Topic: The Run Home and CL Qualification

[luckyluke]

A draw for Chelsea tomorrow would mean we could wrap up top4 mathematically on Saturday.

A pretty good end of the season in the league actually. The most important goal is (almost) achieved but there is still a bit of race for the 2nd and 3rd spot so the last 4-5 games don't fade into complete apathy. Although I'd swap it for City's if I'm honest.

[Brian Blessed]

Just realised Burnley are trying to get above arsenal for Europe so they will give Chelsea a game

Unless Southampton wins the FA Cup, does seventh get Europa?

[nico 8]

Unless Southampton wins the FA Cup, does seventh get Europa?

I think that would be right.

[El Lobo]

I think that would be right.

Yeah think we get three spots, one for each of the cups and then one for 5th. And then if the cup winners have already qualified through the league, or qualified for the CL, then it goes to the next highest in the league.

[JerseyKloppite]

Yeah think we get three spots, one for each of the cups and then one for 5th. And then if the cup winners have already qualified through the league, or qualified for the CL, then it goes to the next highest in the league.

Yep.

Top 4 get CL, 5th and winners of FA and LC get EL. If winners of FA or LC have already qualified for CL or EL by virtue of their league position, the extra EL places go to 6th and 7th in the league accordingly.

If a team outside the top 4 wins the EL, they take a CL place. They are not replaced - England can only have a maximum of 7 teams in Europe. If teams outside of the top 4 win the CL AND the EL, 4th place drops into the Europa league.

[slimbo]

Updated with points

Man Utd  74  - Arsenal (h), BHA, West Ham, Watford (h),

Liverpool  70 - WBA, Stoke (h), Chelsea, BHA (h)

Spurs 68       - Watford (h), WBA, Newcastle (h), Leicester (h)

Chelsea 60    - Burnley, Swansea, LFC (h), Huddersfield (h), Newcastle

Arsenal 54    - West Ham (h), Man Utd, Burnley (h), Leicester, Huddersfield

[Alan_X]

Yeah think we get three spots, one for each of the cups and then one for 5th. And then if the cup winners have already qualified through the league, or qualified for the CL, then it goes to the next highest in the league.

The order is one for the main Cup competition, one for 5th place (both go straight into the group stage) and one for 6th place (into Q2). Associations can choose to allocate the 6th place spot to the secondary cup competition.

[Alan_X]

I think 2nd is unlikely now. Utd can lose to Arsenal at home and still finish above us. Let's do enough to get 3rd and focus on the semi-final.

[sms1986]

I think 2nd is unlikely now. Utd can lose to Arsenal at home and still finish above us. Let's do enough to get 3rd and focus on the semi-final.

Yeah, third would still be a sign of good progress - even fourth would be as its two consecutive top four finishes - and winning number six would be a massive result.

[downtown]

Good point. They need to be careful what they wish for. I would be really surprised if Burnley don't get at least a point from tomorrow's game.

What's the point of their existence if they purposely want to dodge Europe? It's not like they'll ever get to CL bar a complete miracle.

I'm sure if you ask Stoke fans (After they get relegated), what was their most memorable night during a decade in top flight, many would say playing Valencia at Mestalla in a European competition knock out.

[killer-heels]

I think 2nd is unlikely now. Utd can lose to Arsenal at home and still finish above us. Let's do enough to get 3rd and focus on the semi-final.

2nd went after that rubbish performance at Old Trafford. Its always hard to win at Old Trafford but we really should have put in a better performance there.

[Lycan]

I'm sure if you ask Stoke fans (After they get relegated), what was their most memorable night during a decade in top flight, many would say playing Valencia at Mestalla in a European competition knock out.

I think their most memorable game would be stuffing us 6-1 though. 

[CraigDS]

Alonso banned for 3 games for Chelsea which can only help us further. Not that I’m particularly worried of them catching us.

[LallanaInPyjamas]

If you're into gambling and/or stats, have a read of this re Burnley:

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Soccer/are-burnley-good-lucky-or-both/4YH27PK5WNKJKTXC

A decline next season looks inevitable, whether they're in the EL or not.

Agree they almost certainly won't match this season's points total.

I do think statisticians need to re-address their thinking in terms of predicting drop-offs within the same season, though. That's three seasons in a row now that we've constantly been told Leicester, Chelsea and Burnley respectively would drop off by the Spring at the latest, and if anything the opposite has happened with their results improving as the season has progressed. Motivation for titles/trophies/high league placings will always help sides' momentum in these scenarios. Stats simply don't take this into consideration.

Honestly, I really wish I had bet a lot on those three teams in those seasons. Would have made a killing with the generous odds on offer (undoubtedly influenced by the statisticians I assume they employ to help them find the 'right' odds). I remember Leicester being about 6/4 to beat Southampton when they were chasing the title. Burnley were better than 2/1 at West Brom the other week.

[-HH-]

If Burnley get anything from Chelsea then we can seal it against West Brom. Or if not against Stoke. Or if not against Chelsea. Or if not against Brighton. In other words, it's already highly unlikely that Chelsea catch us, tonight it could be pretty much sealed.

[MerseysideBrum]

You can get 66/1 on us not to get top 4

[Sir Psycho Sexy]

You can get 66/1 on us not to get top 4

surprised it's not more .... we're fine, no need to worry about it at all imo

[Felch Aid]

Here's something to make you jealous.

I live in Burnley ( ) - off to Turf Moor to cheer on Dyche and the boys. Wish me luck.

[MerseysideBrum]

Here's something to make you jealous.

