Topic: Elections in Europe

[Giono]

Whilst this is a marvellous result in the current environment, we should not get too carried away. The Assembly elections are next up for France (mid-June) and it is important that the Front National does not get a significant foothold there. Macron has no meaningful party apparatus, and if he does not get a sympathetic Assembly, the far right can ruin his legislative agenda and go back to the electorate in five years time claiming that nothing changes if you elect a centrist.

They have not gone away for good. The fight against fascism is similar to the old security saying about terrorists: We need to be lucky all the time - they only need to get lucky once.

I thought that the FN only have 2 seats at present? I could see the Socialists and Republicans putting lots of energy into this level of election..

[Libertine]

https://twitter.com/haveigotnews/status/861615068282327040

[cdav]

The absolute state of BBC News at 6 on the French election- talking up that people only voted against Le Pen and definitely not for Macron (because he doesn't fit the anti-Europe narrative). He got through the first round so obviously enough people did like him to vote for him, then hugely increased his vote like always happens in the final runoff. Then they were saying Le Pen will be back and probably stronger in 5 years- it was just so negative.

Its so weird now in this country- its almost like the football reporting. You pick your narrative and then, rather then say what has actually happened- stick rigidly to your pre-conceived narrative and don't actually engage with what has happened.

[Giono]

The absolute state of BBC News at 6 on the French election- talking up that people only voted against Le Pen and definitely not for Macron (because he doesn't fit the anti-Europe narrative). He got through the first round so obviously enough people did like him to vote for him, then hugely increased his vote like always happens in the final runoff. Then they were saying Le Pen will be back and probably stronger in 5 years- it was just so negative.

Its so weird now in this country- its almost like the football reporting. You pick your narrative and then, rather then say what has actually happened- stick rigidly to your pre-conceived narrative and don't actually engage with what has happened.

The media want perpetual controversy, they are fuelling this stuff. It is not occurring in a vacuum.

It is also easier to offer shallow analysis of decay than it is to analyse growth.

So they love politicians who are obstructionist and full of controversial objections.

[Gnurglan]

"Europe and the world is expecting us to defend the spirit of the enlightenment which is threatened in so many places"

A fucking men to that....

France may want that Statue of Liberty back soon.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

The media want perpetual controversy, they are fuelling this stuff. It is not occurring in a vacuum.

It is also easier to offer shallow analysis of decay than it is to analyse growth.

So they love politicians who are obstructionist and full of controversial objections.

personally I'm disgusted that certain papers were whinging about how it hurts the brexit negotiations rather than a moronic c*nt who'd have likely triggered another global recession losing convincingly

[kennedy81]

the_donald were posting pictures of victims (not their faces but dead bodies) of the recent terrorist attacks yesterday and generally assuming a 'well fuck france then' attitude, hoping for more attacks and deaths.

I don't think people talk enough about right-wing radicalisation online. There was a recent attack where the assailant dedicated his action to /pol/ and another where a guy went round a university campus stabbing people who didn't support Trump.

To treat them as poor sods isn't cutting it anymore. They can be a real danger.

Totally agree mate. And it's happened so fast over the last few years especially.
There was always neo-nazi types, bonehead skins, racists etc, but the level that this alt-right mentality has reached online is quite shocking. And no-one was ready for it or knew how to deal with it.

The internet is a wonderful thing for the most part, but I've noticed over the years that it can speed things up to a point that they can get out of control very quickly. Society hasn't really come to terms with it yet.

[Libertine]

Well, this is a shame - FN turn on each other after defeat. Good to see the usual infighting and division amongst extremist groups.

But still a favourite for 2022 according to much of the media....

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/08/front-national-plans-overhaul-after-defeat-but-faces-internal-resistance

[rafathegaffa83]

Its so weird now in this country- its almost like the football reporting. You pick your narrative and then, rather then say what has actually happened- stick rigidly to your pre-conceived narrative and don't actually engage with what has happened.

The U.S. news media approach in a nutshell, which is why partisanship is rife.

[GreatEx]

But still a favourite for 2022 according to much of the media....

Crazy that they're still beating this drum - I realise FN was more popular amongst younger voters, but by 2022 we'll probably have Trump out of the White House, Brexit looking every bit the disaster we expected, and the far-right having been resoundingly defeated everywhere in mainland Europe.

The far-right have already had their time in the sun. Trump was that one magical night in Barcelona, Brexit was one last hurrah for Mr Ferguson. Wilders was Moyes, that Austrian guy was Van Gaal, and Le Pen is Mourinho. And they don't even have a bottomless pit of cash to splurge on getting themselves back. They're an irrelevance.

