Author Topic: Elections in Europe  (Read 171325 times)

Offline killer-heels

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #760 on: September 24, 2017, 05:34:22 pm »
Interesting to see how this affects the Brexit debate.

Offline Libertine

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #761 on: September 24, 2017, 05:41:00 pm »
Poor result for the CDU - perhaps too complacent about the inevitable result?

Disastrous result for the SPD, for the socialist wipeout seen in France and the Netherlands but terrible nonetheless. No way they go back into government now, they need a period of opposition to recover.

Very disappointing that the AFD polled so high given their slump of earlier months. Will be intertesting to see the geographic breakdown.

Great results (again) for the Liberals and Greens though. Hopefully they will enter government with Merkel as a progressive, pro-European administration.

Offline Pensby

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #762 on: September 24, 2017, 05:42:19 pm »
I am sorry, but how can it really effect the debate when Corbynites and the tory right both want the same thing as regards EU exit? There won't be a change within the EU bureaucracy to allow any possible climb down as that would destroy the bureaucracy itself. that is the major EU issue that needs changing. needs to be more accountable/electable, but big fat ducks rarely vote for Christmas x
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Offline Libertine

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #763 on: September 24, 2017, 05:43:38 pm »
AfD on 13.5%, fucking hell. Hopefully Merkel isn't influenced by them in the way the mainstream parties in the UK have kowtowed to UKIP in recent years.

She won't be.

Interesting to see how this affects the Brexit debate.

It won't remotely affect the Brexit debate.

Offline killer-heels

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #764 on: September 24, 2017, 05:45:56 pm »
I am sorry, but how can it really effect the debate when Corbynites and the tory right both want the same thing as regards EU exit? There won't be a change within the EU bureaucracy to allow any possible climb down as that would destroy the bureaucracy itself. that is the major EU issue that needs changing. needs to be more accountable/electable, but big fat ducks rarely vote for Christmas x

There wont be a change but maybe the whole thing of caning Britain no matter the economical cost across Europe might be looked at a bit more?

Anyway its hard to know whether this is a economic thing or a cultural backlash? The political strategist on the Beeb said the AfD voters are not as illiterate as you would think.

Offline killer-heels

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #765 on: September 24, 2017, 05:47:06 pm »
She won't be.

It won't remotely affect the Brexit debate.

Brexit might not be but in Germany she might be. A far right party winning 13.5% of the vote is a big deal.

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #766 on: September 24, 2017, 05:47:53 pm »
They shouldnt do. UKIP had literally 1 policy that many could get behind even in the mainstream and werent far right. An actual far right party getting that many is crazy.

If UKIP isn't a far right wing party then neither is AfD. In my view both are, but somehow you seem to think that there are right wing twats everywhere but in the UK...

Offline Pensby

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #767 on: September 24, 2017, 05:50:38 pm »
I pray you are correct as regards the economic cost rethink but that is just far too sensible for both sides, plus me being atheist doesn't add much praying weight.
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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #768 on: September 24, 2017, 05:55:01 pm »
If UKIP isn't a far right wing party then neither is AfD. In my view both are, but somehow you seem to think that there are right wing twats everywhere but in the UK...
UKIP was nominally a single issue project that grabbed support from both left and right, sadly enough people here either fell for it or were too apathetic to to turn up and vote, both groups damn us all.
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Offline killer-heels

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #769 on: September 24, 2017, 05:55:25 pm »
If UKIP isn't a far right wing party then neither is AfD. In my view both are, but somehow you seem to think that there are right wing twats everywhere but in the UK...

On the contrary, I have been vocal about my views of racist Britain after the Brexit vote. My issue was the way in which Europe was held up as some shining beacon of liberal values.

Offline Libertine

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #770 on: September 24, 2017, 06:01:42 pm »
On the contrary, I have been vocal about my views of racist Britain after the Brexit vote. My issue was the way in which Europe was held up as some shining beacon of liberal values.

Merkel took in one million refugees and still won re-election.

If the UK had done that, it would have elected a government that made Trump look like the Dalai Lama.


Anyway, only one coalition option available now that SPD have returned to opposition - Jamaica here we come.....


Offline killer-heels

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #771 on: September 24, 2017, 06:17:08 pm »
The next lot of elections in France and Germany could be lively. Macron’s popularity has dropped because of his reforms and next time he may suffer as a result.

