Topic: Get out of our country yer gang of fucking bellends. TORIES OUT!

[Sangria]

I am maybe not up on my Scottish politics but that seems to show Labour getting Glasgow which seems like an absolute massive get - I would have thought (perhaps incorrectly) that was one of the SNP heartlands

Neil Ruddock is an absolute massive get.

[Felch Aid]

Interest rates on hold as expected.

Sunak is waiting for 3 things before he calls an election

1. Drop interest rates (maybe 2)
2. His Ryanair flight to Rwanda
3. Inflation below 3%.

I can't imagine the country giving him until Jan 2025

[Lisan Al Gaib]

I can't imagine the country giving him until Jan 2025

The country doesn't have a choice

[Dr. Beaker]

Interest rates on hold as expected.

Sunak is waiting for 3 things before he calls an election

1. Drop interest rates (maybe 2)
2. His Ryanair flight to Rwanda
3. Inflation below 3%.

I can't imagine the country giving him until Jan 2025

I think Sunak is paralysed with fear.

[Lusty]

The country doesn't have a choice

The country are just going to make it worse for him the longer it takes.  The longer he leaves it, the worse the result is going to be.  If he tries to limp on until January he'll get punished even more.

I think we might have topped out on the CON-LAB switchers now, but I think there's going to be a slow dribble of support moving to Reform as the year goes on and the boat crossings increase.

[thaddeus]

Have they started talking about "green shoots" yet?

[Andy @ Allerton!]

Interest rates on hold as expected.

Sunak is waiting for 3 things before he calls an election

1. Drop interest rates (maybe 2)
2. His Ryanair flight to Rwanda
3. Inflation below 3%.

I can't imagine the country giving him until Jan 2025

You'd think it would be commercial suicide to be involved in such a shithouse action - have any been confirmed yet?

Imagine that they'd get a barrage of abuse, people refusing to use them, picket lines and general harrasment from the public. Can't see their staff happy to work for such an organisation either really..

[killer-heels]

Interest rates on hold as expected.

Sunak is waiting for 3 things before he calls an election

1. Drop interest rates (maybe 2)
2. His Ryanair flight to Rwanda
3. Inflation below 3%.

I can't imagine the country giving him until Jan 2025

There is no way there will be an election in Jan because that will involve campaigning during Christmas.

Its definitely happening in either October or November.

[cornishscouser92]

I am maybe not up on my Scottish politics but that seems to show Labour getting Glasgow which seems like an absolute massive get - I would have thought (perhaps incorrectly) that was one of the SNP heartlands

No the highlands are SNP heartlands - Perthshire, Inverness, Stirling, Aberdeen etc.
On current Scottish polling which gives Lab a small lead - Lab will take Glasgow, most of Edinburgh, what's in between the two cities & the outer Hebrides.

[PaulF]

Interest rates on hold as expected.

Sunak is waiting for 3 things before he calls an election

1. Drop interest rates (maybe 2)
2. His Ryanair flight to Rwanda
3. Inflation below 3%.

I can't imagine the country giving him until Jan 2025

Ryanair flight ry-234 bound for Rwanda will be landing shortly in Oslo.... If Ryanair airport proximity to where they claim to be flying holds up.

[TSC]

There is no way there will be an election in Jan because that will involve campaigning during Christmas.

Its definitely happening in either October or November.

IMO that’s one of the reasons why there will be a January election (when you accept defeat why help rush Labour in) the others being;

1. Gives Tories as long as possible to keep drawing their salaries/pension contributions and to sort out jobs beyond the GE.
2. Timing coinciding with the potential shenanigans re the US election (look over there).

[west_london_red]

IMO that’s one of the reasons why there will be a January election (when you accept defeat why help rush Labour in) the others being;

1. Gives Tories as long as possible to keep drawing their salaries/pension contributions and to sort out jobs beyond the GE.
2. Timing coinciding with the potential shenanigans re the US election (look over there).

