Topic: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"

[killer-heels]

Registered with the EPP group in the Euro parliement, so effectively a centre-right party (Renew).

Like many in Chuk then.

[stoa]

So, am I right when I'm saying that the European election will be some sort of pseudo referendum? Bizarre...

[Yorkykopite]

given he was being interviewed by a card carrying tory i think his comments where meant to create a response and make people sit up and look whats going on around them.

I don't understand this. It sounds like you're saying that Lammy's comments were in response to  Andrew Marr being a Conservative supporter*, with the implication that if the TV journalist had been a Labour supporter - say Jon Snow - Lammy wouldn't have called Mogg a fascist.  There doesn't appear to be any logic to that.

*How do you know this?

[ShakaHislop]

Like many in Chuk then.

"many"? The majority of CHUK is ex-Labour. Are you really saying they're centre-right?

So, am I right when I'm saying that the European election will be some sort of pseudo referendum? Bizarre...

Yes. Pro Brexit parties doing better than Remain parties in vote share and/or seats will reinforce the "will of the people" argument that is used so often to rebuff calls to Remain/for a 2nd referendum.

If Remain parties do better than Brexit parties, it strengthens their argument that the mood of the country is changing, and that therefore the question of whether the UK should stay or leave needs to be asked again.

[ShakaHislop]

People need to start contacting the remain parties to express their concerns about the apparent lack of coordination. They need to be reminded of the bigger picture and that their job is to maximise Remainers representation to safeguard their interests.

They shouldn't need reminding.

It's so demoralising to have to plead with other Remainers to do the fucking obvious thing, when that time and energy could and should be spent on us all going after the Leave parties.

[BoRed]

So, am I right when I'm saying that the European election will be some sort of pseudo referendum? Bizarre...

No. Labour will get most votes, and they're sitting on the fence (with most of their MEPs openly remainers).

Some, like May, may try to twist the Labour vote into "most people voting for Brexit parties", but, bizarrely, so will some on the remain side.

Only a referendum can conclusively put the Brexit issue to bed, elections are never fought on a single issue, and are open to (mis)interpretation.

[ShakaHislop]

No. Labour will get most votes, and they're sitting on the fence (with most of their MEPs openly remainers).

Some, like May, may try to twist the Labour vote into "most people voting for Brexit parties", but, bizarrely, so will some on the remain side.

Only a referendum can conclusively put the Brexit issue to bed, elections are never fought on a single issue, and are open to (mis)interpretation.

There's nothing bizarre about that.

Labour's priority is to see us leave the EU with a deal to their liking.

[BoRed]

There's nothing bizarre about that.

Labour's priority is to see us leave the EU with a deal to their liking.

No it isn't. Labour's priority is to get into power.

It's bizarre because painting Labour as a Brexit party and Labour voters as Brexiteers is self-defeating if you want another referendum and remain to win.

[Ghost Town]

They shouldn't need reminding.

It's so demoralising to have to plead with other Remainers to do the fucking obvious thing, when that time and energy could and should be spent on us all going after the Leave parties.

Yep. While they can't join up to form a super party, they could at least coordinate together, use their combined weight and capital to conduct research and commission polling to see which Remain party looks most likely to succeed in each area and then choose not to stand others there. Essentially try and ensure there can be no split in the Remain vote anywhere. Create the most optimum conditions for a decisive Remain victory. Do it this once. They can all go back to competing with each other and vaingloriously aggrandising their own flavour of politics again afterwards, but just this once, be strategic.

No chance.

Our only hope is to do what Dunt says in that article; for Remain voters and organisations to essentially take over and seek not to split the Remain vote. Much more difficult, but maybe doable if enough clever people really throw themselves into it, and if voters agree to vote strategically for a common aim, even if it means sacrificing their preferred choice.

[Ghost Town]

It's bizarre because painting Labour as a Brexit party and Labour voters as Brexiteers is self-defeating if you want another referendum and remain to win.

But no-one is doing that. We know that all being equal Labour is a Remain party and by and large Labour voters are Remainers. The point is that the Labour leadership are Brexiters. That's the problem, and the disconnect.

[Red-Soldier]

Not really surprised to see the BP polling so high.