Germany will get over it though. This will probably just be a flash in the pan and focus voters minds next time.
« Last Edit: September 24, 2017, 06:19:40 pm by killer_heels »

Offline Libertine

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #772 on: September 24, 2017, 07:54:44 pm »
Interesting - the CDU/CSU lost far more votes to the liberal FDP than to far-right AFD.





whereas SPD lost equally to all the smaller parties:


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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #773 on: September 24, 2017, 08:36:48 pm »
The next lot of elections in France and Germany could be lively. Macron’s popularity has dropped because of his reforms and next time he may suffer as a result.

Germany will get over it though. This will probably just be a flash in the pan and focus voters minds next time.

Yeah, I doubt it’s the beginning of a new dawn for the far right in Germany. Some people are angry about the decision to allow in the refugees so have gone voted for the AfD, but I would imagine by the next election it will have been forgotten about and people move on in 4 or 5 years time.
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Offline killer-heels

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #774 on: September 24, 2017, 08:48:57 pm »
Yeah, I doubt it’s the beginning of a new dawn for the far right in Germany. Some people are angry about the decision to allow in the refugees so have gone voted for the AfD, but I would imagine by the next election it will have been forgotten about and people move on in 4 or 5 years time.

It is 12 years for Merkel and they must be tired of her. They also have a consensus approach which is good on one hand but makes things boring as fuck on the other. The SDP have done the right thing and hopefully they can come with a more radical platform next time out.

This time maybe voter apathy played a part.

France though, I am worried as hell. FN got 35% of the vote last time and if Macron wins with his reforms there will be a lot of pissed off people there.

Offline Libertine

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #775 on: September 24, 2017, 09:44:27 pm »
It is 12 years for Merkel and they must be tired of her. They also have a consensus approach which is good on one hand but makes things boring as fuck on the other. The SDP have done the right thing and hopefully they can come with a more radical platform next time out.

This time maybe voter apathy played a part.

France though, I am worried as hell. FN got 35% of the vote last time and if Macron wins with his reforms there will be a lot of pissed off people there.

Merkel as a leader is more popular than ever. The overall vote was more fragmented however, with the smaller parties performing much better than previously. The CSU did especially badly.

It's 4 more years till the next elections, plenty of time.

And the FN got 21% of the vote last time, not 35%. Their big challenge will be to compete with a presumably rejuvinated Republicains as well as Macron and the left if it can get its act together (doubtful though). If the economy improves, and Macron's reforms should have a beneficial effect, then he will be fine.

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #776 on: September 24, 2017, 09:45:19 pm »
It is 12 years for Merkel and they must be tired of her. They also have a consensus approach which is good on one hand but makes things boring as fuck on the other. The SDP have done the right thing and hopefully they can come with a more radical platform next time out.

This time maybe voter apathy played a part.

France though, I am worried as hell. FN got 35% of the vote last time and if Macron wins with his reforms there will be a lot of pissed off people there.

The Lib Dem’s should be a warning to anyone in a coalition, and the SDP did the right thing and walked away before they get an even bigger hiding.
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Offline Pensby

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #777 on: September 24, 2017, 09:48:48 pm »
The understanding of coalitions is very different in Germany, they are far more used to it than we are, wonder if they have benefitted from that????
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Offline cloggypop

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #778 on: September 25, 2017, 09:55:44 am »




 the socialist wipeout seen in France and the Netherlands

This really isn't true though. The Socialist parties did well in both countries. The centrist left parties less so.

Offline Libertine

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #779 on: September 25, 2017, 10:05:47 am »

This really isn't true though. The Socialist parties did well in both countries. The centrist left parties less so.

Yeah, sorry, should have said social democrats or mainstream centre-left.


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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #780 on: September 25, 2017, 10:45:49 am »
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/25/afd-leader-frauke-petry-quits-party-german-election-breakthrough

AfD leader quits party hours after German election breakthrough

The rightwing nationalist Alternative für Deutschland, in celebratory mode after winning the third place in Germany’s elections, was delivered a bombshell by its leader this morning, after she announced she would not sit with the party in the Bundestag.

Frauke Petry walked out of a press conference at which the party leadership marvelled at its success, having secured 13% of the vote and 88 seats in the federal parliament.

Offline rafathegaffa83

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #781 on: September 25, 2017, 11:24:11 am »
AFD splintering already?  I think one of the most telling stats so far is that a huge amount of their votes came from traditional non-voters, who mostly resided in the East. In a country with little in the way of (news) infotainment, I think the following points will be looked at prior to the next election

1) Will the AfD's stint in the Bundestag end up 'normalizing' them among the German electorate?

