Topic: The Top Six Mini-League Thread... Sponsored by TENA

[killer-heels]

The dynamic of the game will be different. Its like the last big games in front of their fans. They will give it a go and they have experienced players. Im not saying City will drop points but its not as easy as it looks on paper.

City will win by 3 or 4 goals.

[Wabaloolah]

[istvan kozma]

You cant do that, you cant just pretend that result doesnt exist. If you cherry pick the run of good results we had against Burnley, Bournemouth, Stoke and West Brom then it looks great but you cant do that. Our par for course in those games is around 1.75 points per game. Our hope is not actually that our team will suddenly stop having the flaws it has had all season but the fact that some of those teams wont put an 100% effort, specially West Ham if they can help Arsenal and that in 4 games you can get a bit lucky and have results above expectations.

Why not? I don't get why people think a team who can barely win away from home against teams in the top eleven is all of a sudden going to go on a run. Yet a team who was on a decent run prior to losing 1 game, is going to pick up less points even though every statistical reason is in their favour.

[S]

Smashed glass, broken shards everywhere. I end up stepping on one and have to visit A&E.

[kennedy81]

Utd need a miracle.

The 4 games in 10 days will kill them off. 2 EL semi legs plus Spurs and Arsenal away, all in 10 days. Good luck with that.
I can see them dropping points elsewhere too. They just draw too many games and have done all season.

[Pistolero]

You cant do that, you cant just pretend that result doesnt exist. If you cherry pick the run of good results we had against Burnley, Bournemouth, Stoke and West Brom then it looks great but you cant do that. Our par for course in those games is around 1.75 points per game. Our hope is not actually that our team will suddenly stop having the flaws it has had all season but the fact that some of those teams wont put an 100% effort, specially West Ham if they can help Arsenal and that in 4 games you can get a bit lucky and have results above expectations.

bournemouth was a good result......who knew?

[sms1986]

If our last 4 games were against Chelsea, Spurs, Man City and Arsenal.... I would say we would get top 4...... but they're not...... why does everyone think we'll win these games when we haven't all season!!!!

In the reverse games we won two and drew two.

[alvaro]

Why not? I don't get why people think a team who can barely win away from home against teams in the top eleven is all of a sudden going to go on a run. Yet a team who was on a decent run prior to losing 1 game, is going to pick up less points even though every statistical reason is in their favour.

Its not one bad result.  Since the calendar year we have dropped points to Sunderland, Swansea, Hull City, Leicester, Bournemouth and Crystal Palace. We have beaten Burnley, Stoke and West Brom.  It has been a complete disaster. 3 wins out of 9 games. We are seventh in the calendar year table.

Our squad is just not good enough, we lack depth on almost every position. Its been an heroic effort by the players and the manager and we might scramble the line because its football and in 4 games luck plays a bigger role.

[S]

Utd need a miracle.

The 4 games in 10 days will kill them off. 2 EL semi legs plus Spurs and Arsenal away, all in 10 days. Good luck with that.
I can see them dropping points elsewhere too. They just draw too many games and have done all season.

If they need a miracle what do we need?

You highlight United drawing too many as a weak point, what about us losing too many? Spurs is their only hard game left. Mourinho never has any trouble against Wenger.

[sms1986]

Technically it's completely full due to air.

[alvaro]

bournemouth was a good result......who knew?

The run was good, 3 wins and a draw. I meant he was cherry picking the good run we had.

[pyroparty]

If they need a miracle what do we need?

You highlight United drawing too many as a weak point, what about us losing too many? Spurs is their only hard game left. Mourinho never has any trouble against Wenger.

I wouldn't hold on to Mourinho's record over Wenger, you failed to win the home game v Arsenal so it's no given you'll go there and win

[Ken Doral]

I don't think United are going to win out from here, which means 12 pts would do it. But it all comes back to how likely is it we pull that off? Truth is we haven't been playing great for a while, scrapping for goals without the likes of Mane to open things up (and score himself) and Lallana to keep things moving quickly.

