Topic: The Alternative Premier League Table 2015-16

[rickardinho1]

I took a bored stab at Leicester, how badly did I mess up?

PREM   Leicester City   4   2   Sunderland     0 (0)
PREM   West Ham Un   1   2   Leicester City    +2 (+2)
PREM   Leicester City   1   1   Tottenham    0 (-2)
PREM   Bournemouth   1   1   Leicester City    -2 (-2)
PREM   Leicester City   3   2   Aston Villa    -2 (0)
PREM   Stoke City      2   2   Leicester City   -2 (0)
PREM   Leicester City   2   5   Arsenal      -5 (-3)
PREM   Norwich City   1   2   Leicester City   -5 (0)
PREM   Southampton   2   2   Leicester City    -5 (0)
PREM   Leicester City   1   0   Crystal Palace   -5 (0)
PREM   West Bromwich   2   3   Leicester City    -5 (0)
PREM   Leicester City   2   1   Watford      -5 (0)
PREM   Newcastle Un   0   3   Leicester City    -5 (0)
PREM   Leicester City   1   1   Manchester Un   -7 (-2)

Nice, thanks for putting this together.

Interesting that they've played away against West Ham, Stoke, Southampton, and West Brom already. That means that apart from Swansea next week and Palace their only other chances to gain ground in the APLT will be to win away against the (likely) top 7 - against whom they are already -7 against in 3 home games (Spurs, Arsenal, United).

They've done really well to play to par in so many games so far, but every team suffers dips in form over the season, and their remaining fixtures will make it hard for them to make up ground when they do.

[rickardinho1]

I just realized that had we won the Palace game, we would have been in a League winning form since Klopp came in. Not too shabby!

Every team has results they wish they could have back.

What's nice to see is that in the 8 games since matchday 6 we're actually only -1 which is near enough title winning form. In the same time period United and Arsenal are both -3, Spurs are -4, City are -6, and Chelsea are -10.

[Schmidt]

Nice, thanks for putting this together.

Interesting that they've played away against West Ham, Stoke, Southampton, and West Brom already. That means that apart from Swansea next week and Palace their only other chances to gain ground in the APLT will be to win away against the (likely) top 7 - against whom they are already -7 against in 3 home games (Spurs, Arsenal, United).

They've done really well to play to par in so many games so far, but every team suffers dips in form over the season, and their remaining fixtures will make it hard for them to make up ground when they do.

Is away to West Brom supposed to be a par 1? I had it as a par 3.

edit: Fixed it now, should've read the OP first.

edit: Unfixed it, cheers Deo.

PREM   Leicester City   4   2   Sunderland     0 (0)
PREM   West Ham Un   1   2   Leicester City    +2 (+2)
PREM   Leicester City   1   1   Tottenham    0 (-2)
PREM   Bournemouth   1   1   Leicester City    -2 (-2)
PREM   Leicester City   3   2   Aston Villa    -2 (0)
PREM   Stoke City      2   2   Leicester City   -2 (0)
PREM   Leicester City   2   5   Arsenal      -5 (-3)
PREM   Norwich City   1   2   Leicester City   -5 (0)
PREM   Southampton   2   2   Leicester City    -5 (0)
PREM   Leicester City   1   0   Crystal Palace   -5 (0)
PREM   West Bromwich   2   3   Leicester City    -5 (0)
PREM   Leicester City   2   1   Watford      -5 (0)
PREM   Newcastle Un   0   3   Leicester City    -5 (0)
PREM   Leicester City   1   1   Manchester Un   -7 (-2)

[Deo]

Snip!

Not for Leicester! Since they're not a top 12 team themselves, West Brom (13th last season) doesn't count. You should probably unfix it. :p

[Zeb]

December, as it ever was, the month when teams get sorted for where their true quality is. We've got a fair run of games where, in APLT terms and barring West Ham, we can only drop points. Exciting though that there's everything to play for - hopefully a ride to enjoy.

[Schmidt]

Not for Leicester! Since they're not a top 12 team themselves, West Brom (13th last season) doesn't count. You should probably unfix it. :p

Haha, balls. Okay I've fixed my own posts again, could you remove the list from your quote so the incorrect version is gone forever?

[kcbworth]

Just noticed we're one of only 2 teams in the entire league to have won the last 2 games (Sunderland is the other)

[Deo]

Haha, balls. Okay I've fixed my own posts again, could you remove the list from your quote so the incorrect version is gone forever?

Sure.

[Crimson_Tank]

Par three win, excellent, bring on Newcastle!

[justsean]

Would I be right in saying we've got very little opportunity to make up any ground now ?

The par 1's are top 10 in the league away right? We've played a large number of them...

[MerseysideBrum]

Would I be right in saying we've got very little opportunity to make up any ground now ?

The par 1's are top 10 in the league away right? We've played a large number of them...

True but you could also say everyone else has (theoretically) harder games that they must pick up points in

[rickardinho1]

Would I be right in saying we've got very little opportunity to make up any ground now ?

