Topic: It's just a battle for the order of the first 4 spots now between 5 teams...

[Mashy-rawr!nooo]

And this is why I dislike this part of the season.  Every win makes us feel a step closer yet we're still a way to go.

Consistency is what makes top four teams.  We've done that by and large this season. 

[Tonyh]

Simple now, 4th is ours unless we fuck up, 3rd and above is up to us consistently winning our games!

[LFC when it suits]

Think people can stop thinking about Spurs, Everton and Utd and look towards City, Chelsea and Arsenal now. There is no reason with our fixture why we shouldn't gain ground on all of those over the next few weeks. We will win the league this season.

[Hij]

We're nearer to 1st than 5th.

[ebbenebs]

11 points is a lot, but we might lose to Southampton, United, City, Chelsea and Tottenham. Thats 15 points dropped. I wont celebrate until its over in may.

[spider-neil]

11 points is a lot, but we might lose to Southampton, United, City, Chelsea and Tottenham. Thats 15 points dropped. I wont celebrate until its over in may.

That's how I see it as well. It's not done till it's done.

[farawayred]

It's not mathematically impossible, and I suppose stranger things have happened (3-0 down at half time in European cup finals and coming back to win and stuff like that)... but it would take a monumental collapse from us, and a huge improvement in performances and results from Spurs/United for them to break into the top 4 this season now. Of course complacency is never good, but if we want to be fighting with Europe's elite again, we have to claim back a bit of confidence and swagger and look up the table, not down.

And it's not only the points, the psychological factor is in our favor after opening that gap. We know now that we can afford a bit of a slip and still land a CL spot. This actually takes pressure off of the team and makes a fuckup even less likely.

[Tony19:6]

After the weekends results I think its fair to start looking up rather than down.

[Hij]

11 points is a lot, but we might lose to Southampton, United, City, Chelsea and Tottenham. Thats 15 points dropped. I wont celebrate until its over in may.

Of course no-one should be celebrating yet- would be fool hardy to do so.

[Samie]

11 points is a lot, but we might lose to Southampton, United, City, Chelsea and Tottenham. Thats 15 points dropped. I wont celebrate until its over in may.

or we'll beat every one of them.  that's 15 gained.

[Tom18]

The dreamer inside me is beginning to start looking up realistically now. I think I shared the sentiments of many other posters of having other teams hauling us in, with Spurs eventually catching us up and it going right to the wire, Spurs losing today though gives us a 6 point gap which I think is too much considering how many games are left in the season, and others having commitments in Europe.

I just think it is fantastic how far we have come under Brendan so quickly, really is testament to him and the players.

Just have to give an occasional glance over our shoulder to make sure they stay where they are supposed to.

[LFC when it suits]

if Spurs or Utd finish 4th, it will be ahead of Arsenal. Not us.

In fact, Utd are more likely to win the CL than finish 4th.

[Alan_X]

If West Ham can win 4 in row then it it is quite possible United can also, I agree they look very poor under Moyes but stranger things have happened in football.

United need to win four more than us in the last eleven games, not four in a row. If we lose four between now and the end of the season (we've lost 5 in the first 27) and win the rest they would need to win eleven in a row, not four.

We're averaging 2 points a game which would give us 78 points (56 + 22). If United win every game they would be on the same number of points (45 + 33) but would have to improve their goal difference by +23.

Of course it's possible but it would need a huge turnaround in form by both sides.

[Mali1]

We should aim for 3rd in case one of them win CL

[farawayred]

We should aim for 3rd in case one of them win CL

And / or to avoid big teams in play-offs.

[Liverbird27]

I'm glad we have that incentive of being close to top spot, meaning that there's no sense of complacency creeping in and that just makes it even harder for the likes of Spurs. Our mindset is not to protect our current position in the top 4, but instead we're trying to push to close the gap at the top, and that could increase the gap between 4th and 5th (sort of like how the gap between us and Utd/Everton has formed)....  we're the better side and that may tell if we have the incentive to keep performing to our best.

