Topic: Local Elections 2023 - Tactical voting site

[liverbloke]

torys mainly saying - yeh we've lost 100s but nobody likes starmer nah nah na nah nah 

[Statto Red]

Tory's have lost Medway to Labour.

For context, general elections [Chatham and Aylesford], is a bellwether seat, Labour won in it 97, Tory's won it in 2010 & held it since then

[TepidT2O]

torys mainly saying - yeh we've lost 100s but nobody likes starmer nah nah na nah nah 

Yeah, I think they’re in real trouble. It seems to me that people are literally doing anything they can to get rid of tories.
And it’s worth bearing in mind that the reaction at local elections (where you’re more likely to know the candidate) will be more positive for the tories than at the general election

[TepidT2O]

Tory's have lost Medway to Labour.

For context, general elections [Chatham and Aylesford], is a bellwether seat, Labour won in it 97, Tory's won it in 2010 & held it since then

Same in stole… That lovely Guilis chap is MP there, would be a shame if he lost his seat eh?!

[Elmo!]

torys mainly saying - yeh we've lost 100s but nobody likes starmer nah nah na nah nah 

It's not really a great line... they are losing hundreds of seats to somebody nobody likes. What does that say about them?

[Circa1892]

According to the posh boy PM it’s a sign the people want him to reel off his weird lines to take set of pledges. And the fact they won a seat or two in shitholes like Peterborough and Bassetlaw mean he’s beloved. Knob.

[Red Beret]

Some Tory bigwig saying, "yeah, we lost Stoke, but Corbyn won the seat in 2017 so let's face it, it's a low bar for Labour"

[gazzalfc]

217 unemployed tories as of right now with not even a quarter of the votes counted.

Today is a good day

[Statto Red]

Some Tory bigwig saying, "yeah, we lost Stoke, but Corbyn won the seat in 2017 so let's face it, it's a low bar for Labour"

Should be more concerned losing Medway, likely to lose the general election if they lose the Westminster equivalent.

[reddebs]

It's all so fucking childish isn't it with the 'well labour haven't done that well' excuses.

It's not really about that guys, it's that your voters don't want you around anymore.  They'd rather have anyone other than you.

[jillcwhomever]

torys mainly saying - yeh we've lost 100s but nobody likes starmer nah nah na nah nah 

 
You can always tell when the Tories are in trouble they start talking about the Labour Party. 😀

[Libertine]

"We've been hammered in the polls, but the message people are sending us is to continue doing exactly the same"

[So… Howard Philips]

You fill out a form, send it to your local electoral registration office and that's it.  It takes the same ten minutes but that's it going forward.  It's the best thing I did, and for my missus because she never voted before.

And the only justified allegation if voter fraud in the mainland, albeit in very small numbers, was postal voting.

Not alleging that you did that of course……

We both voted yesterday, me first thing as I was out for the day, Mrs P after work and poll staff were helpful.

What impressed me was that I was coming home after taking her to work at 9am there was a Labour canvasser in the street. When I got home she had a tale of woe that her bus (at least ten minutes of woe) late and it was cold and windy getting to the polling station. As she finished the door bell went and it was another Labour canvasser who hit his ear bent for the next ten minutes.

And she forgot to tell the poor sod that we’d voted Labour. 

We live in a pretty leafy suburb of Chester, which has a newly elected Labour MP, and they have worked really hard with pre election publicity and canvassing.

[So… Howard Philips]

torys mainly saying - yeh we've lost 100s but nobody likes starmer nah nah na nah nah 

They’ve been reading the Labour thread on here?

[gazzalfc]

Labour were only 3 votes away from gaining majority control of Hartlepool council. Would be interesting to see how many people were turned away due to the new ID laws

Tories looking at losing 1000 seats.

[So… Howard Philips]

Labour were only 3 votes away from gaining majority control of Hartlepool council. Would be interesting to see how many people were turned away due to the new ID laws

Tories looking at losing 1000 seats.

Did the monkey get to vote?

[Ray K]

Looks like a classic pincer move on the Tories - Labour gains in the north and midlands, Lib Dem gains in the south west. People are going to tactically vote the shit out of the next general election.

[Schmarn]

Terrible night for the Tories. Decent night so far for Labour. We need to see how it pans out today as only a quarter of councils have counted. Winning in Medway, Stoke and Plymouth is excellent but a few disappointments in there like not winning Bolton (we are the largest party though) even though the whole council was up and so far the Labour projected national share of the vote is a little anaemic at 36%. Part of that is due to Greens and Independents taking some of the protest vote.

So it’s good but none of us should assume this means a Labour majority at the GE.

[Machae]

Labour were only 3 votes away from gaining majority control of Hartlepool council. Would be interesting to see how many people were turned away due to the new ID laws

Tories looking at losing 1000 seats.

3 votes? Any process for a recount?

