Topic: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"

[Zeb]

Think Shaka and I have been robustly discussing aspects of how to address some of this on and off over the past couple of years. Referendum. Citizens' Assembly. Sod the lot of everybody and just revoke etc. It's a summary of current public attitudes towards Brexit outcomes written for Yougov by Will Jennings, one of Sky's election boffins among a lot of other things. Just snipping to the conclusion.

If we instead consider the distribution of preferences, from most negative to most positive, we see that there is considerable difference in the nature of support for each type of Brexit (respondents who are unsure are retained in calculating the proportions, though are not plotted in the figures). For No Deal, it is clear that a substantial portion of the public (just under 50%) consider it a very bad or bad outcome. Of those expressing an opinion, the median voter considers No Deal to be a bad deal.

In slight contrast, while the negotiated withdrawal agreement remains unpopular, with two out of five respondents considering it a bad outcome, opposition is much less intense (the number saying it is a very bad outcome is less than half that for No Deal), while approaching three in ten respondents consider it an acceptable compromise.

While we saw earlier that the average score for Remain was about the same for the Soft Brexit option, public attitudes to the two are very different. Where a soft Brexit is palatable to many, Remain is incredibly divisive with around 35% considering this a very bad outcome and 31% considering it a very good outcome. Just 7% consider Remain an acceptable compromise. This suggests that a second referendum and voting to Remain would be far more polarising than the option of Single Market and Customs Union membership.

Why then has Brexit not delivered the outcome seemingly preferred – or least hated – by the median voter? One explanation is that there is substantial uncertainty around what the public want from Brexit. Designing survey questions about the possibilities is not straightforward, while the choice on the ballot paper did not – despite what many claim – designate what precisely ‘Leave’ amounted to. Downs’ original theorem also assumed that the distribution of voters’ preferences was ‘single-peaked’ – but the options of Remaining and No Deal each deeply divide opinion.

Both major parties are pushing strategies that are not aimed at the median voter. There clearly is no popular mandate for the option of No Deal that has been toyed with by the Conservatives (before even any ill effects of crashing out of the EU are felt), while the second referendum that Labour has proposed (after much dissembling and prevarication) would be deeply polarising – leaving a large number of people either very happy or very dissatisfied – and little middle ground in between.

In some contrast, the option of retaining Single Market and Customs Union membership is seen as an acceptable compromise or better by the largest number of people – nearly 6 in 10. That this option is nowhere close to the political agenda right now tells us a lot about how pervasive populism is now in British politics. Parties’ fear of being outflanked by disruptive challengers (by the Brexit Party on one side and by the Liberal Democrats and Greens on the other) are pushing the Conservatives and Labour to untenable positions that risk alienating large numbers of voters.

[Red-Soldier]

Our democracy is heavily reliant on the goodwill of the government, and the competence of the opposition.  Currently, we are witnessing what can happen when both these things are missing.

[FlashingBlade]

Everyone rushing in ( especially the Torys) to Demonise May and single her out...and the faults of the last two years solely laid at her feet.....She will carry the can and the Left and Right will be happy for her to do so...supported by a complicit media..and the public happy to follow....and in doing so let the Conservative Party off the hook for this National Disaster that they as a political entity are responsible for.

The past five years have been about the survival of the Conservative Party..the in fighting , the loss of voters to UKIP...Brexit in part has been a side issue and now with May leaving they can blame her and rally around Johnson...and they will..MP's will hold their noses and vote for him simply becouse he will draw back in the lost Tory voters...its all about the Party not the Country..the fact that Johnson will be a disaster as a Prime Minister ( He is all intelectual bluff, once truly accountable for his actions , he cant crack off a joke and think thats that)....but that doesnt matter as long as the Tory Party survives.

Those thinking the Brexit Party are a GE force havent been watching whats going on...Brexit spoke to the inner Knob head to the British and the Knob Head wants proved they are right ( regardless of implications)....and are fluid on their allegiances as long as they say the right things...no ambiguity....Tory to UKIP to Brexit Party.. and then with a few Churchillean lite speeches by Boris waving a plastic Union Jack and telling those Bloody foreigners " Look old chap, who won the Bloody war"..and breaking the Parlimentry machine so a No Deal is inevatable....they will coming running back to the Tory fold in a GE, and it is for the promise of that reason alone he will win the leadership. Survival of the party and MP jobs!....leaving everyone to forget the past two years as the May years.