The par 1's are top 10 in the league away right? We've played a large number of them...

Not really. While our next run has few par 1's, we've still got all the easiest par 1's to come (Palace, Swansea, West Brom, West Ham) while our rivals will have tougher par 1's left.

Par 1's are par 1's for a reason too, because they're the hardest to win, so having a lot of them left doesn't mean you're likely to climb the APLT, just that you could.

[Levitz]

Until Prof does his, here's my half-arsed attempt...

 

This made me laugh so much. Can you do it every week?

[Levitz]

Well if we continue in title winning form under him in the next 24 games then we will have a good chance of winning it

 

I love RAWK

[Reds Flag]

Until Prof does his, here's my half-arsed attempt...

here is mine

When it's good round here, it's very very good...

[Nessy76]

Would I be right in saying we've got very little opportunity to make up any ground now ?

The par 1's are top 10 in the league away right? We've played a large number of them...

Yes, but all that really means is that we're unlikely to finish on more than 85 points.

Par 1s are teams that finished in the top 13 last season.

[Deo]

This made me laugh so much. Can you do it every week?

Hah, sure, provided Prof doesn't beat me to it.

Yes, but all that really means is that we're unlikely to finish on more than 85 points.

Par 1s are teams that finished in the top 13 last season.

Well, it is my opinion that 85 will practically guarantee you the title. Sadly, there's no way we're gonna achieve that, not with they way we've been playing vs the lesser sides.

[farawayred]

A couple of years back I started looking statistically at the point distribution of the table at the end of the season and I thought that there was a decent possibility to describe the strength of the fight for 1st or 4rth through parameters beyond the "normal" ones. One can define a parameter akin to skewedness, which was a good one. From what I remember, some years the top teams are really strong and the total tally of the league winner was big, but the mid table was weak. Other examples were with a strong league, which was far less skewed and (IIRC) even 80 points can win the league. Funnily enough, I don't remember which year it was, there was the opposite skewedness, where teams were fighting which one wants to be more relegated than the other. I though that also resulted in high points for the winner. Maybe one day I will resurrect that effort, but the jest is in what I just described, if someone wants to give it a crack.

[Mr_Shane]

Well if we continue in title winning form under him in the next 24 games then we will have a good chance of winning it

We have the players who have previously put together 2 eleven game runs that title winners manage to pull off. Henderson. Coutinho, Sakho, Srktel, Allen, Lucas, Mignolet...These players have put together two such runs in two seasons, and Milner is a title winner. If they believe in themselves, they can put another run together this season.

[sinceIwassix]

Until Prof does his, here's my half-arsed attempt...

ha ha - and I thought I was desperate for an updated table. apparently we did well this week; 

Its like, when you do well in a test test and we will be bugging the prof "when you gonna give the papers back?". but when you don't do well, you pretend it never happened!

[DanA]

Tough part of the draw in terms of the APT but no reason why we can't win 10 of our next 13 games.

[riismeister]

Tough part of the draw in terms of the APT but no reason why we can't win 10 of our next 13 games.

Certainly. In those 13 games we've got four games against opposition currently above us on the actual  table; Arsenal and Man Utd at home, and Leicester home and away. All of those four games looks winnable to me, and we're clear favorites in the two against Leicester. The 9 remaining games are easier on paper and all are winnable. I won't be surprised if we get 30+ points from those 13 games.

[Banquo's Ghost]

are they?  Seems harsh...
As I say, I've never fully understood this

The beauty of the APLT is that it is simple. People over-complicate things because they want it to be predictive during the season.

It's a measure of what needs to be done to win the title. Win all your home games, and beat the bottom half teams on their own patch. That's why losing a home game is such a brutal hit to your chances.

The champions have almost always done this: Fortress Anfield in our glory days, the Tramp's title winning sides - impregnable at home, kill off the smaller teams, then anytime you beat a top team at their place just carves another letter onto the league trophy for you.

Simples. 

[Nessy76]

Hah, sure, provided Prof doesn't beat me to it.

Well, it is my opinion that 85 will practically guarantee you the title. Sadly, there's no way we're gonna achieve that, not with they way we've been playing vs the lesser sides.

Very much taking this season one game at a time. There's no pressure on us to go and win the league. See where we are at the start of March.

[KurtVerbose]

The beauty of the APLT is that it is simple. People over-complicate things because they want it to be predictive during the season.

It's a measure of what needs to be done to win the title. Win all your home games, and beat the bottom half teams on their own patch. That's why losing a home game is such a brutal hit to your chances.

The champions have almost always done this: Fortress Anfield in our glory days, the Tramp's title winning sides - impregnable at home, kill off the smaller teams, then anytime you beat a top team at their place just carves another letter onto the league trophy for you.

Simples. 

I love the APLT and wouldn't want it changed, but essentially you're benchmarking against last season's teams. An away win against against last season's bottom half team is a par 3 that you really must win, yet this season one of those teams (Leicester) has really raised their game and are second in the league. It's a really tough match.