2) Is this a one-off and how much credit is to be given to "news" and "information" outside traditional channels (i.e. social media)

3) What is the CDU's response? I'm not necessarily sure they will drift further to the right, at least initially. Although the talk that the CSU is reconsidering its union with them is a bit of a shocker, which will raise serious questions.

I'd also be interested to see how old the average AfD voter is. I'm assuming they are older. I saw one graph this morning (might have been tweeted by Mathieu von Rohr) which suggested the vast majority of AfD voters consider their economic situation to be good.

I could see voters in the East being more inclined to AfD for that reason. It sounds like terrorism and immigration played a part in AfD vote and yet (unsurprisingly) the AfD strongholds had the smallest proportion of foreign-born residents living in them

Offline Libertine

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #782 on: September 25, 2017, 11:32:51 am »
I could see voters in the East being more inclined to AfD for that reason. It sounds like terrorism and immigration played a part in AfD vote and yet (unsurprisingly) the AfD strongholds had the smallest proportion of foreign-born residents living in them

Read a very good book recently, The Shortest History of Germany (2,500 years in about 200 pages!) that argues how the east-west divide actually goes back millennia and that the "East-Elbers" have always had a distinct outlook from the rest of Germany.

Hard not to see parallels with Brexit/Trump though. Those more economically disadvantaged, less educated, less productive (see maps in Brexit thread) just hitting out over perceived threats to their identity.

Offline ChaChaMooMoo

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #783 on: September 25, 2017, 12:05:45 pm »
German election: AfD vows to fight 'invasion of foreigners'

Germany's right-wing, nationalist AfD party has vowed to fight "an invasion of foreigners" into the country, after winning its first parliamentary seats.

"We want a different policy," co-leader Alexander Gauland said following the historic surge.

But splits have already emerged between AfD leaders on the party's direction.

Chancellor Angela Merkel has been re-elected for a fourth term but her conservative CDU/CSU bloc received its worst result in almost 70 years.

Mrs Merkel is beginning negotiations to form a new coalition government.

Her bloc's current coalition partners, the Social Democrats (SPD), say they will go into opposition after historic losses.

The AfD's campaign capitalised on a backlash over Mrs Merkel's decision to open Germany's borders to undocumented migrants and refugees in 2015, mainly from the Middle East.

Its success has shocked Germany's political establishment, and protests against the anti-Islam party have been held in several cities following the election result.

"One million people, foreigners, being brought into this country are taking away a piece of this country and we as AfD don't want that," Mr Gauland told a news conference on Monday.

"We say I don't want to lose Germany to an invasion of foreigners from a different culture. Very simple."

He said the AFD - which is expected to take 94 seats in the 709-seat federal parliament as the third-largest party - had been elected "to uncompromisingly address" immigration issues.

But discord is already evident in the party - with another leader, Frauke Petry, declaring at the same news conference she would not join the AfD's parliamentary group despite winning a seat, before abruptly leaving the room to the surprise of other leaders.

Ms Petry, who is the best-known AfD figure, said there was "disagreement over content" in the party and had earlier criticised Mr Gauland for saying the AfD would "hound" Mrs Merkel.

The move is a sign that having won her own seat and led the party to a strong result, Ms Petry is feeling confident enough to mould it in her own image, the BBC's Damien McGuinness in Berlin says.

She wants to make the AfD more moderate and tone down its nationalist rhetoric, he adds.

What does the result mean for Mrs Merkel?

While her bloc remains the largest in the Bundestag, the lower house of parliament, it is the worst result for the alliance between the Christian Democrats (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU) since 1949, when national elections were held in Germany for the first time after World War Two.

Addressing supporters, Mrs Merkel, who has been in the job for 12 years, said she had hoped for a "better result".

She added that she would listen to the "concerns, worries and anxieties" of voters of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in order to win them back.

Mrs Merkel also said her government would have to deal with economic and security issues as well as addressing the root causes of migration.

"Today we can say that we now have a mandate to assume responsibility and we're going to assume this responsibility calmly, talking with our partners of course."

A chaotic day for German politics

It has been a long and bruising election campaign. Angela Merkel may have won the election but it does not feel like much of a victory.

This election will go down in the history books for two reasons. Mrs Merkel may have won a fourth term but it is her worst-ever general election result. And right-wing nationalists are now part of the German establishment.

The result is a verdict, perhaps, on Mrs Merkel's decision to open Germany's doors to one million refugees.

What is the political norm in many other European countries was considered unthinkable in post-war Germany. Not any more.

What are her coalition options?

The SPD had their worst election result in the post-war era. The party's loss of support while junior partner in government saw leader Martin Schulz declare on Sunday evening the end of the "grand coalition" with Mrs Merkel's alliance, to cheers and applause.