Meanwhile Labour will be watching and wondering , what the fuck happened there...how did we lose this oppurtunity....

Good Luck!

[Trada]

Its the first time the FT has came out in support of a Labour Government for many years.


David Sheppard
‏Verified account @OilSheppard

The Financial Times editorial board says a caretaker government under Jeremy Corbyn is preferable to the “affront to democracy” Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson is trying to pull off.

[FlashingBlade]

Since I and my family moved to Amsterdam two years ago, there has never been a day when I've wondered " was leaving the UK the right thing to do?"...There has been many days when I have thought " It was the right thing to do to leave the UK".

Today is one of those days.

[Iska]

Just snipping to the conclusion.

Set out like that then yes, it could hardly be clearer that that’s where we should end up, in which case the key event is May’s Lancaster House speech, which in one go knocked the landing window a full step to the left on that chart.  What a fucking blunder.

Hell, even I’d settle for that as a compromise I think - though to be clear, it’s Brexit-in-name-only isn’t it?  We’d lose voting rights but otherwise, once you’re in the single market everything else is mere details.

[No666]

Its the first time the FT has came out in support of a Labour Government for many years.


David Sheppard
‏Verified account @OilSheppard

The Financial Times editorial board says a caretaker government under Jeremy Corbyn is preferable to the “affront to democracy” Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson is trying to pull off.

I don't think that's supporting Corbyn. More like - I'd prefer to die by suffocation with a soft pillow than starvation with a bit of violent torture.

[Sudden Death Draft Loser]

I never thought I'd hear British people on TV making arguments in favour of fascism. "Never mind Parliament, we should just let the Prime Minister get on with what he needs to do".

No surprise to me. Brexit has let the cat out of the bag

[Jiminy Cricket]

Its the first time the FT has came out in support of a Labour Government for many years.


David Sheppard
‏Verified account @OilSheppard

The Financial Times editorial board says a caretaker government under Jeremy Corbyn is preferable to the “affront to democracy” Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson is trying to pull off.

No, it is support for a GoNU.

The idea that the FT editorial board are Pro-Corbyn is ridiculous and a complete (deliberate?) misreading of their position. Jiminy effin Cricket.

[Zeb]

Set out like that then yes, it could hardly be clearer that that’s where we should end up, in which case the key event is May’s Lancaster House speech, which in one go knocked the landing window a full step to the left on that chart.  What a fucking blunder.

Hell, even I’d settle for that as a compromise I think - though to be clear, it’s Brexit-in-name-only isn’t it?  We’d lose voting rights but otherwise, once you’re in the single market everything else is mere details.

Can point to May, definitely yeah - a consequence of the internal Tory rift and desire to prevent that breaking open, can also point to Labour's 'isssues' around actually talking about the Single Market, and I do wonder whether the idea of the 'median voter' isn't applying because both Tories and Labour have decided that they need a very specific group of voters in order to win an election and everyone else was meant to tribally tag along in spite of where that led.

Something which should also be said is that Jenning's work here isn't just out, I know some Labour MPs have been well read in it for a fair while.

With you on BINO. I'd think it incredibly stupid to cash in influence for some magic beans in a tin labelled 'parliamentary sovereignty' (shurely shome mishtake?) but straight after the referendum I would have said 'alright'. Now I think I've become radicalised because I don't think there's an endpoint to this clown car procession even if they pinky pledge they're only going to the bottom of the road and back. So I'd rather take a bazooka to it before it begins.

[Jiminy Cricket]

Since I and my family moved to Amsterdam two years ago, there has never been a day when I've wondered " was leaving the UK the right thing to do?"...There has been many days when I have thought " It was the right thing to do to leave the UK".

Today is one of those days.

I was in the US until a year ago. Stayed in the UK for 7 months (family stuff) and considered staying. But my wife an I moved to France in March, just before the original deadline. Like you, no regrets. The UK is just too chaotic. It would be impossible to make plans (for starting a business - or anything, for that matter).

