Topic: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"

[Ghost Town]

Lewis Goodall has been tweeting from Farge's second Brexit Party rally, in Birmingham (sold out in days, queues going round the block). It makes very uncomfortable and concerning reading. He thinks Frottage and co (who have been carefully and shrewdly planning this for months) may have really tapped into something, playing on the idea that the UK has been humiliated and needs to fight back, plus running on a 'politics needing to change' ticket.

Goodall reckons the Brexit Party could absolutely roast the opposition during the Euro Elections, creating a new, fresh mandate for Leave. By contrast Remainers, as usual, are well behind the curve and totally unorganised and complacent. Some Remain parties have barely finished registering with the Electoral Commission.

This could get really ugly.Goodall thinks Remain parties need to form an alliance and yet just today The Guardian is reporting that the Lib Dems, the Greens and ChUk won't join forces.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall

I have a further concern that if Labour and the Tories see a surge in the polls for either the Brexit Party+UKIP, or for the Remain parties, it might well focus their minds and lead them to agree a crappy compromise which they'll try and push through, rather than risk contesting the Euro Elections.

There's a huge amount of complacency among Remainers at the moment - partly driven by exhaustion, and the feeling that it's all gonna be quiet now until October.

There are some big twists and turns to come, I suspect

[ShakaHislop]

...

The Guardian is reporting that the Lib Dems, the Greens and ChUk won't join forces.

...

Infuriating. What sort of message does them getting between 6-8% each send out? "We're fucking twats. Hip hip hooray!"

It's a slap in the face to everyone who's worked hard to keep Remain/a 2nd referendum in the game to just kill the momentum like that. No less ego than the likes of Rees-Mogg or Johnson.

[west_london_red]

Infuriating. What sort of message does them getting between 6-8% each send out? "We're fucking twats. Hip hip hooray!"

It's a slap in the face to everyone who's worked hard to keep Remain/a 2nd referendum in the game to just kill the momentum like that. No less ego than the likes of Rees-Mogg or Johnson.

Are the EU election not done under Proportional Representation?

[ShakaHislop]

Are the EU election not done under Proportional Representation?

I found this article explaining the system used.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27187434

It seems to me that as it's just as foolish to split the vote under that system as it is under FPTP. In that real life example given in the article, Labour came third and still only got 1 MEP out of 6. There's no real benefit from Remain parties running just to make up the numbers in 4th and 5th place.

Only one (or 2 max, depending on the specific circumstances) candidate from the TIGs, Lib Dems and Green should stand in each region to unify the Remain vote (at least the section prepared to not vote Labour) as much as possible.

If you still refuse to vote Lib Dem in the circumstances we find ourselves in because of either a stick up your arse from something that happened in Westminster the best part of a decade ago, or because you think Vince Cable is shit, you deserve a no deal Brexit.

[ShakaHislop]

It takes quite some doing from the smaller opposition parties to be so stupid that they make Labour, after their 3 years of "respect the result of the referendum" rhetoric and Brexit Jez in charge, look like the more attractive option to Remainers if Labour show more commitment to a 2nd referendum (aka Starmer wins the day) between now and the end of May.

[ShakaHislop]

Brexit: British Steel seeks £100m government loan to meet EU rules

British Steel is seeking a £100m loan from the government in order to meet EU emission rules.

Previously, the company could have used EU-issued carbon credits to settle its 2018 pollution bill.

However, the steel maker has been affected by a European Union decision to suspend UK firms' access to free carbon permits until a Brexit withdrawal deal is ratified.

Sources say there is no danger to British Steel sites or jobs.

The EU's emissions trading system's rules allow industrial polluters to use carbon credits to pay for the previous year's emissions, or trade them to raise money.

Each free permit gives a firm the right to emit a tonne (1,000kg) of carbon dioxide (CO2), and they can be traded for money.

In a statement the company said: "We are discussing the impact of Brexit on our business with ministers and officials from the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy and they have been extremely responsive and supportive to date."

The company is in talks with Department for Business about financial help.

The Department for Business, Energy and Industry Strategy told the BBC: "As the business department, we are in regular conversation with a wide range of sectors and companies."

British Steel has until 30 April to comply with EU emission rules.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47921375

[Elmo!]

Are the EU election not done under Proportional Representation?

Yes but because each region has quite a small number of MEPs, there is quite a high threshold to get a seat, depending on how many parties the vote is split between.

