Topic: Brexit - doesn't really seem to be a very good idea does it? (*)

[BobOnATank]

Interesting survey this.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-29-remain-voters-accept-deport-eu-citizens-must-leave-study-lse-oxford-a7889241.html%3famp

Leave voters were found to prefer "no deal" over hard Brexit, as did non-voters.

Just goes to show that they are talking to people with no idea what they are actually talking about. Also far too much talk of percentages rather than hard numbers i.e. smells of bullshit to me

[killer-heels]

Please EU, don't offer a transitional deal. The panic would be immense.

[rafathegaffa83]

Reuters had a piece about pro-Leave supporters in Chatham being agitated at the lack of speed/progression on exit talks. The ages of the Brexiteers, they spoke to: 55, 61, 64, 65 and 85, with ideas such as the following

"This used to be a lovely town, Chatham. Now all you hear is foreigners... They're coming over getting all the benefits, houses, the lot. Struggle, that's all we do. It's not fair. That's what's turned us: immigrants and what they get when they come over here..."Of course it should stop. Blow the tunnel up as well."
https://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKCN1AU164-OCATP

Minorities in the Medway area according to 2011 Census

2001: 5.4% (Non-White); 2011: 10.4%
Percentage of speakers with English as their main language: 94.8%; Percentage of population whose English level is proficient: 98.9%

[ShakaHislop]

Brexit: UK suggests 'temporary customs union' with EU

The UK has set out the "ambitious new customs arrangement" it wants to secure with the EU after Brexit.

Ministers said the plans would mean the "freest and most frictionless possible trade" with the rest of Europe.

This could include a "temporary customs union" after Brexit to prevent border problems as the UK leaves the EU.

Businesses have called for clarity since the UK said it was leaving the customs union - the EU's tariff-free trading area - as part of Brexit.

Countries in the customs union don't impose tariffs (taxes on imports) on each other's goods.

Members also agree to impose the same external tariffs on goods from other countries.

So, for example, a 10% tariff is imposed on some cars imported from outside the customs union, while 7.5% is imposed on roasted coffee.

Other goods - such as soap or slate - have no tariffs.

The UK's departure from the EU's customs union was confirmed at the weekend in a joint article by Chancellor Philip Hammond and Trade Secretary Liam Fox

According to the newly-published government paper, the UK could ask Brussels to establish a "temporary customs union" after it leaves the EU in March 2019.

But during this period, it would also expect to be able to negotiate its own international trade deals - something it cannot do as an EU customs union member.

Once this period expires, the UK will look to agree either a "highly streamlined" border with the EU, or a new "partnership" with no customs border at all.

The government said the interim arrangements would mean businesses would only have to adjust once to the new arrangements.

All of this will have to be negotiated with the EU - and the two sides have not yet even started discussing trade matters.

Other obstacles - including the size of the UK's "divorce bill" - need to be agreed first.

BBC political correspondent Ben Wright said the UK government was "straining to show that it does have a route-map for Brexit".

He said ministers were also attempting to "subtly" put the issue onto the negotiating table sooner than Brussels wants.

EU negotiators have previously said they want to settle the UK "divorce bill" with the EU and the issue of the movement of people before discussing trade.

"They want to hustle EU negotiators into talking about trade much sooner than Brussels intends," our correspondent said.

Cabinet divisions

The customs union document is the first of a series of papers to be published by the UK government on key negotiation issues.

On Wednesday it is expected to set out proposals for the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

The government, which has faced accusations that cabinet divisions are hampering its negotiations, said the publications reflected the "huge body of work" done since the UK voted to leave the EU in June 2016.

As well as collecting duties, customs checks include enforcing environmental and health and safety rules, cracking down on counterfeit goods, and checking "certificates of origin" saying where items have come from.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40922177

[killer-heels]

Surely the EU tells the UK to fuck off?

[west_london_red]

Reuters had a piece about pro-Leave supporters in Chatham being agitated at the lack of speed/progression on exit talks. The ages of the Brexiteers, they spoke to: 55, 61, 64, 65 and 85, with ideas such as the following

Minorities in the Medway area according to 2011 Census

2001: 5.4% (Non-White); 2011: 10.4%
Percentage of speakers with English as their main language: 94.8%; Percentage of population whose English level is proficient: 98.9%

While I'm no way defending the stupidity of these people, you have to remember that the raw numbers don't tell the whole truth. While immigrants make up a small number of the total population, they tend to be younger and of working age so are more 'visible' then their % of the population suggests, making it feel like there's more of them then there really is. There's probably not many Polish people living in old people's homes for example compared to the indigenous population, less of them unemployed, housebound etc.