And, again like you, we considered Amsterdam.

[FlashingBlade]

I was in the US until a year ago. Stayed in the UK for 7 months (family stuff) and considered staying. But my wife an I moved to France in March, just before the original deadline. Like you, no regrets. The UK is just too chaotic. It would be impossible to make plans (for starting a business - or anything, for that matter).

And, again like you, we considered Amsterdam.

Straightfoward choice for me..Mrs from Amsterdam..lads dual nationality. Soon as referemdom result she said she could no longer feel comfortable in UK...the emotional.impact on EU residents has been ignored..as UK gets more right wing post No Deal Brexit. Reality will bite for EU nationals and those who can will leave ...invariably the highly skilled and motivated.

[Iska]

I’d rather take a bazooka to it before it begins.

Oh yeah I would too, but it’s not all just to accommodate the likes of me.  Plus I live in Scotland so we can always bazooka the ashes afterwards if we have to

[Zeb]

Oh yeah I would too, but it’s not all just to accommodate the likes of me.  Plus I live in Scotland so we can always bazooka the ashes afterwards if we have to

Yeah, that's definitely an advantage. Do take your point there all the same. Think I'm just very pessimistic about the idea that there's a compromise and then everyone cracks on with other things. Rather than it being years of further negotiation with the EU just further fueling what we're seeing. There may be a compromise for 60% but it's the 30% who don't even have a fixed thing to compromise over which will be the problem for a fair bit yet. Kind of why I am open to the ideas on citizens assemblies and similar, to try and mitigate/minimise, even if sceptical.

[24/7]

Its the first time the FT has came out in support of a Labour Government for many years.


David Sheppard
‏Verified account @OilSheppard

The Financial Times editorial board says a caretaker government under Jeremy Corbyn is preferable to the “affront to democracy” Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson is trying to pull off.

Glasses. Tinted. Rose. Trada mate that's a statement basically preferring one shit sandwich over another! It's not exactly a ringing endorsement for Corbyn and certainly not a recommendation for a Labour government.

Still, it's a decent shout by the FT.

Oh and wouldn't it be great if the RAWK autocorrect there actually spread through the Matrix and all tweets, posts, articles and even autocues carried it on.........

[G1-tiga]

Since I and my family moved to Amsterdam two years ago, there has never been a day when I've wondered " was leaving the UK the right thing to do?"...There has been many days when I have thought " It was the right thing to do to leave the UK".

Today is one of those days.

It's really interesting to hear you say that. I left Liverpool a year ago to move to Bucharest. While I miss the city quite a bit I don't regret leaving the UK as a whole. I feel I did the right thing and so does my partner. Though she and I are both rather worrid about all this. It's just madness.

[Red-Soldier]

No surprise to me. Brexit has let the cat out of the bag

I tend to agree with you.

[Jiminy Cricket]

Straightfoward choice for me..Mrs from Amsterdam..lads dual nationality. Soon as referemdom result she said she could no longer feel comfortable in UK...the emotional.impact on EU residents has been ignored..as UK gets more right wing post No Deal Brexit. Reality will bite for EU nationals and those who can will leave ...invariably the highly skilled and motivated.

My wife a US citizen, but with Swiss heritage (and passport). We always planned to move to Europe at some stage, but Switzerland was too pricey for us at this time. Amsterdam ain't cheap either, of course. We decided that since we weren't moving to our first choice, we'd go somewhere fairly central and relatively cheap. French bureaucracy is quite something (I cannot begin to explain the problems we experienced re-registering our already French registered car), but otherwise it is good.

My wife experienced no problems in the UK. But then, being a white American, she was unlikely to (more likely to receive the ire of the Left).

We live in pretty rural part of France. It is beautiful. A location like this in the UK would be completely affordable.

I have friends and family in the UK. I do worry for them. Especially my parents who have made no effort to stockpile their medicines, no matter how many times I attempt to warn them.

I've not properly lived in the UK for 8 years. So, I am not that personally invested in it anymore. Except, it would appear, I am. It makes me sick.