I think 1 will be a factor for some Tories, but the likes of Sunak will make much more money out of Parliament than inside it. I’ve never understood the importance of 2 to our elections

[TSC]

I think 1 will be a factor for some Tories, but the likes of Sunak will make much more money out of Parliament than inside it. I’ve never understood the importance of 2 to our elections

Media here will be all over the US election like a rash, particularly if, as appears likely, it’s Trump involved, and all the madness that will accompany that.  Plus there are enough loons on the right of the Tories who back him.  Truss for example stated that last week.

If the UK GE did take place in Jan that would coincide with the inauguration of the US president.

[TepidT2O]

GDP up 0.6%

The little dipshit will claim his plan is working, whilst good people wonder why they  still have fuck all money to spend.

Let’s hope this lulls him into claloung a July election, but I don’t think it will

[Red Beret]

GDP up 0.6%

The little dipshit will claim his plan is working, whilst good people wonder why they  still have fuck all money to spend.

Let’s hope this lulls him into claloung a July election, but I don’t think it will

"GREEN SHOOTS! WE GOT GREEN SHOOTS!"

Media here will be all over the US election like a rash, particularly if, as appears likely, it’s Trump involved, and all the madness that will accompany that.  Plus there are enough loons on the right of the Tories who back him.  Truss for example stated that last week.

If the UK GE did take place in Jan that would coincide with the inauguration of the US president.

I don't think they bother with an inauguration if Biden wins reelection. He just basically carries on. I imagine the Capitol still has to certify the vote though.

[TSC]

GDP up 0.6%

The little dipshit will claim his plan is working, whilst good people wonder why they  still have fuck all money to spend.

Let’s hope this lulls him into claloung a July election, but I don’t think it will

Didn’t take the Tories long to shout about it

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uks-hunt-growth-figures-show-economy-has-returned-health-2024-05-10/

[TSC]

I don't think they bother with an inauguration if Biden wins reelection. He just basically carries on. I imagine the Capitol still has to certify the vote though.

The far right of the Tories will be hoping the orange one wins

[Red Beret]

The far right of the Tories will be hoping the orange one wins

They're gonna be disappointed.

Didn’t take the Tories long to shout about it

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uks-hunt-growth-figures-show-economy-has-returned-health-2024-05-10/

"returned to health"? That's like using a defibrillator on someone, getting a heartbeat back and the doctor saying, "okay, job done. Put the guy in a taxi and send him home". Which given the current state of the NHS, probably isn't too far from reality...

[thaddeus]

GDP up 0.6%

The little dipshit will claim his plan is working, whilst good people wonder why they  still have fuck all money to spend.

Let’s hope this lulls him into claloung a July election, but I don’t think it will

It was a better performance in the first few months this year than most economists, including those at the Bank of England, initially expected, and growth more buoyant than in the major European nations.

But that may not be apparent to many people; strip out inflation and population growth, and what number crunchers call GDP per head was 0.7% lower than a year ago.

Put it another way, on average we were each the equivalent of £100 also worse off than a couple of years ago. There’s more to do.

Hopefully people see through this for what it is; a strangled economy being given a breath of air ahead of an election.  It's been apparent for a long time that Hunt's policies have entirely been geared around the next election.

That GDP per head figure being lower also doesn't account for inequality.  If most people feel worse off then it's because they very much are.

[Red Beret]

Hopefully people see through this for what it is; a strangled economy being given a breath of air ahead of an election.  It's been apparent for a long time that Hunt's policies have entirely been geared around the next election.

That GDP per head figure being lower also doesn't account for inequality.  If most people feel worse off then it's because they very much are.

If the election was two years away I'd be more concerned. Thankfully, it's less than 9 months. I can't see many people suddenly feeling like they want to trust the Tories with the economy for another five years.

As you say, Hunt's gameplan is going to be built on scaremongering that Labour will destroy the recovery, rather than trumpeting Tory economic policy.

[killer-heels]

That 0.6% growth thing is all Westminster bubble stuff. Even if it was higher, the end of the road has been reached by the Tories.

[TSC]

Hopefully people see through this for what it is; a strangled economy being given a breath of air ahead of an election.  It's been apparent for a long time that Hunt's policies have entirely been geared around the next election.