[Lusty]

Tory's have lost Medway to Labour.

For context, general elections [Chatham and Aylesford], is a bellwether seat, Labour won in it 97, Tory's won it in 2010 & held it since then

Medway is traditionally so right wing that it's the only place in the country ever to have a UKIP MP.  If they haven't held on there then they're really in trouble.

[CornerFlag]

Only good Tory politician is an unemployed Tory politician.  Glad to see these tossers getting a kicking.

[Yorkykopite]

This seems decent for Labour, if not overwhelming. Labour had hit a Corbyn low at the last local elections and therefore under Starmer it was always destined to recover lots of seats.

But for the Tories there's no doubt this is an unfolding disaster. They also hit a low four years ago under May. But no recovery for them, to put it mildly!

[Dr. Beaker]

And the only justified allegation if voter fraud in the mainland, albeit in very small numbers, was postal voting.

Not alleging that you did that of course……

We both voted yesterday, me first thing as I was out for the day, Mrs P after work and poll staff were helpful.

What impressed me was that I was coming home after taking her to work at 9am there was a Labour canvasser in the street. When I got home she had a tale of woe that her bus (at least ten minutes of woe) late and it was cold and windy getting to the polling station. As she finished the door bell went and it was another Labour canvasser who hit his ear bent for the next ten minutes.

And she forgot to tell the poor sod that we’d voted Labour. 

We live in a pretty leafy suburb of Chester, which has a newly elected Labour MP, and they have worked really hard with pre election publicity and canvassing.

Never keep the Labour bloke talking, just tell him he's preaching to the converted and send them away. Keep the Conservative one there as long as possible (wasting his time). Tell him you've voted Conservative all your life, but you are voting Labour this time. Try to kill morale as much as possible and give them all the worst messages.

[west_london_red]

Terrible night for the Tories. Decent night so far for Labour. We need to see how it pans out today as only a quarter of councils have counted. Winning in Medway, Stoke and Plymouth is excellent but a few disappointments in there like not winning Bolton (we are the largest party though) even though the whole council was up and so far the Labour projected national share of the vote is a little anaemic at 36%. Part of that is due to Greens and Independents taking some of the protest vote.

So it’s good but none of us should assume this means a Labour majority at the GE.

That’s an age old problem but it’s becoming more acute, the left/liberal vote gets split more and more as the Greens grow in popularity and to make things worse where as before the right vote was split between Brexit Party and UKIP and the Tories thats not happening so much anymore, and despite all the talk a few months ago about Reform UK they don’t seem to be in the running in these elections or making much impact.

[Red Beret]

 
You can always tell when the Tories Everton are in trouble they start talking about the Labour Party LFC/BMD/potential investment . 😀

[Red Beret]

Never keep the Labour bloke talking, just tell him he's preaching to the converted and send them away. Keep the Conservative one there as long as possible (wasting his time). Tell him you've voted Conservative all your life, but you are voting Labour this time. Try to kill morale as much as possible and give them all the worst messages.

I like this.

[Yorkykopite]

Never keep the Labour bloke talking, just tell him he's preaching to the converted and send them away. Keep the Conservative one there as long as possible (wasting his time). Tell him you've voted Conservative all your life, but you are voting Labour this time. Try to kill morale as much as possible and give them all the worst messages.

We went to the same school.

My other variation, which I've only managed once (such is the scarcity of Tory canvassers) is to say I'm a life-long Tory but that I can't vote this time for 'Candidate X' because he won't bring back the death penalty, believes in gay marriage, is too nice to blacks etc. That smokes the fuckers out. You get commiserations and excuses and "actually Candidate X hates gays too but he's got to be careful".  Then you hit them with a sidewinder. "Plus I hate the Royal Family".

[Libertine]

That’s an age old problem but it’s becoming more acute, the left/liberal vote gets split more and more as the Greens grow in popularity and to make things worse where as before the right vote was split between Brexit Party and UKIP and the Tories thats not happening so much anymore, and despite all the talk a few months ago about Reform UK they don’t seem to be in the running in these elections or making much impact.

True, and there will always be seats where the progressive vote splits quite clearly and lets a Tory through. However, this also allows the progressive parties to attack the Tories on multiple fronts - rural and urban, north and south, affluent and struggling. The Tories are trying to defend both their traditional support base and their new Brexity base, and seem to be failing miserably at keeping this balance.

Lab/LDs/Greens do need effective targeting strategies though to minimise those seats where the Tories scrape though with 35-40%.

[tubby]

Even without any accompanying info, I don't think I would've struggled to work out which of these two was the Labour option and who the Tory was at my local.

[So… Howard Philips]

Never keep the Labour bloke talking, just tell him he's preaching to the converted and send them away. Keep the Conservative one there as long as possible (wasting his time). Tell him you've voted Conservative all your life, but you are voting Labour this time. Try to kill morale as much as possible and give them all the worst messages.