[24/7]

Some of my friends don't believe me when I said I'd rather die than live in the UK again........then BoJo stole Parliament and I think they finally get it.

I truly would rather shoot myself in the head than live under that regime.

Leaving the UK was the smartest decision I ever made. No fucking way I'm coming back, especially not now

[Snail]

I'm glad for you guys who've got out but we can't afford it.

[Lusty]

What stops me leaving is the thought that what could have happened here could have happened everywhere.  Right wing populism is not just a British idea.  There's a version of the Brexit party in every European country.

I'd hate to move abroad and go through all of this again somewhere else.

[jepovic]

Think Shaka and I have been robustly discussing aspects of how to address some of this on and off over the past couple of years. Referendum. Citizens' Assembly. Sod the lot of everybody and just revoke etc. It's a summary of current public attitudes towards Brexit outcomes written for Yougov by Will Jennings, one of Sky's election boffins among a lot of other things. Just snipping to the conclusion.

That seems reasonable, but there's one very important aspect missing: Neither May's deal nor No deal brexit would be the end of the process.

May's deal is by definition a transitional agreement, arranged to give UK and EU time to sort out the details. It could end up as a softer or harder brexit.

No deal brexit is not sustainable. UK will have to have some kind of deal with its big neighbour. Leaving without a deal puts UK in a very weak position to negotiate that new deal.

It's weird that the discussion is still about this short-term situation. For instance, having a referendum about transitional agreements like May's deal seems rather meaningless. Wouldn't it be better to have a referendum about the long-term deal?

[Sudden Death Draft Loser]

I'm glad for you guys who've got out but we can't afford it.

Not only can I not afford it, but I've no idea where I'd go or what I'd do.

[No666]

My daughter and granddaughter keep me here. Otherwise, I'd be straight off to Ireland or Scotland, given the latter will soon be independent and back in the EU. I have realised how much I loathe a good percentage of my fellow countrymen. I remember feeling the same way back in the days of Thatcher but somehow I was more hopeful then -- maybe it was just because I was younger.

[Zeb]

That seems reasonable, but there's one very important aspect missing: Neither May's deal nor No deal brexit would be the end of the process.

May's deal is by definition a transitional agreement, arranged to give UK and EU time to sort out the details. It could end up as a softer or harder brexit.

No deal brexit is not sustainable. UK will have to have some kind of deal with its big neighbour. Leaving without a deal puts UK in a very weak position to negotiate that new deal.

It's weird that the discussion is still about this short-term situation. For instance, having a referendum about transitional agreements like May's deal seems rather meaningless. Wouldn't it be better to have a referendum about the long-term deal?

Would quibble a bit on May's 'deal' because the political declaration gives a clear steer on the intended end point (that it could be changed during the negotiations is also true). But, yeah, would be interesting to see Yougov gather data which digs further into things. That said, the work around citizens' assemblies gives a bit of a steer on what to expect once you start stripping out easily recognised 'names' and get to the merits of the detail, I think. Essentially you see the same movement towards SM+CU as a compromise once the unicorns are shot.

Fundamentally though isn't our problem that there's no option which commands widespread support + is realistic + can be negotiated + doesn't involve political parties deliberately committing seppuku?

[Sudden Death Draft Loser]

I remember feeling the same way back in the days of Thatcher but somehow I was more hopeful then -- maybe it was just because I was younger.

Significant numbers of people tried to do something about in those days. Now apathy and acceptance are the norm. Either that or the majority are happy with the situation.

[FlashingBlade]

I'm glad for you guys who've got out but we can't afford it.

Totally understand that it's hugely expensive..Plus the process is very demanding only now is the strain of that is recinding...but I ain't complaining.

[Nobby Reserve]

Davidson quits as expected, but wimps out of savaging dictator-in-chief Bozo. Then makes herself look even more pathetic by saying MPs wanting to prevent a catastrophic no deal need to vote for a deal (even when those MPs disagree with the detail of the deal).

A company girl through and through.

[FlashingBlade]

My daughter and granddaughter keep me here. Otherwise, I'd be straight off to Ireland or Scotland, given the latter will soon be independent and back in the EU. I have realised how much I loathe a good percentage of my fellow countrymen. I remember feeling the same way back in the days of Thatcher but somehow I was more hopeful then -- maybe it was just because I was younger.

