Topic: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"

[Mutton Geoff]

Fucking hell MP’s are not that bright.

Your Damascus moment?

[Skeeve]

Your Damascus moment?

More likely to be daily amazement at how often they manage to lower the bar.

[ShakaHislop]

Varadkar: Removing backstop 'is effectively no deal'

The taoiseach (Irish prime minister) has said removing the backstop from the Withdrawal Agreement, would be "effectively the same as no deal".

Leo Varadkar was responding to comments from some candidates seeking to replace Theresa May as prime minister.

Many contenders have proposed changes to the backstop, even though the EU says it is not up for renegotiation.

Mr Varadkar said: "If we don't have that (the backstop), there is no deal".

Speaking on Irish National Broadcaster RTÉ's Marian Finucane programme, the taoiseach said it was "alarming" some leading Conservatives were suggesting a no-deal Brexit.

"It's a legal guarantee and legally operable guarantee that we will never see a hard border again," Mr Varadkar said of the backstop.

He also responded to calls for a time limit to be attached to the backstop.

"The difficulties we have with a time limit, is effectively you are saying there will or could be a hard border once that time limit expires - that isn't a backstop," he said.

"What we are open to, and always have been open to, is alternative arrangements that perhaps could avoid a hard border, through procedures and technologies and so on.

"What we expect, and I don't think it's unreasonable - we want to see that fleshed out, we want to see it exist, it demonstrated before we are willing to give up the backstop.

"What people are saying is, 'give up the backstop' which we know will work legally and operationally in return for something that doesn't yet exist but might exist in the future.

"I can't do that to the border communities."

Mr Varadkar also said he was "concerned at the idea, and there is an idea there in Westminster, in London, that somehow Theresa May was a bad negotiator and got a bad deal.

"That's not true. She was a good negotiator, she had a good team.

"She probably got the best deal that she could get given that a country leaving the EU doesn't have much leverage.

"The fact that the failure of the House Of Commons to ratify the Withdrawal Agreement somehow means they are going to get a better deal, that is just not how the European Union works," he said.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48647656

[drmick]

I'm not sure if this was his own idea, or if he has an inside source on Team Boris, but Michael Portillo thinks Boris' renegotiation trick with the EU will be to turn the backstop into an NI only backstop and then put that to a referendum in Northern Ireland.

[ShakaHislop]

I'm not sure if this was his own idea, or if he has an inside source on Team Boris, but Michael Portillo thinks Boris' renegotiation trick with the EU will be to turn the backstop into an NI only backstop and then put that to a referendum in Northern Ireland.

He'd piss off not only the DUP by doing that, but also the Scottish Tories because it's potentially splitting up the union via another referendum which is what they spend their time saying the SNP is bad for pursuing.

[killer-heels]

I'm not sure if this was his own idea, or if he has an inside source on Team Boris, but Michael Portillo thinks Boris' renegotiation trick with the EU will be to turn the backstop into an NI only backstop and then put that to a referendum in Northern Ireland.

The ERG would have that. They couldnt give a shit about NI and the DUP.

[Elmo!]

He'd piss off not only the DUP by doing that, but also the Scottish Tories because it's potentially splitting up the union via another referendum which is what they spend their time saying the SNP is bad for pursuing.

Also set's the precedent that a part of the UK can stay in the SM & CU. If NI can do it, why not Scotland?

[TepidT2O]

Also set's the precedent that a part of the UK can stay in the SM & CU. If NI can do it, why not Scotland?

Or London..

[oldfordie]

I'm not sure if this was his own idea, or if he has an inside source on Team Boris, but Michael Portillo thinks Boris' renegotiation trick with the EU will be to turn the backstop into an NI only backstop and then put that to a referendum in Northern Ireland.

As said DUP and SNP hit the roof. not to mention how this could possibly work in practical terms, tariffs between NI and rest of UK, NI in UK but not it's trade agreements with the rest of the world but the biggest short term flaw and contradiction to his arguments is how can he possibly get this whole process completed by the end of October. I thought he promised Family guy there would be no extension under any circumstances.