[west_london_red]

Yes but because each region has quite a small number of MEPs, there is quite a high threshold to get a seat, depending on how many parties the vote is split between.

Just seen Shaka’s link, I knew there was some kind of local element to it as well as being PR but that just seems very complicated.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Lewis Goodall has been tweeting from Farge's second Brexit Party rally, in Birmingham (sold out in days, queues going round the block). It makes very uncomfortable and concerning reading. He thinks Frottage and co (who have been carefully and shrewdly planning this for months) may have really tapped into something, playing on the idea that the UK has been humiliated and needs to fight back, plus running on a 'politics needing to change' ticket.

Goodall reckons the Brexit Party could absolutely roast the opposition during the Euro Elections, creating a new, fresh mandate for Leave. By contrast Remainers, as usual, are well behind the curve and totally unorganised and complacent. Some Remain parties have barely finished registering with the Electoral Commission.

This could get really ugly.Goodall thinks Remain parties need to form an alliance and yet just today The Guardian is reporting that the Lib Dems, the Greens and ChUk won't join forces.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall

I have a further concern that if Labour and the Tories see a surge in the polls for either the Brexit Party+UKIP, or for the Remain parties, it might well focus their minds and lead them to agree a crappy compromise which they'll try and push through, rather than risk contesting the Euro Elections.

There's a huge amount of complacency among Remainers at the moment - partly driven by exhaustion, and the feeling that it's all gonna be quiet now until October.

There are some big twists and turns to come, I suspect

the bbc helping him out, although not totally sure he wants to leave as his nice job goes if happens, just turn up a couple days a year to virtue signal and get six figures

Ps the largest hall is 3k capacity, impressive but hardly gamechanging, but rallies are the way to make people believe and are ‘relevant’

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Infuriating. What sort of message does them getting between 6-8% each send out? "We're fucking twats. Hip hip hooray!"

It's a slap in the face to everyone who's worked hard to keep Remain/a 2nd referendum in the game to just kill the momentum like that. No less ego than the likes of Rees-Mogg or Johnson.

this, just so stupid from them but I’d guess they all want to be ‘the’ remain party and are happy to fuck things up so they can get a few extra percent. Idiots the lot of them, but the Brexit party and the kippers look to be splitting the vote as well

[ShakaHislop]

this, just so stupid from them but I’d guess they all want to be ‘the’ remain party and are happy to fuck things up so they can get a few extra percent. Idiots the lot of them, but the Brexit party and the kippers look to be splitting the vote as well

I expect Frottage's name recognition will ensure there is clear daylight between The Brexit Party and UKIP nationwide. UKIP might do well in at least one region if they field Yaxley-Lennon as a candidate.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

I expect Frottage's name recognition will ensure there is clear daylight between The Brexit Party and UKIP nationwide. UKIP might do well in at least one region if they field Yaxley-Lennon as a candidate.

the polling has the two around 25% split pretty evenly, but the kippers have more history but the Brexit Party has the box office attraction

[ShakaHislop]

the polling has the two around 25% split pretty evenly, but the kippers have more history but the Brexit Party has the box office attraction

UKIP have been on a downward trajectory ever since the referendum, and that's a period in which they've been the only significant pro-Brexit alternative to the Tories on the right. I don't see them suddenly turning things around, particularly now that there's The Brexit Party on the scene. I don't think the Tories will do as badly as that YouGov poll posted a couple of pages back suggests, so between them and the Brexit Party, UKIP are left feeding on scraps.

[TepidT2O]

Over 25% of British people would vote for far right parties.

Genuinely a moment for great concern.

[rob1966]

Over 25% of British people would vote for far right parties.

Genuinely a moment for great concern.

[ShakaHislop]

Over 25% of British people would vote for far right parties.

Genuinely a moment for great concern.

And what's the left/liberals response to this challenge?

"I haven't forgotten tuition fees/the coalition"
"I'm not voting for those TInGe Blairites"
"Aren't the Greens a wasted vote?"
"Well, I've always voted Labour so...."

That's great. Enjoy your purity/comfort zones while the nutters let themselves in through the front door.
Too many people still don't seem to appreciate we're still in the eye of the perfect storm of shitness and that you can't always vote the way you did before, if you're serious about improving the situation anytime soon. It's not 1997 anymore.

[killer-heels]

Over 25% of British people would vote for far right parties.

Genuinely a moment for great concern.

Why? It was always thwre.

[24/7]

I see someone's managed to put "some black in the Union Jack" - that's gonna ruin one of their favourite chants......