That GDP per head figure being lower also doesn't account for inequality.  If most people feel worse off then it's because they very much are.

The beeb article quoted doesn’t make any reference to baseline comparisons with EU states.  In isolation and absent any baseline comparison the line ‘growth more buoyant than other European Nations’ (I thought we were no longer in Europe but whatever) means zip.

I doubt the other states referred to hit so low a bar as none had the madness of Johnson,Truss et all at the helm

[Red-Soldier]

The average person in the UK, couldn't give a shit about growth.  All they want to know is why they are paying more, for less......?

[west_london_red]

Its very a very double edged sword I suspect as the BoE will just see this very modest growth (although more then forecasts) as a reason not to cut rates as it seems to them any growth is too much these days and they seem determined to kill it off in case it causes inflation.

[has gone odd]

Playing a little bit of devil's advocate here ..

While it seems certain that the current Tory Party is just about the most shambolic in history, Labour in charge may actually do no better to improve anything. I base this on no fact at all other than the country is in such a sorry state it would take any reasonable and sane political party many years to correct the utter mess of an economy and social decline, certainly more than the 4 years they will be reasonably given before the sheeple give up and vote this shitshow back in.

Furthermore, Tory MPs defecting to Labour doesn't help Labour massively surely, will just end up being Tory Party part 2? Only reason to defect (but say you don't agree with their policy) is that they are almost certainly backing a losing pony by staying Tory.

Maybe this view is extremely simplistic.

[oldfordie]

Playing a little bit of devil's advocate here ..

While it seems certain that the current Tory Party is just about the most shambolic in history, Labour in charge may actually do no better to improve anything. I base this on no fact at all other than the country is in such a sorry state it would take any reasonable and sane political party many years to correct the utter mess of an economy and social decline, certainly more than the 4 years they will be reasonably given before the sheeple give up and vote this shitshow back in.

Furthermore, Tory MPs defecting to Labour doesn't help Labour massively surely, will just end up being Tory Party part 2? Only reason to defect (but say you don't agree with their policy) is that they are almost certainly backing a losing pony by staying Tory.

Maybe this view is extremely simplistic.

I think your overlooking how we got in this mess in the first place, we had a incompetent right wing government who based all their decisions on what was best for them personally. what was best for their m8s who would look after them personally and what was best for the Tory party,
Of course it will take time for Labour to repair the damage this Tory government have done but it will happen, the reason it will happen is obvious, Labour understands why things went wrong, they understand what needs to be changed to repair the damage.
First of all they will need to bring in more revenue to improve lives, they have to bring back competency to decision making, decisions will be based on improving the service etc rather than Tory propaganda to bring division to win votes.
The Torys did this for years, from deliberately orchestrating industrial disputes hoping they could smear Labour for supporting the strikers, immigration, stop the boats. the Torys never supported leaving the EU but they were happy to rip the country apart over it if it won them votes. all this has cost the country £100s billions over the years, money lost through lost revenue and money thrown away that could have spent on services.
I think that's the difference, competent politicians who understand what went wrong basing their decisions on solving problems to make the country a better place in many ways.
I don't think you are playing devils advocate, you said your basing your decisions on nothing, I think your looking at it the wrong way that's all, you assume Labour will have failed if they can't make dramatic improvements inside 4 yrs.

Am afraid the public also have to take some reasonability for what's happened today, many of us said the country would be f... if the Torys are allowed in again yet in they come with a 80seat majority. if those people think they can blame Labour for not repairing the damage they helped create in just a few years then they have not learned a thing over the last 8yrs or so. about time people wised up.

[Jiminy Cricket]

Playing a little bit of devil's advocate here ..

While it seems certain that the current Tory Party is just about the most shambolic in history, Labour in charge may actually do no better to improve anything. I base this on no fact at all other than the country is in such a sorry state it would take any reasonable and sane political party many years to correct the utter mess of an economy and social decline, certainly more than the 4 years they will be reasonably given before the sheeple give up and vote this shitshow back in.