[PaulF]

As said DUP and SNP hit the roof. not to mention how this could possibly work in practical terms, tariffs between NI and rest of UK, NI in UK but not it's trade agreements with the rest of the world but the biggest short term flaw and contradiction to his arguments is how can he possibly get this whole process completed by the end of October. I thought he promised Family guy there would be no extension under any circumstances.

um I don't think anyone believes anything Boris says or promises. More so than other politicians.

[oldfordie]

um I don't think anyone believes anything Boris says or promises. More so than other politicians.

He's not that popular with the Tory MPs. I know someone said theres at least 100 Tory MPs who are voting ,anyone but Boris, he's a liability as well but they must look at him as the only PM capable of wining back Tory voters so they can keep their seats.

[Mutton Geoff]

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/news/104598/tory-grandee-ken-clarke-vows-bring-down
Tory grandee Ken Clarke has promised to vote to bring down any “idiot” future Tory prime minister if they attempt to force a no-deal Brexit through Parliament.

A voice in the wilderness but is there enough within the House to do this?

[oldfordie]

Says it all really.

 
@CarolineLucas
Follow Follow @CarolineLucas

Watching #C4Debate, hearing so many pledges about righting wrongs and so many promises about tackling injustice, makes me wish that these men had been in government so they could have had a chance to implement them

Oh, wait

[filopastry]

I'm not sure if this was his own idea, or if he has an inside source on Team Boris, but Michael Portillo thinks Boris' renegotiation trick with the EU will be to turn the backstop into an NI only backstop and then put that to a referendum in Northern Ireland.

If that won a referendum in NI (which it likely would) then the DUP pulls its support for the government altogether. I doubt they would even wait that long, probably pull it as soon as that approach passed parliament.

How much do the Tories fancy another GE?

[ShakaHislop]

Labour must argue strongly for Remain, says Tom Watson

Labour's deputy leader Tom Watson has urged his party to "strongly" make the case for the UK staying in the EU.

In a speech on London, he reiterated his push for another referendum to break the Brexit deadlock - saying Labour members "hearts are Remain".

His party had been "afraid to tell the truth" about the EU, he suggested.

Leader Jeremy Corbyn has so far resisted calls to fully back another public vote, saying the party would support it in certain circumstances.

That nuance was blamed for Labour's performance at the European elections.

The party came third behind The Brexit Party and the Liberal Democrats, with its share of the vote falling to 14%.

Afterwards, several senior figures criticised a lack of clarity on Brexit.

Shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry said the results boosted the case for another referendum - an outcome Mr Corbyn has said is "some way off".

Labour MPs remain split, with those representing Leave areas warning against backing a further public vote.

Last week, MPs expressed their frustration at a heated meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party, with some expressing concern that it had become "normalised" for Labour voters to back other parties over Brexit.

The shadow cabinet was due to meet on Monday to discuss Brexit, but the meeting has been postponed.

In a speech to the Centre for European Reform, Mr Watson - who has repeatedly put pressure on Mr Corbyn to back a further referendum - said there was still time to reverse the Brexit vote.

He called for a one-off meeting or ballot of members to be held to vote on a shift in policy - warning Labour could not afford to wait until its party conference in late September.

"Pro-European is who we are and who we have always been. Our members are Remain. Our values are Remain. Our hearts are Remain," he said.

"The only way to break the political deadlock is to bring the public back into this decision and we must argue strongly to remain.

"Our future doesn't need to be Brexit. We can change our future. We can put Britain back at the heart of Europe again.

"We can be proud of leading the fight for a fairer and stronger future, together. But we can only achieve this future if Labour fights for it and champions it. It's time we do that."

As he gave his speech, Labour chairman Ian Lavery - who is against another referendum - tweeted that "ignoring Leave voters" was not a sensible move.