[killer-heels]

And what's the left/liberals response to this challenge?

"I haven't forgotten tuition fees/the coalition"
"I'm not voting for those TInGe Blairites"
"Aren't the Greens a wasted vote?"
"Well, I've always voted Labour so...."

That's great. Enjoy your purity/comfort zones while the nutters let themselves in through the front door.
Too many people still don't seem to appreciate we're still in the eye of the perfect storm of shitness and that you can't always vote the way you did before, if you're serious about improving the situation anytime soon.

There is literally nothing that the others are doing to attract them.Frottage, for his buckets of faults, has genuine appeal in his messaging and his reputation, as does the whole Brexit ideal.

What is there on the other side? Vince Cable? Caroline Lucas? Chukka Umunna or Heidi Allen? There is nothing on that side that makes people vote for them. Its not a sophisticated electorate and as such there needs to be someone or an ideal that gains attraction.

Corbyn and Labour have that as well. There needs to be ideas that are easily sellable because people want the easy solutions.

[Yorkykopite]

Why? It was always thwre.

Are you sure? The BUF, the NF, the BNP have never had a parliamentary seat between them. Or come anywhere close.

[killer-heels]

Are you sure? The BUF, the NF, the BNP have never had a parliamentary seat between them. Or come anywhere close.

Thats all they ran for. Brexit or leaving the EU was what UKIP was mainly known for and behind that was the racist shit. It funnelled support to them and like Frottage said, its that message that killed the far right vote. He of course didnt add that all them lot then went and voted for UKIP.

[TepidT2O]

Why? It was always thwre.

Really? 

It always had a mandate at the ballot box?

We both know that isn’t true.

[ShakaHislop]

There is literally nothing that the others are doing to attract them.Frottage, for his buckets of faults, has genuine appeal in his messaging and his reputation, as does the whole Brexit ideal.

What is there on the other side? Vince Cable? Caroline Lucas? Chukka Umunna or Heidi Allen? There is nothing on that side that makes people vote for them. Its not a sophisticated electorate and as such there needs to be someone or an ideal that gains attraction.

Corbyn and Labour have that as well. There needs to be ideas that are easily sellable because people want the easy solutions.

They're offering another referendum with Remain as an option. What more do people need in an election that is/will clearly be all about Brexit?

If people hide behind excuses like "Vince Cable doesn't inspire me" to not vote Lib Dems when it may be the best Remain tactical voting option in their region, they're the problem, not him or the Lib Dems.

[killer-heels]

Really? 

It always had a mandate at the ballot box?

We both know that isn’t true.

What, that people have just become racist then in the past few years?

[Mutton Geoff]

Why? It was always thwre.

The BBC or should i say the Frottage Media Corp gave this far right ideology respectability so they are no longer hiding  in dark corners and sewers, we get Frottage openly suggesting that people should have a go at their MP and scare the hell out of them and the BBC news dept made it the main story with no questioning of his dangerous comments, earlier  the same day radio 4 started their Euro election countdown guess who was the first guest.

[killer-heels]

They're offering another referendum with Remain as an option. What more do people need in an election that is/will clearly be all about Brexit?

Brexit is not the only thing that people care about, especially Remainers who are middle of the road, which is most of them. If you want a dedicated electorate over the EU, its the other lot.

[TepidT2O]

What, that people have just become racist then in the past few years?

Oh no no no.  What silliness.

These are populist right parties. A simple message that appeals to people who feel frustrated, angry or that their lot in life isn’t what it could be.

Most of these people simply aren’t racist even if they vote for parties that are.  The appeal (and dangers) of populist parties has been known for a long long time. It’s a much easier sell than proper politics.  It’s also much more dangerous.

We won’t get round this problem by calling them all racists (they aren’t), although it may well be true that all racists will vote for them.

[ShakaHislop]

Brexit is not the only thing that people care about, especially Remainers who are middle of the road, which is most of them. If you want a dedicated electorate over the EU, its the other lot.

What influence will MEPs have on UK knife crime or how the NHS is funded? Next to nothing, so whose going to be voting on those issues?

Besides, if you want to us to leave the EU, your hope is that we leave as soon as possible so those MEPs won't have time to do anything meaningful anyway.

[ShakaHislop]

Oh no no no.  What silliness.

These are populist right parties. A simple message that appeals to people who feel frustrated, angry or that their lot in life isn’t what it could be.

