Topic: COVID-19:VERIFIED news sources, 0 politishit, 0 CONSPIRACY SHITE

[12C]

Seeing as you are talking about the government when I said "the general populace", I suggest reading my posts with a more careful eye next time.

Sorry for quoting you out of context. But I thought you were referring to the populace self flagellating because we as a country fucked up.

[Andy @ Allerton!]

Rabb has the intelligence of a squashed halibut

[redbyrdz]

Wonder if a nudge from government prompted it.

Yeah, I found the timing of that article suspicious too.

Not keen on the message either. "Some people die anyway, can't do anything, get used to it."

Also this graphic with the death risk per age - supposedly the corona virus risk has to be added to the normal risk?

[12C]

Does anyone else hear the oars rowing back.
It’s almost as though Boris the Bold has jumped the gun in an attempt to gain approval, and has raised our national expectations of a removal of restrictions. All I can hear is people saying it is only “a road map” that is being announced on Sunday at 7. (Ironic given its Raab talking about maps) it’s almost like they are trying to damp down the enthusiasm Johnson has sparked..
Sturgeon has cut the legs from under them by rejecting a lifting of the lockdown in any case. However it is clear that there is a damage limitation exercise going on.

[Zeb]

Remains the biggest irony of the government's handling that the thing they're actually meant to be good at is the part which they consistently fuck up the most. Every time I see clips of Merkel she's there explaining issues with clarity and purpose. Sturgeon has done well on that part too in her press conferences. And then you look at the goat rodeo of Westminster government and their relationship with press and inability to just be what we ought to expect from a government.

[TSC]

Yeah, I found the timing of that article suspicious too.

Not keen on the message either. "Some people die anyway, can't do anything, get used to it."

Also this graphic with the death risk per age - supposedly the corona virus risk has to be added to the normal risk?

Joe Bloggs who still has a view of ‘its only the flu’ may have produced a more informed article.

[stevo7]

Raab really doesn't inspire me with any confidence that this Government has a clue what they're doing.

You might as well put a pint of lager on the stand and leave it at that

I reckon he has a communication implant which Cummings is shouting down replies. In that last answer, he's never used those words in his life.

Germany can give exact R numbers, but we have a wide laltitude.

Also whats this 'technical hitch' around testing? BS!

All is getting set up for that twat BoZo.

[TepidT2O]

Science and Technology committee today.  Still on.  Few points;

‘R’ number is currently between 0.75-1, so higher than the figure as per government daily briefing (think 0.65 was mentioned).  Contribution to this high figure is the high figure in healthcare settings.

ONS will release data next week regarding prevalence of covid-19 in the UK community.  When asked by the chair why this data wasn’t released until now, response confirmed government didn’t request this data until late April.

Chair was also critical of Public Health England for withholding requested info.  Can’t recall what this info related to.

In terms of the R value I think there are a couple of issues we need to be aware of.

R seems to be increasing a little, it is likely that this is due to the epidemic in care homes.  It  is most likely that the R value is lowest in London as continues to fall as the epidemic wanes there.  I suspect it varies a considerable amount from area to area.

Significantly 82% of adults have nit left their homes in the last week (or have done so only for permitted reasons) and 92% are taking care to avoid vulnerable people.
The others are a concern, but the level of compliance is really quite astonishing after several weeks of lockdown.

[ShakaHislop]

I reckon he has a communication implant which Cummings is shouting down replies. In that last answer, he's never used those words in his life.

Germany can give exact R numbers, but we have a wide laltitude.

Also whats this 'technical hitch' around testing? BS!

All is getting set up for that twat BoZo.

From the mouth of Jennie "international exemplar in preparedness" Harries.

https://xcancel.com/lewis_goodall/status/1258429250736140288

[J_Kopite]

Sorry for quoting you out of context. But I thought you were referring to the populace self flagellating because we as a country fucked up.

No worries, it happens

[TSC]

To put that wide margin of the ‘R’ number update of 0.5-0.9 in context, at today’s science and technology select committee the scientists put ‘R’ at between 0.75-1.

So actual is closer to ‘0.9’ (maybe is 0.9) than 0.5

[Corrie Nick]

Greece is saying they want to open up boarders for tourist's from July 1st.

Sounds like something from Hostel.

[TSC]

In terms of the R value I think there are a couple of issues we need to be aware of.

R seems to be increasing a little, it is likely that this is due to the epidemic in care homes.  It  is most likely that the R value is lowest in London as continues to fall as the epidemic wanes there.  I suspect it varies a considerable amount from area to area.

Significantly 82% of adults have nit left their homes in the last week (or have done so only for permitted reasons) and 92% are taking care to avoid vulnerable people.
The others are a concern, but the level of compliance is really quite astonishing after several weeks of lockdown.

Yep London would appear to potentially be ahead of other regions (in England).