And like mentioned before, we are closer to 1st than 5th..... a fantastic position to be in with 11 games left. Who'd have thought that at the beginning of the season?

[RK7]

United need us to lose 4 more games than them over the next 11.

It would be the strangest thing yet.

Maybe but still very possible, I'm just glad it is in our hands to be honest.

I had us down as reaching 70 points tops at the start of the season and 5/6th spot. To still be in touch of those  teams at the top at this stage is fantastic.

[ebbenebs]

Of course no-one should be celebrating yet- would be fool hardy to do so.

or we'll beat every one of them.  that's 15 gained.

Point is, all this talk about looking up the table rather than down, is a bit premature. Of course its good to believe in great things to happen this season, but we have difficult away games coming up, and suddenly the gap could be down to 5 points after the next two rounds.

With 5 points and 9 games to go, who knows what might happen. United lost a 8 point lead to City with 5 games to go. And we still have City, Chelsea and Spurs at Anfield, and might lose all three.

If we can beat Southampton, and avoid loss to United, I will feel a lot more optimistic.

[Tom18]

Agree that the games against Southampton and United will be indicators for if we finish in the top 4,  provided we do the business against the rest.

[PhaseOfPlay]

Point is, all this talk about looking up the table rather than down, is a bit premature. Of course its good to believe in great things to happen this season, but we have difficult away games coming up, and suddenly the gap could be down to 5 points after the next two rounds.

With 5 points and 9 games to go, who knows what might happen. United lost a 8 point lead to City with 5 games to go. And we still have City, Chelsea and Spurs at Anfield, and might lose all three.

If we can beat Southampton, and avoid loss to United, I will feel a lot more optimistic.

It's not premature at all. We're closer to 1st than 5th. We're in the title race

[Mr_Shane]

Don't really need to worry about Spurs, Everton or United until we play them or unless you want to. Its all in our hands now. If we continue winning, there is nothing they can do

[ebbenebs]

It's not premature at all. We're closer to 1st than 5th. We're in the title race

Yes, but after the next two games, we could very well be 10 points off first, and 5 points clear off United at 5th.

Or we could win both and be 14/17 points clear off united.

Dont get me wrong, I'm more optimistic now than ive been for a long time, but we shouldnt count our chickens before they´ve been hatched.

[Samie]

Yes, but after the next two games, we could very well be 10 points off first, and 5 points clear off United at 5th.

Or we could win both and be 14 points clear off united.

Dont get me wrong, I'm more optimistic now than ive been for a long time, but we shouldnt count our chickens before they´ve been hatched.

you're optimistic?. 

Look up not down.

[farawayred]

Yes, but after the next two games, we could very well be 10 points off first, and 5 points clear off United at 5th.

Or we could win both and be 14/17 points clear off united.

Dont get me wrong, I'm more optimistic now than ive been for a long time, but we shouldnt count our chickens before they´ve been hatched.

Yes, but even if we lose both next games, we will still be 4th. That's a sight to behold in itself! And then we have an easier program to reopen the gap before we play City.

[Macedonian Red Reborn]

Yes, but after the next two games, we could very well be 10 points off first, and 5 points clear off United at 5th.

Or we could win both and be 14/17 points clear off united.

Dont get me wrong, I'm more optimistic now than ive been for a long time, but we shouldnt count our chickens before they´ve been hatched.

[ChaChaMooMoo]

[TheDarkKnight]

Might be stating the obvious here but our next two matches will potentially define our season.

Southampton away and Manchester United away.

Southampton lost yesterday at West Ham but that's never an easy place to go. They're a different animal at St Mary's from what I've seen. Just the three defeats there this season - the first was 2-3 to Aston Villa in one of those mad games where one team (Southampton) absolutely battered their opponents but the other team (Villa) took literally every chance they had. Saints got beat 2-3 by Tottenham at home, but I just looked at the Saints team that day and it was down to its bare bones; Gazzaniga was in goal, a big downgrade on Boruc and the left side of their defence, rather than the very impressive duo of Lovren and Shaw was the Championship-standard Hooiveld and Fox. So it's hard to judge them on that. Chelsea won 0-3 there, the only team to win there with real conviction. Either side of that Man City and Arsenal were very fortunate to escape with a point from St Mary's. Oh, and they are our bogey team; we were well beaten there last season, 3-1, and obviously they are the only team to come away from Anfield this season with a victory. I know if you look at the table it might appear that they have nowt to play for and so in theory it shouldn't be as tough but they will likely have their first choice XI back for it and their players and manager will be desperate to complete the double over one of the best teams in the country.

