Topic: Results Comparison Thread: 2013-4

[Deo]

Deo, that is a magnificent graphical representation of what this thread is all about (Sorry, JP )!

Can I suggest that gets copied into the opening post as there used to be a similar list in past seasons (I wouldn't worry about updates on a weekly basis as the stuff from JP covers that)

(Granny the eggs are at [im g width=682 height=600]http://i25.photobucket.com/albums/c92/deo89/LFC%2013-14%20Sats/SeasonResults_zps22ac5eb4.jpg[/img] )

Sure, I don't have a problem with that. I update it monthly anyway.

[JP-65]

Updated equivalent match & time comparisons.

It's looking much tighter at the top this season.

[JP-65]

The scoring & defense stats

[ShayGuevara]

Updated equivalent match & time comparisons.

It's looking much tighter at the top this season.

Crazy to think Arsenal are down points on the same fixtures last year, same with Spurs doing better than last year. The rest look's about right. Going to be an interesting season that's for sure it's between City and Chelsea for me, you could add either ourselves or Arsenal to that if we're still up there come the new year. United and Spurs have no chance unless they drastically improve.

[JP-65]

Crazy to think Arsenal are down points on the same fixtures last year, same with Spurs doing better than last year. The rest look's about right. Going to be an interesting season that's for sure it's between City and Chelsea for me, you could add either ourselves or Arsenal to that if we're still up there come the new year. United and Spurs have no chance unless they drastically improve.

I'll get around to doing my "season-to-go" summaries soon, and I'll say right now that United are out of it, without doing the work

[The Wooly Ginger]

Am I interpreting this correctly? Arsenal have started with 9 fixtures which they won last year?

[Deo]

Am I interpreting this correctly? Arsenal have started with 9 fixtures which they won last year?

Yes, but obviously they have played those fixtures at different times last season.

[JP-65]

Am I interpreting this correctly? Arsenal have started with 9 fixtures which they won last year?

That is correct.

[The Wooly Ginger]

That's crazy. I wonder if that's the luckiest set of fixtures a team has ever had in the premiership.

[Anthony]

Well, next Saturday is the first game this season that they didn't win last season (2-2 Draw)

[DyingAtheist]

So except Southampton, in terms of both time and equivalent match, we've made the most improvement?
Hopefully we can do over Arsenal, really will make all the difference in the world.

[zabadoh]

So except Southampton, in terms of both time and equivalent match, we've made the most improvement?

It is an encouraging sign, but it should be pointed out that a 5 point improvement over 114 possible points is only slightly larger than a statistical blip.  One or two bad results and we'll be back to where we were last season. 

Hopefully we can do over Arsenal, really will make all the difference in the world.

A win wouldn't hurt.   

It helps us a bit that Arsenal have a tough match in the League Cup against Chelsea tomorrow Tuesday.
Then again, Arsenal get to play both that and Saturday's match against us at home, so it's a best possible scenario for them.

Last season, we drew 2-2 at the Emirates, so a win would be +2 on the results comparison and on the APLT too.

Another draw for us would be a decent result to be honest.

[sminp]

Comparing this season's results with last season's, so far:



*Wigan = Cardiff City
*Reading = Hull City
*QPR = Crystal Palace

There are 2 mistakes in their although the end points result is the same. In the "Pts GWb" column you have us as -2 in week 7 and +2 in week 8, this should be the other way around. Great table though mate, keep posting the updated version if you don't mind.

[Bobinhood]

Well, next Saturday is the first game this season that they didn't win last season (2-2 Draw) that they are going to be completely, utterly and decisively humiliated, except of course for the season defining moment when the nearly as plastic as Chelsea fans wrote a letter declining a contract extension as "inappropriate" and then sang "you don't know what your doing" at Wenger just before they ran off 12 straight without a loss

FYP

[ShayGuevara]

It is an encouraging sign, but it should be pointed out that a 5 point improvement over 114 possible points is only slightly larger than a statistical blip.  One or two bad results and we'll be back to where we were last season. 

A win wouldn't hurt.   

It helps us a bit that Arsenal have a tough match in the League Cup against Chelsea tomorrow Tuesday.
Then again, Arsenal get to play both that and Saturday's match against us at home, so it's a best possible scenario for them.

Last season, we drew 2-2 at the Emirates, so a win would be +2 on the results comparison and on the APLT too.

