdf download)

And that image is the work of a Tory polling boffin, James Kanagasooriam (twitter account)


edit: Heh, for what it's worth in relation to this and why the Tories have been trying this since 2015, Jen Williams (MEN) has been talking to MPs and party figures off the record:

Also had a v interesting conversation with a frustrated labour figure (not MP) who predicts the next big political movement will come from the north. ‘Labour died in Scotland quickly and are going down in Wales fast too: there’s no reason to think it couldn’t happen here.’

They cite general resentment around all sorts of things that are overlooked by London, but also the sense that Labour is now two distinct parties that don’t speak to the same electorate. (I would wager that Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson knows this.)

[TepidT2O]

Fuck the Queen.

Not the queens fault....

[TepidT2O]

Interestingly Ruth Davidson is due to reign tomorrow...

[HarryLabrador]

Haven't seen this here as yet, but for what it's worth:

Petition - Do not prorogue Parliament

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269157?fbclid=IwAR0xZDEcMTEMXUJ6Ipm10EOt8SkWZL5IuEK8rceZPhuoRtyqvOCk-C-vbnA

[Elmo!]

Interestingly Ruth Davidson is due to reign tomorrow...

Fuck the Queen.