[child-in-time]

Trump won, mate.

[Garrus]

Trump won, mate.

It's in relation to the French elections where all of those people wanted Le Pen to win.

[GreatEx]

Trump won, mate.

So did Putin. Wow, I think we cracked the code!

[west_london_red]

Crazy that they're still beating this drum - I realise FN was more popular amongst younger voters, but by 2022 we'll probably have Trump out of the White House, Brexit looking every bit the disaster we expected, and the far-right having been resoundingly defeated everywhere in mainland Europe.

The far-right have already had their time in the sun. Trump was that one magical night in Barcelona, Brexit was one last hurrah for Mr Ferguson. Wilders was Moyes, that Austrian guy was Van Gaal, and Le Pen is Mourinho. And they don't even have a bottomless pit of cash to splurge on getting themselves back. They're an irrelevance.

1/3 of the vote is not an irrelevance, it's a warning. As for Trump and Brexit, I am not going to pretend on being an expert on France but I don't think French people as a whole will care too much about either, they always seem to do their own thing without too much regard to what's going on in the Anglo-Saxon world.

[Libertine]

https://twitter.com/tobiaschneider/status/862010562598887424

 

[rafathegaffa83]

https://twitter.com/tobiaschneider/status/862010562598887424

 

[rafathegaffa83]

Well, this is a shame - FN turn on each other after defeat. Good to see the usual infighting and division amongst extremist groups.

But still a favourite for 2022 according to much of the media....

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/08/front-national-plans-overhaul-after-defeat-but-faces-internal-resistance

And Le Pen's niece has quite too it seems

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/09/ex-pm-valls-declares-french-socialists-dead-after-macron-victory

[GreatEx]

1/3 of the vote is not an irrelevance, it's a warning. As for Trump and Brexit, I am not going to pretend on being an expert on France but I don't think French people as a whole will care too much about either, they always seem to do their own thing without too much regard to what's going on in the Anglo-Saxon world.

It's because the French are generally more politically engaged, they're not a bunch of tabloid-reading dunces who only pretend to be knowledgeable in the days leading up to an election. Many even weigh up more than one issue before voting!

[Garrus]

And Le Pen's niece has quite too it seems

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/09/ex-pm-valls-declares-french-socialists-dead-after-macron-victory

You just know she'll be back in time for 2022.

[child-in-time]

So did Putin. Wow, I think we cracked the code!

In soviet Russia elections win you.

[Giono]

1/3 of the vote is not an irrelevance, it's a warning. As for Trump and Brexit, I am not going to pretend on being an expert on France but I don't think French people as a whole will care too much about either, they always seem to do their own thing without too much regard to what's going on in the Anglo-Saxon world.

1/3 is a high water mark. I think they know that they had all the planets lining up and they still couldn't do it. Hech, they tacked to the centre in an effort to enlarge their vote and they got beat by a new centrist candidate with a new party. It will be interesting to see what happens next time with a right of centre republican alternative that isn't hit by scandal like Fillon was. That will eat into their votes.


On your second point, I think the French people do care about Europe and do care about how they are perceived. I think that was part of the Macron apeal. He was the anti-trump and the anti-Brexit candidate. Fillon was not that. They do like to be independent and they can 'think within the hexagon' at times. But I don't think they were considering the statement they were making by voting for Macron in a vacuum. They new the message they were sending.

[Libertine]

A 4 point lead over "Marine Le Pen's Team" and les Republicans has just jumped to a 9 point lead for En Marche!

Harris poll:
EM+-ALDE: 29% ↑
LR+-EPP: 20% ↓
FN-ENF: 20% ↓
FI-LEFT: 14% ↑
PS+-S&D: 7% ↓

That's a nice Macron bounce there, bodes well for next month's elections....

[Libertine]

And En Marche announces it's candidates for the elections:


A former female bullfighter, a gifted mathematician and a high-profile anti-corruption magistrate are among the hundreds of candidates who will stand for Emmanuel Macron’s party in France’s general election next month.

Macron, the country’s recently elected president, has promised to renew French political life by aiming to fill the lower house of parliament, the Assemblée Nationale, with MPs who are completely new to the corridors of power. He needs an absolute majority in the house to push through tough reforms.

On Thursday, Macron’s party La République En Marche (La REM) announced the names of 428 candidates for France’s parliamentary elections. They hope the elections will give the new president full power to push through his promised reforms.

The civilian candidates include Marie Sara, a former bullfighter, who will stand for a seat in the Gard, in the south of France, against the Front National heavyweight, Gilbert Collard. Sara was once married to the tennis star Henri Leconte.