Another draw for us would be a decent result to be honest.

Or you could look at the glass half full and say if we made up 5pts in 1/4 of a season we could potentially make up 20 over the course of the season 

[ShayGuevara]

Here's a post I'm currently maintaining on another forum, thought It might be helpful here (click the photos for a better resolution):

---

Here's a table of the amount of points needed to finish in a particular position in the EPL during the last five seasons.



Since our aim for this season is to get into the CL, that means we need to get around 68-73 points, if we judge it by the last five seasons. Let's just say that we need 75 points. That equals to 14 more points compared to last season.

---

Comparing this season's results with last season's, so far:



*Wigan = Cardiff City
*Reading = Hull City
*QPR = Crystal Palace

Also, Goal differences are compared to how much we scored/conceded vs that team. A positive value means we scored more or conceded less, negative for the other way around. For example we scored one goal less against Villa but we also conceded one less.

---

Premier League mini Table. Arguably, The top teams in the EPL this season will be United, Chelsea, City, Arsenal, Spurs, Liverpool and Everton.

Last season one of our major weak points was that from the teams that finished above us, we've managed to gather only 10 points out of 36, and only one win. It's imperative that we do as well as possible against those teams because one win or loss in those games offsets us by 6 points vs that team.

For example, Manchester United finished 28 points above Liverpool last year. Because of our win vs United at Anfield this season compared to our loss on the previous one, we've already offset that difference by 6 points to 22.

This a comparison of last season's Mini Table with this ones:



---

Big improvement that.

[/quote]

What's interesting that I've just noticed on the head to head from last season is that if we can keep there or there about's by the Fulham game #26 we have a run in that were mostly win's last season.

Unfortunately our toughest run seem's to be around December/January were we could be playing twice a week a lot of the time and with a squad as small as ours that could be a real problem.

Hopefully though by game #26 we'll still be in the top 4, if we are you'd have to be confident we can secure at least 4th position with that run in.

[goalrushatgoodison]

Or you could look at the glass half full and say if we made up 5pts in 1/4 of a season we could potentially make up 20 over the course of the season 

Or from my point of view if you make up five points in a stretch of games where the max you can make up is twelve (as is the case so far this season) then extrapolated over a season where the max you can make up is 53 that would equal 22 pts improvement.

Problem with this is that nine games is just too small a sample. However it is still a very encouraging start, compared to last year, no matter what system you are using to analyse it.

[bosnian brigade]

Hey all, I have attached an excel version of the chart Deo posted earlier if anyone wants to update on their own or just to have as a reference.

The Pts column is yellow because I set parameters to automatically fill in 0=yellow, greater than 0=green and less than 0=red , so you just plug in the numbers and everything changes right away

Enjoy !

http://speedy.sh/7s78t/LFC-Equivalent-Game-and-Time-Chart.xlsx

[i6uuaq]

Here's a post I'm currently maintaining on another forum, thought It might be helpful here (click the photos for a better resolution):

---

Here's a table of the amount of points needed to finish in a particular position in the EPL during the last five seasons.



Since our aim for this season is to get into the CL, that means we need to get around 68-73 points, if we judge it by the last five seasons. Let's just say that we need 75 points. That equals to 14 more points compared to last season.

---

Comparing this season's results with last season's, so far:



*Wigan = Cardiff City
*Reading = Hull City
*QPR = Crystal Palace

Also, Goal differences are compared to how much we scored/conceded vs that team. A positive value means we scored more or conceded less, negative for the other way around. For example we scored one goal less against Villa but we also conceded one less.

---

Premier League mini Table. Arguably, The top teams in the EPL this season will be United, Chelsea, City, Arsenal, Spurs, Liverpool and Everton.

Last season one of our major weak points was that from the teams that finished above us, we've managed to gather only 10 points out of 36, and only one win. It's imperative that we do as well as possible against those teams because one win or loss in those games offsets us by 6 points vs that team.

For example, Manchester United finished 28 points above Liverpool last year. Because of our win vs United at Anfield this season compared to our loss on the previous one, we've already offset that difference by 6 points to 22.

This a comparison of last season's Mini Table with this ones:



---

Big improvement that.

[/quote]

Hey Deo,

Great table, it's very easy to use visually.

There's a mistake in game #8. You're compared our away result last year to our home result this year.

[Halcyon Lissome]

Hey Deo,

Great table, it's very easy to use visually.