Furthermore, Tory MPs defecting to Labour doesn't help Labour massively surely, will just end up being Tory Party part 2? Only reason to defect (but say you don't agree with their policy) is that they are almost certainly backing a losing pony by staying Tory.

Maybe this view is extremely simplistic.

UK trading arrangements will vastly improve under Labour. And they will manage everything better too - this will encourage investment and might even ease the cost of borrowing.

Of course it will be an uphill struggle. But things will improve, even if slowly. Whereas now, under the Tories, everything will continue to get worse. I think most people understand this - or, at least I hope they do and will cut Labour some slack over the slowness of the UK's economic recovery.

[has gone odd]

Ahh no not at all, I do not assume that Labour will have to fix things in 4 years or they will have failed, but I do believe that by the next election a benchmark of sorts will need to have been set that shows some clear progress. Time will tell.

When researching modern politics, it is difficult to find places that offer balanced and impartial opinions. If you follow Labour you might pick up the New Statesman, if you are Tory you get the Torygraph and so on. If you follow it religiously, I certainly don't as you can tell, you may have many impartial sources.

Reason I state that is that where I work, for example, we have quite a split in political bias, many are SNP (here in Scotland) but plenty support Labour and there is even a few Tories clinging on. Each and every one of them will have a fierce argument for why they should get support and all the greatness they can and will do. The stark reality is that most parties, after a time, start to lose touch with society, it happened with Labour in their last term and certainly happened with every Tory government.

Of course I am not in any way going to vote Tory, never have or will, they stand for nothing good in any moral sense. Smug and extremely unlikeable personalities, all mashed up with lies and mismanaged policy.

Labour, as the only real alternative, will surely be able to improve trade and human rights, am quietly confident about this since under Tory it has regressed by several decades.

I really want to sit and vote in the next general election and be as confident as anyone here that Labour will do things right, but of course they and we all make mistakes sometimes. I really hope the tide can turn.



 

[filopastry]

Playing a little bit of devil's advocate here ..

While it seems certain that the current Tory Party is just about the most shambolic in history, Labour in charge may actually do no better to improve anything. I base this on no fact at all other than the country is in such a sorry state it would take any reasonable and sane political party many years to correct the utter mess of an economy and social decline, certainly more than the 4 years they will be reasonably given before the sheeple give up and vote this shitshow back in.

Furthermore, Tory MPs defecting to Labour doesn't help Labour massively surely, will just end up being Tory Party part 2? Only reason to defect (but say you don't agree with their policy) is that they are almost certainly backing a losing pony by staying Tory.

Maybe this view is extremely simplistic.

Just to say on the Tory defections so far, neither will be standing again in the next election so won't be in the PLP or influencing the party at that level when we (hopefully!!) are in government.

I am taking nothing for granted on the election, so it defections make the govt look weak and shambolic I am more than happy to see them happen.

I think its a very different story if they are going to stand as a Labour candidate for the GE, I think the bar to clear then would have to be an awful lot higher.

[Kenny's Jacket]

Just to say on the Tory defections so far, neither will be standing again in the next election so won't be in the PLP or influencing the party at that level when we (hopefully!!) are in government.

I am taking nothing for granted on the election, so it defections make the govt look weak and shambolic I am more than happy to see them happen.

I think its a very different story if they are going to stand as a Labour candidate for the GE, I think the bar to clear then would have to be an awful lot higher.

Christian Wakeford has.
https://labourlist.org/2022/11/former-tory-mp-christian-wakeford-confirmed-as-labour-candidate/

[oldfordie]

Ahh no not at all, I do not assume that Labour will have to fix things in 4 years or they will have failed, but I do believe that by the next election a benchmark of sorts will need to have been set that shows some clear progress. Time will tell.

When researching modern politics, it is difficult to find places that offer balanced and impartial opinions. If you follow Labour you might pick up the New Statesman, if you are Tory you get the Torygraph and so on. If you follow it religiously, I certainly don't as you can tell, you may have many impartial sources.