[Zeb]

Who was the male scientist on it there? Thought it was a good point on highlighting that a reproduction rate of 1 when there's very few cases is a different thing to a reproduction rate of 1 when there's a load. Part he left unsaid was what happens when exponential growth kicks in again (even if slowly) and how long before we'd be back in lockdown if we're barely below that even without having a big happy announcement to make Boris look good. Would be nice to have the science journos back in for some questions to the experts about that kind of thing.

edit: estimates on where things are at currently, from one group advising government, both as a country and by region: https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/national/united-kingdom/

[jepovic]

These figures about % infected etc are really out of sorts with anywhere else. Sweden never had a full lockdown, but people still stayed home a lot more, there is social distancing, etc. All in all they have probably social distanced as much as countries like the Netherlands or Belgium. Its almost as if they want their people to believe everything is fine, so there's no need to shutdown the economy...

The thing avout the herd immunity figure is also that it depends on R0 without any measures in place.

Herd immunity is 1 - 1/R0. So if R0=4, the herd immunity threshold is 1-1/4 = 75%. If R0=3, its 66%, etc.

One conclusion from that is, if the virus is really more infectious than we think (because cases are much higher), the immunity threshold is higher too. (That is why measels with R0 = 12 needs nearly everyone to be vaccinated to stop it from spreading)

The other side of this is, R is dropping the more people are immune, because there is a higher chance that new contacts have already had the virus. So reaching the immunity threshold is not a linear process.

Pretty sure this is a misunderstanding. What the Swedish head epidemiologist has stated is that Stockholm should start to see effects of the immunity, that it will start to slow down the spread. That's not the same as full herd immunity, which is what you describe. If Stockholm has 35-40% immune, it won't stop the spread completely but it will have significant effect.

[PeterJM]

How is the R number dropping when the number of daily cases is staying around the same number?

[filopastry]

How is the R number dropping when the number of daily cases is staying around the same number?

More testing I would think, we are still only picking up a small proportion of cases in our testing I would think, just a slightly bigger proportion than we used to.

[12C]

I reckon he has a communication implant which Cummings is shouting down replies. In that last answer, he's never used those words in his life.

Germany can give exact R numbers, but we have a wide laltitude.

Also whats this 'technical hitch' around testing? BS!

All is getting set up for that twat BoZo.

The Scientist says testing has basically plateaued (because of a hitch) but the numbers of people testing positive is going up because testing is going up.

Can anyone explain that.

[Bincey]

Who was the male scientist on it there? Thought it was a good point on highlighting that a reproduction rate of 1 when there's very few cases is a different thing to a reproduction rate of 1 when there's a load. Part he left unsaid was what happens when exponential growth kicks in again (even if slowly) and how long before we'd be back in lockdown if we're barely below that even without having a big happy announcement to make Boris look good. Would be nice to have the science journos back in for some questions to the experts about that kind of thing.

edit: estimates on where things are at currently, from one group advising government, both as a country and by region: https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/national/united-kingdom/

Prof Ian Diamond. ONS.

[12C]

No worries, it happens

👍

[Zeb]

Prof Ian Diamond. ONS.

Thank you.

[Red Beret]

Bank holiday Friday I'd imagine?

Goodness, I am out of touch.  I just had to google it to find the bank holiday had been shifted for the VE Day anniversary. 

[Thepooloflife]

In terms of the R value I think there are a couple of issues we need to be aware of.

R seems to be increasing a little, it is likely that this is due to the epidemic in care homes.  It  is most likely that the R value is lowest in London as continues to fall as the epidemic wanes there.  I suspect it varies a considerable amount from area to area.

Significantly 82% of adults have nit left their homes in the last week (or have done so only for permitted reasons) and 92% are taking care to avoid vulnerable people.
The others are a concern, but the level of compliance is really quite astonishing after several weeks of lockdown.

Yeah, but I think the figures are from the week 17 - 24 April and that figure of 82% not left home, while still high, is a bit out of date given the increased activity by people this past week or so......so it may well be lower than that now ?

[Sudden Death Draft Loser]

Goodness, I am out of touch.  I just had to google it to find the bank holiday had been shifted for the VE Day anniversary. 

This belongs in the things that annoy you thread, at least from my perspective.

[djahern]

No, then you have to think about the delays in people dying and in the reporting of the deaths. If that delay is 3-4 weeks, then you're basically back at the 10% in early April again - so about twice as high death rate.

Also, this was Geneva, not all of Switzerland. I don't know the number of deaths there, but major cities have generally been worse off.

The famous 0.8% in the Imperial report seems way off though, but I think pretty much everyone else agrees on that now.

Study points at an IFR of 0.5, not way off the 0.8. Study also seems to point out that less of the over 50 population have had the virus - if that population had picked up the virus (if there were no restrictions in place) the IFR would be higher. It’s difficult to gauge an accurate IFR of the virus in populations that are practicing social distancing as it’s likely reducing the number of the most vulnerable that would pick it up in the absence of social distancing.