There's a mistake in game #8. You're compared our away result last year to our home result this year.

The mistake is that he wrote Liverpool in as home when we were away - a minor error. Otherwise, in terms of the actual points, he's correct.

[Deo]

Yeah guys, I've noticed all the mistakes now and I'll rectify all of them after the game against Arsenal. I didn't bother to check because in the end the total was right, so I thought I didn't make any. Thanks for noting them!

Also, I'll have to add the Chelsea 2 - 1 City game to the mini league.

[JP-65]

Nice one from twitter: 38 game standings.

LFC with best goal difference, looking good for both GF & GA

Shows that Southampton's good defensive performance this season, actually started last season!

[Deo]

Ok, I updated it now after all and corrected the mistakes. Also, I've added columns for comparing our goal difference on a game-weekly basis. Do you think it might be a bit confusing? My thinking is showing that we scored 5 goals more and 6 goals less compared to the same stage last season is a better, but maybe I should at least change the 6 goals less scored to -6 more conceded?

Here's a post I'm currently maintaining on another forum, thought It might be helpful here (click the photos for a better resolution):

---

Here's a table of the amount of points needed to finish in a particular position in the EPL during the last five seasons.



Since our aim for this season is to get into the CL, that means we need to get around 68-73 points, if we judge it by the last five seasons. Let's just say that we need 75 points. That equals to 14 more points compared to last season.

---

Comparing this season's results with last season's, so far:



*Wigan = Cardiff City
*Reading = Hull City
*QPR = Crystal Palace

Also, Goal differences are compared to how much we scored/conceded vs that team. A positive value means we scored more or conceded less, negative for the other way around. For example we scored one goal less against Villa but we also conceded one less.

---

Premier League mini Table. Arguably, The top teams in the EPL this season will be United, Chelsea, City, Arsenal, Spurs, Liverpool and Everton.

Last season one of our major weak points was that from the teams that finished above us, we've managed to gather only 10 points out of 36, and only one win. It's imperative that we do as well as possible against those teams because one win or loss in those games offsets us by 6 points vs that team.

For example, Manchester United finished 28 points above Liverpool last year. Because of our win vs United at Anfield this season compared to our loss on the previous one, we've already offset that difference by 6 points to 22.

This a comparison of last season's Mini Table with this ones:



---

[Deo]

Nice one from twitter: 38 game standings.

LFC with best goal difference, looking good for both GF & GA

Shows that Southampton's good defensive performance this season, actually started last season!

Cool stat! One more win instead of a loss and we're in the CL!

Until the end of the year (not incuding QPR), we got a run where last year we had 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses, but our schedule this year is a lot tougher (look up my comparisons table above). If we manage to get the same amount of points (4W 3D 3L), we're in a much better position to improve for in the second half of the season.

[ShayGuevara]

Nice one from twitter: 38 game standings.

LFC with best goal difference, looking good for both GF & GA

Shows that Southampton's good defensive performance this season, actually started last season!

Excellent side, the system they play is the most effective in the league. Can only imagine what Pochettino could do with a higher calibre of player. Scouting and youth system are good also so they will keep on improving.

[PhaseOfPlay]

Excellent side, the system they play is the most effective in the league. Can only imagine what Pochettino could do with a higher calibre of player. Scouting and youth system are good also so they will keep on improving.

Amazing how Pocchetino is hailed as a great and innovative coach who is going places with his pressing game and direct attacks - while Graham Taylor was a long-ball merchant for doing the exact same thing with Watford

[ShayGuevara]

Amazing how Pocchetino is hailed as a great and innovative coach who is going places with his pressing game and direct attacks - while Graham Taylor was a long-ball merchant for doing the exact same thing with Watford

Sorry mate, I don't remember watching a lot of Graham Taylor's Watford but Pochettino's system is extremely effective I don't think anyone can deny that.

Pressing is key in the modern game you only have to look at the recent success of Southampton, Dortmund and Atletico to show how they are batting way above their level (in regards money spent) with system's designed on counter pressing (I think I'm right in saying that's how they all play).


 

[Brian Blessed]

Nice chart, Deo. The colours are nice. It makes last season look so grim, though! The only good thing is there is much room for improvement. Particularly between now and the middle of March vs same games.

[Funky_Gibbons]

Sorry mate, I don't remember watching a lot of Graham Taylor's Watford but Pochettino's system is extremely effective I don't think anyone can deny that.