[ShakaHislop]

Surely the EU tells the UK to fuck off?

Single market membership/fcomprehensive access with no FOM, and a "temporary" customs union but one which allows the UK to simultaneously sign unilateral trade deals. The British government isn't asking for much.   

[killer-heels]

Single market membership/fcomprehensive access with no FOM, and a "temporary" customs union but one which allows the UK to simultaneously sign unilateral trade deals. The British government isn't asking for much.   

It will raise a laugh thats for sure. Its amazing that during the negotiations the government is still putting out positional papers.

[Bend It Like Aurelio]

Reuters had a piece about pro-Leave supporters in Chatham being agitated at the lack of speed/progression on exit talks. The ages of the Brexiteers, they spoke to: 55, 61, 64, 65 and 85, with ideas such as the following

Minorities in the Medway area according to 2011 Census

2001: 5.4% (Non-White); 2011: 10.4%
Percentage of speakers with English as their main language: 94.8%; Percentage of population whose English level is proficient: 98.9%

The first time, and the only time in my life, when I heard the phrase 'look at those fucking Chinese', was standing in line at a train stop in Switzerland with my wife just a couple of years ago. Totally unprovoked. The protagonists were a couple from England whose demographic fits in exactly with the one described in the article above. They probably thought we had zero understanding of English or something.

From then on, my stereotype of old English people, rightly or wrongly, are that of old decrepit folk who wished for the old colonial days to return. What a sad bunch of bitter people, I thought. Sounds exactly like the guy who said blow up the tunnel too.

[redbyrdz]

Surely the EU tells the UK to fuck off?

The EU will say 'divorce negotiations first'. Haven't heard anything about progress on the rights of EU citizens or the Irish border, both explicitely named by the EU as having to be agreed first.



At least they've recognised they'll have to find a solution to the customs problem.

[d.king037]

Reuters had a piece about pro-Leave supporters in Chatham being agitated at the lack of speed/progression on exit talks. The ages of the Brexiteers, they spoke to: 55, 61, 64, 65 and 85, with ideas such as the following

Minorities in the Medway area according to 2011 Census

2001: 5.4% (Non-White); 2011: 10.4%
Percentage of speakers with English as their main language: 94.8%; Percentage of population whose English level is proficient: 98.9%

I live in Medway and the amount of racism is ridiculous. But this is related to the fact that since the Dockyard was closed, the area has been poor economically speaking. Around 7,000 people lost their jobs and eightenn months later, unemployment was still about 20% (http://news.bbc.co.uk/local/kent/hi/people_and_places/newsid_9386000/9386381.stm).

From 2012, "just under one quarter (23.4%) of the working age population are economically inactive (out of work but not unable to work), this includes those claiming work related benefits (20,400) and others who are not claiming benefits but are out of work – approximately 39,300 residents" (http://www.medway.gov.uk/pdf/SOM%20Economy%202012pdf.pdf).

There is also a big divide in Medway between those people who work in London to those who don't - there are high speed services into Kings Cross St. Pancras International that take about half an hour or so. Compared to local jobs, there is a lot of wage inequality caused by this, as the above article states that those living in Medway earn more than those working in Medway.

On the immigration side of things, most people who come over for work appear to tend to work on the farms, particularly on the Hoo Peninsula. However, the villages on the Hoo Peninsula tend not to have many of these immigrants living on it as there is a significant lack of housing so they live in the towns such as Chatham. On top of this, just 23% of the working age population in Medway have a degree/HND qualification (NVQ4) or above compared to 29% in Great Britain and 32% in the South East. Qualifications locally are concentrated at the lower level however fewer people have no qualifications in Medway than nationally (http://www.medway.gov.uk/pdf/SOM%20Economy%202012pdf.pdf).

I would argue that a lot of the frustrations relate to the cost of housing and the lack of more house building in the area. On top of this, there has also been very little investment in infrastructure. In the area that I live, the three closest doctor surgeries (still about twenty minutes away) are over-subscribed and very reluctant to add new patients.