Most of these people simply aren’t racist even if they vote for parties that are.  The appeal (and dangers) of populist parties has been known for a long long time. It’s a much easier sell than proper politics.  It’s also much more dangerous.

We won’t get round this problem by calling them all racists (they aren’t), although it may well be true that all racists will vote for them.

I'd argue most of them are bigoted, considering they're willing to believe the narrative that immigration is responsible for your personal/the country's woes, which is a key part of these parties' message.

[killer-heels]

Oh no no no.  What silliness.

These are populist right parties. A simple message that appeals to people who feel frustrated, angry or that their lot in life isn’t what it could be.

Most of these people simply aren’t racist even if they vote for parties that are.  The appeal (and dangers) of populist parties has been known for a long long time. It’s a much easier sell than proper politics.  It’s also much more dangerous.

We won’t get round this problem by calling them all racists (they aren’t), although it may well be true that all racists will vote for them.

Yes, all very true. If anything, if it splits the right wing vote then good.

[killer-heels]

What influence will MEPs have on UK knife crime or how the NHS is funded? Next to nothing, so whose going to be voting on those issues?

Besides, if you want to us to leave the EU, your hope is that we leave as soon as possible so those MEPs won't have time to do anything meaningful anyway.

You are talking about one side of the debate who are passionate and want to register their discontent. There is many more of them than there are on the other side of the debate. That side is free of logic as well and everything you said is all very logical. That doesnt apply to them people.

There is not the passionate Remain at all costs vote in the general public.

[Ghost Town]

It's always the way. The left will bicker and compete and fall out with each other and be incredibly complacent while focusing on identity politics and punishing people who are not quite the right sort.

Meanwhile the right will shrewdly ignore everything other than the best way to achieve their aims, willing to work alongside people they don't agree with, and ignoring past conduct if it's beneficial to.

One reason why Brexit has stood out as unusual is that, on the WA at least, the right have fought and scuppered each other in a way that is very...leftish.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Would say that’s because like with a lot of the left it’s the ideologues in the erg as opposed to the more pragmatic ones (and let’s be fair for euro elections it’s quite easy for the far right parties to be pragmatic whilst the left/centre left options are bickering so they can be better set for the next general election)

[Ghost Town]

And what's the left/liberals response to this challenge?

"I haven't forgotten tuition fees/the coalition"
"I'm not voting for those TInGe Blairites"
"Aren't the Greens a wasted vote?"
"Well, I've always voted Labour so...."

That's great. Enjoy your purity/comfort zones while the nutters let themselves in through the front door.
Too many people still don't seem to appreciate we're still in the eye of the perfect storm of shitness and that you can't always vote the way you did before, if you're serious about improving the situation anytime soon. It's not 1997 anymore.

I agree with a lot of that but the Greens will still be a wasted vote in FPTP. Unless there's clear evidence of a major shift in voting behaviour, the only way to keep the Tories out is to vote Labour and vice versa. No matter how angry we are at Labour. That's the bind that FPTP puts us in.

I've seen a lot of talk about how politics has changed and party loyalties have dissipated but there's no actual evidence yet of this at the ballot box in a general election; how can there be? That's also part of the bind our system puts us in: evidence of changed habits can't come until its too late for that cycle, and by the next GE, you can't rely on the evidence of the previous GE.

I'll never tell anyone how to vote. But I suspect that at the next GE, whenever that is, Labour voters voting for anyone other than Labour will, as always, only help the Tories. I want to believe that radical change will sweep through our political landscape, but in reality I doubt it.

The Euro Elections, however, are a different prospect. And if we want to help we need to persuade all Remain parties to box clever, and make strategic alliances and deals. Someone clever needs to work out the optimum strategy to give Remain MEP candidates the best chances of winning everywhere, and then the Remain parties need to follow that strategy.

It won't happen

[Ghost Town]

Would say that’s because like with a lot of the left it’s the ideologues in the erg as opposed to the more pragmatic ones

Yes you're right. It's the old horseshoe metaphor, probably from that horse in Animal Farm

[ShakaHislop]

I agree with a lot of that but the Greens will still be a wasted vote in FPTP. Unless there's clear evidence of a major shift in voting behaviour, the only way to keep the Tories out is to vote Labour and vice versa. No matter how angry we are at Labour. That's the bind that FPTP puts us in.