I live in Burnley ( ) - off to Turf Moor to cheer on Dyche and the boys. Wish me luck.

[G1-tiga]

Here's something to make you jealous.

I live in Burnley ( ) - off to Turf Moor to cheer on Dyche and the boys. Wish me luck.

Have a great time, my girlfriend is from there and I get to go on the Turf with her dad and brother from time to time, always really enjoy it.

[lionel_messias]

Here's something to make you jealous.

I live in Burnley ( ) - off to Turf Moor to cheer on Dyche and the boys. Wish me luck.

Cheer them big time, if Burnley can win tonight, they will remove some headaches for Jurgen Klopp for sure!

[clinical]

Easy win for Chelsea tonight I reckon. They will be motivated after the spurs draw and how Burnley beat them on first day of season

Expect a 1-3 scoreline.

[Mr_Shane]

Burnley will give Chelsea a tough game. If Chelsea are not motivated, they will drop points. We almost did not beat them if Lovren and Klavan had not conjured up an injury time winner

[Djozer]

Agree they almost certainly won't match this season's points total.

I do think statisticians need to re-address their thinking in terms of predicting drop-offs within the same season, though. That's three seasons in a row now that we've constantly been told Leicester, Chelsea and Burnley respectively would drop off by the Spring at the latest, and if anything the opposite has happened with their results improving as the season has progressed. Motivation for titles/trophies/high league placings will always help sides' momentum in these scenarios. Stats simply don't take this into consideration.

True that. Still, I remember Villa under Gregory and Hull under the orange twat who did a team talk on the pitch (name escapes me) bothering the top spots until about Christmas and then falling away dramatically in the not too distant past, so it has happened, and I think there've been a fair few other cases too. I was convinced all the way through Leicester's miracle run that they'd do the same. Lost 20 quid to a mate on that one.

[LallanaInPyjamas]

You can get 66/1 on us not to get top 4

Great odds, that. Means if you stick £5 on, you'll win £0.

[sms1986]

Burnley will give Chelsea a tough game. If Chelsea are not motivated, they will drop points. We almost did not beat them if Lovren and Klavan had not conjured up an injury time winner

I can see it being a draw, especially as Chelsea might care more about the FA cup match on Sunday.

[lgvkarlos]

Great odds, that. Means if you stick £5 on, you'll win £0.

😁

[deFacto please, you bastards]

If Chelsea win which it looks likely, we need to be beating WBA this weekend.

[Alan_X]

If Chelsea win which it looks likely, we need to be beating WBA this weekend.

We do. For all the people saying 'it's done' we will be 7 ahead on the same number of games played with a visit to the Bridge to come and a pain in the arse game at Stoke between the two legs of the semi-final.

[bailey90]

This match has been so easy for Chelsea

[Crosby Nick]

We do. For all the people saying 'it's done' we will be 7 ahead on the same number of games played with a visit to the Bridge to come and a pain in the arse game at Stoke between the two legs of the semi-final.

Home to Stoke Alan, if that makes a difference? I want it done before we play Chelsea but if the worst hapo bs and they beat us it’ll most likely still be in our hands meaning a win at home to Brighton on the last day would be enough. Most people would probably have taken that near the start of the season although hopefully it won’t come to that.

[deFacto please, you bastards]

We do. For all the people saying 'it's done' we will be 7 ahead on the same number of games played with a visit to the Bridge to come and a pain in the arse game at Stoke between the two legs of the semi-final.

Exactly that, win this game coming up and at least draw with Stoke, and we should be fine regardless of what happens against them and the last game.

[killer-heels]

We definitely need to win at West Brom if we want to rest players against Stoke. Otherwise we have to go strong in both games.

[Legoland]

Wtf is this idiot Owen yapping about. The more he talks, the dumber he seems.

His post match analysis of the Chelsea V Bournemouth game is making me 

[clinical]

If Chelsea win which it looks likely, we need to be beating WBA this weekend.

Yep far from over as many are saying. A single slip up and it's squeaky bum time.

[Alan_X]

Home to Stoke Alan, if that makes a difference? I want it done before we play Chelsea but if the worst hapo bs and they beat us it’ll most likely still be in our hands meaning a win at home to Brighton on the last day would be enough. Most people would probably have taken that near the start of the season although hopefully it won’t come to that.

Sorry yes - writing while working.

[BobPaisley3]

Yep far from over as many are saying. A single slip up and it's squeaky bum time.

Fully expecting Chelsea to win all of their remaining games with the possible exception of the one against us. Ordinarily I’d expect us to win all of our remaining games with the possible exception of the match against them, but the champions league games maybe an obvious issue. WBA is the biggest game of the season, win that and we’re there.

[sms1986]

Fully expecting Chelsea to win all of their remaining games with the possible exception of the one against us. Ordinarily I’d expect us to win all of our remaining games with the possible exception of the match against them, but the champions league games maybe an obvious issue. WBA is the biggest game of the season, win that and we’re there.

We only need two more wins, and essentially with our goal difference a win and two draws should be enough.

[BobPaisley3]

We only need two more wins and essentially with our goal difference a win and a draw should be enough.

It would be a win and two draws, a win and one draw doesn’t guarantee it even with goal difference. It’s completely in our hands which is great, but we can’t take our eye off the ball.

[sms1986]

It would be a win and two draws, a win and one draw doesn’t guarantee it even with goal difference. It’s completely in our hands which is great, but we can’t take our eye off the ball.

We won't be taking our eyes off the ball, Klopp won't allow it from his team.