Reason I state that is that where I work, for example, we have quite a split in political bias, many are SNP (here in Scotland) but plenty support Labour and there is even a few Tories clinging on. Each and every one of them will have a fierce argument for why they should get support and all the greatness they can and will do. The stark reality is that most parties, after a time, start to lose touch with society, it happened with Labour in their last term and certainly happened with every Tory government.

Of course I am not in any way going to vote Tory, never have or will, they stand for nothing good in any moral sense. Smug and extremely unlikeable personalities, all mashed up with lies and mismanaged policy.

Labour, as the only real alternative, will surely be able to improve trade and human rights, am quietly confident about this since under Tory it has regressed by several decades.

I really want to sit and vote in the next general election and be as confident as anyone here that Labour will do things right, but of course they and we all make mistakes sometimes. I really hope the tide can turn.

Have I misunderstood, you said Labour may not do any better to improve things than the Torys. then went on to say you base this on them needing more than 4yrs. now your adding they will need to show the public signs of things improving which is something we have been saying and given the reasons why it will happen, Labour will bring competency to decision making. decisions will be based on improving things and not trying to cause division to win votes.

I think this forum is a good sauce of information and opinions. it's not so much where the info comes from it's whether the info in the news report or article etc is something the poster thinks is a good enough to debate on here. it all helps us form a educated view on who is bullss and who makes valid decent arguments we agree with. you rarely see any articles from the Daily Mirror for example so it's not blind tribalism. it's about the standard of info to help us form opinions. that can come from anywhere.

It's something you may have missed that's been debated on here in the past, it's all about debate and challenging opinions, it is extremely important when it comes to forming opinions, we all read something we may think is good but then you hear other opinions on here giving the counter argument to convince you the points you may have agreed with aren't that good.

I know it will never happed but it's a shame more people don't debate politics more so they can defend their strong opinions, many would struggle. if they were honest enough to accept they are wrong when their opinions are shown to be based on nothing but meaningless empty slogans etc then the country wouldn't keep electing charlatans and bulls....

[Red Beret]

How many regular voters are really fully aware of who Elphicke is? Feels like the media on the left is going into overdrive with articles to explain to everybody what a biatch she is and why this is the death knell of the Labour Party.

I'm only guessing, as obviously Elphicke's ex-husband is a convicted sex offender, but I think that most people are about as arsed about her background as they are about the economy growing 0.6%.

She'll literally be gone in around 6 months, eight tops. This to me is about hurting the Tories and that's all it is about.

[filopastry]

Christian Wakeford has.
https://labourlist.org/2022/11/former-tory-mp-christian-wakeford-confirmed-as-labour-candidate/

He has but I think that is a different situation, he at least joined earlier in the Parliament where it doesn't look as much as if you are just jumping ship to save yourself, its a bit different at this stage in the Parliament, when time is getting shorter for a miracle to save this horrible govt

Plus unusually at the time I did see reports that he worked pretty well with Labour locally, its very different to someone like Elphicke.

[has gone odd]

No I don't think you mis-understood me at all, perhaps I didn't do a great job at explaining my thinking. I believe Labour will need far more than 4 years, however in general (you have to generalise with these types of thing) I think people will need to see some kind of improvement or Labour run the risk of losing support and the cycle will begin. I believe as time goes on society gets more impatient and want quick fixes for everything. To be clear, I want the new government to be given as much time as needed, though it helps of course when there is some kind of progress along the way. Or at the very least, no lies and an end to this destructive self preservation politics we are currently stuck with.

RAWK is my go to source for most things, it covers an extremely wide range of topics on just about anything so I can say for sure I do read peoples opinions on here and take on board quite a lot of opinion, provided it is impartial and balanced!

[filopastry]

No I don't think you mis-understood me at all, perhaps I didn't do a great job at explaining my thinking. I believe Labour will need far more than 4 years, however in general (you have to generalise with these types of thing) I think people will need to see some kind of improvement or Labour run the risk of losing support and the cycle will begin. I believe as time goes on society gets more impatient and want quick fixes for everything. To be clear, I want the new government to be given as much time as needed, though it helps of course when there is some kind of progress along the way. Or at the very least, no lies and an end to this destructive self preservation politics we are currently stuck with.