The inequality between those who work in London and those who do not leave many frustrated and looking for reasons why they struggle. The media narratives in recent years that blame immigrants for problems, as well as the derogatory headlines over the Syrian refugees, has led to people here latching onto this.

[Libertine]

@PickardJE
Dose of cold water this morning from European Commission: "'Frictionless trade' is not possible outside Single Market and Customs Union."



Well, that lasted all of about 25 minutes. What next? We build an army of custom control bots?

[Red-Soldier]

Our government are just a bunch of clowns in a circus.

[killer-heels]

Bill Esterson, the Labour shadow small business minister, had an absolute nightmare just now on 5live. Kept being asked whether Labour position is to be in or out of the customs union and single market and he kept saying the agreement and trade will be exactly the same as now.

Maybe all these MP's are on to something here that us common folk are not aware of. Maybe their plan of not looking at it, not accepting it, sticking their fingers in their ears and just repeating their own line in their own head will make this all go away?

[ShakaHislop]

Bill Esterson, the Labour shadow small business minister, had an absolute nightmare just now on 5live. Kept being asked whether Labour position is to be in or out of the customs union and single market and he kept saying the agreement and trade will be exactly the same as now.

Maybe all these MP's are on to something here that us common folk are not aware of. Maybe their plan of not looking at it, not accepting it, sticking their fingers in their ears and just repeating their own line in their own head will make this all go away?

From Starmer's press release yesterday

“Labour is clear that we need to retain the benefits of the Customs Union and avoid a cliff-edge for the British economy. That means committing now to strong transitional arrangements on the same basic terms we currently enjoy - including the Single Market and the Customs Union.”

http://press.labour.org.uk/post/164188770564/latest-incoherent-and-inadequate-proposals-on

"Retain the benefits" suggests out of the CU, and what are the "basic terms" exactly? Would Labour accept FOM in a transitional deal, as that seems a fundamental/basic term of our existing Single Market/CU arrangement?

[Libertine]

From Starmer's press release yesterday
http://press.labour.org.uk/post/164188770564/latest-incoherent-and-inadequate-proposals-on

"Retain the benefits" suggests out of the CU, and what are the "basic terms" exactly? Would Labour accept FOM in a transitional deal, as that seems a fundamental/basic term of our existing Single Market/CU arrangement?

Meaningless have-cake-and-eat-if guff from Starmer as usual.

He's condemning the government for having exactly the same non-policy as Labour.

[oldfordie]

Sounds like the Torys are working on all the excuses to blame the EU and defend themselves from criticism.
They were ready and prepared to negotiate a deal. the EU were inflexible.
 I wouldn't be surprised if the Torys are also trying to find a way to pass this Brexit mess onto the next government. "Temporary customs union"  get us out and let future governments argue for the impossible Brexit.

[Libertine]

Insights from Davis' former chief of staff:

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/media/2017/08/10-times-james-chapman-slammed-his-former-boss-david-davis?amp

[Libertine]

Ian Dunt destroys the government's approach. Again.

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2017/08/15/the-government-s-customs-union-plan-is-an-absolute-dog-s-bre


This ends the article above:

This stuff is so unrealistic you might as well file it under sci-fi. It is a pamphlet of desperation. And then, at the end, comes the punchline, as the Brexit department announces its consultations with businesses and trade groups on the new arrangement. "The government would particularly welcome views on…. whether [it] should consider any additional or alternative proposals".

In other words: We don't know what we're doing. Please help us.

Through it all, one question sticks with you: Why the hell are we doing this? This is not even about Brexit. It’s about leaving the customs union, which is a frankly insane thing to do. Officials defending these plans say that leaving the EU means leaving the customs union. It does not. That is a choice taken by the British government. This dog's breakfast is the result. Imagine what else we could be doing with our time.

[oldfordie]

Brilliant. sums up the attitude of many people towards Brexit.

[Libertine]

Bill Esterson, the Labour shadow small business minister, had an absolute nightmare just now on 5live. Kept being asked whether Labour position is to be in or out of the customs union and single market and he kept saying the agreement and trade will be exactly the same as now.

https://twitter.com/bbc5live/status/897399357435035648

Painful. Utterly painful to listen to this. Just treating people like idiots.

[Trada]

https://twitter.com/bbc5live/status/897399357435035648

Painful. Utterly painful to listen to this. Just treating people like idiots.

Its hard for Labour they don't know how the talks are going and what maybe be on offer talks with Labour would be very different not much pressure for a hard Brexit like the Tories have.

