Really good at finishing and clinical are probably the two biggest red flag descriptors when considering any forward who is having a break out season. Best case scenario they will be good but over-priced. Worst case they just ran hot and are shit.
Interestingly, for a statistical viewpoint, this is true. The greater indicator, oddly, is getting into position for high-percentage chances. Finishing them is not incidental, but slightly underperforming your xG isn’t as concerning long term as massively over-performing it or not consistently getting chances. All the great forwards miss chances, but bounce back and take as many as they squander.
Look at Darwin and Haaland. People can talk about Haaland’s ‘clinical’ finishing as much as they want, but he misses as many, if not more big chances than other top strikers. Darwin misses chances. But they’re both always there in the right place to get at those chances. Gyökeres has an xG of 15.2 against 22 goals this season. That’s an alarming over-performance and I’m just not sold that he’s elite and will end up dragging those underlying numbers in line, especially in a higher league. Haaland has 18 goals against an xG of 21, and Nunez has 10 against 13.5 - proving both are creating and finding opportunities but could be more clinical.
Gyökeres is giving me Lacazette vibes in that he won’t be elite in a top league despite statistics pointing the contrary.