Pressing is key in the modern game you only have to look at the recent success of Southampton, Dortmund and Atletico to show how they are batting way above their level (in regards money spent) with system's designed on counter pressing (I think I'm right in saying that's how they all play).


 

I think he needs a full year in the job before people judge him. So far the has had half of last season and nine games in this.

He and his players have been talking a about the double training sessions they have been doing and how much hard work they have put in to get them fit enough for that pressing game. By Christmas we could have a situation where the squad are dead on their feet.

Is it only a year ago WBA has a start like this and everyone was praising Steve Clark.

[Gnurglan]

Nice one from twitter: 38 game standings.

LFC with best goal difference, looking good for both GF & GA

Shows that Southampton's good defensive performance this season, actually started last season!

Also shows we're very close to 3rd. Which is good stuff. Will be difficult as there are so many teams on similar points, but we have the capacity. I think that's obvious now, whatever numbers we look at. Top four is within reach.

[Deo]

Nice chart, Deo. The colours are nice. It makes last season look so grim, though! The only good thing is there is much room for improvement. Particularly between now and the middle of March vs same games.

Thanks! That's what I aimed for really, to not just represent numbers but to have a visual representation of this season's improvement.

[redtel]

I think he needs a full year in the job before people judge him. So far the has had half of last season and nine games in this.

He and his players have been talking a about the double training sessions they have been doing and how much hard work they have put in to get them fit enough for that pressing game. By Christmas we could have a situation where the squad are dead on their feet.

Is it only a year ago WBA has a start like this and everyone was praising Steve Clarcke. 

This is the point about playing the pressing game over a full season.

A big squad is needed to allow players to rotate as it is so physically demanding.

Soton have had a summer break in the 38 game pts total quoted. Can they continue through a whole winter and spring?

Is the squad big enough with quality in reserve? I noticed they stopped pressing at Anfield after 35mins but came out flying towards the Anny Rd.
after H.T. Rafa has said  that his team would pick the right moment to press and there would be a rehearsed signal to announce a press.

Soton press for longer periods but do have these extra training sessions to help them cope.

Very useful chart Deo.

[JP-65]

Also shows we're very close to 3rd. Which is good stuff. Will be difficult as there are so many teams on similar points, but we have the capacity. I think that's obvious now, whatever numbers we look at. Top four is within reach.

I think it really shows how close it's going to be this season amongst the top group.  If you exclude the early part of last season, it's really, really tight!

Factor in the manager changes, the relative squad changes, etc…….it's going to make for a VERY interesting season, IMO

[Gnurglan]

I think it really shows how close it's going to be this season amongst the top group.  If you exclude the early part of last season, it's really, really tight!

Factor in the manager changes, the relative squad changes, etc…….it's going to make for a VERY interesting season, IMO

Indeed. Could be a very tight affair, between a handful of teams. Which makes our progress all the more interesting. The early part of last season is what stands out. Since then we've been good. Probably better than a lot of people think. In the 38 game league table above, only Arsenal and Utd are clearly ahead of us. Utd are currently behind us in the league and Arsenal are within a game.

A very interesting season...

[goalrushatgoodison]

Amazing how Pocchetino is hailed as a great and innovative coach who is going places with his pressing game and direct attacks - while Graham Taylor was a long-ball merchant for doing the exact same thing with Watford

You probably know this POP but Jack Charlton reckons he evented the pressing game only he called it putting em under pressure!

[JP-65]

Updated equivalent match & time comps:

Arsenal have moved ahead of United in the time comparison

[JP-65]

The scoring & defense stats:

Arsenal continue to have scored in all matches.  Both times we've been shut out, we'e lost

We continue to leak goals, slipping down the table here.

[JP-65]

PPG trend:  we continue to have our best start in the last 5 seasons, and are still over the run rate required for a CL spot, although it may be like last season and a higher number is required.

[the 92A]

PPG trend:  we continue to have our best start in the last 5 seasons, and are still over the run rate required for a CL spot, although it may be like last season and a higher number is required.

So a defeat to the league leaders doesn't mean we're doomed but all to play for in terms of a champions league place

[JP-65]

So a defeat to the league leaders doesn't mean we're doomed but all to play for in terms of a champions league place

For sure, but we're not looking so good here, it's a bit of a concern