I’ve done that!

Mrs P took the opportunity to vent her spleen about the poor local bus service, just to give the canvasser something to chew on.

[Charlie Adams fried egg]

Never keep the Labour bloke talking, just tell him he's preaching to the converted and send them away. Keep the Conservative one there as long as possible (wasting his time). Tell him you've voted Conservative all your life, but you are voting Labour this time. Try to kill morale as much as possible and give them all the worst messages.

Some nice spin bowling here & from Yorky. It’s good fun isn’t it? I love it when they try to lecture me on stuff like managing debt / pensions policy etc. Most don’t have the depth of knowledge to sustain their position.

In terms of results so far, Tories are trying to pitch it as a binary Labour v Tory contest whereas it’s a bit more subtle than that. There’s areas that are never going to be Labour, so councils going from Tory to NOC, or Tories to the Dems are important metrics beyond purely Labour gains. Even seat changes away from Tories in areas where they’ve held the councils could point to wider trends away from the Tories.

I think tactical voting has been a factor, but the big risk for me is how the anti Tory vote may be split in a GE.

[Wabaloolah]

Terrible night for the Tories. Decent night so far for Labour. We need to see how it pans out today as only a quarter of councils have counted. Winning in Medway, Stoke and Plymouth is excellent but a few disappointments in there like not winning Bolton (we are the largest party though) even though the whole council was up and so far the Labour projected national share of the vote is a little anaemic at 36%. Part of that is due to Greens and Independents taking some of the protest vote.

So it’s good but none of us should assume this means a Labour majority at the GE.

woman I used to work with lives in Bolton, moans like fuck about the state of the country but votes Tory.


Local elections are different to general elections in many ways, turnout will be about 20-25% in these locals, in a GE it will be between 60 and 70.


Greens and Lib Dems always do well in local elections but not so well in general elections.


Local factor at play is part of the reason whereas general elections are fought on national issues.


Look at past elections when general and local are fought on the same day. In 2001, Labour won a landslide of a 160 seat majority but Tories made gains locally, same in 2005 Tories lost the GE comfortably but won the locals that took place on the same day

[redbyrdz]

Medway is traditionally so right wing that it's the only place in the country ever to have a UKIP MP.  If they haven't held on there then they're really in trouble.

Don't think it works like that anymore, that UKIP etc are seen as to the right of the tories, and if there's no UKIP candidate, voters will fall back on voting tory. Those people that vote for UKIP are much more likely to vote for an independent, or most likely, not vote at all. They want to "stick two fingers up to the establishment", so not very likely to vote tory or even labour.

[TSC]

Brexit voting ‘red wall’ looks to have wised up to Tory shenanigans according to sky news reports (and maybe the truth of Brexit has landed).

[BarryCrocker]

Brexit voting ‘red wall’ looks to have wised up to Tory shenanigans according to sky news reports (and maybe the truth of Brexit has landed).

Unfortunately you can't unscramble an egg.

[Lusty]

Don't think it works like that anymore, that UKIP etc are seen as to the right of the tories, and if there's no UKIP candidate, voters will fall back on voting tory. Those people that vote for UKIP are much more likely to vote for an independent, or most likely, not vote at all. They want to "stick two fingers up to the establishment", so not very likely to vote tory or even labour.

I think it did work that way back in 2014 though, UKIP were definetely trying to outflank the Tories from the right at that point.  It's different now with the red wall collapse and the Brexit Party turning into Reform UK.

[Jshooters]

It's all Putin's fault apparently

https://www.thepoke.co.uk/2023/05/05/tory-chair-blames-putin-for-election-results/

[gazzalfc]

There are a lot of 'No overall control' councils so far. There will have to be alot of further deals and mini coalition councils formed in order to get any actual work done at .

The good thing about this election cycle is that there isn't any/many far right/left representatives in the guise of BNP/UKIP.

Also whilst I hope there will be a majority Labour government at the next General Election, it will probably be closer than that so now is the time to start feeling the waters for a coalition

[gazzalfc]

Liverpool results so far

Labour - 21
Lib dem - 9
Green - 2
Independent - 1

There are 85 seats on offer so under halfway through. Can't really compare this to previous years because there have been huge changes to local wards in Liverpool 

[thaddeus]

I see the stomping ground of Andrew Bridgen - North West Leicestershire - has been lost by the Tories.  Labour are now the majority party with 17 councillors but fell three short of taking outright control.  I guess Bridgen will try to spin it as being a result of the Tories removing the whip from him.  I look forward to his wife's "tell-all" book she's been threatening to write for the past few weeks.

The Tories have also lost control of South Kesteven which contains the birthplace and the statue of the rotten hag.  The independent candidates have stormed it there, including taking the seats of the council leader and deputy leader.