He recognised it was a "bitter day" for the Social Democrats but vowed to prevent the AfD from being the main opposition party and enjoying certain privileges as a result.

The SPD was given "a mandate to be a strong opposition in this country; a mandate to defend democracy in this country against all of those who question and attack it", Mr Schulz told supporters on Saturday.



Chart showing changes in parties' votes since 2013 election: CDU-CSU lost 8.5%, SPD lost 5.2%, AfD gained 7.9%
The process of forming a new coalition could take months.

With the SPD out of play, the most likely scenario is a "Jamaica" coalition, so-called because of the colours of Jamaica's flag. It includes the black CDU/CSU, the yellow, business-friendly Free Democrats (FDP) - who are returning to parliament after a four-year hiatus with 80 seats - and the Greens (67 seats).

This combination could lead to instability, as the Greens and FDP disagree on key policy issues, but it is the only formation that would guarantee enough seats in the new Bundestag, German broadcaster ZDF says.

All parties have rejected working with the AfD.

Why did the AfD gain support?

Alternative for Germany was founded in 2013 as an anti-euro party but later turned its focus to immigration and Islam.

It called for a ban on minarets and declared Islam incompatible with German culture. Several of its candidates have been linked to far-right remarks.

Map showing AfD vote share - clearly stronger in eastern parts of Germany



Those hardline positions helped it to win seats in 13 of Germany's 16 state parliaments in the last few years.

Its election campaign posters carried messages such as "Stop Islamicisation. Vote AFD" alongside images of women wearing burkas, and "Burkas? We stand for bikinis".

The party's federal election result was better than opinion polls had forecast.

It performed particularly well in what was formerly East Germany, taking 21.5% of the vote as the second most popular party.

In Saxony, the AfD narrowly beat the CDU to come out on top with 27% of the vote. According to analysis by broadcaster ARD, the AfD vote was highest among 35-44 year-olds, at 16%, and lowest among those above the age of 70, at 7%.


Beatrix van Storch, one of the party's leaders, told the BBC that the party would start parliamentary debates "on migration, Islam and ever closer union" within the EU.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41384550

Offline zebenzui

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #784 on: September 25, 2017, 12:16:12 pm »
In Saxony, the AfD narrowly beat the CDU to come out on top with 27% of the vote. According to analysis by broadcaster ARD, the AfD vote was highest among 35-44 year-olds, at 16%, and lowest among those above the age of 70, at 7%.

I fucking wonder why!

Offline rafathegaffa83

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #785 on: September 25, 2017, 12:31:19 pm »
I fucking wonder why!

Good grief. Different to Brexit then, but popular among  that important subset of people who would have been teenagers or in their early 20s when the Wall fell. People who probably had years of the Young Pioneer indoctrination, but who likely feel their ideas of what reunification was to bring haven't come about. A worrying statistic, although the far right since the Wall fell has had a noticeably strong base in the East

Offline Libertine

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #786 on: September 25, 2017, 12:39:19 pm »
German election: AfD vows to fight 'invasion of foreigners'

They can vow all they like. They are in opposition (and not the main opposition) and they are powerless. And judging by events this morning, they're already fighting like rats in a sack like all extremists do.

Think the media (surprise, surprise) are overly obsessing about the AFD result. They were always going to get 10% or so, did slightly better, but are still irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.

I'm optimistic for Germany now - they should get a more dynamic and progressive government with the FDP and Greens involved (won't be easy to reach agreement of course) and now have a proper mainstream opposition again. Compared to the shitshow in the US and UK, it's a fine position to be in.

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #787 on: September 25, 2017, 01:08:26 pm »
I'm optimistic for Germany now - they should get a more dynamic and progressive government with the FDP and Greens involved (won't be easy to reach agreement of course) and now have a proper mainstream opposition again. Compared to the shitshow in the US and UK, it's a fine position to be in.

You think so? Could you elaborate?

I can see the underlying principle behind a functioning government and an effective opposition, something that the SPD can deliver. But to do that, the majority stake in the government has to be united and the problem we have now is that the FDP and the greens have widely contrasting principles. And, heavens forbid, if the CDU/CSU isnt able to accommodate the interests of the either, it will be back to square one, where one of the stake holder of the majority, is unhappy. And that will catalyse the base to look out for alternatives (cue cue!!). It is a very delicate scenario to be in. This will be the toughest test for Merkel - how she manages to integrate the interests of her two coalition partners who are on the opposite ends of the political spectrum, will lay the groundwork for a 21st century Germany and European union.