[exiledintheUSA]

I think we need 8 pts (74) to get CL footy next season.

[Studgotelli]

Let's not forget we haven't scored a single goal vs. Southampton this season. West Ham away is traditionally a bad game for us. We'll do well to get 8-10 points imo. Gonna be a fucking squeeze.

[Anfield Kopite]

People thinking we need 12 points from our last 4 games to finish above United ? This is not Fergies United. This is the draw specialists. They will drop points along the way. It's what they do. A fine Pullis like 10 man behind the ball defensive masterclass to gain a point tonight doesn't change that.

[killer-heels]

I think we need 8 pts (74) to get CL footy next season.

No chance. 75 minimum.

[Johnnyboy1973]

I wouldn't hold on to Mourinho's record over Wenger, you failed to win the home game v Arsenal so it's no given you'll go there and win

Nicely done and fucking right.

[Crosby Nick]

Let's not forget we haven't scored a single goal vs. Southampton this season. West Ham away is traditionally a bad game for us. We'll do well to get 8-10 points imo. Gonna be a fucking squeeze.

No Van Dijk.  I know he missed the second leg but we were in rancid form them that's in no way comparable to now, even after a bad result against Palace. Plus law of averages suggests we have to score against them soon.

I know this thread is circular. Until we mathematically make it, or fail to we'll all still be sticking to our guns.

I'm not 100% certain we'll make it but on balance of probability I think we still will. I can't get my head around those of you who are so convinced we'll miss out. Genuinely not trying to be all superfannish but there must be some people out there who think we won't make it but at least accept we might still get there?  Anyone?!

[alvaro]

Let's not forget we haven't scored a single goal vs. Southampton this season. West Ham away is traditionally a bad game for us. We'll do well to get 8-10 points imo. Gonna be a fucking squeeze.

In all my pessimism I actually fancy us to beat West Ham if we need it to beat Arsenal to the top 4.

[killer-heels]

No Van Dijk.  I know he missed the second leg but we were in rancid form them that's in no way comparable to now, even after a bad result against Palace. Plus law of averages suggests we have to score against them soon.

I know this thread is circular. Until we mathematically make it, or fail to we'll all still be sticking to our guns.

I'm not 100% certain we'll make it but on balance of probability I think we still will. I can't get my head around those of you who are so convinced we'll miss out. Genuinely not trying to be all superfannish but there must be some people out there who think we won't make it but at least accept we might still get there?  Anyone?!

Of course we might get there. Totally accept that. I think we will fall short but we can do it.

[Filler.]

Beat Watford. Beat Southampton. Beat West Ham. Beat Boro. Just do that. Just beat these 4 teams.

[Crosby Nick]

Of course we might get there. Totally accept that. I think we will fall short but we can do it.

That's a start.  Welcome aboard!

[harryc]

I would have been worried about Utd but thankfully those midweek games which are likely to be intense will play a major reason in them dropping pts against Spurs and Arse - probably lose at least one if not both.

[Crosby Nick]

How did Smalling and Jones play today by the way?

[him_15]

The situation is very simple, we win our games and we get top 4. They others will fight each other and drops point in between.

[Studgotelli]

No Van Dijk.  I know he missed the second leg but we were in rancid form them that's in no way comparable to now, even after a bad result against Palace. Plus law of averages suggests we have to score against them soon.

I know this thread is circular. Until we mathematically make it, or fail to we'll all still be sticking to our guns.

I'm not 100% certain we'll make it but on balance of probability I think we still will. I can't get my head around those of you who are so convinced we'll miss out. Genuinely not trying to be all superfannish but there must be some people out there who think we won't make it but at least accept we might still get there?  Anyone?!

I expect Puel will have them pack their defence regardless and counter as usual. With that Gabbiadini upfront they'll be really tricky cos they can snatch a goal at any time.