Cédric Villani, 43, who in 2010 won the Fields medal, the equivalent of the Nobel prize in mathematics, will stand for Macron in a suburban Paris district. The mathematician is known for his dandy-ish looks, long hair and collection of floppy bow ties.

Also on the list is Eric Halphen, a celebrated anti-corruption judge, and Marion Buchet, a French air force fighter pilot who served in Syria.

Announcing the details on Thursday, party officials admitted they needed to find another 148 people to stand in the remaining constituencies, but insisted they would find them before an extended deadline of Wednesday next week.

The fledgling La REM party has signed up 24 outgoing members of the French assembly – all from the Socialist party of François Hollande – but is hoping to attract a number of heavyweights from the centre-right conservative party Les Républicains.

True to the president-elect’s campaign pledge to “renew” the country’s political class, 52% of the 214 men and 214 women chosen to stand for parliamentary seats are from civil society. The youngest is 24 and the oldest is 72. Of these 93% have jobs, and the remaining handful of civilian candidates are unemployed, retired, or students.

Richard Ferrand, the general secretary of La REM, said on Thursday that 19,000 people had applied to be parliamentary candidates in the past four months “not counting several thousand more who have applied in the last few days” since Macron’s victory. Interviews had been conducted with 1,700 applicants before the final candidates were chosen.

Ferrrand said there had been five criteria: renewal, gender parity, probity, political pluralism and knowledge of, and support for, Macron’s programme.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/11/macron-party-struggling-to-fill-candidate-list-for-elections-next-month



I'd vote for this guy - Fields Medal winning mathematician

[Giono]

A 4 point lead over "Marine Le Pen's Team" and les Republicans has just jumped to a 9 point lead for En Marche!

Harris poll:
EM+-ALDE: 29% ↑
LR+-EPP: 20% ↓
FN-ENF: 20% ↓
FI-LEFT: 14% ↑
PS+-S&D: 7% ↓

That's a nice Macron bounce there, bodes well for next month's elections....

Interesting. FN  at only 20%.

From what I understand, these elections have a run off if no candidate wins 50% of votes in the 1st round, and candidates with less than 12.5% are eliminated from the ballot for the second. I wonder how many constituencies will be contested as evenly as the national Harris poll? I wonder if leftist voters will be as encouraged to vote EM in the 2nd round as they were in the presidential election. I figure there will be even more abstentions.

The Wikipedia page has some history and other polls. Seems to be that EM support is growing over time.

Interestingly Wiki has a seat projection as well showing:

En Marche: 250-290
Les Republicans: 200-210
PS: 25-50
FN: 15-25

That is showing a strong possibility of Macron having a majority in the legislature too. Maybe needing support from the Socialists, which wouldn't be terrible. The Socialists have 280 seats at present...going down 90% is an implosion.

[Libertine]

Macron is asked about his favourite composer/opera. The similarities to Trump are just uncanny.

[GreatEx]

Must be a bad translation, I believe the original French was: "j'aime beaucoup Rossolini et Bechamel. Ils sont tres tres bon, les plus meilleurs, ils sont magnifiques".

[Libertine]

Exit poll from the Nordrhein-Westfalia election - Germany's biggest state and last election before September.

Big win for Merkel's CDU, huge loss for the SPD.

Record high result for the liberal FDP too 

[Giono]

Why is it a huge loss for the SPD? In relative terms it doesn't look huge.


Were they expected to win this vote?

[Libertine]

Why is it a huge loss for the SPD? In relative terms it doesn't look huge.


Were they expected to win this vote?

They should have won. They were in government there (with the Greens) - it's the heartland of the SPD (Ruhr Valleys etc), home of Schulz and he had said that if the SPD won there, they could win in September.

After 12 years in power, for Merkel to gain power in such a key state is huge. Comes on top of SPD losing Schleswig-Holstein and their poll numbers steadily falling over recent months.


Changes from last election:

[Ray K]

And En Marche announces it's candidates for the elections:

I'd vote for this guy - Fields Medal winning mathematician

Not sure if he'll be able to double job as the next Doctor Who as well as being an Assembly member though.

[Banquo's Ghost]

Not sure if he'll be able to double job as the next Doctor Who as well as being an Assembly member though.

He's already done his stint as the 8th Doctor.

[CornerFlag]

They should have won. They were in government there (with the Greens) - it's the heartland of the SPD (Ruhr Valleys etc), home of Schulz and he had said that if the SPD won there, they could win in September.

After 12 years in power, for Merkel to gain power in such a key state is huge. Comes on top of SPD losing Schleswig-Holstein and their poll numbers steadily falling over recent months.


Changes from last election:

SPD is... their Labour, roughly?  And the CDU are more Tories?  In terms of positioning on the spectrum, only had the briefest of glimpses, mind.

