Here's what will happen:
1 - Sue Gray's report will say that parties happened, that they were misguided but not illegal (as they took place on crown property). Following the report Reynolds will obviously go - Simon Case is massively, massively weakened aswell.
2 - Johnson will say the report shows he did nothing illegal, followed the guidance, vaccines etc BUT that he acknowledges the hurt caused - and therefore won't continue as PM beyond the next general election, playing the card of resigning whilst not actually resigning at all. Says to the Tory backbenchers who are angry - why get rid of me, I'm going anyway.
3 - Sunak and Truss destroy each other by briefing each other to death - meaning either Johnson stays on or Gove wins in late 2023.
4 - Somehow England still votes the fuckers in.
I think it's gone too far for that, the economy sleaze, corruption and Europe destroyed Major's government between 1992 and 1997. I now have hope that they at least won't be the largest party at the next election.
The next election campaign (2 years away) all these lies need to be on party literature, make the campaign all about the government's record, Brexit will really start to be hitting home too by then, levelling up will be shown to be the myth it was always going to be.
Johnson is fucked and the best thing about it is there is nobody screaming out as ready to replace him.
Keir has a very good chance of being the PM after the next election. Governments lose elections, the opposition rarely win them