I've seen a lot of talk about how politics has changed and party loyalties have dissipated but there's no actual evidence yet of this at the ballot box in a general election; how can there be? That's also part of the bind our system puts us in: evidence of changed habits can't come until its too late for that cycle, and by the next GE, you can't rely on the evidence of the previous GE.

I'll never tell anyone how to vote. But I suspect that at the next GE, whenever that is, Labour voters voting for anyone other than Labour will, as always, only help the Tories. I want to believe that radical change will sweep through our political landscape, but in reality I doubt it.

The Euro Elections, however, are a different prospect. And if we want to help we need to persuade all Remain parties to box clever, and make strategic alliances and deals. Someone clever needs to work out the optimum strategy to give Remain MEP candidates the best chances of winning everywhere, and then the Remain parties need to follow that strategy.

It won't happen

I think this is a dangerous mentality, no matter how much you hate the Tories. It gives Labour permission to be as shit as possible when they know there's peer pressure among the left to vote for them because "at least they're not the Tories"

As for the European elections, expecting voters to know how to vote tactically when a range of options is before them is a very risky strategy. I've seen multiple people on Twitter, who I'd regard as quite switched on about Brexit generally, making complacent assumptions about the voting system used; as if it's a magic system where a party receiving a middling 7% or so will definitely be rewarded with at least one seat because something something other European countries have regular coalitions. Likewise, the naive belief that a scenario in which Remain parties win few seats won't matter because the media will focus on the fact that the TIGs/Lib Dems/Greens have x % put together.

Those parties need to make people's choices for them.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

I've seen a lot of talk about how politics has changed and party loyalties have dissipated but there's no actual evidence yet of this at the ballot box in a general election

i think it’s because there isn’t a decent 3rd option to most like there was with the pre coalition Lib Dem’s, now there’s probably a sizeable chunk who would vote Tory/labour because they don’t want corbyn/May in power, rather than wanting may/corbyn in power (think corbyns approval amongst 2017 Labour voters was something like 42-40), and of course may and corbyns ratings are worse than absymal

I think this is a dangerous mentality, no matter how much you hate the Tories. It gives Labour permission to be as shit as possible when they know there's peer pressure among the left to vote for them because "at least they're not the Tories"

and vice versa to be fair

[Red Beret]

It's very obvious that the Brexit party is part of planning ahead, a precaution in the event of a 2nd referendum.  All the other leave parties are completely contaminated by the previous result, the lies put forward, and the clusterfuck since A50 was invoked.

Remember a few pages back when somebody said it's easy for a newcomer with no track record to come in and criticise the establishment?  That's what the B(N)P is - a clean slate, a second bite at the cherry for leavers where they can blast the likes of Johnson and Gove for the mess they've created and the naughty lies they told.  And nobody will notice at all that Farrage was involved with all that shit, because he was relatively careful on what he said.

[Ghost Town]

I think this is a dangerous mentality, no matter how much you hate the Tories. It gives Labour permission to be as shit as possible when they know there's peer pressure among the left to vote for them because "at least they're not the Tories"

I agree. But not voting for them will mean the Tories win, or win with a greater majority. And the satisfaction of knowing that we 'showed Labour a thing or two' will last only until the next great Tory horror story policy is unveiled.

It's a bind that there's no way out of unless, as I said, there's a massive sea change in voting behaviour. But if there is such a sea change we won't know until it's too late. People merely saying so on social media means nothing.

And yes, Labour will no doubt use that knowledge disreputably.

As for the European elections, expecting voters to know how to vote tactically when a range of options is before them is a very risky strategy. I've seen multiple people on Twitter, who I'd regard as quite switched on about Brexit generally, making complacent assumptions about the voting system used; as if it's a magic system where a party receiving a middling 7% or so will definitely be rewarded with at least one seat because something something other European countries have regular coalitions. Likewise, the naive belief that a scenario in which Remain parties win few seats won't matter because the media will focus on the fact that the TIGs/Lib Dems/Greens have x % put together.

Those parties need to make people's choices for them.

Yep, all true. Listening to some Lib Dems talk they really have ridiculous delusions of grandeur. They really seem to think that vast hoards are going to fall into line behind them because they are Remain. These delusions will probably prevent them form taking the wise course of allying themselves with other Remain parties, working out a strategy and, as you say, ensure that the tactical choices are made for Remain voters.

[oldfordie]

Bookies best prices for most MEPs
Labour evens
Brexit party 5/4
Conservitive  12/1
UKIP  18/1
Change UK  25/1
Democrats  33/1
Green  200/1