[BoRed]

But no-one is doing that. We know that all being equal Labour is a Remain party and by and large Labour voters are Remainers. The point is that the Labour leadership are Brexiters. That's the problem, and the disconnect.

I know that, but these pages are full people telling voters that if they vote Labour they're voting for Brexit, which is clearly not the case. And I'm not even sure about the leadership, I'm sure they'd take power over Brexit. At best, they're divided on it, though if Corbyn was desperate to get Brexit, he could have found twenty loyal backbenchers to vote for May's deal by now.

Here's a good article about it, btw: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/17/why-labours-leader-has-to-perform-a-brexit-balancing-act

[TheShanklyGates]

European Parliament voting intention:

BREX: 27%
LAB: 22%
CON: 15%
GRN: 10%
LDEM: 9%
UKIP: 7%
CHUK: 6%

via @YouGov, 15 - 16 Apr

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1118480874893381632

These elections are going to be an absolute shitshow.

[killer-heels]

Oh dear. Numbers wise I guess it reflects the electorate.

[killer-heels]

"many"? The majority of CHUK is ex-Labour. Are you really saying they're centre-right?

Yes. Pro Brexit parties doing better than Remain parties in vote share and/or seats will reinforce the "will of the people" argument that is used so often to rebuff calls to Remain/for a 2nd referendum.

If Remain parties do better than Brexit parties, it strengthens their argument that the mood of the country is changing, and that therefore the question of whether the UK should stay or leave needs to be asked again.

Maybe many was the wrong word, but at least three of them are including their leader. Also there is a chance some of their other candidates will be centre right as well.

Are we not voting for them as well then?

[ShakaHislop]

No it isn't. Labour's priority is to get into power.

It's bizarre because painting Labour as a Brexit party and Labour voters as Brexiteers is self-defeating if you want another referendum and remain to win.

I'm not painting Labour voters as Brexiteers. What is self-defeating is voting for a party that is prioritising a "jobs first Brexit" over a 2nd referendum so Labour voters, the majority of whom have always been Remainers, should consider taking their vote elsewhere.

[ShakaHislop]

Yep. While they can't join up to form a super party, they could at least coordinate together, use their combined weight and capital to conduct research and commission polling to see which Remain party looks most likely to succeed in each area and then choose not to stand others there. Essentially try and ensure there can be no split in the Remain vote anywhere. Create the most optimum conditions for a decisive Remain victory. Do it this once. They can all go back to competing with each other and vaingloriously aggrandising their own flavour of politics again afterwards, but just this once, be strategic.

No chance.

Our only hope is to do what Dunt says in that article; for Remain voters and organisations to essentially take over and seek not to split the Remain vote. Much more difficult, but maybe doable if enough clever people really throw themselves into it, and if voters agree to vote strategically for a common aim, even if it means sacrificing their preferred choice.

No chance.

[ShakaHislop]

Maybe many was the wrong word, but at least three of them are including their leader. Also there is a chance some of their other candidates will be centre right as well.

Are we not voting for them as well then?

No maybe about it. "Many" was clearly the wrong word, when there are nearly 3 times as many current CHUK MPs formerly of Labour than ex-Tories.

[Red Beret]

They shouldn't need reminding.

It's so demoralising to have to plead with other Remainers to do the fucking obvious thing, when that time and energy could and should be spent on us all going after the Leave parties.

I agree, but clearly it needs to be done.  I want my vote to count.  I might start drafting some kind of stock letter than I can share on here.

[Red Beret]

European Parliament voting intention:

BREX: 27%
LAB: 22%
CON: 15%
GRN: 10%
LDEM: 9%
UKIP: 7%
CHUK: 6%

via @YouGov, 15 - 16 Apr

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1118480874893381632

These elections are going to be an absolute shitshow.

As I said before, a new party cannot be challenged on its past record, but it can raise hell on the records of existing parties.  UKIP is a contaminated instrument post-referendum.  So Farrage sets up a new party to rinse repeat 2016 all over again.

[Red-Soldier]

European Parliament voting intention:

BREX: 27%
LAB: 22%
CON: 15%
GRN: 10%
LDEM: 9%
UKIP: 7%
CHUK: 6%

via @YouGov, 15 - 16 Apr

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1118480874893381632

These elections are going to be an absolute shitshow.