Conversely, though, Mr Watson has received support from a number of colleagues, including Jess Phillips and Anna Turley.

Another MP, Siobhain McDonagh, tweeted: "I have had my differences with Tom Watson over the years but this video is brilliant and his argument is bang on! So many Labour members will be cheering him on!"

BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg says plenty of Labour MPs are worried because they represent constituencies with Leave voters, but there is no question the balance in the party is on the other side.

"There are plenty of senior people - including those absolutely loyal to Jeremy Corbyn - who think it is time for the leadership to make a clearer statement arguing for another referendum and for Britain to stay in EU," she says.

"Some of those think it is vital to do before the summer and they predict we may end up with an election in the autumn with the Tories arguing for Leave and Labour arguing for Remain."

However, Mr Watson said all strands of opinion within the party are entitled to be heard.

He also argued that the "core" EU values of internationalism, solidarity and freedom are also the values of Labour.

"Some people have begun to equate support for Europe with class identity - I don't think that's right or helpful," he said.

"The majority of Labour people are supportive of Europe and that support is not dictated by social class."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48658683

BIB - I think that's the first time I've seen the BBC accurately describe Labour 's "split" on Brexit. More of the same please.

Love that Watson's not playing along with the "working class = Brexit" narrative too.

[The Gulleysucker]

Resulting in howls of outrage and shouts of disloyalty and cries for deselection from the usual predictable nutjob quarters.

They're all quite mad.

Still, it will probably quieten the likely whatsapp coordinated outrage over the (unlikely possibility) of a war with Iran as they now switch over to attacking Watson, again.

[Skeeve]

As he gave his speech, Labour chairman Ian Lavery - who is against another referendum - tweeted that "ignoring Leave voters" was not a sensible move.

Besides the obvious point that they have happily ignored the millions of remain voters for the last few years (blindly assuming they'd stay with labour), the simple fact of the matter is that the majority of leave voters are not going to being voting labour regardless of how much their leadership might pander to them and you can see the dishonesty when they always refer back to that figure from the referendum as it is clearly impossible for that number to have reduced since then at all. 

[Ghost Town]

I've had my differences with Tom Watson over the years but he did come across quite well there. If only Dear Leader could take a similar approach.

As for Ian Lavatory, loud guffaws at his assumption that Leave voters in the North will ever vote Labour while they have Frottage and co to stoke their rage and fantasies. It's cringeworthy to see Labour trying so desperately to flash their knickers and flutter their eyelashes at, and pander to, a constituency of Leavers who think the party is just a bunch of elitist metropolitan meffs that can get fucked.

And its despicable that they are ignoring so many of their erstwhile loyal supporters in order to try and seduce a constituency that hates them and laughs at them. There's a definite 80s John Hughes movie in this.

[Zeb]

Anyone know if Ivan Rogers (our former ambassador to the EU for those who can't place the name, resigned/pushed out for telling awkward truths to May and co.) has given a speech available online or was he just talking to the Guardian?

Rogers said Johnson’s stance, and the inevitable EU rebuff to a time-limit on the Irish backstop or an alternative arrangement, suggested many were underplaying the risk of Britain crashing out.

There is a widespread perception in EU capitals that a general election is “coming really rather soon – and much sooner than anyone is prepared or incentivised to admit”, Rogers said of Johnson’s likely response to parliament seeking to block a no-deal Brexit.

“This is why serious players in Brussels and certain capitals have concluded, as have I, that we are now rather likely to be headed for a breakdown to ‘no deal’,” he said in his latest speech on Brexit.

“We all know this is a great country. Sadly, it’s one currently very poorly led by a political elite, some masquerading as non-elite, which has great difficulties discerning and telling the truth. I am discouraged by just how badly Brexit has been handled to date, and currently pessimistic that this is going to get any better any time soon.”

