Pre 2020 normality is a dream. Social distancing and masks, which affect a lot of how we behave and act, will be around for a good long while. That will affect businesses, sports, leisure etc.
I disagree with that. I believe we'll see pre-2020 normality pretty much by mid summer if not before.
The virus will still be around, people will still catch it, and some will still die from it. But those numbers will be tiny compared to what we have right now.
With regard to social distancing remaining for the longer term, it's important to distinguish between the varying degrees of what is 'social distancing'. I think what most people regard as social distancing will be largely gone by mid summer. What may remain is periodical requests for people to take certain measures - wearing a mask on the tube for example will almost certainly come back in next Winter. That's a far cry from not being allowed to visit your family or go to the pub.
The measures restricting visiting family etc I think will begin to disappear in Spring when the pressure on the hospitals is relieved and community prevalence has fallen considerably. It will be important though not to rush into this at the first sign these measures are falling and stick with them until we really drive down both numbers. It's at this point that wide spread vaccination plays its role - preventing a resurgence like we've seen in March and December. A successful vaccination campaign can keep this to the kind of levels we see with influenza. We'll see increased pressure on hospitals during winter but nothing like this past one.
There is an incorrect air of thinking in government and the public that vaccination is our saviour from this situation and will force the numbers of infections and deaths down. That's incorrect. We can really only achieve that quickly in the short term by limiting transmission using social distancing. It will take a long time for vaccination alone to achieve the same. The importance of vaccination comes after social distancing has achieved the aims of reducing transmission - preventing any future surges in transmission, and preventing us from needing the kind of measures we have now to regain control. It will work best if current social distancing remains in place long enough to bring transmission levels right down - the lower it is when we release social distancing restrictions the better mass vaccination will work at keeping control of it.
What we also require in place for Spring-Summer and then longer term into the future is a robust surveillance system to monitor community prevalence stretching out over the next 5 years. This has to be linked to a large viral genome surveillance running alongside it - constantly monitoring for changes to the virus and as an early detection system for any variants that might be giving a transmission advantage. We also need ongoing surveillance of immunity levels in the population over this and subsequent years so we can adapt our vaccination programme to what's needed. These things wont be cheap, but they have to be done and in the long run are way cheaper than the alternatives of shutting down the economy.