Yep. There's still millions of angry gammons about.  Come to think of it, they're probably even angrier than they were three years ago.

[killer-heels]

No maybe about it. "Many" was clearly the wrong word, when there are nearly 3 times as many current CHUK MPs formerly of Labour than ex-Tories.

But they may very well have a centre right setup in some way?

Anyway, what are we talking about? Only vote for Remain parties if they are cemtre left fully?

[rob1966]

Perhaps Lammy should use the term "far-right-extremists" rather than Nazi, he would be fully justified, even if the people he`s talking about are advocates of white/English/British Nationalism.

given he was being interviewed by a card carrying tory i think his comments where meant to create a response and make people sit up and look whats going on around them , lets face it some comments by ERG and UKIP members  are not that far removed from comments made by the nazi’s pre war

[Mutton Geoff]

I don't understand this. It sounds like you're saying that Lammy's comments were in response to  Andrew Marr being a Conservative supporter*, with the implication that if the TV journalist had been a Labour supporter - say Jon Snow - Lammy wouldn't have called Mogg a fascist.  There doesn't appear to be any logic to that.

*How do you know this?

probably as  it was Marr he felt the need to be very explicit about how far the right of the country have gone, Lammy isnt the only one who links the present day with pre -war germany and the rise of fascism, lammy may have been more direct than most personally though i like that.

When you have people like Frottage using terms like this will be a call to arms, and we need to give these politicians a massive shock that they will never forget or words to that effect. When you see a person who wants to be the next PM working with Steve Bannon, not to mention the 'Sparks'  lookalike in the ERG.

Lammy might have been direct in his words but is he wrong in his warning about the far right increasing their influence in politics and society.

[Trada]

The Opimium poll was out last night that showed another big drop for the Tories.

@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 36% (+1)
CON: 29% (-6)
UKIP: 11% (+2)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
GRN: 4% (-1)

via @OpiniumResearch, 09 - 12 Apr
Chgs. w/ 29 Mar

Only Comres to go now...... Come on dont let the side down.


Labour now has an average 4.6% lead over the Tories across recent polls:

    BMG (Labour +4%)
    Delta (Labour +5%)
    Survation (Labour +4%)
    Kantar (Labour +4%)
    Hanbury (Labour +9%)
    Opinium (Labour +7%)
    ComRes (level)
    YouGov (Labour +4%)

We have the full set now.


Election Maps UK
‏ @ElectionMapsUK

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 33% (+1)
CON: 23% (-9)
BXP: 14% (+14)

Via @ComRes,
Changes w/ 5-7 Apr.

Lowest CON vote share in a WM VI poll since 1997...
11:32 pm - 17 Apr 2019

[classycarra]

We have the full set now.


Election Maps UK
‏ @ElectionMapsUK

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 33% (+1)
CON: 23% (-9)
BXP: 14% (+14)

Via @ComRes,
Changes w/ 5-7 Apr.

Lowest CON vote share in a WM VI poll since 1997...
11:32 pm - 17 Apr 2019

Cheers for sharing those good Blairite numbers

[Trada]

European Parliament voting intention:

BREX: 27%
LAB: 22%
CON: 15%
GRN: 10%
LDEM: 9%
UKIP: 7%
CHUK: 6%

via @YouGov, 15 - 16 Apr

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1118480874893381632

These elections are going to be an absolute shitshow.

Yougov seem to be going EU poll crazy.


Britain Elects
‏ @britainelects

European Parliament voting intention:

BREX: 23% (-4)
LAB: 22% (-)
CON: 17% (+2)
GRN: 10% (-)
LDEM: 9% (-)
CHUK: 8% (+2)
UKIP: 6% (-1)

via @YouGov, 16 - 17 Apr
Chgs. w/ 16 Apr
11:28 pm - 17 Apr 2019

[Red Beret]

Yougov seem to be going EU poll crazy.


Britain Elects
‏ @britainelects

European Parliament voting intention:

BREX: 23% (-4)
LAB: 22% (-)
CON: 17% (+2)
GRN: 10% (-)
LDEM: 9% (-)
CHUK: 8% (+2)
UKIP: 6% (-1)

via @YouGov, 16 - 17 Apr
Chgs. w/ 16 Apr
11:28 pm - 17 Apr 2019

So that's about 27% in favour of committed remain parties.  Good start.