[ShakaHislop]

Anyone know if Ivan Rogers (our former ambassador to the EU for those who can't place the name, resigned/pushed out for telling awkward truths to May and co.) has given a speech or was he just talking to the Guardian?

It was a speech this morning, I think.

Sir Ivan Rogers delivered an excellent keynote speech this morning on #Brexit, #ToryLeadership and the future of the @cityoflondon at our conference with @ComPeerLimited.

https://xcancel.com/syedmahmood/status/1140910071049793536

http://compeer.co.uk/event/wealth-management-yearly-review-2019/

[Red-Soldier]

I've seen calls to have a "second deputy leader's position." 

[Zeb]

It was a speech this morning, I think.

https://xcancel.com/syedmahmood/status/1140910071049793536

http://compeer.co.uk/event/wealth-management-yearly-review-2019/

Ta Shaka. Will poke them for a transcript. He sounded pretty thoroughly downbeat.

[Circa1892]

I've seen calls to have a "second deputy leader's position." 

They had that last year. They changed their minds when Watson backed it and they realised it'd give someone like Thornberry/Rayner a good platform so they sacked it off at the last minute.

The reason they hate Watson quite so much is that he's so much more canny and clever an operator than Milne and co.

[PaulF]

Have the Lib Dems got a new leader yet? If this goes to a GE I can see both Tories and Labour losing seats to the only remain party. I doubt they'll be massive but they may just hold the balance of power.

[filopastry]

Have the Lib Dems got a new leader yet? If this goes to a GE I can see both Tories and Labour losing seats to the only remain party. I doubt they'll be massive but they may just hold the balance of power.

No, I think the new leader takes over on 23rd July.

I see Swinson is floating an electoral pact between the Remain parties

[filopastry]

Sorry for posting this on both the Brexit and Politics thread as I think it is relevant to both.


Thought this was interesting (and pretty unsurprising) from yougov.

[oldfordie]

Another dickhead celebratory gammon who didn't have a clue what Brexit meant..

The Who’s Roger Daltrey says Brexit won’t affect British musicians: “As if we didn’t tour Europe before the f****** EU”
Read more at https://www.nme.com/news/music/the-whos-roger-daltry-says-brexit-wont-affect-british-musicians-as-if-we-didnt-tour-europe-before-the-f-eu-2462954#PZuLDqXMuBmZKrRd.99


“By Jason Douglas
June 17, 2019 7:30 am ET
LONDON—For the U.K.’s legions of musicians, from jobbing French horn players to stars of opera and the indie scene, a no-deal Brexit hits a bum note.

An abrupt and messy break between the U.K. and the European Union is back on the cards now that hard-core Brexit fans are jostling to succeed Theresa May as prime minister. Such a split, where Britain leaves without settling legal ties to the bloc, would create new obstacles for British artists wishing to perform in the EU.

The uncertainty is playing havoc with scheduling gigs that are usually booked months in advance, since promoters can’t be sure British acts will be able to turn up.

Already, touring musicians are encountering problems they fret will get only worse if the U.K. exits the EU without a deal Oct. 31, the latest deadline for the U.K. to ratify a negotiated withdrawal settlement. Without Parliament’s approval, Britain must either seek more time to solder together an agreement or plunge out of the EU immediately.

Lute player Lynda Sayce used to perform once or twice a week in the EU with two U.K.-based ensembles. Now, almost three years after Britons voted to leave the EU in a referendum, she has just three such bookings for the whole of 2019.

“There’s been a noticeable dropping off in the number of dates that the British groups are offered on the continent,” Ms. Sayce said.

She isn’t alone. Almost two-thirds of respondents to a May survey by the U.K.’s Incorporated Society of Musicians said they have had difficulties securing European bookings since the Brexit referendum in 2016, with organizers citing Brexit uncertainty as the reason. One in 10 said they have had bookings canceled.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/brexit-strikes-a-bum-note-for-u-k-artists-as-eu-gigs-dry-up-11560771000

[Ghost Town]

No, I think the new leader takes over on 23rd July.