Offline Libertine

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #788 on: September 25, 2017, 01:37:12 pm »
You think so? Could you elaborate?

I can see the underlying principle behind a functioning government and an effective opposition, something that the SPD can deliver. But to do that, the majority stake in the government has to be united and the problem we have now is that the FDP and the greens have widely contrasting principles. And, heavens forbid, if the CDU/CSU isnt able to accommodate the interests of the either, it will be back to square one, where one of the stake holder of the majority, is unhappy. And that will catalyse the base to look out for alternatives (cue cue!!). It is a very delicate scenario to be in. This will be the toughest test for Merkel - how she manages to integrate the interests of her two coalition partners who are on the opposite ends of the political spectrum, will lay the groundwork for a 21st century Germany and European union.

I don't regard them as opposite ends of the spectrum at all. Different parties with different policies/focus etc, but think they will have enough in common to form an effective government. They will have to compromise, that is the nature of coalition and German parties are well used to it (at federal and state level).

As for Merkel, she has faced far harder challenges than this and overcome them - the eurozone debt crisis ("Greece is doomed, the euro is doomed!!"), the refugee crisis ("Germany can't take so many refugees") etc. Nobody more suited to the task.

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #789 on: September 25, 2017, 02:19:16 pm »
AFD splintering already?

They were basically split long before the election. When they were founded they were an anti-Euro-movement. They wanted to go back to the Deutsche Mark as a currency and were EU-critical. They were basically founded by upper-class people who were not necessarily right-wing, but simply conservatives unhappy with how things were going. Then there was the first fight about their party line with more moderate people losing out and the right wing elements within the party taking over. One of the founding members and leader of the party was hounded out while the likes of Petry and Gauland took over.

In preparation for the election they had a party convention a couple of months ago. Petry wanted to take the movement more to a conservative direction so they might be able to become part of a future coalition and to be in a position to govern (not for this election, but further down the line). Others like Gauland were against that and were basically saying that they should follow stick to their extremist views and stay in opposition. Petry wanted a debate on that issue at the convention, but her motion was rejected. Even before the convention they decided that there won't be a leading candidate for the election, but rather a team of candidates running things. Petry declined to be part of that.

So, the AfD has had issues before the election and it is basically a fight between the ultra-radical wing of the party and the more moderate wing (not that they aren't radical in their own way). It will be interesting to see whether others will follow Petry and distance themselves from the party.

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #790 on: September 25, 2017, 05:36:30 pm »
It's fascinating to see that the AfD drew most of their support from areas of low immigration. And also from the old Commie bits of Germany - that's to say the section that never confronted its Nazi past and which saw a smooth transition from the Gestapo into the Stasi.
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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #791 on: September 28, 2017, 05:18:17 pm »

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #792 on: September 28, 2017, 07:46:29 pm »
Thinking is overrated.
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Offline J_Kopite

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #793 on: September 28, 2017, 08:21:32 pm »

Offline Bunter

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #794 on: October 15, 2017, 10:13:11 am »
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/15/austria-set-to-elect-youngest-eu-leader-in-move-to-the-right

There seems to be a never-ending supply of bigots everywhere these days gaining prominence. Depressing .

Online stoa

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #795 on: October 15, 2017, 11:03:54 am »
I'll try to do my best by not voting for one of the conservative/right wing parties but I am afraid that might not be enough. So, don't blame me when the air hits the fan... :(

Offline ShakaHislop

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #796 on: October 15, 2017, 06:24:46 pm »
I'll try to do my best by not voting for one of the conservative/right wing parties but I am afraid that might not be enough. So, don't blame me when the air hits the fan... :(

Quote
The People's Party was set to win 31.5%, followed by the Social Democrats with 27.1% and the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) with 25.9%

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-41627586

So an estimated 57.4% for the two right-wing parties. Far from great but they got 53.8% in 1999 (according to Wikipedia) when they entered government together, so this isn't completely unprecedented.

Also, the Social Democrats haven't collapsed either, marginally increasing their share of the vote from last time (26.8%)

Do you think there's any chance of an Austrian in-out EU referendum now, or even with a possible new right-wing coalition, does the Eurosceptism only go so far?

Offline killer-heels

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #797 on: October 15, 2017, 06:38:50 pm »
Austrians are pretty right wing but I dont think its anything out of the norm. The far right in Europe (not that the likely winner is far right) is hardly a surprise, its roots exist here.

Offline Red-Soldier

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #798 on: October 15, 2017, 06:51:14 pm »

Offline rafathegaffa83

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