In all my pessimism I actually fancy us to beat West Ham if we need it to beat Arsenal to the top 4.

On this seasons form we should cos they're fucking shit but Carroll and Ayew are the type of players we make look world class.

We'll see.

[Iska]

That's some set of fixtures on Sunday.  Is playing Monday night/after everyone else a good thing or a bad thing for us?  How do we generally cope with that sort of pressure?

[Filler.]

How did Smalling and Jones play today by the way?

I was listening to it on the radio and they didn't get a mention. Was it really that one sided?

[JackWard33]

People thinking we need 12 points from our last 4 games to finish above United ? This is not Fergies United. This is the draw specialists. They will drop points along the way. It's what they do. A fine Pullis like 10 man behind the ball defensive masterclass to gain a point tonight doesn't change that.

How many times do you want to post that they've drawn a lot of games? In most of the games they've drawn against the dross they've been really unlucky - it's been hilarious but it's also more likely they'll win their games against the dross than not.
It's going to be very tight - most of the prediction models have us as a favorite but those are using our performances across the season not our recent level. It looks like a total coin flip between us and united

[TomDcs]

The situation is very simple, we win our games and we get top 4. They others will fight each other and drops point in between.

I theory, yes. But football isn't simple or all teams would just keep on doing the simple thing and winning.

[Sir Psycho Sexy]

Utd need a miracle.

The 4 games in 10 days will kill them off. 2 EL semi legs plus Spurs and Arsenal away, all in 10 days. Good luck with that.
I can see them dropping points elsewhere too. They just draw too many games and have done all season.

shit, didn't realise it was that bad. Fellaini out, down to the absolute barebones in defence, No Ibra, Rashford is good but he can't be relied upon, Martial woefully out of form. And they can't just do what they did today and sit back, unless they want to draw everything.

[SerbianScouser]

our recent level.

Our recent level - 2.12 ppg last 8 games. Across the season 1.94.

[Crosby Nick]

shit, didn't realise it was that bad. Fellaini out, down to the absolute barebones in defence, No Ibra, Rashford is god but he can't be relied upon, Martial woefully out of form. And they can't just do what they did today and sit back, unless they want to draw everything.

Ah yes, that 50 odd million pound bare bones combination at centre back. Performing miracles to be where they are!

[Caston]

You lot are annoying, chill out and see what actually happens in the games before pissing the bed

[TomDcs]

shit, didn't realise it was that bad. Fellaini out, down to the absolute barebones in defence, No Ibra, Rashford is good but he can't be relied upon, Martial woefully out of form. And they can't just do what they did today and sit back, unless they want to draw everything.

Hopefully they still want to go all out for the 6th place cup.

[harryc]

How many times do you want to post that they've drawn a lot of games? In most of the games they've drawn against the dross they've been really unlucky - it's been hilarious but it's also more likely they'll win their games against the dross than not.
It's going to be very tight - most of the prediction models have us as a favorite but those are using our performances across the season not our recent level. It looks like a total coin flip between us and united

Does your prediction model take into account them playing 5 games in 14 days? All of them likely to be intense.

[TomDcs]

You lot are annoying, chill out and see what actually happens in the games before pissing the bed

I think Liverpool will win the next game and that's all I want to think about right now!

[jillcwhomever]

shit, didn't realise it was that bad. Fellaini out, down to the absolute barebones in defence, No Ibra, Rashford is good but he can't be relied upon, Martial woefully out of form. And they can't just do what they did today and sit back, unless they want to draw everything.

Exactly which is why it won't be straight forward for them.

[JackWard33]

Our recent level - 2.12 ppg last 8 games. Across the season 1.94.

Haha - you want to split that ppg into first half of the season vs second half?
You could also take a look at our expg in the last two months vs our opponents or our shot totals.
We haven't been playing well and we need it to change (or we need to get lucky - that'll also work)