[Zeb]

Pesto's been briefed. https://xcancel.com/Peston/status/1258446689003810816

What worried cabinet ministers today was the disclosure to them that the rate of transmission of Covid19 is not properly under control in either hospitals or care homes. In the community, R - the rate of transmission - is probably as low as 0.5/0.6, which means its savage progress through the population has been arrested. But in the very places where the frail and sick are supposed to be shielded, too many people are still being newly infected. Ministers were especially shocked to learn that some hospitals are really struggling to manage the rate of spread of illness. That is why Dominic Raab announced today that for the UK as a whole, R has deteriorated a bit and is in the range of 0.5 to 0.9. And 0.9 is too close to 1 - the threshold for exponential growth in infection - for comfort. This explains why the prime minister has said that restrictions on our basic freedoms, to see who we want and where and when we want, will be relaxed with great caution.

What he will announce on Sunday is a "roadmap" for progressive changes to the lockdown, with u-turns written into that roadmap, which would be triggered should the rate of infection surge again. His plan will be very technical, conditional and arduous. We will get to see our nearest and dearest again (though only in small numbers), and work more away from home (at a proper two metre distance from co-workers) and shop for non-essentials, all in the coming weeks and months, so long as we continue to do our socially distancing best and the virus also behaves as it is supposed to do.

[ShakaHislop]

Pesto's been briefed. https://xcancel.com/Peston/status/1258446689003810816

If it's not so sensitive that Peston can receive a text about it from Dominic, why wait until Sunday to announce it?

[Zeb]

If it's not so sensitive that Peston can receive a text about it from Dominic, why wait until Sunday to announce it?

Should be announced in Parliament first but this government doesn't like scrutiny til after it's had its headlines.

[scouseman]

Does anyone remember what Hancock's "5 pillars" were?

See here mate
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52374513

[TSC]

On channel 4 news now story about the mystery of governments missing PPE.  Government could not provide anyone to comment on the situation.  Wonder why.

[TSC]

How is the R number dropping when the number of daily cases is staying around the same number?

Don’t think that’s correct, R number (range) has increased compared to previous range announced in daily briefings.  The range referred to today (science and technology select committee) is 0.75-1.0

[Zeb]

Thing which stands out from Peston's briefing to me is that you've got a government who planned (twice!) around shielding the most vulnerable yet still turn up to a cabinet meeting weeks into lockdown to be 'shocked' that it hasn't happened in hospitals and care homes. The failure there, against warnings and advice, is their's and their's alone.

[Eeyore]

Does anyone remember what Hancock's "5 pillars Pillocks" were?

[jillc]

An interesting item from the Guardian saying the WHO has asked governments around the world to clinically test a herbal drink which has been touted by Madagascar's President Andry Rajoelina as a remedy against coronavirus. It's apparently derived from artemisia a plant which has proven anti-Malaria properties. There have been claims that it can cure the virus from patients within ten days.

[Welshred]

An interesting item from the Guardian saying the WHO has asked governments around the world to clinically test a herbal drink which has been touted by Madagascar's President Andry Rajoelina as a remedy against coronavirus. It's apparently derived from artemisia a plant which has proven anti-Malaria properties. There have been claims that it can cure the virus from patients within ten days.

So following the natural history of the disease then...

[jillc]

Here is an earlier story about this from the Associated Press.

 https://apnews.com/4f3e72213f9284e4abab6de3fa0550c9

There was also an earlier BBC report on this and the WHO was quite cold on it, which makes you wonder why suddenly they are asking Governments to test it now. Interestingly so far in Madagascar as in April there have been 128 cases of the virus and no deaths.

[ShakaHislop]

One of my neighbours, upon finishing their clapping, has gone inside another house across the road. 

[12C]

Thing which stands out from Peston's briefing to me is that you've got a government who planned (twice!) around shielding the most vulnerable yet still turn up to a cabinet meeting weeks into lockdown to be 'shocked' that it hasn't happened in hospitals and care homes. The failure there, against warnings and advice, is their's and their's alone.

And after tonight’s rowing back on Johnson’s planned “hoorah for lifting lockdown show” we have Pesto getting briefed that all is going to fuck in the care sector and in some hospitals. Would that be because they don’t have proper PPE or it that too simplistic
 

[Zeb]

And after tonight’s rowing back on Johnson’s planned “hoorah for lifting lockdown show” we have Pesto getting briefed that all is going to fuck in the care sector and in some hospitals. Would that be because they don’t have proper PPE or it that too simplistic
 

Would think you're right on PPE being a big part, thinking of social care in particular, as well as inability to adequately test nor adequately isolate potential cases etc. Other part to it I'd suggest would be government effectively washing its hands of social care issues (again) with their inability to focus past the NHS and local councils being left to scramble to try and patch up what they can with what little they've got. First warnings, without needing hindsight or even touching what they were up to before then, were late March so ministers have had long enough to be reasonably up to speed on the situation and to be tracking it.

[Thepooloflife]

Here is an earlier story about this from the Associated Press.

 https://apnews.com/4f3e72213f9284e4abab6de3fa0550c9

There was also an earlier BBC report on this and the WHO was quite cold on it, which makes you wonder why suddenly they are asking Governments to test it now. Interestingly so far in Madagascar as in April there have been 128 cases of the virus and no deaths.

I think the cases are up to 149 now (as of 5 May) but, yes no deaths. It does beg the question why are WHO asking govt's to test it, especially, as it says in the report there, the medical experts at Madagascar's Academy of Medicine are critical of the drink.