The EU have already called the new Tory document a fantasy document.

[killer-heels]

Its hard for Labour they don't know how the talks are going and what maybe be on offer talks with Labour would be very different not much pressure for a hard Brexit like the Tories have.

The EU have already called the new Tory document a fantasy document.

I dont think saying we will have the same terms, when its actually impossible, convinces anyone. Maybe this is just an election tactic in terms of being as vague as fuck which is fine. If so, then Labour should have put someone better at the bull shit on.

[classycarra]

Not the first time Corbynistas have turned up on Women's Hour expecting an easy ride, only to be skewered for their ill prepared bullshitting and vague/dishonest positioning. They take us all for fools.

Excellent journalism, once again, from Barnett. Around 3 and a half minutes in you can see the same look in his eyes, and the same slowed and defeated sound in his voice as Abbott displays when she realises her bullshit won't wash on this occasion

[Zeb]

Its hard for Labour they don't know how the talks are going and what maybe be on offer talks with Labour would be very different not much pressure for a hard Brexit like the Tories have.

The EU have already called the new Tory document a fantasy document.

There's the old truism that the job of the opposition is to oppose everything and propose nothing. So, yeah. But. Failing to clearly state a position here, out of party interest, prevents any crossparty attempt to do something which would stop the Tories from pursuing a 'hard' Brexit. There'll be little comfort to many of us if Labour's refusal to put forward workable alternatives means we get pushed under the post-Brexit bus. Even should Corbyn become PM after such a Brexit, he's going to cop every single bit of blame for the government decisions which will follow. Fingerpointing will only get Corbyn so far, as politically convenient as it is now.

[Alan_X]

Its hard for Labour they don't know how the talks are going and what maybe be on offer talks with Labour would be very different not much pressure for a hard Brexit like the Tories have.

The EU have already called the new Tory document a fantasy document.

It's a simple question. He couldn't answer.

[Libertine]

Its hard for Labour they don't know how the talks are going and what maybe be on offer talks with Labour would be very different not much pressure for a hard Brexit like the Tories have.

The EU have already called the new Tory document a fantasy document.

The positions of Labour and the Tories are virtually identical - we want all the good stuff with none of the reponsibilities.

[Red-Soldier]

Its hard for Labour they don't know how the talks are going and what maybe be on offer talks with Labour would be very different not much pressure for a hard Brexit like the Tories have.

The EU have already called the new Tory document a fantasy document.

Labour's position is as realistic as the Tories, it's bullshit.

Unless both parties change dramatically, I can see us coming away without a deal.

Sure, the EU will give a little, it's called a negotiation afterall, however, we have to give too.

All we have at the moment is a meaningless wishlist.

[BobOnATank]

Loose statement about the border http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-40941393

I can see a few issues:

1. This requires the ROI to implement UK rather then EU customs rules - I think that'll be a no
2. Small/Medium companies are exempt? - how do you manage that - black market will explode
3. Large companies in NI & ROI - how can they operate? so a large company in ROI has to apply the UK custom rules to trade within the EU block? - I think that'll be a no
4. Large companies in both regions - usually two legal entities under a group, global or otherwise, company structure - can the two "companies" no longer work together as they would be subject to UK trade restrictions or vice versa
5. How can companies under a UK trade agreement impact the ROI? Trade is not just company to company but also personal transport of goods - will we see large organisations lined up on both sides of the border! This leads back to the usual NI position that Nationalists hate the border but make the money from it while Unionists support it but make nothing from it - NI a place of constant contradictions.

And that's just off the top of my head. I cannot (except for the political angle) see how there isn't a solution were NI is treated as a special economic area in both EU & UK with exports to each respective area is governed by the appropriate legislation otherwise its a hard border. Otherwise it is either the british position of include the island of Ireland within the UK customs zone (which I don't think Ireland or EU will accept) or separating the island of Ireland from Great Britain (which the DUP and their 10 votes will not accept).

[ShakaHislop]

The argument for some against EU freedom of movement is that it discriminates against non-EU nationals, yet the Common Travel Area which Brexit Britain wants to maintain discriminates against anyone who isn't Irish or British. How is that becoming more outward-looking? How do we stop the Irish coming over to "destroy working conditions" for Brits?