I see Swinson is floating an electoral pact between the Remain parties

I read that as Swanson

[redmark]

The ERG would have that. They couldnt give a shit about NI and the DUP.

The ERG would, but potentially it would lose as many 'unionist' Tories as it would gain, and make it much easier for Labour to continue to oppose.

[ShakaHislop]

No, I think the new leader takes over on 23rd July.

I see Swinson is floating an electoral pact between the Remain parties

I doubt that the Greens would go for that, as one of their co-leaders Sian Berry had another go at the Lib Dems at a recent Green Party conference.

[filopastry]

I doubt that the Greens would go for that, as one of their co-leaders Sian Berry had another go at the Lib Dems at a recent Green Party conference.

It wouldn't surprise me, but it does no harm for the LibDems to be seen to be trying to build broader alliances on an issue like this, it is some thing the more hardcore remainers will like to see, even if nothing comes of it.

I'm not sure running in every seat in the country is likely to lead to a massive upsurge in seats for the Greens either

[Red-Soldier]

No, I think the new leader takes over on 23rd July.

I see Swinson is floating an electoral pact between the Remain parties

Apparently, her voting record is not the best.

My local Lib Dem is supporting Ed Davey.

[filopastry]

I'm guessing no changes coming in Labour's position anyway, based on their briefing paper to the shadow cabinet.

[Zeb]

I'm guessing no changes coming in Labour's position anyway, based on their briefing paper to the shadow cabinet.

Wonder whether there's ever going to be a point where Lavery and co. understand that not everyone in a Labour constituency votes Labour.

[The Gulleysucker]

Wonder whether there's ever going to be a point where Lavery and co. understand that not everyone in a Labour constituency votes Labour.

Probably not until the day following the next election.

[ScandinavianPete]

I'm guessing no changes coming in Labour's position anyway, based on their briefing paper to the shadow cabinet.

There are not enough votes to be gained by not stepping on the nail.

[ShakaHislop]

All those words to defend a Brexit stance that has already lost one GE, councillors in multiple local elections and MEPs.

Kipper-chasing losers.

[stoa]

Have they used a marker on a computer-screen there?

[Zeb]

Probably not until the day following the next election.

Dollars to doughnuts Lavery will nail it for the handful of seats where there is a very significant issue should Labour shift position.

--

If anyone's after some analysis of where whoever wrote that briefing paper keeps going wrong, Rob Ford (Manchester) has some here: https://xcancel.com/robfordmancs/status/1141330602098143232

Also see rest of his timeline this afternoon for the evidence of complexity around this. There's a case beyond the polling numbers etc. which could be made. But as Labour's sole concern seems to be triangulation for the best possible electoral effect then I'm not particularly arsed about hearing it right now.

[ShakaHislop]

Salt-of-the-earth Lavery has got himself into a bit of bother about a Tweet he's made about Labour's policy, and his subsequent claim that his account had been hacked.

Earlier this morning a tweet was sent from this account in reply to @SamCoatesSky , this was not authorised by myself or anyone on my team. Appropriate security updates have been made and I can assure any Journalists etc. that it was not a tweet I authorised re Brexit position.

Confirmed by Twitter. Someone else logged in to my account, not me or any of my staff.

https://xcancel.com/IanLaveryMP/status/1141315106216845314

People are asking why he only received the email notifying him of a login at 13:08, when the Tweet was sent nearly an hour earlier at 12:14pm.

Team Lavery vehemently deny Ian Lavery sent the tweet from Ian Lavery’s account. Investigation launched. Password changed. “Ian’s a stickler for spelling and wouldn’t have got there/their wrong” said a source.

https://xcancel.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1141318487744417793

#laveryhacked Ian Lavery is a sticker for spelling, we are told. Although some might point to a pattern of behaviour around the “there”/“their” issue... 😐 (Also see @estwebber who beat me to it on this point)

https://xcancel.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1141324434298560512