[TepidT2O]

So that's about 27% in favour of committed remain parties.  Good start.

The top three parties, that’s 62% are all committed to leave.

Terrible

[killer-heels]

The top three parties, that’s 62% are all committed to leave.

Terrible

Plus the UKIP vote as well. Remain is fucked.

[Devon Red]

As Ian Dunt said in his article posted on here a little while ago; the game changer would be if Labour campaign for the EU elections with a people's vote explicitly in their manifesto. It has to be there in black and white; a confirmatory referendum with an option to remain. It's what the PLP want, it's what the members want and it's what the voters want. If it doesn't happen then we know who is to blame.

[BoRed]

The top three parties, that’s 62% are all committed to leave.

Terrible

This is what I meant yesterday, the dangers of misinterpretation. Labour voters are not "committed to leave". The EU election is not a second referendum. If you interpret it as one, then you might as well give up on holding a second referendum, never mind remain winning it. And yet all polls suggest remain would win it.

Based on this poll, I'd say 29% are committed to leave (Brexit party and UKIP). Some Tory voters, too, obviously, and a few Labour voters, and that's it. More importantly, the poll excludes those who will not vote, and the turnout in the EU election probably won't even reach half of the referendum turnout. The rabid Brexiteers will turn up, of course (UKIP got most votes the last time around), but a lot of remainers won't bother.

These polls are depressing, but it's utterly wrong to see them as any kind of indication of how a second referendum would pan out.

[ShakaHislop]

This is what I meant yesterday, the dangers of misinterpretation. Labour voters are not "committed to leave". The EU election is not a second referendum. If you interpret it as one, then you might as well give up on holding a second referendum, never mind remain winning it. And yet all polls suggest remain would win it.

Based on this poll, I'd say 29% are committed to leave (Brexit party and UKIP). Some Tory voters, too, obviously, and a few Labour voters, and that's it. More importantly, the poll excludes those who will not vote, and the turnout in the EU election probably won't even reach half of the referendum turnout. The rabid Brexiteers will turn up, of course (UKIP got most votes the last time around), but a lot of remainers won't bother.

These polls are depressing, but it's utterly wrong to see them as any kind of indication of how a second referendum would pan out.

The media already are.

I agree with your last sentence, but I do believe a better showing for the pro-Brexit parties compared to the Remain ones will make a 2nd referendum less likely to happen. MPs that were feeling braver about supporting the idea of another referendum may well retreat for fear that they will get a battering at the next GE.

[ShakaHislop]

Efforts to forge anti-Brexit electoral alliance fail

One proposal examined by the Lib Dems and Change UK was for the two parties, and the Greens, to form an anti-Brexit shell vehicle, specifically for the European elections, but the idea foundered.

A senior Lib Dem figure said Change UK “weren’t interested” in an alliance, and wanted to use the elections “to try out their own brand”.

A Change UK MP denied this, and said that the problem was time — the proposed new anti-Brexit shell vehicle would have required paperwork filed with the elections regulator several weeks ago, “when people didn’t know the European elections were happening”.
Brexit scenarios: Theresa May's four seasons of departure

An alternative plan — for the Lib Dems and Change UK to stand aside for one another in different electoral regions — also failed.

Critics of Change UK have questioned its strategy, arguing that its name is amorphous and that it has failed to build momentum since 11 MPs left Labour and the Conservatives to form the Independent Group in February and March.

But Change UK, whose interim leader is Heidi Allen, said that 3,700 people had applied in less than a week to stand as its candidates in the European elections.

The Change UK MP talked down the prospect of any future alliance with the Lib Dems — saying Sir Vince’s party had a “tarnished” brand, “never really confronted their demons” over participation in the 2010-15 coalition government with the Tories, and “are not going to be the future of the centre ground”.

The Greens, who won more seats than the Lib Dems in the 2014 European elections, rejected the possibility of a unified slate of anti-Brexit candidates.