RAWK is my go to source for most things, it covers an extremely wide range of topics on just about anything so I can say for sure I do read peoples opinions on here and take on board quite a lot of opinion, provided it is impartial and balanced!

I think its a very fair concern, the other issue is that we are still an aging society, which will put ever more pressure on the public finances, from that point of view things will get worse not better.

I suspect going into the election Labour may end up pitching this as a decade to turn the country around rather than one Parliament, its an important campaign coming up for setting tone and expectations.

[Red Beret]

The Tories have done generational damage to the country. It will certainly take Labour more than 4 years to restore the nation's prosperity - although of course we all dearly hope to see some measurable improvement in that time, rather than the Tories just impulsively smashing everything to bits like some kind of deranged toddler.

I'm kind of hoping Labour don't go for an early election as we need them to maximise their time in office. If we can secure closer ties to Europe, resolve some of the shortages we're having - especially on medication - and start paying down the national debt, we may see some scope for tax cuts around three years down the line. In the meantime, I'm hoping Labour can redirect resources into restoring public services and away from whatever the hell they're being spent on now.

[oldfordie]

No I don't think you mis-understood me at all, perhaps I didn't do a great job at explaining my thinking. I believe Labour will need far more than 4 years, however in general (you have to generalise with these types of thing) I think people will need to see some kind of improvement or Labour run the risk of losing support and the cycle will begin. I believe as time goes on society gets more impatient and want quick fixes for everything. To be clear, I want the new government to be given as much time as needed, though it helps of course when there is some kind of progress along the way. Or at the very least, no lies and an end to this destructive self preservation politics we are currently stuck with.

RAWK is my go to source for most things, it covers an extremely wide range of topics on just about anything so I can say for sure I do read peoples opinions on here and take on board quite a lot of opinion, provided it is impartial and balanced!

I agree with everything you say but I do think the public need to take some responsibility for what has happened. It's sad but true but the voters who believe they are all the same always fall for the biggest charlatans of all, UKIP gained a massive following of people who refused to vote for years yet they voted/supported for one of the biggest charlatans and bullss. of all, Frottage. now many have gone back to their life long belief that all politicians are the same which is actually absurd when you give it serious consideration. I would like to see them defend that opinion on here, they would look fools. did any of them know who Owen Patterson was or Chris Bryant back in 2016-20, we did and we knew they weren't remotely the same. their values and integrity are poles apart.
People will argue they want our politicians to be honest. ok Labour are being honest, they refuse to promise they will make things lovely again within a few yrs because they know it can't happen, all they can do is build the foundations to help us make things better again.
Am afraid they cant have it both ways, they cant vote for Frottage because Reforms manifesto promises lovely things and then say they are all the same.  it's just a fantasy. Frottage is taking them for mugs as usual.

[PaulF]

No I don't think you mis-understood me at all, perhaps I didn't do a great job at explaining my thinking. I believe Labour will need far more than 4 years, however in general (you have to generalise with these types of thing) I think people will need to see some kind of improvement or Labour run the risk of losing support and the cycle will begin. I believe as time goes on society gets more impatient and want quick fixes for everything. To be clear, I want the new government to be given as much time as needed, though it helps of course when there is some kind of progress along the way. Or at the very least, no lies and an end to this destructive self preservation politics we are currently stuck with.

RAWK is my go to source for most things, it covers an extremely wide range of topics on just about anything so I can say for sure I do read peoples opinions on here and take on board quite a lot of opinion, provided it is impartial and balanced!

It's a bit like a football club. Managers get less time to turn the ships around and they have to show improvement in their first season or they are already on dodgy ground.

[PaulF]

I agree with everything you say but I do think the public need to take some responsibility for what has happened.

Unfortunately, I think 'the public' are less and less able to / inclined to try to use solid reasoning and debate.  Soundbites, memes and lots of forms of instant gratification feed the mind nowadays. It's all takeaways and ready meals and not a home cooked meal.

[Jiminy Cricket]

I think this forum is a good sauce of information and opinions.

Sometimes, it is more of a soup of scatterbrained ideas.