There is a chip shop near us, you can order online, pick up your order, you wear a mask when you enter and mostly wait outside socially distanced whilst your order is prepared. Everyone I have seen has followed the rules and stood apart and kept apart.
Next door, the same chip shop has an eat in facility, in there you get people sitting eating without any protection, many of these are people who look like the sort of people who would not stand a chance if they developed covid.
This has become a symbol of this disease to me, confused thinking and consequently confused rules and two separate audiences, the careful/thoughtful/worried side and the don't give a fuck side whether based upon ignorance, a sense of confidence or 'no-one tells me what to do'. I would not want to put numbers on it but the general feel I get is about 48:52 albeit I would imagine there are many in both groups who are just slavish to families or influencers.
I lean toward this conclusion as well.
I don’t think the Barnard Castle incident led directly to people being less adherent to the lockdown back in spring, at least how most people interpret it anyway. It did contribute to it though in a less direct way in my eyes. From the moment of Cummings rose garden statement we increasingly hid our science experts from the daily briefings, they were cancelled about 6 weeks later I think? We then barely heard from them all summer.
This was at the exact time we had a proliferation of covid deniers and manipulators of statistics on social media. They gained control of the narrative for many people and it’s been a losing battle trying to change their point of view since we vacated the information space in early June - a space deliberately vacated by this government so they no longer had to answer questions regarding Dominic Cummings.
These are the people you’ve seen in your local chip shop, these are the people I saw this morning sitting in the waiting room of a garage for an hour oblivious to the risks. They’ve read on Twitter or social media that this isn’t as serious as they were first led to believe, our hospitals aren’t overloaded, lockdowns don’t work, and every identified case is false positive. We allowed these thoughts to proliferate all summer and all autumn. Now when we need to enforce a strict lockdown, we realise (or soon will) we lost a substantial proportion of the public to this covid denial nonsense months ago and we won’t convince them otherwise. They can tighten the rules all the want, it won’t make these people believe they are necessary and follow them.