Obviously Man Utd have become a bit of a laughing stock this season especially with some of their results at Old Trafford but they also appear to injury-free at the moment and you can bet your bottom dollar that they raise their game for our visit. Plus they'll see it as a must-win - lose and they know that 4th is absolutely beyond them. So it will be tough, perhaps not to its usual extent but certainly far from the easy game that some may be hoping for.

If we get no points from those two games then the title will be beyond us and one or two teams may be back in the scrap for 4th. One point and the title is probably a foregone conclusion still. Two draws wouldn't be bad by any means, and would certainly give me confidence with regards to our top four ambitions but to maintain any hope of the title we need to win at least one. Win and a draw would be a fantastic return. Win both and I'm in dreamland.

Shame the Sunderland game in between is postponed, but yeah, I'm going to refrain from discussing whether our target should be 1st, 3rd or 4th until after these next two humongous fixtures.

[Hij]

Point is, all this talk about looking up the table rather than down, is a bit premature. Of course its good to believe in great things to happen this season, but we have difficult away games coming up, and suddenly the gap could be down to 5 points after the next two rounds.

With 5 points and 9 games to go, who knows what might happen. United lost a 8 point lead to City with 5 games to go. And we still have City, Chelsea and Spurs at Anfield, and might lose all three.

If we can beat Southampton, and avoid loss to United, I will feel a lot more optimistic.

Ultimately we can look whichever way we want. It's just a league table.

It's a battle of half full and and half empty pint glasses.

I could counter you and say we could win the next 4 in a row.

Nothing wrong with enjoying being in this position though, we might not be counting the chickens, but we're certainly collecting the eggs.

It's the most points we've had at this stage since 87/88 according to another poster- nothing wrong with a bit of confidence. Football would never be any fun if we thought it was all going to come crashing around our ears every week.

In previous seasons it would be US 6 points behind, US hoping to win a few and get back in, now it's THEM.

As a snapshop of the season, we're more than on target. Some of the other clubs have difficult games and need to continue to win, win win, to cut gaps. We're on 2.07 points per games have room to manoeuvre and still get 76 or more points.

[PhaseOfPlay]

Yes, but after the next two games, we could very well be 10 points off first, and 5 points clear off United at 5th.

Or we could win both and be 14/17 points clear off united.

Dont get me wrong, I'm more optimistic now than ive been for a long time, but we shouldnt count our chickens before they´ve been hatched.

Nobody's counting chickens prematurely.

But until the games are actually played, we are 4 points off 1st place.

That's something to be positive about. It's also a position from which we can look confidently into the future. 

[Hij]

We can afford to lose 4 games and still get 76 easier than the rest.

We need 20 points to get 76. - 6 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses - 54% Win Ratio - 1.82 points per game

Tottenham need 26 points to get 76. - 8 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses - 72% Win Ratio - 2.36 points per game.

Man U and Everton need 31 points to get 76. 10 wins, 1 draw, no losses - 90% Win Ratio  - 2.81 points per game.

[robgomm]

I doubt we're quite up to title winning standards yet but we've done brilliantly and as last season we're stronger in the second half of the season. That gives us an outside chance. Certainly it feels like we have a manager who can build us a league win perhaps more than being a cup winning manager.

[Istanbul, 2005]

Still think United have a 20% chance of catching us, considering their fixtures. If they drop points in any of their 4 coming games I can´t see them catch us, they really need to get 12points and if that happens they are probably favorites to get 4th since they got nothing to "lose" and easy fixtures and we´ll have more nervous games like today where we can easily drop points. If I remember correctly in 11/12 United were 8points infront of City when there were like 5-6 games left of the season ? A couple of bad results and everything can happen.