The party said it would “resist any calls for us to stand alongside parties with whom we have fundamental ideological differences on austerity, economic policy and beyond”.

https://www.ft.com/content/0b07867c-6059-11e9-a27a-fdd51850994c

It's Lib Dems for me then. Good luck in your new job after the next GE, Heidi Allen and as for the Greens, please burn some coal when making your way down to the polling station.

[TepidT2O]

This is what I meant yesterday, the dangers of misinterpretation. Labour voters are not "committed to leave". The EU election is not a second referendum. If you interpret it as one, then you might as well give up on holding a second referendum, never mind remain winning it. And yet all polls suggest remain would win it.

Based on this poll, I'd say 29% are committed to leave (Brexit party and UKIP). Some Tory voters, too, obviously, and a few Labour voters, and that's it. More importantly, the poll excludes those who will not vote, and the turnout in the EU election probably won't even reach half of the referendum turnout. The rabid Brexiteers will turn up, of course (UKIP got most votes the last time around), but a lot of remainers won't bother.

These polls are depressing, but it's utterly wrong to see them as any kind of indication of how a second referendum would pan out.

To explain, 62% (more) of people are supporting parties who are standing on a mandate that they will facilitate the uk leaving the EU.

A vote for them is a vote to leave the EU

[rafathegaffa83]

Again, the UK needs its own Mueller investigation

Arron Banks repeatedly lied to cover-up his Brexit campaign’s effort to attract far-right extremists.

Leave.EU paid for Facebook adverts targeted at supporters of the National Front, the BNP, Britain First and the EDL.

But when the BBC asked for a response to a story they planned to run, Mr Banks sent a barrage of emails in an attempt to get the story dropped.

Leaked emails, seen by Channel 4 News, show Mr Banks insisted the BBC’s accusation were “wholly wrong” – despite his own staff telling him the story was true.

One Leave.EU employee told him: “Those are our ads, we have targeted those groups since the beginning of the campaign as they gain most traction.”

Another Leave.EU staffer proposed telling the BBC: “We pay for target ads for all political parties, not just right wing.”

But Mr Banks replied: “Not the right answer.”

Instead, Mr Banks told the BBC: “It’s wholly wrong to say we have targeted extreme right parties… your report needs to reflect this or it will be biased and if we have to we will take whatever legal action we need.”

Andy Wigmore, Leave.EU’s Head of Communications, even appealed to the head of BBC Westminster, Robbie Gibb, in a further attempt to prevent the story from being run.

Mr Gibb is now Theresa May’s head of communications.
More here: https://www.channel4.com/news/revealed-brexit-group-covered-up-its-targeting-of-right-wing-extremists

[Robinred]

Again, the UK needs its own Mueller investigation

Indeed it does. Banks is an arrogant prick who seems to believe he is above the law.

His (very short) “interview” on Channel 4 News the other night was typical - wouldn’t be interviewed on their “evidence” because they were not a news channel at all, rather, a left wing propaganda machine staffed by lefties and ex-Guardian staff. (I paraphrase).

[PatriotScouser]

Efforts to forge anti-Brexit electoral alliance fail

https://www.ft.com/content/0b07867c-6059-11e9-a27a-fdd51850994c

It's Lib Dems for me then. Good luck in your new job after the next GE, Heidi Allen and as for the Greens, please burn some coal when making your way down to the polling station.

 

[killer-heels]

Efforts to forge anti-Brexit electoral alliance fail

https://www.ft.com/content/0b07867c-6059-11e9-a27a-fdd51850994c

It's Lib Dems for me then. Good luck in your new job after the next GE, Heidi Allen and as for the Greens, please burn some coal when making your way down to the polling station.

Ha. Having to vote for the Lib Dems is bleak. Not surprised people dont want to be associated with them.

[Zeb]

It's Lib Dems for me then. Good luck in your new job after the next GE, Heidi Allen and as for the Greens, please burn some coal when making your way down to the polling station.

Think a 'Remain coalition' is a great idea but also one which was always going to prove to be ludicrously difficult to do for the very same reasons why the Tiggers haven't looked to join the Greens or the Lib Dems in parliament. Renew folding into Change wasn't a surprise, crossover in activists was pretty high from what I saw, but I think it's perfectly reasonable for none of Change, Greens, nor Lib Dems to have been looking to run on a combined slate for these. What they lose in having a united voice, they gain from being able to maximise their own vote.