Take em with you , you'd be doing them a favour.

[Snail]

Not only can I not afford it, but I've no idea where I'd go or what I'd do.

And that.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

What stops me leaving is the thought that what could have happened here could have happened everywhere.  Right wing populism is not just a British idea.  There's a version of the Brexit party in every European country.

I'd hate to move abroad and go through all of this again somewhere else.

right wing populism exists everywhere and will always exist, just goes through phases

[cowtownred]

right wing populism exists everywhere and will always exist, just goes through phases

Think Ireland (and Scotland) are relatively safe.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Think Ireland (and Scotland) are relatively safe.

oh it does it’s just not got the ceiling it has in england

[Libertine]

Think Ireland (and Scotland) are relatively safe.

True.

And while there are very prominent far right parties in many European countries, pro-EU sentiment is high and rising in most (the Brexit anti-domino effect).

I think the difference with the UK is not that a far right party has gained support, rather an existing party has transformed to a far right one. With the dreadful electoral system, and an abysmal leader of the opposition, it was the perfect storm for this shitshow.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

I think the difference with the UK is not that a far right party has gained support, rather an existing party has transformed to a far right one. With the dreadful electoral system, and an abysmal leader of the opposition, it was the perfect storm for this shitshow.

this, UKIP was probably the electoral peak of a far right party created from scratch, but here, like with the GOP, if you can change a right wing party internally to a far right one then a huge number of people who are always going to vote for you will even when you go to that point

[classycarra]

Its the first time the FT has came out in support of a Labour Government for many years.


David Sheppard
‏Verified account @OilSheppard

The Financial Times editorial board says a caretaker government under Jeremy Corbyn is preferable to the “affront to democracy” Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson is trying to pull off.

Haha, even professional spin doctors would be wary as going as far as you've gone there

[TepidT2O]

Its the first time the FT has came out in support of a Labour Government for many years.


David Sheppard
‏Verified account @OilSheppard

The Financial Times editorial board says a caretaker government under Jeremy Corbyn is preferable to the “affront to democracy” Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson is trying to pull off.

The irony is that one of the factors driving no deal is that many people think no deal is preferable to a Corbyn government.

Which is what eventually will cause no deal to happen.

[kennedy81]

What stops me leaving is the thought that what could have happened here could have happened everywhere.  Right wing populism is not just a British idea.  There's a version of the Brexit party in every European country.

I'd hate to move abroad and go through all of this again somewhere else.

Not in Ireland. Anti EU people here are a tiny minority, are generally seen as cranks and are not taken seriously. There is no 'anti-EU' party as such, unless you count far-right loons like the National Party, who will never get anyone elected to the Dail.
There are sevaral other countries where it would be very hard to see it happening. Anti-EU sentiment across the EU is very often exaggerated by the UK press I've noticed. Even in Poland, pro-EU sentiment is above 70%.

Euroscepticism has been festering away in the UK for many years. The UK has never really adjusted to being an EU country I think. That's certainly the view from many other countries. It always saw itself as a special case, constantly seeking better terms of membership. Only Greece has a less favourable view of EU membership than the UK.

[classycarra]

The irony is that one of the factors driving no deal is that many people think no deal is preferable to a Corbyn government.

No it's not

Not in Ireland. Anti EU people here are a tiny minority, are generally seen as cranks and are not taken seriously. There is no 'anti-EU' party as such, unless you count far-right loons like the National Party, who will never get anyone elected to the Dail.

Sounds a lot like England in the late 90s, early 2000s

[24/7]

Euroscepticism has been festering away in the UK for many years. The UK has never really adjusted to being an EU country I think. That's certainly the view from many other countries. It always saw itself as a special case, constantly seeking better terms of membership. Only Greece has a less favourable view of EU membership than the UK.

Exactly. There are many people of a certain age who saw the referendum as a chance to somehow get revenge for 1973. It's fucking pathetic - but then again hardly surprising, especially after 40 years of churning out the most ridiculous bollocks about how the EU takes our freedoms away........fuckin morons.........