Likewise a top team has turned to sh*t and a visit to their stadium is a bit of a holiday. No guessing which.

(**Cough** Chelsea).

Some of it evens out, and the table is an excellent guide to early season form.

[Defendant]

APLT Unicorn updated to reflect results:

[Zeb]

[RooiBefok]

Liverpool Current & Projected Form

[aliver]

Liverpool Current & Projected Form

considering the way how strangely the rest of the league behaves, I'd expect 81-85 points to be enough to win the title this year...

looking at City, with their current & projected form they're on to finish with 79 points after 38 games.

[campioni]

The last time the league leaders had less than 30 points after 14 games was the 2010/11 season with Chelsea and United on 28 points.

That season United won the league with 80 points, Chelsea and City finished second and third on 71 points. Arsenal fourth with 68.

[Nessy76]

I love the APLT and wouldn't want it changed, but essentially you're benchmarking against last season's teams. An away win against against last season's bottom half team is a par 3 that you really must win, yet this season one of those teams (Leicester) has really raised their game and are second in the league. It's a really tough match.

Likewise a top team has turned to sh*t and a visit to their stadium is a bit of a holiday. No guessing which.

(**Cough** Chelsea).

Some of it evens out, and the table is an excellent guide to early season form.

It's not bottom half teams, it's the three promoted sides and the lowest four surviving teams in the league last season. Leicester finished 14th last season, if they'd been 13th they would be a par 1. The others are Newcastle (currently 19th) Sunderland (currently 17th) and Villa (currently 20th)

As you say, Chelsea are 14th at the moment, which would make them a Par 3 visit, but they won't be there at the end of the season.

Newly promoted sides are always Par 3. They rarely finish in the top 13 at first attempt, either.

The previous year saw Newcastle in 10th and West Brom 17th, otherwise the Par 1 sides were the same.

You very rarely see more than a couple of sides change places in or out of Par 3 status.

14/15: Leicester, Newcastle, Sunderland, Villa


13/14: Sunderland, Villa, Hull*, West Brom
12/13: Southampton, Villa, Newcastle, Sunderland
11/12: Stoke, Wigan*, Villa, QPR*
10/11: Bolton*, Blackburn*, Wigan, Wolves*

Teams in bold finished 13th or above the following season. (4 out of 16)
Teams marked with * were relegated the following season. (6 out of 16)

So it's actually more likely that Par 3 sides will get worse than that they will get better.

It isn't perfect, but the model is actually very robust when measured against reality, all it means is that typically one, or at worst two, of the Par 3 games should be Par 1s, but there is always a corresponding Par 3 game which "should" be Par 1, so it balances out.

Of the 3 APLT teams to visit Leicester so far, Spurs and Man Utd have drawn and Arsenal have won. It's a tough Par 3, no question, but I'd still expect a side with realistic title aspirations to go there looking for a win.

[Prof]

Great post that Nessy, thanks

[drmick]

Liverpool Current & Projected Form

Campioni said it, nowhere near 90 points will be needed to win it this year, and possibly mid-late 60s to get top 4.

[DanA]

Liverpool Current & Projected Form

That projection doesn't do Klopp justice, away games to Tottenham, Southampton, Chelsea, Man City along with home games to Swansea and Crystal Palace. That was a really tough run of games and for Klopp to get 1.86 points per game with injuries, while adapting to English football and getting the squad playing the way he wants is nothing short of remarkable.

[KurtVerbose]

It isn't perfect, but the model is actually very robust when measured against reality, all it means is that typically one, or at worst two, of the Par 3 games should be Par 1s, but there is always a corresponding Par 3 game which "should" be Par 1, so it balances out.

I think that's what I wrote?

[Nessy76]

I think that's what I wrote?

Do you?

[Brian Blessed]

Just out boredom, I took a look at all our games this season, and treated them as league games, no matetr what the competition, ie 3 points for a win, 1 for a draw. Probably an exercise in futility, but as we had 11 games under Rogers and now have 11 under Klopp, I thought why not.

With Rogers is was 15 points from 11 games. 1.36 per game.

With Klopp it's 23 points from 11 games. 2.09 per game.

I don't know that it means much, but it's nice to see.

[Fluke]

Do you?

I do too, to be fair.

[xRedmanLFCx]

Prof is really one of those "You only appreciate him when he is gone" kinda fellas!  Where is he? 

[steveeastend]

Just out boredom, I took a look at all our games this season, and treated them as league games, no matetr what the competition, ie 3 points for a win, 1 for a draw. Probably an exercise in futility, but as we had 11 games under Rogers and now have 11 under Klopp, I thought why not.

With Rogers is was 15 points from 11 games. 1.36 per game.

With Klopp it's 23 points from 11 games. 2.09 per game.

I don't know that it means much, but it's nice to see.

It means Klopp is a better manager.