I honestly still see United as a bigger threat to top4 then Spurs.

[ebbenebs]

As I said, I am optimistic. I do believe we will get at least 4th, and I do believe we will beat both Southampton and United away. Im just saying we could face quite a different scenario after the next two rounds. And if the gap down to 5th drops to 1-5 points, the psychological aspect is quite different.

And if we do lose both games, the pressure against city, chelsea and spurs would be massive.

[TepidT2O]

We've been going at 2 points per game all season.

Pretty consistent actually.  I expect this to continue.

[Pistolero]

Might be stating the obvious here but our next two matches will potentially define our season.

Southampton away and Manchester United away.

Southampton lost yesterday at West Ham but that's never an easy place to go. They're a different animal at St Mary's from what I've seen. Just the three defeats there this season - the first was 2-3 to Aston Villa in one of those mad games where one team (Southampton) absolutely battered their opponents but the other team (Villa) took literally every chance they had. Saints got beat 2-3 by Tottenham at home, but I just looked at the Saints team that day and it was down to its bare bones; Gazzaniga was in goal, a big downgrade on Boruc and the left side of their defence, rather than the very impressive duo of Lovren and Shaw was the Championship-standard Hooiveld and Fox. So it's hard to judge them on that. Chelsea won 0-3 there, the only team to win there with real conviction. Either side of that Man City and Arsenal were very fortunate to escape with a point from St Mary's. Oh, and they are our bogey team; we were well beaten there last season, 3-1, and obviously they are the only team to come away from Anfield this season with a victory. I know if you look at the table it might appear that they have nowt to play for and so in theory it shouldn't be as tough but they will likely have their first choice XI back for it and their players and manager will be desperate to complete the double over one of the best teams in the country.

Obviously Man Utd have become a bit of a laughing stock this season especially with some of their results at Old Trafford but they also appear to injury-free at the moment and you can bet your bottom dollar that they raise their game for our visit. Plus they'll see it as a must-win - lose and they know that 4th is absolutely beyond them. So it will be tough, perhaps not to its usual extent but certainly far from the easy game that some may be hoping for.

If we get no points from those two games then the title will be beyond us and one or two teams may be back in the scrap for 4th. One point and the title is probably a foregone conclusion still. Two draws wouldn't be bad by any means, and would certainly give me confidence with regards to our top four ambitions but to maintain any hope of the title we need to win at least one. Win and a draw would be a fantastic return. Win both and I'm in dreamland.

Shame the Sunderland game in between is postponed, but yeah, I'm going to refrain from discussing whether our target should be 1st, 3rd or 4th until after these next two humongous fixtures.

boss post mate....

[Hij]

Still think United have a 20% chance of catching us, considering their fixtures. If they drop points in any of their 4 coming games I can´t see them catch us, they really need to get 12points and if that happens they are probably favorites to get 4th since they got nothing to "lose" and easy fixtures and we´ll have more nervous games like today where we can easily drop points. If I remember correctly in 11/12 United were 8points infront of City when there were like 5-6 games left of the season ? A couple of bad results and everything can happen.

I honestly still see United as a bigger threat to top4 then Spurs.

To get 76 points they'd have to win 10 games, and draw one. They still have Liverpool Home, Man City Home, Everton Away.

They could lose to Man City and draw to one of us and Everton.

[Macedonian Red Reborn]

Still think United have a 20% chance of catching us, considering their fixtures.

They are yet to play us. That makes them 14 points behind us.

[Hij]

They are yet to play us. That makes them 14 points behind us.

No mate, we've already lost that one.

They'll have "nothing to lose", be "injury free" etc. We have no chance. Mark it down as a loss and save yourself the time.

[Son of Stag]

They are yet to play us. That makes them 14 points behind us.

Fuck united, concentrate on catchin chelsea.

[turkish kopite]

No mate, we've already lost that one.

They'll have "nothing to lose", be "injury free" etc. We you have no chance. Mark it down as a loss and save yourself the time.

howard webb detected!