I say this as a British born Irish citizen (via two Irish parents)

[PaulF]

Even if leaving the EU were a sensible thing to do. The enormity of having it all organised in 2 years is mind boggling. It's going to take them for years to clean a bell and tower and they cant agree if the bell should be stopped first. At what point can they say its a ridiculous timescale and find someway to extend negotiations?

[Zeb]

Jonathan Portes and Anand Menon have written a good essay on where we are, what lies ahead, and what choices are open to the country. Not going to cut loads of bits out of it, and it's a fairly lengthy read, but sure there'll be a few on here who'll be interested in the points they raise: https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/the-debate-about-a-brexit-transition-is-a-phoney-war

Behind the political smoke and mirrors, it seems clear that the government has, for all practical purposes, abandoned the idea that we will be discussing how to implement a new, post-Brexit arrangement with the EU. Instead, it is concentrating on devising arrangements that will allow it to say that we have indeed left the EU, in fact as well as in law, while preserving the fundamentals of the EU-UK economic relationship for a time-limited period until a future trade agreement is negotiated (and perhaps implemented).

Perhaps we should have talked to the EU before launching a debate about transition amongst ourselves?

[oldfordie]

Jonathan Portes and Anand Menon have written a good essay on where we are, what lies ahead, and what choices are open to the country. Not going to cut loads of bits out of it, and it's a fairly lengthy read, but sure there'll be a few on here who'll be interested in the points they raise: https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/the-debate-about-a-brexit-transition-is-a-phoney-war

Perhaps our MPs should have been a bit more responsible before rushing into triggering art 50.
This was argued on here before the triggering of art 50, how Labour could have refused to vote to trigger art 50 until they were convinced the Torys were ready to negotiate. Brexit means Brexit ?
We knew the 2 yr timescale was ridicules yet our MPs waved the union jack and said anyone who doesn't vote to trigger art 50 is a traitor who doesn't respect democracy.
Ive always been convinced people in yrs to come will look back at this period in disgust. the vast majority of our MPs,Tory and Labour let the country down badly.

[ShakaHislop]

The government's customs union plan is an absolute dog's breakfast

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2017/08/15/the-government-s-customs-union-plan-is-an-absolute-dog-s-bre

[So… Howard Philips]

The first time, and the only time in my life, when I heard the phrase 'look at those fucking Chinese', was standing in line at a train stop in Switzerland with my wife just a couple of years ago. Totally unprovoked. The protagonists were a couple from England whose demographic fits in exactly with the one described in the article above. They probably thought we had zero understanding of English or something.

From then on, my stereotype of old English people, rightly or wrongly, are that of old decrepit folk who wished for the old colonial days to return. What a sad bunch of bitter people, I thought. Sounds exactly like the guy who said blow up the tunnel too.

So based on Reuters interviewing 5 people in Medway and some people in a queue who fit in with the Reuters demographic, which ranged from 55 to 85, you have a stereotype of old English people.

I'm not sure whether you are being ironic but you seem to be condemning any English person over 55 as an old racist.

Isn't that as prejudiced as the people in the queue?

[killer-heels]

So based on Reuters interviewing 5 people in Medway and some people in a queue who fit in with the Reuters demographic, which ranged from 55 to 85, you have a stereotype of old English people.

I'm not sure whether you are being ironic but you seem to be condemning any English person over 55 as an old racist.

Isn't that as prejudiced as the people in the queue?

To be fair, they tend to be more often than not against immigration.

That said, the young are prejudiced in their own ways towards race, if that makes people feel any better.

We are all just a bunch of racists to differing degrees.

[So… Howard Philips]

To be fair, they tend to be more often than not against immigration.

That said, the young are prejudiced in their own ways towards race, if that makes people feel any better.

We are all just a bunch of racists to differing degrees.

People in Medway or people over 55?

[killer-heels]

People in Medway or people over 55?

People over 55. Immigration is rejected in higher numbers with that demographic.

That said, the young have no reason to just label them as the only ones with a problem.

[So… Howard Philips]

People over 55. Immigration is rejected in higher numbers with that demographic.

That said, the young have no reason to just label them as the only ones with a problem.

As an about to be a pensioner I was being sarcastic.

I get fed up with some of the comments on here labelling a particular generation.

It wouldn't be tolerated in relation to other groups.

[killer-heels]

As an about to be a pensioner I was being sarcastic.

I get fed up with some of the comments on here labelling a particular generation.

It wouldn't be tolerated in relation to other groups.

Such as?