[Libertine]

SPD is... their Labour, roughly?  And the CDU are more Tories?  In terms of positioning on the spectrum, only had the briefest of glimpses, mind.

Roughly yes. Although the CDU are MUCH more moderate and centrist than the current Tory party.

Imagine May being completely committed to European integration and willingly taking in 1 million refugees.....

[CornerFlag]

Roughly yes. Although the CDU are MUCH more moderate and centrist than the current Tory party.

Imagine May being completely committed to European integration and willingly taking in 1 million refugees.....

[stoa]

They should have won. They were in government there (with the Greens) - it's the heartland of the SPD (Ruhr Valleys etc), home of Schulz and he had said that if the SPD won there, they could win in September.

After 12 years in power, for Merkel to gain power in such a key state is huge. Comes on top of SPD losing Schleswig-Holstein and their poll numbers steadily falling over recent months.

I would add that Martin Schulz gave the SPD a huge push when it was announced that he was their candidate for the election in autumn. That bonus seems to have vanished already...

[Libertine]

So Macron has chosen his cabinet after picking Republican Edouard Philippe as prime minister.

@JeremyCliffe
Macron's cabinet choices - liberal, post-partisan, gender-balanced, suited to their jobs, resolutely pro-European - are very promising.

Meanwhile, the new ministerial line-up was announced with figures spanning the political landscape.

Conservative moderate Bruno Le Maire is economy minister, the Socialist mayor of Lyon Gerard Collomb is interior minister and veteran centrist François Bayrou is justice minister.

Jean-Yves Le Drian, who was in charge of defence under President François Hollande, will become foreign minister.

Nicolas Hulot, a well-known environmentalist, becomes ecology minister.

Half of the 22-strong ministerial team are women, including Agnès Buzyn as health minister, Olympic fencing champion Laura Flessel as sports minister and Sylvie Goulard as defence minister. The new president had promised a gender-balanced cabinet.

The ministerial list includes:

    Richard Ferrand, territorial cohesion minister
    Mounir Mahjoubi, digital affairs
    Françoise Nyssen, culture
    Murielle Pénicaud, labour
    Jean-Michel Blanquer, national education
    Jacques Mézard, agriculture and food

All of which has the Republicans and Socialists fuming 

A call to support the political project of French President Emmanuel Macron caused disarray among conservatives as Mr Macron's cabinet was unveiled.

More than 170 elected conservatives had agreed to "seize the outstretched hand" of Mr Macron and support his proclaimed political project of bridging the divide between left and right long entrenched in French politics.

But their move was met by a counter-statement signed by more than 570 conservatives.

Ahead of legislative elections in June, Republican campaign chief François Baroin accused Mr Macron of "putting a bomb under politics rather than remodelling it".

Meanwhile the Republicans' deputy secretary general Eric Ciotti was quoted as calling the pro-Macron initiative "a slap" rather than an outstretched hand - suggesting supporting Republicans were opportunistically seeking a role in the new government.

The initiative has also been criticised on the left, with defeated Socialist presidential candidate Benoît Hamon among the dissenters.

"Who can think that the left will pull itself together if it is part of a coalition led by a member of the Republican party?" he said.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39948523

[Libertine]

En Marche continues to surge in polls for the French assembly - now 13% ahead of Republicans and fascists.





It's becoming ever more depressing gazing acoss la manche.....

[Giono]

His party is really surging. I wonder if his choice of prime minister has had an effect.


Wikipedia has a projection of how many seast each party will win...it is showing a EM winning twice as many seats as LR and the FN winning just 15-25. I wonder what their methodology is as France has run-offs for the legislative elections too.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_legislative_election,_2017

[Libertine]

His party is really surging. I wonder if his choice of prime minister has had an effect.


Wikipedia has a projection of how many seast each party will win...it is showing a EM winning twice as many seats as LR and the FN winning just 15-25. I wonder what their methodology is as France has run-offs for the legislative elections too.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_legislative_election,_2017

Apparently the cabinet has 61% approval in polls, so may have had an effect.

Yeah, the seat projection is from the Opinion Way poll, not sure how they do it, but interestingly they had REM at 27% and getting a majority (just). The last Harris poll had them at 32% so presumably would be even more comfortable. With so many parties and such upheavel, not sure how accurate these can be though.

[ShakaHislop]

The centre-left in the UK may well now have a more extreme EU policy than the French far right.

https://www.thelocal.fr/20170522/marine-le-pen-ditches-plans-for-frexit-in-shock-u-turn-far-right-leader-reportedly-now-backs-euro-single-currency